Despite failures, North Korea could field missile next year: U.S. expert

A test-fire of strategic submarine-launched ballistic missile is seen in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency

By David Brunnstrom

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – In spite of the apparent failure of another North Korean missile test at the weekend, the country’s aggressive testing schedule could see its Musudan intermediate ballistic missile entering operational service sometime next year – much sooner than expected, a leading U.S. expert said on Monday.

The U.S. military said on Saturday it had detected a failed launch of a Musudan, the latest in a series in violation of United Nations resolutions.

The U.S. Strategic Command said the missile failed in a launch near North Korea’s northwestern city of Kusong. South Korea’s military said the missile failed immediately after launch, but neither it nor the Pentagon suggested reasons.

The Musudan has range of some 3,000 km (1,860 miles), posing a threat to South Korea and Japan, and possibly the U.S. territory of Guam. Pyongyang claims that it has succeeded in miniaturizing a nuclear warhead that can be mounted on a missile, but this have never been independently verified.

John Schilling, an aerospace engineer specializing in rocket propulsion, said it was noteworthy that North Korea had launched the missile from its west coast, rather than from its purpose-built test facility.

“Moving to a roadside near Kusong is like taking the training wheels off the bicycle, seeing if you really have mastered something new,” he wrote on the 38 North website that monitors North Korea.

Schilling said the move showed that in spite of only one successful launch to show for seven attempts this year, North Korea was not simply repeating old failures.

“They are continuing with an aggressive test schedule that involves, at least this time, demonstrating new operational capabilities. That increases the probability of individual tests failing, but it means they will learn more with each test,” he wrote.

“If they continue at this rate, the Musudan intermediate -range ballistic missile could enter operational service sometime next year – much sooner than had previously been expected,” Schilling said

The latest test comes ahead of a meeting on Wednesday in Washington of U.S., Japanese and South Korean defense and foreign ministers expected to focus on North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs.

The top U.S. diplomat for East Asia said last month Washington would speed up deployment of the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system to South Korea given the pace of North Korea’s missile tests.

Japanese government sources told Reuters Japan may accelerate around $1 billion of planned spending to upgrade its ballistic missile defenses.

(Reporting by David Brunnstrom; Editing by Alistair Bell)

Fore! South Korea golf course may get anti-missile battery

THAAD

By Ju-min Park and Hyunjoo Jin

SEOUL (Reuters) – South Korea’s military aims to deploy an advanced U.S. missile defense unit on a golf course, a defense ministry official said on Friday, after it had to scrap its initial site for the battery in the face of opposition from residents.

Tension on the Korean peninsula has been high this year, beginning with North Korea’s fourth nuclear test in January, which was followed by a satellite launch, a string of tests of various missiles, and its fifth and largest nuclear test this month.

In July, South Korea agreed with the United States that a U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile unit would be deployed in the Seongju region, southeast of the capital, Seoul, to defend the country.

But residents of the melon-farming area protested over worries about the safety of the system’s powerful radar and the likelihood it would be a target for North Korea, which warned of retaliation, if war broke out.

The plan to deploy the system has also angered China, which worries that the THAAD’s powerful radar would compromise its security.

The new site for the missile battery would be a golf course at the high-end Lotte Skyhill Seongju Country Club, the South Korean ministry official said told Reuters, confirming media reports.

The club is owned by the Lotte Group conglomerate and had been considered as an alternative due to its high altitude and accessibility for military vehicles, the defense official said.

It was not clear how the military would acquire the property, reportedly worth about 100 billion won ($90.54 million).

“We will positively consider the deployment of THAAD at the golf course considering the grave situation regarding national security,” Kim Byung-wook, an official at the club, told Reuters by phone.

He said the company had received a notice from the defense ministry about the plan on Thursday.

The United States said this week that it would speed up deployment of the system given the pace of North Korea’s missile tests, and it would be stationed in South Korea “as soon as possible”.

The United States and South Korea have said THAAD does not threaten China’s security or target any country other than North Korea.

In Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said deployment of the system should be stopped, and again promised unspecified countermeasures.

“The United States’ deployment of THAAD in South Korea cannot resolve the relevant parties’ security concerns,” he told a daily news briefing.

