Tag Archives: Consumer Spending

Americans job market tightening, inflation steadily rising

FILE PHOTO: A help wanted sign is posted on the door of a gas station in Encinitas California

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week, pointing to sustained labor strength even as economic growth appears to have slowed early in the first quarter.

Other data on Thursday showed a rise in the prices of imported goods in February amid U.S. dollar weakness, bolstering expectations that inflation will pick up this year. Labor market strength and a steady increase in price pressures could allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next week.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 226,000 for the week ended March 10, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims decreased to 210,000 during the week ended Feb. 24, which was the lowest level since December 1969.

Last week’s drop in claims was in line with economists’ expectations. It was the 158th straight week that claims remained below the 300,000 threshold, which is associated with a strong labor market. That is the longest such stretch since 1970, when the labor market was much smaller.

Fed officials consider the labor market to be near or a little beyond full employment. The unemployment rate is at a 17-year low of 4.1 percent.

The economy created 313,000 jobs in February. Economists are optimistic that tightening labor market conditions will boost wage growth in the second half of this year.

That should help to underpin consumer spending, which slowed at the start of the year. Data on Wednesday showed retail sales fell in February for a third straight month.

Gross domestic product growth estimates for the first quarter are as low as a 1.7 percent annualized rate. Reports on home sales and industrial production in January have also been weak. The economy grew at a 2.5 percent pace in the fourth quarter.

The U.S. dollar gained against a basket of currencies after Thursday’s data while U.S. stock index futures moved higher. Prices of U.S. Treasuries were trading mostly lower. Diminishing labor market slack is also expected to help boost inflation toward the U.S. central bank’s 2 percent target.

IMPORTED CAPITAL GOODS PRICES RISE

In another report, the Labor Department said import prices increased 0.4 percent last month after accelerating 0.8 percent in January. That lifted the year-on-year increase in import prices to 3.5 percent from January.

Last month, prices for imported capital goods jumped 0.6 percent. That was the biggest increase since April 2008 and followed an unchanged reading in January.

Prices of imported consumer goods excluding automobiles rose 0.5 percent, the largest gain since January 2014, after edging up 0.1 percent in the prior month. These price increases likely reflected the dollar’s depreciation against the currencies of the United States’ main trading partners, and will eventually filter through to core producer and consumer inflation.

Imported petroleum prices fell 0.5 percent in February, the first drop in seven months, after rising 3.0 percent in January. Import prices excluding petroleum surged 0.5 percent after a similar gain in January.

The price of goods imported from China rose 0.2 percent. Prices for imports from China increased 0.3 percent in the 12 months through February, the biggest advance since June 2014.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao)

Utilities, mining boost U.S. industrial production

Robotic arms spot welds on the chassis of a Ford Transit Van under assembly at the Ford Claycomo Assembly Plant in Claycomo, Missouri April 30, 2014.

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. industrial production increased more than expected in December as unseasonably cold weather at the end of the month boosted demand for heating, but manufacturing output barely rose, pointing to moderate growth in the industrial sector.

Strong demand for utilities bolsters expectations of an acceleration in consumer spending in the fourth quarter, which could prompt analysts to raise their economic growth estimates for the October-December period.

The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday industrial output surged 0.9 percent last month also buoyed by robust gains in mining production after slipping 0.1 percent in November.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast industrial production advancing 0.4 percent in December. Industrial production rose at an annual rate of 8.2 percent in the fourth quarter, the biggest gain since the second quarter of 2010.

For all of 2017, industrial output rose 1.8 percent, the first and largest increase since 2014.

The industrial sector is being supported by a strengthening global economy and a weakening dollar, which is helping to make U.S. exports more competitive relative to those of the nation’s main trading partners. A survey early this month showed an acceleration in factory activity in December, with a measure of new orders recording its best reading since January 2004.

The dollar maintained gains versus a basket of currencies after the data, while prices for U.S. Treasuries were little changed.

Mining production increased 1.6 percent in December amid a rebound in oil and gas well drilling. Utilities production accelerated 5.6 percent last month after declining 3.1 percent in November.

Bitter cold gripped a large part of the country at the end of December. The surge in utilities demand added to strong December retail sales in supporting expectations of an acceleration in consumer spending in the fourth quarter.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, increased at a 2.2 percent annualized rate in the third quarter.

