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FDA takes steps to protect blood supply in Florida amid Zika probe

By Julie Steenhuysen and Toni Clarke

CHICAGO (Reuters) – The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has ordered blood banks in Florida’s two most densely populated counties to stop collecting blood as health officials determine whether Zika has begun transmission in the continental United States.

Florida has been investigating four possible cases of local transmission in Miami-Dade County and Broward County. It is the first U.S. state to report cases that may not be related to travel to other countries with active outbreaks.

Zika has struck hardest in Brazil, where the outbreak was first detected last year, and has since spread rapidly through the Americas. The virus can cause a rare birth defect, microcephaly, in newborns whose mothers have been infected, and is believed to be linked to Guillain-Barre syndrome in adults.

Zika most commonly infects people via mosquito bite. But reports of the virus being transmitted through sex and blood transfusions has prompted public health officials to recommend additional precautions for sexual partners and blood banks.

In a statement posted online on Wednesday, the FDA said blood centers in the two Florida counties should stop collecting blood until they can test each unit or put in place technology that can kill pathogens in the blood.

The FDA also recommended that nearby counties implement the same measures as it moves to prevent transmission of the virus through the blood supply.

OneBlood, Florida’s biggest blood collection center, said it will begin testing all of its collections for Zika virus, effective July 29, using an investigational screening test and that it is working as quickly as possible to comply with the FDA’s request.

The FDA has authorized the emergency use of several investigational Zika screening tests, including products made by Hologic Inc and Roche Holding AG.

The agency has also approved a pathogen inactivation technology made by Cerus Corp that kills the virus in blood platelets and plasma. The company is conducting clinical trials to show it can also kill pathogens in red blood cells.

The United States uses roughly 12 million units of red cells, four million plasma units and two million units of platelets a year.

Unlike oxygen-carrying red blood cells, which can be kept for 42 days in a refrigerator, or plasma, which keeps for a year if frozen, platelets have a shelf life of just four to seven days.

Platelets in general tend to be scarce because there are fewer donors. It can take up to two hours to extract platelets using an apheresis machine, said Dr. Richard Benjamin, chief medical officer for Cerus. And because of their short shelf life hospitals typically do not keep much surplus.

It can be hard to source them from elsewhere, too. By the time they are flown from one place to another they may only have two days of life left.

“All we need is a few more Zika hotspots and there will be a shortage of platelets across the country,” Benjamin said.

The FDA’s action follows Florida’s announcement on Wednesday that it had identified two additional Zika cases – one more in each county – that were not related to travel to an area where the virus is being transmitted.

A CDC spokesman said on Wednesday that “evidence is mounting to suggest local transmission via mosquitoes” in South Florida, noting that the cases fit transmission patterns seen with prior mosquito-borne outbreaks such as Chikungunya.

FDA said it will continue to monitor the situation in Florida in cooperation with the CDC and state public health authorities and provide updates as additional information becomes available.

(Reporting by Julie Steenhuysen; Editing by Bernard Orr)

Doctors devise care plan for babies as Zika threat looms in U.S.

By Julie Steenhuysen

CHICAGO (Reuters) – As U.S. public health officials try to determine whether Zika has arrived in the country, doctors are establishing guidelines on how to care for the rising number of babies whose mothers were infected with the virus during pregnancy.

Florida said it is investigating two possible cases of Zika not related to travel to an area where Zika is active, raising the possibility of the first incidence of local transmission of the mosquito-borne virus.

On Thursday, the Florida Department of Health said it was investigating a non travel-related case of Zika in Broward County, marking the second such case. Florida has asked the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to assist in its investigation that must also rule out sexual transmission.

So far, 400 pregnant women in the continental United States have evidence of Zika infection, up from 346 from a week ago, the CDC reported on Thursday. All of those were related to travel or sex with an infected person who had traveled.

Three more babies have been born in the United States with birth defects linked to Zika infections in their mothers, bringing the total to 12, CDC said.

Zika has been proven to cause microcephaly, a severe birth defect marked by small head size and undersized brains that requires a complex network of care providers and social workers to treat and provide support to parents.

But microcephaly is just the tip of the iceberg, according to experts speaking at a CDC-sponsored workshop on Thursday. They said many babies exposed in utero who appear normal at birth may have developmental problems down the road, including hearing and vision problems.

For example, babies born without a functional sucking reflex may never develop the ability to swallow and will need to be fed through a feeding tube. These infants will have a higher risk of pneumonia, said Dr. Edwin Trevathan, a pediatrician and child neurologist at Vanderbilt University Medical Center.

Less obvious damage to structures on only one side of the brain may cause seizure disorders that do not appear until adolescence, Trevathan said.

