Catalan election to return hung parliament: poll

Catalan election to return hung parliament: poll

By Sonya Dowsett

MADRID (Reuters) – An election in Catalonia will fail to conclusively resolve a political crisis over an independence drive in the region, the final surveys before the Dec. 21 vote showed on Friday.

The ballot will result in a hung parliament, a Metroscopia poll showed, with parties favoring unity with Spain tipped to gain a maximum of 62 seats and pro-secession factions 63, both short of a majority in the region’s 135-seat legislature.

Spain’s worst political crisis since its transition to democracy four decades ago erupted in October, when Madrid cracked down on an independence referendum it had declared illegal and took control of the wealthy northeastern region.

The standoff has bitterly divided society, led to a business exodus and tarnished Spain’s rosy economic prospects, with the central bank on Friday blaming events in Catalonia for a cut in its growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019.

Both the Metroscopia poll, published in El Pais, and a second survey in another newspaper, La Razon, predicted a record turnout for a Catalan election.

But the vote looks likely to trigger weeks of haggling between different parties to try to form a government.

Former Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont is campaigning from Brussels, where he moved shortly after he was fired by Madrid following a unilateral declaration of independence by the region.

With Friday the last day polls were permitted before the ballot, the El Pais survey – which questioned 3,300 people in Catalonia between Dec. 4 and Dec. 13 – showed his party winning 22 seats.

Pro-unity party Ciudadanos, which has backed the minority central government of Mariano Rajoy’s People’s Party (PP) in parliamentary votes, will win most seats, closely followed by pro-independence ERC.

But at a maximum of 36 for Ciudadanos and 33 for ERC, both fall far short of the 68 seats needed for a majority.

The survey’s inconclusive split between pro-unity and pro-independence parties would leave the regional offshoot of left-wing party Podemos, which supports unity but wants a referendum on independence, as potential kingmaker.

Further muddying the waters, its leader Xavier Domenech favors a left-wing alliance across parties that both back and reject independence.

The La Razon poll, which surveyed 1,000 Catalans also between Dec. 4 and Dec. 13, showed parties in favor of independence winning 66 seats and unity supporters 60, leaving the Catalan Podemos arm with nine.

(Editing by Paul Day and John Stonestreet)

Catalan separatists march in Brussels

Catalan separatists march in Brussels

By Clement Rossignol

BRUSSELS (Reuters) – Nearly 50,000 people marched through Brussels’ European quarter on Thursday in support of Catalan independence and the region’s president, who has avoided arrest in Spain by taking refuge in Belgium.

Before Carles Puigdemont addressed the crowd, many draped in Catalan flags, police estimated its size at 45,000. There were chants of “Puigdemont, President” from a generally good-natured throng, many of whom had traveled from Spain for the occasion.

Some carried placards criticizing the European Union for not pressuring Madrid. One sign showed the face of European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker with the question: “Democracy? Some defend it when it suits them. Shame on them.”

Gloria Cot, a clerk from Barcelona who had just arrived in by coach, said: “Brussels is a kind of a loudspeaker for us.

“It is a loudspeaker so that people can know that we really don’t have a 100 percent democracy in Spain and that Catalonia has always been subjected to problems with Spain.”

Nuria Salvat, a student from Tarragona in Catalonia, said she had come to demand freedom for “political prisoners” – members of Puigdemont’s administration held in jail in Spain – and to support Puigdemont himself, who faces jail if he returns.

“Spain,” she said, “has always treated us very badly.”

A short distance away in the EU executive’s headquarters, Juncker’s deputy Frans Timmermans told reporters he welcomed the “very positive atmosphere” of the demonstration, which took place as campaigning has got under way for a Catalan election which Madrid hopes can end the deadlock created by its refusal to recognize an independence vote Puigdemont held in September.

But, the former Dutch foreign minister said, there was no change to Commission policy that the dispute with the Barcelona authorities, now removed from office, remains an internal one in which the EU has no need to intervene because Spain’s democratic constitution is functioning in line with EU values.

Accusing Puigdemont and his allies of undermining the rule of law by choosing to ignore a Spanish constitutional ban on secession rather than trying to change the constitution, Timmermans said they were jeopardizing basic freedoms and noted there had been big rallies in Spain on both sides of the debate.

“If you do not agree with law, you can organize yourselves to change the law or the constitution,” he said. “What is not permissible under the rule of law is to just ignore the law.”

(Additional reporting and writing by Alastair Macdonald; editing by Mark Heinrich)

Catalan strike severs road links as secessionist leaders regroup

Catalan strike severs road links as secessionist leaders regroup

By Silvio Castellanos

BARCELONA, Spain (Reuters) – A general strike called by pro-independence campaigners in Catalonia severed transport links on Wednesday, as leaders of its secessionist movement sought to regain political momentum after failing to agree a joint ticket to contest an election.