The military analyzed three possible locations for the system and found the golf course to be the most feasible, the defense official said, as the other two would require additional engineering which would delay the deployment.

The official declined to be identified as he was not authorized to speak to media.

(Additional reporting by Hyunjoo Jin, and Michael Martina in Beijing; Editing by Tony Munroe, Robert Birsel)

South Korea, U.S. to deploy THAAD missile defense, drawing China rebuke

Missile Defense System in South Korea

By Jack Kim

SEOUL (Reuters) – South Korea and the United States said on Friday they would deploy an advanced missile defense system in South Korea to counter a threat from North Korea, drawing a sharp and swift protest from neighboring China.

The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, anti-missile system will be used only as protection against North Korea’s growing nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities, the South’s Defence Ministry and the U.S. Defence Department said in a joint statement.

“This is an important … decision,” General Vincent Brooks, commander of U.S. forces in South Korea, said in a statement. “North Korea’s continued development of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction require the alliance to take this prudent, protective measure to bolster our … missile defense.”

Beijing said on Friday it lodged complaints with the U.S. and South Korean ambassadors over the THAAD decision.

China said the system would destabilize the security balance in the region without achieving anything to end the North’s nuclear program. China is North Korea’s main ally but opposes its pursuit of nuclear weapons and backed the latest United Nations sanctions against Pyongyang in March.

“China strongly urges the United States and South Korea to stop the deployment process of the THAAD anti-missile system, not take any steps to complicate the regional situation and do nothing to harm China’s strategic security interests,” the foreign ministry said in a statement.

Selection of a site for the system could come “within weeks,” and the allies were working to have it operational by the end of 2017, a South Korean Defence Ministry official said.

The THAAD will be deployed to U.S. Forces Korea “to protect alliance military forces from North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile threats,” the joint statement said. The United States maintains 28,500 troops in South Korea, a legacy of the 1950-53 Korean war.

“When the THAAD system is deployed to the Korean Peninsula, it will be focused solely on North Korean nuclear and missile threats and would not be directed towards any third-party nations,” the statement said.

SEVEN SUMMITS

The decision to deploy THAAD is the latest move to squeeze the increasingly isolated North, which also includes a series of bilateral sanctions by Seoul and Washington as well as layers of U.N. sanctions.

South Korea has been reluctant to discuss THAAD openly, given the opposition of China, its main trading partner and an increasingly close diplomatic ally. South Korean President Park Geun-hye and her Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, have held seven summit meetings since both took office in 2013.

Russia is also opposed to basing a THAAD system in South Korea. Its foreign ministry will take the deployment into account in Moscow’s military planning, Interfax news agency quoted it as saying on Friday.

China worries the THAAD system’s radar will be able to track its own military capabilities.

China “knows full well that the THAAD being deployed to South Korea is not aimed at it at all,” said Yoo Dong-ryol, who heads the Korea Institute of Liberal Democracy in Seoul. “It just doesn’t like more American weapons system being brought in so close to it.”

Japanese Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Koichi Hagiuda said Tokyo “supports the deployment because it bolsters security in the region.”

Japan has said it is considering another layer of ballistic missile defense, such as THAAD, to complement ship-borne missiles aboard Aegis destroyers in the Sea of Japan and its ground-based Patriot missiles.

TRUMP’S ARGUMENT

Built by Lockheed Martin Corp <LMT.N>, THAAD is designed to defend against short and medium-range ballistic missiles by intercepting them high in the Earth’s atmosphere, or outside it. The United States already has a THAAD system in its territory of Guam.

Each system costs an estimated $800 million and is likely to add to the cost of maintaining the U.S. military presence in South Korea, an issue in the U.S. presidential campaign. Republican candidate Donald Trump has argued that U.S. allies South Korea and Japan should pay more towards their own defense.

A joint South Korea-U.S. working group is determining the best location for deploying THAAD. It has been discussing the feasibility of deployment and potential locations for the THAAD unit since February, after a North Korean rocket launch put an object into space orbit.

The launch was condemned by the U.N. Security Council as a test of a long-range missile in disguise, which North Korea is prohibited from doing under several Security Council resolutions.

North Korea rejects the ban, saying it is an infringement on its sovereignty and its right to space exploration.