But manufacturing output gained only 0.1 percent in December, putting a wrinkle on the report, after rising 0.3 percent in the prior month. Manufacturing production jumped 1.5 percent in October.

Manufacturing output was last month held back by a 1.5 percent drop in the production of primary metals. Motor vehicle and parts production increased 2.0 percent. Manufacturing production rose at a 7.0 percent rate in the fourth quarter.

With output accelerating last month, capacity utilization, a measure of how fully industries are deploying their resources, increased to 77.9 percent, the highest since February 2015, from 77.2 percent in November.

Capacity utilization is 2 percentage points below its long-run average. Officials at the Fed tend to look at capacity use as a signal of how much “slack” remains in the economy and how much room there is for growth to accelerate before it becomes inflationary.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

U.S. consumer spending barely rises; core inflation moderates

FILE PHOTO: New cars are shown for sale at a Chevrolet dealership in National City, California, U.S., June 30, 2017. REUTERS/Mike Blake/File Photo

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. consumer spending barely rose in August likely as Hurricane Harvey weighed on auto sales and annual inflation increased at its slowest pace since late 2015, pointing to moderation in economic growth in the third quarter.

The Commerce Department said on Friday consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, edged up 0.1 percent last month also as unseasonably mild temperatures reduced demand for utilities. That followed an unrevised 0.3 percent increase in July.

Last month’s gain in consumer spending was in line with economists’ expectations. When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending slipped 0.1 percent in August, the first drop since January.

The government said the data reflected the effects of Hurricane Harvey. However, it could not separately quantify the total impact of Harvey on the data. It said it made adjustments to estimates where source data were not yet available or did not fully reflect the effects of the storm.

The report was the latest suggestion that Harvey, together with Hurricane Irma, would dent economic growth in the third quarter. The economy grew at a brisk 3.1 percent annualized rate in the second quarter, with consumers doing the heavy lifting.

Harvey, which tore through Texas in late August, has undercut industrial production, homebuilding and home sales. Further declines are expected after Irma slammed Florida in early September.

Economists estimate the storms could slice off as much as six-tenths of a percentage point from third-quarter GDP growth. However, a pick-up in output is expected in the fourth quarter as communities ravaged by the hurricanes rebuild.

Inflation remained benign last month. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy rose 0.1 percent. The so-called core PCE has increased by the same margin for four straight months.

As a result, the annual increase in the core PCE price index slowed to 1.3 percent after advancing 1.4 percent in July. That was the smallest year-on-year increase since November 2015. The core PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure and has a 2 percent target.

The U.S. central bank signaled last week it anticipated one more interest rate increase by the end of the year. On Tuesday, Chair Janet Yellen said the Fed needed to continue gradual rate hikes despite uncertainty about the path of inflation. It has increased borrowing costs twice this year.

Harvey also probably impacted on income in August.

Personal income rose 0.2 percent last month after increasing 0.3 percent in July. Savings fell to $522.9 billion in August from $524.8 billion in the prior month.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

U.S. consumer sentiment rises to seven-month high: University of Michigan

A shopper walks down an aisle in a newly opened Walmart Neighborhood Market in Chicago in this September 21, 2011 file photo. REUTERS/Jim Young/Files

(Reuters) – U.S. consumer sentiment improved to its strongest level in seven months in early August, reflecting confidence in the outlook for the economy and in personal finances as the U.S. stock market holds near record highs, a key survey showed on Friday.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose to 97.6 in the first half of August from 93.4 the month before, which was an eight-month low. The result exceeded expectations for a reading of 94, according to a Reuters poll.

Whether that optimism holds in the weeks ahead, however, is a major question following recent events stemming from a white nationalist rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, said Richard Curtin, chief economist for the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers. There were not enough survey interviews conducted following the protests, in which one woman died as white nationalists clashed with counter-protesters, to assess how much the events might weaken sentiment.

Curtin said the backlash over Charlottesville and U.S. President Donald Trump’s response could weigh on subsequent survey readings.

Trump has blamed the Charlottesville violence on not just the white nationalist rally organizers but also the counter-protesters, and said there were “very fine people” among both groups. His remarks drew rebukes from Republican and Democrat lawmakers as well as business leaders and U.S. allies.