Protesters shut down roads, causing huge tailbacks into Barcelona, and some public transport ran minimum services in response to calls for action by two civic groups — whose heads were imprisoned last month on sedition charges — and a labor union.

People stood across dozens of major highways in the region waving placards and chanting “freedom for political prisoners”, TV and video images showed, while minor scuffles were reported on social media as police attempted to move protesters.

While many smaller stores left their shutters closed, most larger shops and businesses in the region appeared to be open as normal.

An uphill task awaited the political heavyweights of the independence campaign, whose parties jointly ran Catalonia for the last two years until Madrid sacked the region’s government in response to its independence push.

Deposed Catalan president Carles Puigdemont’s center-right PDeCAT and the leftist ERC of former regional vice president Oriol Junqueras had until midnight on Tuesday to agree a new pact, but they failed to meet that deadline, meaning they will contest the Dec. 21 vote as separate parties.

The central government in Madrid called the election last month after assuming control of Catalonia following its parliament’s unilateral independence declaration.

Puigdemont is in self-imposed exile in Belgium, while Junqueras is in custody on charges of sedition, rebellion and misuse of public funds.

‘JUNCKER WON’T MEET ME’

Puigdemont, who faces the same charges and is the subject of a extradition request from Madrid, had ambitions to garner support for his independence campaign in the heartland of the European Union.

But that hope has fallen flat, and in an interview published on Wednesday he renewed criticism of the bloc’s executive.

“(EU Commission President Jean-Claude) Juncker welcomes mayors, governors … but he doesn’t want to meet me,” Puigdemont told Belgian Daily De Standaard.

“I’ve always been a convinced European … But the people who are running the EU now, are wrecking Europe … The gap between the Europe of the people and the official Europe is increasing.”

Catalonia’s secessionist push has plunged Spain into its worst political crisis in four decades, triggered a business exodus and reopened old wounds from the country’s civil war in the 1930s.

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, who has been unwavering in his opposition to any form of independence for Catalonia, said he hoped next month’s election would usher in “a period of calm” and business as usual for the region.

“I’m hoping for massive participation in the election.. and, after that, we’ll return to normality,” he said in the Madrid parliament building on Wednesday.

An opinion poll released on Sunday by Barcelona-based newspaper La Vanguardia showed Junqueras’ ERC could garner between 45 and 46 seats in Catalonia’s 135-strong regional assembly while Puigdemont’s PdeCat would win just 14 or 15.

In order to reach the 68-seat threshold for a majority, they would then have to form a parliamentary alliance with anti-capitalist CUP.

ERC and PDeCAT could still reach an agreement after the vote, but by standing together they could have held more seats, polls and projections from the 2015 election results showed.

Economy Minister Luis de Guindos told a banking conference in Madrid he hoped the election would revive the Catalan success story “during which it has enjoyed great economic and cultural prosperity together with a high level of self-governance.”

For some Catalans who ignored Wednesday’s strike — called by the CSC union and supported by civic groups Asamblea Nacional Catalana (ANC) and Omnium Cultural — that moment is already overdue.

“Why should I strike, nobody is going to raise my salary. In this world we have to work and not argue so much,” Jose Luis, a construction worker, told Reuters TV as he walked through Barcelona on his way to work.

“The politicians should work more and stop their silliness.”

(Additional reporting by Paul Day in Madrid and Robert-Jan Bartunek in Brussels; writing by John Stonestreet; editing by Paul Day)

Crisis over Catalan independence nears crucial few days

Crisis over Catalan independence nears crucial few days

By Paul Day and Angus MacSwan

MADRID (Reuters) – Catalan separatist leader Carles Puigdemont is likely to go to Madrid on Thursday to explain his position on independence from Spain and try to stop the national government imposing direct control on the region.

The timing of Puigdemont’s appearance before the Senate suggests he is now unlikely to formally declare independence or call a snap regional election on Thursday, as many analysts had expected. He could still do this on Friday before the Senate strips him of his powers and imposes direct rule from Madrid.

An appearance at a Senate debate could pit Puigdemont face to face with Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy who is vehemently opposed to independence for Catalonia.

The political crisis, Spain’s worst since democracy was restored four decades ago, has become increasingly fraught at the prospect of civil disobedience and even confrontation if Madrid goes ahead with taking direct control of Catalonia in the next few days.

The conflict has caused deep resentment elsewhere in Spain, dented the prosperous region’s economy, and worried other European leaders who see it as fanning separatist sentiment elsewhere on the continent.

Secessionists in Catalonia say an independence referendum on Oct. 1 — which attracted a 43 percent turnout but was mostly boycotted by those Catalans who want to remain in Spain — has given them a mandate for statehood.

The Madrid government declared the referendum illegal and has spurned Puigdemont’s calls for dialogue, instead opting to take control of a region which now has a large measure of autonomy.