North Korea in late June launched an intermediate range ballistic missile off its east coast in a test that was believed to show some advancement in the weapon’s engine system.

On Thursday, Pyongyang said it was planning its toughest response to what it called a “declaration of war” by the United States after the U.S. Treasury Department blacklisted leader Kim Jong Un for human rights abuses.

Also on Thursday, a U.S. official said the administration of President Barack Obama was asking other nations to cut the employment of North Korean workers as a way to reduce Pyongyang’s access to foreign currency.

(Additional reporting by David Brunnstrom in Washington and Ben Blanchard in Beijing; Editing by Bill Tarrant and Lisa Von Ahn)

Obama urges NATO to stand firm against Russia despite Brexit

European Council President Donald Tusk (L-R), U.S. President Barack Obama and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker deliver remarks to reporters after their meeting at the NATO Summit in Warsaw, Poland July 8, 2016. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

By Yeganeh Torbati and Wiktor Szary

WARSAW (Reuters) – U.S. President Barack Obama urged NATO leaders on Friday to stand firm against a resurgent Russia over its seizure of Crimea from Ukraine, saying Britain’s vote to leave the European Union should not weaken the Western defense alliance.

In an article published in the Financial Times newspaper as he arrived for his last summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation before he leaves office in January, Obama said America’s “special relationship” with Britain would survive the referendum decision he had warned against.

“The special relationship between the U.S. and the UK will endure. I have no doubt that the UK will remain one of NATO’s most capable members,” he said, but noted that the vote raised significant questions about the future of EU integration.

The 28-nation EU will formally agree to deploy four battalions totaling 3,000 to 4,000 troops in the Baltic states and Poland on a rotating basis to reassure eastern members of its readiness to defend them against any Russian aggression.

Host nation Poland set the tone of mistrust of Russia. Its foreign minister, Witold Waszczykowski, told a pre-summit forum: “We have to reject any type of wishful thinking with regard to a pragmatic cooperation with Russia as long as it keeps on invading its neighbors.”

Obama was more diplomatic, urging dialogue with Russia, but he too urged allies to keep sanctions on Moscow until it fully complies with a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine, and to help Kiev defend its sovereignty. Ukraine is not itself a member of NATO.

“In Warsaw, we must reaffirm our determination — our duty under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty — to defend every NATO ally,” Obama said.

“We need to bolster the defense of our allies in central and eastern Europe, strengthen deterrence and boost our resilience against new threats, including cyber attacks.”

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland – all NATO members – have requested a permanent NATO presence. They fear Moscow will seek to destabilize their pro-Western governments through cyber attacks, stirring up Russian speakers, hostile broadcasting and even territorial incursions. Critics say the NATO plan is a minimal trip wire that might not deter Russian action.

The head of NATO’s military committee, Czech General Petr Pavel, said Russia was attempting to restore its status as a world power, an effort that includes using its military.

“We must accept that Russia can be a competitor, adversary, peer or partner and probably all four at the same time,” he said.

The Kremlin said it was absurd for NATO to talk of any threat coming from Russia and it hoped “common sense” would prevail at the Warsaw summit. Moscow was and remains open to dialogue with NATO and is ready to cooperate with it, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a conference call with journalists.

Russia often depicts NATO as an aggressor, whose member states are moving troops and military hardware further into former Soviet territory, which it regards as its sphere of influence.

Russian President Vladimir Putin made several gestures aimed at showing a cooperative face before the summit. At the same time, Moscow highlighted its intention to deploy nuclear-capable missiles in Kaliningrad, a Russian enclave between Poland and Lithuania.

Putin agreed to a meeting of the NATO-Russia Council next week, the second meeting this year of a consultation body that was put on ice after Moscow’s seizure of Crimea in 2014. Russia allowed a U.N. resolution authorizing the EU to intercept arms shipments to Libya in the Mediterranean, and Putin talked by telephone with Obama in the run-up to the NATO meeting.

However, a White House spokesman said they reached no agreement on cooperation in fighting Islamic State militants in Syria during that call on Wednesday.

BRITAIN

Outgoing British Prime Minister David Cameron, who said he will resign after losing the referendum on EU membership last month, will seek to emphasize an active commitment to Western security at his final NATO summit, to offset any concern about Europe’s biggest military spender leaving the EU.