“The fallout is likely to reverse the improvement in economic expectations recorded across all political affiliations in early August,” Curtin said. “Moreover, the Charlottesville aftermath is more likely to weaken the economic expectations of Republicans, since prospects for Trump’s economic policy agenda have diminished.”

FALLOUT FROM CHARLOTTESVILLE

The private sector has reacted to Trump’s remarks as well. Earlier this week, several chief executives quit Trump’s two business advisory groups in protest, resulting in the president disbanding the groups altogether.

Moreover, speculation emerged that key officials, notably director of National Economic Council Gary Cohn, could resign due to Trump’s controversial comments.

Cohn is seen leading the White House’s effort on tax reform and is a front-runner to possibly succeed Janet Yellen as head of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

On Thursday, rumors on social media of Cohn resigning spurred a sell-off on Wall Street and buying of U.S. Treasury bonds — a safe-haven market instrument in times of uncertainty — as traders feared Trump’s economic agenda would stall.

CURRENT, FUTURE DIVERGE

The rebound in University of Michigan’s overall consumer reading in early August was due to a jump in the survey’s expectations component. It rose to 89.0 from 80.5 in July.

On the other hand, the survey’s current conditions measure fell to 111.0 from 113.4 in late July.

“I would say that the economy is in good shape and is not especially sensitive to the latest political buzz, but how much of a hit confidence takes remains to be seen,” Stephen Stanley, Amherst Pierpoint Securities’ chief economist, wrote in a research note.

(Reporting By Dan Burns; Editing by Meredith Mazzilli and Chizu Nomiyama)

U.S. first quarter economic growth revised up on jump in consumer spending

FILE PHOTO: A customer exits after shopping at a Macy's store in the Brooklyn borough of New York, U.S., on May 11, 2017. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo

By Lindsay Dunsmuir

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. economy slowed less than feared in the first quarter due largely to a jump in consumer spending, providing a slightly more encouraging outlook for growth this year.

Gross domestic product increased at a 1.4 percent annual rate instead of the 1.2 percent reported last month, the Commerce Department said in its final assessment for the period on Thursday.

The reading was the worst since the second quarter of 2016 but above analysts’ expectations, easing fears the economy had been hobbled at the start of this year. The government had pegged first-quarter growth at a paltry 0.7 percent in its first estimate in April.

“The upward revision occurred even with a downward revision to the inventory data, which has favorable implications for the adding up of second-quarter growth,” said Daniel Silver, an economist at J.P. Morgan.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected GDP growth to be unrevised at 1.2 percent in the first quarter. The economy tends to underperform in that period relative to the rest of the year due to perennial issues with the calculation of the data. The government has said it is working to resolve those issues.

The U.S. dollar <.DXY> briefly edged up after the release of the data before retracing earlier losses against a basket of currencies. Prices of U.S. Treasuries were trading lower and stocks on Wall Street were down sharply.

First-quarter economic growth was boosted by an upward revision to consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Consumer spending rose at a 1.1 percent pace, the weakest reading since the second quarter of 2013 but almost double the 0.6 percent reported last month.

Despite the upward revision to GDP, the Trump administration’s stated target of swiftly boosting annual U.S. economic growth to 3 percent remains a challenge.

A sustained average growth rate of 3 percent has not been achieved in the United States since the 1990s. The U.S. economy has grown an average 2 percent since 2000 and it expanded only 1.6 percent in 2016, which was the weakest growth in five years.

President Donald Trump’s economic program of tax cuts, regulatory rollbacks and infrastructure spending has yet to get off the ground five months into his presidency.

Details of the White House’s tax plan remain sparse as Trump advisers attempt to win over fiscally conservative Republicans in Congress who want any changes to ultimately be revenue-neutral.

Initial signs that economic growth re-accelerated sharply in the second quarter have also faltered in the face of recent disappointing data on retail sales, manufacturing production and inflation. Housing data has also been mixed.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve is currently forecasting annualized growth of 2.9 percent in the second quarter.

LABOR MARKET STILL STRONG

Other data on Thursday showed the job market was still flashing a green light.

The Labor Department reported that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits last week rose slightly, but the underlying trend remained consistent with a tight labor market. The unemployment rate fell to a 16-year low in May.