It has, however, invited Puigdemont to debate in the Senate.

“President Puigdemont is willing to attend the Senate to explain the allegations, explain his political position, and explain how we have arrived here,” a lawmaker for PDCat (Catalan Democratic Party) said on Wednesday.

Thursday would be the most convenient day, he said.

However, Puigdemont is unlikely to make much headway against a government which vehemently opposes full independence and is using all its legal and political power to stop it.

On Friday, the Senate is due to strip him of his powers and impose direct rule, although the actual steps could be taken gradually in order not to inflame the situation.

ROCK AND A HARD PLACE

Catalonia said on Monday it was confident its officials, including the police, would defy attempts by Madrid to enforce direct rule.

A senior Catalan politician said on Tuesday secessionist leaders may call a snap election to try to break the deadlock. The Catalan parliament meets on Thursday and Friday.

Some Spanish political and business leaders, along with most Catalan newspapers, have urged Puigdemont to call a regional election before he is stripped of his authority. They say direct rule from Madrid would be a humiliation for Catalonia and pose a serious risk of civil unrest.

Calling an election could either strengthen Puigdemont’s mandate if pro-independence parties won, or allow him a graceful exit if they did not.

An opinion poll published by the El Periodico newspaper on Sunday showed a snap election would probably have results similar to the last ballot, in 2015, when a coalition of pro-independence parties formed a minority government.

Justice Minister Rafael Catala said that if Puigdemont appeared before the Senate, it would help resolve the crisis. Madrid has so far refused to meet him until he drops his call for independence.

“If his appearance is within the constitution and the law we’ll be delighted…but if it’s just to ratify his position on Catalonia’s independence, sadly we will not be able to do anything else than continuing with the measures already set by the government,” Catala said.

Analyst Antonio Barroso of Teneo Intelligence said Puigdemont was caught between radicals and moderates in the Catalan establishment.

Radical elements want him to make the Catalan parliament declare independence unilaterally on Thursday or Friday. This would provoke a tough government reaction, playing into their hands, he said.

More moderate voices have said that if he calls an early election, he could stop the imposition of direct rule.

Puigdemont is likely to repeat his call for a dialogue between the Catalan authorities and Madrid and remain ambiguous on his next steps, Barroso said.

“Both sides are engaged in a game to tag each other with the blame for what happens next,” he said.

(Reporting by Paul Day,; Writing by Angus MacSwan; Editing by Julien Toyer and Richard Balmforth)

Spanish court suspends Catalan parliament session, throwing independence call in doubt

A woman reacts as National Police officers leave their hotel in Reus, south of Barcelona, Spain October 5, 2017. REUTERS/Vincent West

By Angus Berwick and Carlos Ruano

BARCELONA/MADRID (Reuters) – Spain’s Constitutional Court on Thursday ordered the suspension of Monday’s session of the regional Catalan parliament, throwing its plans to declare unilateral independence from Spain into doubt.

There was no immediate reaction from Catalan leaders who held an independence referendum on Sunday that was banned by Madrid and marked by violent scenes at electoral stations where Spanish police sought to hinder voting.

The suspension order further aggravated one of the biggest political crises to hit Spain since the establishment of democracy following the death of General Francisco Franco in 1975. But it helped Spanish markets hit in recent days by the uncertainty.

The court said it had agreed to consider a legal challenge filed by the anti-secessionist Catalan Socialist Party.

Spanish shares and bonds, which have been hit by the political turmoil in Catalonia, strengthened after the news of the Constitutional Court’s decision.

The main IBEX stock index rose 2.3 percent, on track for its biggest daily gain in a month, and Spain’s 10-year bond yield was set for its biggest daily fall since April.

Spain’s Economy Minister Luis de Guindos told Reuters in an interview the turmoil was damaging Catalonia.

“This is generating uncertainty that is paralyzing all investment projects in Catalonia. I’m convinced that, right now, not one international or national investor will take part in a new investment project until this is cleared up,” he said.

Spain’s fifth-largest bank, Sabadell, will consider on Thursday whether to shift its headquarters away from Catalonia in the first major sign that the wealthy region’s push for independence from Spain could scare away big business.

Caixabank, Spain’s third largest lender by market capitalization, is also considering moving its legal base outside Catalonia, a source with knowledge of the situation said. A spokesman for the bank said no decision had been taken on a move.

Opinion polls conducted before the vote suggested a minority of around 40 percent of residents in Catalonia backed independence. But a majority wanted a referendum to be held, and the violent police crackdown angered Catalans across the divide.

“GREATER EVILS”

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy called on Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont on Thursday to abandon plans to unilaterally declare independence from Spain or risk “greater evils”.

In an interview with Spanish news agency EFE, Rajoy said the solution to the Catalan crisis was a prompt return to legality and “a statement as soon as possible that there will not be a unilateral declaration of independence, because that will also avoid greater evils,” Rajoy said.