Pediatric experts at the workshop are reviewing the potential consequences of Zika infection and plan to make recommendations on ways to treat Zika-exposed infants.

The connection between Zika and microcephaly first came to light last fall in Brazil, which has now confirmed more than 1,600 cases of microcephaly that it considers related to Zika infections in the mothers.

FLORIDA PROBE

The recommendations come as Florida officials investigate what may be the first cases of Zika in the continental United States caused by the bite of a local mosquito.

Florida officials will not elaborate on how a resident of Miami was infected and whether the first case under investigation was related to mosquitoes.

“We continue to investigate and have not ruled out travel or sexual transmission at this time,” Florida spokeswoman Mara Gambineri said in an email on Thursday. However, she said the state still suspects the case is not related to travel to a Zika-infected area.

The White House on Wednesday released a statement saying President Barack Obama had spoken to Florida Governor Rick Scott regarding a suspected case of mosquito transmission of Zika and promised more money to fight the virus.

At the Zika workshop, Dr. Marc Fischer, chief of surveillance and epidemiology activity at the arboviral diseases branch of the CDC, said the agency has worked with state health departments to establish strategies to identify possible local transmission in the United States.

“When and if there is a case of local transmission, we work with local health departments to identify additional cases to define the geographic scope of the outbreak,” he said.

That includes surveying households and neighbors within a 150-yard radius around the residence of the person who has Zika.

“That’s basically the flying radius of the vector mosquitoes,” he said.

According to the U.S. Zika response plan, Zika local transmission is defined as two or more cases not due to travel or sex with an infected person that occur in a one-mile diameter over the course of a month.

CDC has given Florida $2 million for Zika preparedness, and on Thursday awarded another $5.6 million to assist the state with Zika as part of an additional $60 million in Zika funds to states announced on Thursday. U.S. lawmakers so far have not approved any of the White House’s $1.9 billion request for Zika.

CDC plans to award another $10 million to states and territories on Aug. 1 to speed identification of microcephaly and other birth defects linked to Zika.

(Additional reporting by Bill Berkrot in New York; Editing by Bernard Orr)

Florida health department investigates possible local Zika transmission

(Reuters) – Florida health officials said on Tuesday they are investigating a case of Zika virus infection that does not appear to have stemmed from travel to another region with an outbreak.

The statement from the Florida Department of Health did not specify whether the Zika case was believed to have been transmitted via mosquito bite, sexual contact or other means.

The department said the case was reported in Miami-Dade County and that it is working with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on an epidemiological study.

The department also reiterated guidance to Florida residents on protecting themselves from mosquitoes that may carry the virus.

“Zika prevention kits and repellant will be available for pickup … and distributed in the area under investigation,” the health department said in a statement. “Mosquito control has already conducted reduction and prevention activities in the area of investigation.”

Zika, which can cause a rare birth defect and other neurological conditions, has spread rapidly through the Americas. A small number of cases of Zika transmitted between sexual partners have also been documented.

There has yet to be a case of local transmission by mosquitoes in the continental United States, though more than 1,300 people in the country have reported infections after traveling to a Zika outbreak area.

U.S. officials have predicted local outbreaks to begin as the weather warms, particularly in southern states such as Florida and Texas.

(Reporting by Michele Gershberg in New York; Editing by Matthew Lewis and Bernard Orr)

CDC monitoring 320 U.S. pregnant women with Zika

A woman looks at a Center for Disease Control (CDC) health advisory sign about the dangers of the Zika virus as she lines up for a security screening at Miami International Airport in Miami, Florida, U.S., May 23, 2016. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Thursday that it is monitoring 320 U.S. pregnant women with laboratory evidence of Zika virus infection, up from 287 women a week earlier.

However, the number of babies born in the United States with birth defects linked to Zika infection in mothers during pregnancy, or lost pregnancies linked to the virus, remained unchanged from last week’s report at 7 and 5, respectively, according to a CDC registry created last month.

The registry compiles poor outcomes of pregnancies with laboratory evidence of possible Zika virus infection in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The latest figures are as of June 30.

Zika has caused concern throughout the Americas due to an alarming rise in cases of the birth defect microcephaly and other severe fetal brain abnormalities linked to the mosquito-borne virus reported in Brazil, the country hardest hit by the outbreak. Infants with microcephaly are born with abnormally small heads and may experience potentially disabling developmental problems.

Brazil has confirmed more than 1,600 cases of microcephaly linked to Zika.

All reported U.S. cases of Zika have so far involved people who traveled to areas with a current outbreak, but health experts have warned that local transmission cases are likely to occur in the coming weeks during summer mosquito season. Gulf Coast states, such as Florida and Texas, are seen as particularly vulnerable.