U.S. exporters also flexed more muscle in the first quarter. Exports for the period were revised to show a 7.0 percent rate of growth from the previously reported 5.8 percent. Exports in the fourth quarter fell at a rate of 4.5 percent.

Business spending on equipment was revised to show it increasing at a rate of 7.8 percent in the January-March period rather than the 7.2 percent previously estimated.

Businesses accumulated inventories at a rate of $2.6 billion in the first quarter, rather than the $4.3 billion reported last month. Inventory investment rose at a rate of $49.6 billion in the fourth quarter of last year.

Inventories subtracted 1.11 percentage point from GDP growth in the first quarter instead of the 1.07 percentage point previously reported.

The government also reported that corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments fell at an annual rate of 2.7 percent in the first quarter after rising at a 2.3 percent pace in the prior three months.

(Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir; Editing by Paul Simao)

U.S. economy grows at tepid 1.2 percent; business spending softens

FILE PHOTO - A family shops at the Wal-Mart Neighborhood Market in Bentonville, Arkansas, U.S. on June 4, 2015. REUTERS/Rick Wilking/File Photo

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. economy slowed less than initially thought in the first quarter, but there are signs it could struggle to rebound sharply in the second quarter amid slowing business investment and moderate consumer spending.

Gross domestic product increased at a 1.2 percent annual rate instead of the 0.7 percent pace reported last month, the Commerce Department said on Friday in its second GDP estimate for the first three months of the year.

“The second estimate paints a better picture about the degree of slowing in activity at the start of the year, but the main concern about soft growth in private consumption remains,” said Michael Gapen, chief economist at Barclays in New York.

That was the worst performance since the first quarter of 2016 and followed a 2.1 percent rate of expansion in the fourth quarter. The government revised up its initial estimate of consumer spending growth, but said inventory investment was far smaller than previously reported.

The first-quarter weakness is a blow to President Donald Trump’s ambitious goal to sharply boost economic growth rates. During the 2016 presidential campaign Trump had vowed to lift annual GDP growth to 4 percent, though administration officials now see 3 percent as more realistic.

Trump has proposed a range of measures to spur faster economic growth, including corporate and individual tax cuts. But analysts are skeptical that fiscal stimulus, if it materializes, will fire up the economy given weak productivity and labor shortages in some areas.

The economy’s sluggishness, however, is probably not a true reflection of its health. GDP for the first three months of the year tends to underperform because of difficulties with the calculation of data.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected GDP growth would be revised up to a 0.9 percent rate.

Prices of U.S. Treasuries trimmed gains and U.S. stock indexes slightly pared losses after the data. The dollar gained modestly against a basket of currencies.

While GDP growth appears to have regained speed early in the second quarter, hopes of a sharp rebound have been tempered by weak business spending, a modest increase in retail sales last month, a widening of the goods trade deficit and decreases in inventory investment.

EQUIPMENT SPENDING SLOWING

In a second report on Friday, the Commerce Department said non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, were unchanged in April for a second straight month.

Shipments of these so-called core capital goods dipped 0.1 percent after rising 0.2 percent in March. Core capital goods shipments are used to calculate equipment spending in the government’s gross domestic product measurement.

The GDP report also showed an acceleration in business spending equipment was not as fast as previously estimated. Spending on equipment rose at a 7.2 percent rate in the first quarter rather than the 9.1 percent reported last month.

Growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose at a 0.6 percent rate instead of the previously reported 0.3 percent pace. That was still the slowest pace since the fourth quarter of 2009 and followed the fourth quarter’s robust 3.5 percent growth rate.

Businesses accumulated inventories at a rate of $4.3 billion in the last quarter, rather than the $10.3 billion reported last month. Inventory investment increased at a $49.6 billion rate in the October-December period.

Inventories subtracted 1.07 percentage point from GDP growth instead of the 0.93 percentage point estimated last month.

The government also reported that corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments fell at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the first quarter, hurt by legal settlements, after rising at a 2.3 percent pace in the previous three months.

Penalties imposed by the government on the U.S. subsidiaries of Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank related to the sale of mortgage-backed securities reduced financial corporate profits by $5.6 billion in the first quarter.