He did not elaborate but ruling party lawmakers say that Rajoy, a conservative who has taken a hard line on Catalan independence, is considering the unprecedented step of dissolving the Catalan parliament and triggering regional elections.

Catalan officials released preliminary referendum results showing 90 percent support in favor of breaking away. But turnout was only about 43 percent as Catalans who favor remaining part of Spain mainly boycotted the ballot and many polling stations were closed.

Puigdemont said he was not afraid of being arrested for organizing Sunday’s banned referendum.

“Personally, I am not afraid of that,” Puigdemont said in an interview in the German daily Bild, published on Thursday, when asked about his possible arrest.

“And I’m not surprised any more about what the Spanish government is doing. My arrest is also possible, which would be a barbaric step.”

Neither the Spanish government nor the judiciary has threatened to arrest Puigdemont, though Madrid accuses him of breaking the law by ignoring a Constitutional Court ruling forbidding the referendum from going ahead.

On Wednesday, in a televised address, Puigdemont renewed his call for international mediation but said the results of the referendum would have to be applied.

Puigdemont has not explained the scope of his proposal for international mediation, whether it would envisage a compromise short of independence or deal only with divorce arrangements.

Rajoy has ruled out international mediation as a format for resolving the future of Catalonia, offering instead all-party Spanish political talks to find a solution, on the condition independence is taken off the table.

Sunday’s crackdown by Spanish police, Rajoy’s hardline stance and an uncharacteristically strong intervention this week by Spain’s King Felipe VI seems to have deepened Catalonia’s resolve to continue with the project.

“We will go as far as people want it. But without the use of force. We were always a peaceful movement. And I am sure that Spain will not be able to ignore the will of so many people,” Puigdemont told Bild.

(Additional reporting by Paul Day, Andres Gonzalez, Rodrigo de Miguel; Writing by Adrian Croft; Editing by Julien Toyer and Ralph Boulton)

Catalan leader says not afraid of arrest over independence: report

Catalan President Carles Puigdemont is seen on a TV screen at a bar during a televised statement in Barcelona, Spain, October 4, 2017. REUTERS/Yves Herman

MADRID (Reuters) – The leader of Catalonia, Carles Puigdemont, said he was not afraid of being arrested for organizing a banned referendum on the region’s independence from Spain, which went ahead on Sunday despite Madrid using force to try to stop people voting.

Spanish riot police used truncheons and rubber bullets on voters, drawing worldwide criticism and tipping Spain into its biggest constitutional crisis in decades.

Puigdemont’s government is to ask the regional parliament on Monday to declare independence, after his officials released preliminary referendum results showing 90 percent support in favor of breaking away.

Turnout was only about 43 percent as Catalans who favor remaining part of Spain mainly boycotted the ballot.

“Personally, I am not afraid of that,” Puigdemont said in an interview in the German daily Bild, published on Thursday, when asked about his possible arrest.

“And I’m not surprised anymore about what the Spanish government is doing. My arrest is also possible, which would be a barbaric step.”

Neither the Spanish government nor the judiciary has threatened to arrest Puigdemont, though Madrid accuses him of breaking the law by ignoring a Constitutional Court ruling forbidding the referendum from going ahead.

Puigdemont has said the referendum proved the will of the people was to leave Spain and has vowed to continue with secession, despite Madrid’s insistence it won’t happen.

On Wednesday, in a televised address, Puigdemont renewed his call for international mediation but said the results of the referendum would have to be applied. [nL8N1MF20E]

The confrontation has raised fears among investors of unrest in Catalonia, which accounts for a fifth of the Spanish economy. A former principality, the region has its own language and culture and has long complained that it pays more to Madrid in taxes than it receives each year from central funding.

The crisis in the euro zone’s fourth-biggest economy has hurt Spanish bond and stock markets. The nation’s borrowing costs hit a seven-month high on Thursday ahead of a government bond auction that will test investor confidence. [nL8N1MG0IB]

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has offered to open multi-party talks that could cut a better tax and constitutional deal for Catalonia in return for the region giving up on independence.

But his government has said the region must “return to the path of law” before negotiations can go ahead. [nL4N1MF2K8]

Sunday’s crackdown by Spanish police, Rajoy’s hardline stance and an uncharacteristically strong intervention this week by Spain’s King Felipe VI seems to have deepened Catalonia’s resolve to continue with the project.

“We will go as far as people want it. But without the use of force. We were always a peaceful movement. And I am sure that Spain will not be able to ignore the will of so many people,” Puigdemont told Bild.

Opinion polls conducted before the vote suggested a minority of around 40 percent of residents in Catalonia backed independence. But a majority wanted a referendum to be held, and the violent police crackdown angered Catalans across the divide.

(Reporting by Paul Day; Editing by Janet Lawrence)