The first item on the summit agenda was the signing of an agreement between the EU and NATO on deeper military and security cooperation.

The U.S.-led alliance is also expected to announce its support for the EU’s Mediterranean interdiction operation. NATO already supports EU efforts to stem a flood of refugees and migrants from Turkey into Greece, in conjunction with an EU-Turkey deal to curb migration in return for benefits for Ankara.

Obama and the other NATO leaders will have a more unscripted discussion of how to deal with Russia over dinner in the same room of the Polish Presidential Palace where the Warsaw Pact was signed in 1955, creating the Soviet-dominated military alliance that was NATO’s adversary during the Cold War.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg sought to balance the new military deployments and air patrols close to Russia’s borders by stressing the alliance would continue to seek “meaningful and constructive dialogue” with Moscow.

“We don’t want a new Cold War,” he told reporters. “The Cold War is history and it should remain history.”

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan told reporters before leaving Ankara to attend the summit that NATO also needed to adapt to do more to fight a threat from Islamic State militants, who were accused of last week’s deadly attack on Istanbul airport.

“As we have seen from the terrorist attacks first in Istanbul and then in Iraq and Saudi Arabia, international security is becoming more fragile,” Erdogan said.

“The concept of a security threat is undergoing a serious change. In this process, NATO needs to be more active and has to update itself against the new security threats,” he said.

(Additional reporting by Gabriela Baczynska and Robin Emmott in Warsaw, Humeyra Pamuk in Istanbul and Elizabeth Piper in Lodon; Writing by Paul Taylor; Editing by Toby Chopra, Larry King)

Negotiations for U.S. Defense aid for Israel have hit a snag

Israeli soldiers observe the area where the Israeli army is excavating part of a cliff to create an additional barrier along its border with Lebanon, near the community of Shlomi in northern Israel

By Dan Williams, Patricia Zengerle and Matt Spetalnick

JERUSALEM/WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Negotiations meant to enshrine U.S. defense aid for Israel over the next decade have snagged on disputes about the size, scope and fine print of a new multibillion-dollar package, officials say.

Five months into the talks, several U.S. and Israeli officials disclosed details about the disputes to Reuters on condition of anonymity. The U.S. and Israeli governments said negotiations were continuing, declining to elaborate.

Israel is seeking up to $10 billion more than the current 10-year package and billions more than the U.S. administration is offering, partly by asking for guaranteed funding for missile defense projects hitherto funded on an ad hoc basis by the U.S. Congress, the officials said.

U.S. President Barack Obama wants to ensure the funds, thus far spent partly on Israeli arms, are eventually spent entirely on U.S.-made weapons.

The differences partly reflect Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s vocal opposition to the international nuclear deal with Iran championed by Obama. The two sides are also at loggerheads over the Palestinians.

Israel has long been a major recipient of U.S. aid, most in the form of military assistance against a backdrop of an ebbing and flowing conflict with the Palestinians and Israel’s neighbors, as well as threats from Iran. Obama has pushed hard for a resolution to the conflict, but has made little headway.

In seeking a sharp increase in military funding, Israel argues it needs to offset military purchases by Iran, Israel’s regional arch-foe, after it secured sanctions relief in the accord limiting its nuclear program.

Israel also wants the U.S. administration to support missile defense projects that have so far relied on ad hoc assistance by the U.S. Congress, citing arms acquisitions by neighboring Arab states as well as Iran as conflicts rage in Syria and Yemen.

Obama’s administration, which has fraught relations with Netanyahu, is offering what it says is a record sum to Israel to assuage fears expressed both there and among his Republican rivals at home that the deal with Iran will endanger Israel.

But the officials say it is less money than Israel has sought overall and Obama also wants changes to allow U.S. defense firms to reap greater benefits from a new deal.

If unresolved before Obama leaves office in January, the impasse could deny him a chance to burnish his legacy with the aid package to Washington’s closest Middle East ally. That would also leave Netanyahu to await the next U.S. president in hopes of securing a better deal.

$10 BILLION MORE

The current Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), signed in 2007 and due to expire in 2018, gave Israel a total of about $30 billion, or an average of $3 billion annually, in so-called “Foreign Military Financing.”