In addition, a fine levied on the U.S. subsidiary of Volkswagen <VOWG_p.DE> related to violations of U.S. environmental regulations cut $4.3 billion from nonfinancial corporate profits.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao)

Consumer spending slows; inflation pushing higher

A customer shops at a Walmart Supercenter in Rogers, Arkansas June 6, 2013. REUTERS/Rick Wilking

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. consumer spending barely rose in February amid delays in the payment of income tax refunds, but the biggest annual increase in inflation in nearly five years supported expectations of further interest rate hikes this year.

The Commerce Department said on Friday consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, edged up 0.1 percent. That was the smallest gain since August and followed an unrevised 0.2 percent rise in January.

Economists had expected a 0.2 percent increase.

The government delayed the issuing of tax refunds this year as part of efforts to combat fraud. Spending last month was held back by a 0.1 percent dip in purchases of big-ticket items like automobiles. While unseasonably warm weather reduced households’ heating bills, it restricted spending last month.

Weak consumer spending suggested that economic growth slowed further in the first quarter. Gross domestic product increased at a 2.1 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter, stepping down from the July-September quarter’s brisk 3.5 percent pace.

Despite signs of moderate growth, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates at least twice more this year. The U.S. central bank raised its benchmark overnight interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point this month.

Prices for U.S. Treasuries fell on the data, while the dollar was little changed against a basket of currencies. U.S. stock index futures were slightly lower.

With consumer confidence at 16-year highs and labor market tightness pushing up wage growth, the moderation in spending is likely to be temporary. Even with economic growth slowing at the start of the year, inflation is rising.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index gained 0.1 percent last month after jumping 0.4 percent in January. That lifted the year-on-year rate of increase in the PCE price index to 2.1 percent, the biggest gain since April 2012. The PCE price index rose 1.9 percent in January.

Excluding food and energy, the so-called core PCE price index increased 0.2 percent last month after rising 0.3 percent in January. In the 12 months through February, the core PCE price index increased 1.8 percent after a similar gain in January.

The core PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure and is running below its 2 percent target. Inflation is now in the upper end of the range that Fed officials in March felt would be reached this year.

Rising price pressures are also eating into consumer spending. When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending fell 0.1 percent in February after declining 0.2 percent in January.

That suggests a sharp deceleration in the pace of consumer spending after a robust 3.5 percent growth rate in the fourth quarter.

Personal income rose 0.4 percent last month after advancing 0.5 percent in January. Wages increased 0.5 percent, the biggest gain in five months.

Income at the disposal of households after accounting for inflation increased 0.2 percent after dipping 0.1 percent in January. Savings rose to a five-month high of $808.0 billion from $770.9 billion in January.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

Fourth-quarter economic growth revised higher, boosted by consumer spending

Commuters wait to ride New York City Subway in New York, December 12, 2013. REUTERS/Eric Thayer

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. economic growth slowed less than previously reported in the fourth quarter as robust consumer spending spurred the largest increase in imports in two years.

Gross domestic product increased at a 2.1 percent annualized rate instead of the previously reported 1.9 percent pace, the Commerce Department said on Thursday in its third GDP estimate for the period. The economy grew at a 3.5 percent rate in the third quarter.

The government also said that corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter after rising at a 6.7 percent pace in the previous three months.

Profits were held back by a $4.95 billion settlement between the U.S. subsidiary of Volkswagen AG <VOWG_p.DE> and the U.S. federal and state governments for violation of environmental regulations.

Data on trade as well as consumer and construction spending suggest that economic growth moderated further at the start of 2017. The Atlanta Federal Reserve is forecasting GDP rising at a rate of 1.0 percent in the first quarter.

With the labor market near full employment, the data likely understate the health of the economy. GDP tends to be weaker in the first quarter because of calculation issues the government has acknowledged and is trying to resolve.

A separate report from the Labor Department on Thursday showed initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 258,000 for the week ended March 25.

Claims have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with a healthy labor market for 108 straight weeks. That is the longest stretch since 1970 when the labor market was smaller.

The economy grew 1.6 percent for all of 2016, its worst performance since 2011, after expanding 2.6 percent in 2015.

Prices of U.S. government debt fell after the data. U.S. stock index futures pared losses, as did the U.S. dollar <.DXY> against a basket of currencies.

STRONG IMPORT GROWTH The moderate economic expansion poses a challenge to President Donald Trump, who has vowed to boost annual growth to 4 percent by slashing taxes, increasing infrastructure spending and cutting regulations. The Trump administration has offered few details on its economic policies.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected fourth-quarter GDP would be revised up to a 2.0 percent rate.

Growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, was revised up to a 3.5 percent rate in the fourth quarter. It was previously reported to have risen at a 3.0 percent rate.

Some of the increase in demand was satiated with imports, which increased at a 9.0 percent rate. That was the biggest rise since the fourth quarter of 2014 and was an upward revision from the 8.5 percent pace reported last month.

Exports declined more than previously estimated, leaving a trade deficit that subtracted 1.82 percentage point from GDP growth instead of the previously reported 1.70 percentage points.

There was an upward revision to inventory investment. Businesses accumulated inventories at a rate of $49.6 billion in the last quarter, instead of the previously reported $46.2 billion. Inventory investment added 1.01 percentage point to GDP growth, up from the 0.94 percentage point estimated last month.

Business investment was revised lower to reflect a more modest pace of spending on intellectual property, which increased at a 1.3 percent rate instead of the previously estimated 4.5 percent rate.

There were no revisions to spending on equipment. Investment in nonresidential structures was revised to show it falling at a less steep 1.9 percent pace in the fourth quarter. It was previously reported to have declined at a 4.5 percent rate.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao)

U.S. retail sales weakest in six months; inflation firming

Shoppers ride escalators at the Beverly Center mall in Los Angeles, California November 8, 2013. REUTERS/David McNew

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. retail sales recorded their smallest increase in six months in February as households cut back on motor vehicle purchases and discretionary spending, the latest indication that the economy lost further momentum in the first quarter.

Other data on Wednesday showed a steady increase in inflation, with the consumer price index posting its biggest year-on-year increase in nearly five years in February. Firming inflation could allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates on Wednesday despite signs of slowing domestic demand.

“Nothing here to suggest the Fed shouldn’t raise interest rates at the policy meeting that concludes later today,” said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics in Toronto.

The Commerce Department said retail sales edged up 0.1 percent last month, the weakest reading since August. January’s retail sales were revised up to show a 0.6 percent rise instead of the previously reported 0.4 percent advance.

Sales were likely held back by delays in issuing tax refunds this year as part of efforts by the government to combat fraud. Compared to February last year retail sales were up 5.7 percent.

February’s retail sales gain was in line with economists’ expectations. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales rose 0.1 percent after an upwardly revised 0.8 percent jump in January.

These so-called core retail sales, which correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product, were previously reported to have increased 0.4 percent in January.

In a separate report, the Labor Department said its Consumer Price Index ticked up 0.1 percent last month as a drop in gasoline prices offset increases in the cost of food and rental accommodation. That was the weakest reading in the CPI since July and followed a 0.6 percent jump in January.

In the 12 months through February, the CPI accelerated 2.7 percent, the biggest year-on-year gain since March 2012. The CPI rose 2.5 percent in the year to January. Inflation is firming in part as the 2015 drop, which was driven by lower oil prices, fades from the calculation.

The so-called core CPI, which strips out food and energy

costs, increased 0.2 percent last month as new motor vehicle prices fell and apparel prices moderated after spiking in January. The core CPI increased 0.3 percent in January.

In the 12 months through February, the core CPI increased

2.2 percent after advancing 2.3 percent in January. It was the 15th straight month the year-on-year core CPI remained in the 2.1 percent to 2.3 percent range.

The Fed has a 2 percent inflation target and tracks an inflation measure which is currently at 1.7 percent.

ECONOMY SLOWING

The U.S. central bank is expected to raise its overnight benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 0.75 percent to 1.00 percent on Wednesday. It increased borrowing costs last December and has forecast three rate hikes in 2017.

U.S. financial markets were little moved by the data as traders awaited the outcome of the Fed’s meeting. The Fed will announce its decision on interest rates at 2 p.m. (1800 GMT)

February’s retail sales added to January’s weak reports on trade, construction and business spending that have pointed to sluggish economic growth in the first quarter.