The Israelis, whose annual defense budget is $15 billion, want at least $3.7 billion annually under the same rubric in the new MOU, officials say.

Israel also wants guaranteed missile defense aid built into the MOU for the first time, which could mean hundreds of millions of dollars more per year, bringing the full package to more than $40 billion over the next decade.

U.S. negotiators have proposed a total of between $3.5 billion and $3.7 billion in annual aid to Israel, but it was not clear if this included any money for missile defense.

The Obama administration has balked at Israel’s request to stipulate a separate funding track in the MOU for missile defense projects, one official said. It was not known how much Israel had proposed under the missile defense clause.

Israel wants the missile defense component to be “viewed as the ‘floor’ amount, as Congress can be asked for more on an ad hoc basis if circumstances require,” said one official.

U.S. lawmakers have in recent years given Israel up to $600 million in annual discretionary funds for missile defense, well beyond the $150 million requested by the Obama administration.

Palestinian rocket salvoes in the Gaza wars of 2008-9, 2012 and 2014 helped Israel drum up American sympathy and support for its anti-missile systems, Iron Dome, Arrow and David’s Sling.

More than four-fifths of the U.S. Senate signed a letter last week urging Obama to conclude an increased 10-year aid package.

“These discussions are continuing and we remain hopeful we can reach agreement on a new MOU that will build on the United States’ historic and enduring commitment to Israel’s security,” a White House official said in response to a Reuters request for confirmation of the latest negotiating terms.

The official declined to comment directly on the terms.

The current MOU allows Israel to spend 26.3 percent of the U.S. funds on its own defense industries. The United States wants to phase this provision out gradually so that all of the money is spent on American military products, the sources said.

Israel wants to keep the provision in place, or only partly reduced, they said. It fears a devastating blow to Israeli arms firms that glean some $800 million a year from the current MOU.

In another move to shore up its own defense industries, the United States wants to end a provision allowing Israel to spend around $400 million in annual MOU funds on military fuels.

One official paraphrased Washington’s message to Israel as: “We want (you) to be spending this money on actual security, on weapons systems, ways to make you safer.”

(Writing by Dan Williams and Matt Spetalnick; Editing by Jeffrey Heller and Philippa Fletcher)

U.S. Senate urges quick agreement on defense aid for Israel

An Iron Dome launcher fires an interceptor rocket in the southern Israeli city of

By Patricia Zengerle

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – More than four-fifths of the U.S. Senate have signed a letter urging President Barack Obama to quickly reach an agreement on a new defense aid package for Israel worth more than the current $3 billion per year.

Eighty-three of the 100 senators signed the letter, led by Republican Lindsey Graham and Democrat Chris Coons. Senator Ted Cruz, a 2016 presidential candidate, was one of the 51 Republicans on board. The Senate’s Democratic White House hopeful, Bernie Sanders, was not among the 32 Democrats.

“In light of Israel’s dramatically rising defense challenges, we stand ready to support a substantially enhanced new long-term agreement to help provide Israel the resources it requires to defend itself and preserve its qualitative military edge,” said the letter, which was first reported by Reuters.

It did not provide a figure for the suggested aid. Israel wants $4 billion to $4.5 billion in aid in a new agreement to replace the current memorandum of understanding, or MOU, which expires in 2018. U.S. officials have given lower target figures of about $3.7 billion. They hope for a new agreement before Obama leaves office in January.

The Obama administration wants to cement a new 10-year defense aid deal before he leaves office in January to demonstrate his commitment to Israel’s security, especially after reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran that Israel strongly opposed. Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have had a tense relationship.

A White House official said discussions with Israel were continuing.

“We are prepared to sign an MOU with Israel that would constitute the largest single pledge of military assistance to any country in U.S. history,” the official said.

The funding is intended to boost Israel’s military and allow it to maintain a technological advantage over its Arab neighbors.

The letter said the Senate also intends to consider increased U.S. funding for cooperative missile defense programs, similar to increases in the past several years.

Obama has asked for $150 million for such programs, but lawmakers are believed to be willing to send Israel hundreds of millions for programs like its Iron Dome air defense system and the David’s Sling medium- and long-range military defense system.

(Additional reporting by Matt Spetalnick; Editing by Sandra Maler and Bernadette Baum)