The Atlanta Fed is forecasting GDP rising at a 1.2 percent annualized rate in the first quarter. With the labor market near full employment, slowing growth probably understates the health of the economy. In addition, GDP growth tends to be weaker in the first quarter because of calculation issues that the government has acknowledged and is working to resolve.

Tightening labor market conditions, which are steadily lifting wages, continue to underpin consumer spending.

In February, motor vehicle sales fell 0.2 percent after declining 1.3 percent the prior month. Receipts at service stations slipped 0.6 percent, reflecting lower gasoline prices.

Sales at electronics and appliances stores fell 2.8 percent, the biggest decline since December 2011, after climbing 1.1 percent in January. Receipts at building material stores increased 1.8 percent.

Sales at clothing stores fell 0.5 percent. Retailers including J.C. Penney Co Inc <JCP.N>, Abercrombie & Fitch <ANF.N> and Macy’s Inc <M.N> are scaling back on brick-and-mortar operations amid increased competition from online retailers, led by Amazon.com <AMZN.O>.

Sales at online retailers jumped 1.2 percent last month after increasing 0.5 percent in January. Receipts at restaurants and bars dipped 0.1 percent, while sales at sporting goods and hobby stores fell 0.4 percent.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

U.S. consumer spending slows; inflation pushes higher

A shoppers carries bags with purchases through Quincy Market in downtown in Boston, Massachusetts, U.S. January 11, 2017. REUTERS/Brian Snyder

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. consumer spending rose less than expected in January as the largest monthly increase in inflation in four years eroded households’ purchasing power, pointing to moderate economic growth in the first quarter.

The surge in inflation raises the possibility of an interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve this month. While still below the U.S. central bank’s 2 percent target, inflation is now in the upper end of the range that Fed officials in December felt would be reached this year.

The Commerce Department said on Wednesday that consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, increased 0.2 percent after rising 0.5 percent in December. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending gaining 0.3 percent in January.

Consumer spending is likely to remain supported amid promises by the Trump administration of sweeping tax cuts and increased infrastructure spending.

In a speech to Congress on Tuesday night, President Donald Trump said his economic team was working on a “historic tax reform that will reduce the tax rate on our companies” and promised a “massive” tax relief for the middle class. Trump offered no further details.

Consumer confidence has surged following Trump’s election victory, hitting a 15-1/2-year high in February.

In January the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.4 percent – the largest gain since February 2013 – after rising 0.2 percent in December.

In the 12 months through January, the PCE price index jumped 1.9 percent. That was the biggest year-on-year gain since October 2012 and followed a 1.6 percent increase in December.

Excluding food and energy, the so-called core PCE price index rose 0.3 percent in January. That was the biggest increase since January 2012 and followed a 0.1 percent gain in December.

The core PCE price index increased 1.7 percent year-on-year after a similar gain in December. The core PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure.

Prices for U.S. Treasuries fell, with the yield on the interest-rate sensitive 2-year note <US2YT=RR> rising to its highest level since August 2009. Fed funds futures were pricing in a 65 percent chance of an interest rate hike at the Fed’s March 14-15 policy meeting.

The U.S. central bank has forecast three rate increases this year. The Fed hiked its overnight interest rate last December by 25 basis points to a range of 0.50 percent to 0.75 percent.

The dollar rose against a basket of currencies, while U.S. stock index futures pared gains slightly.

REAL SPENDING FALLS

Rising price pressures, however, suggest that consumer spending will probably not provide a big boost to gross domestic product in the first quarter. When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending fell 0.3 percent in January, the first drop since August and the biggest in three years. Real consumer spending increased 0.3 percent in December.

Consumer spending increased at a 3.0 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter, helping to blunt some of the impact on the economy from a wider trade deficit. The economy grew at a 1.9 percent rate in the fourth quarter.

Consumer spending in January was held back by a 0.3 percent drop in purchases of long-lasting manufactured goods such as automobiles. Spending on services was unchanged.

Personal income rose 0.4 percent in January after gaining 0.3 percent in December. Wages and salaries rose 0.4 percent.

Income at the disposal of households after accounting for inflation and taxes, fell 0.2 percent, the first decline since October 2013. Savings increased to $795.7 billion in January from $779.5 billion in December

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)