The virus can also be transmitted via unprotected sex with an infected man.

(Reporting by David Morgan in Washington and Bill Berkrot in New York)

U.S. to fund Zika virus study of U.S. Olympic team

By Bill Berkrot

(Reuters) – The U.S. National Institutes of Health said it will fund a study to monitor U.S. athletes, coaches and members of the Olympic Committee staff for exposure to Zika virus while in Brazil, with the hope of gaining better understanding of how it persists in the body and the potential risks it poses.

The study, announced on Tuesday, seeks to determine the incidence of Zika virus infection, identify potential risk factors for infection, evaluate how long the virus remains in bodily fluids, and study reproductive outcomes of Zika-infected participants.

Brazil, which has been hardest hit by the mosquito-borne virus spreading across the Americas, will host the Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro next month.

The virus has caused concern because it can cause potentially severe birth defects in babies whose mothers were infected during pregnancy, including microcephaly – a birth defect marked by small head size that can lead to developmental problems. It has also been linked to Guillain-Barre, a rare neurological syndrome that can cause temporary paralysis in adults.

The study, which hopes to enroll at least 1,000 subjects, is being led by Dr. Carrie Byington of the University of Utah, who earlier this year began a pilot study of 150 participants, a third of whom said they or their partner planned to become pregnant within a year of the Olympics. They will be included in the larger study.

“We will follow individuals who have exposure to Zika virus for up to two years,” Byington said via email. “Because the cohort is anticipated to include primarily individuals in their reproductive years, we will be able to study reproductive health outcomes, including pregnancy outcomes.”

The connection between Zika and microcephaly first came to light last fall in Brazil, which has now confirmed more than 1,600 cases of microcephaly that it considers to be related to Zika infections in the mothers.

Zika is the first known mosquito-borne virus that can also be transmitted via unprotected sex with an infected male partner, leading to imprecise recommendations of how long couples should abstain or refrain from unprotected sex if the woman is pregnant or hoping to become pregnant.

Study participants will provide samples of bodily fluids to be tested for Zika and related viruses, such as dengue, which will help identify people who are infected but asymptomatic. As many as 80 percent of those who contract Zika do not display the classic symptoms, such as fever, rash and red eyes, researchers have said.

The U.S. Olympic study could help answer some of the big unknowns surrounding Zika, particularly the relative risks of asymptomatic versus symptomatic infections, and how long the virus remains present and transmittable in semen.

“We hope to identify risk factors and protective measures that may help other travelers avoid infection,” Byington said.

The USOC had previous said it will provide several months worth of condoms to its athletes and staff heading to Brazil for the games.

(Reporting by Bill Berkrot; Editing by Bernard Orr)

Republican lawmakers approve $1.1 billion in new Zika funds

By Susan Cornwell

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday agreed to $1.1 billion to fight the Zika virus, short-changing President Barack Obama’s $1.9 billion funding request and angering Democrats by making other cuts to pay for it.

The House approved a funding deal that had been agreed to on Wednesday by Republicans from both the House and Senate. But the bill’s future was uncertain in the Senate, where the Democratic minority has more power to stop legislation, and Democratic leader Harry Reid has declared his opposition.

“It is a responsible plan that assures the administration will continue to have the needed resources to protect the public,” Republican House Speaker Paul Ryan said. Republicans said the deal included funding for fiscal years 2016 and 2017.

But the White House said the allocation fell short.

“This plan from congressional Republicans is four months late and nearly a billion dollars short of what our public health experts have said is necessary to do everything possible to fight the Zika virus, and steals funding from other health priorities,” White House press secretary Josh Earnest said in a statement before the House voted.

Earnest said the Republican plan would limit needed birth control services for women seeking to prevent Zika, which can be spread through unprotected sex — “a clear indication they don’t take seriously the threat from the Zika virus.”

Democrats have been urging Republicans for months to agree to more Zika funding, and the Obama administration has already reprogrammed nearly $600 million that had been set aside to fight Ebola.

House Democrats said they could not go along with the deal because of $750 million in budget cuts elsewhere that the Republicans want to use to pay for the Zika spending.

Senate Democrats also voiced displeasure, clouding the outlook for it passing.

“A narrowly partisan proposal that cuts off women’s access to birth control, shortchanges veterans and rescinds Obamacare funds to cover the cost is not a serious response to the threat from the Zika virus,” Reid said.

Still, Ryan urged the Senate to move on the bill.

According to House Appropriations Committee Chairman Hal Rogers, $543 million of the $1.1 billion would come from unspent funds set aside for implementing Obamacare in U.S. territories, while $107 million would come from unused funds to fight another virus, Ebola. Another $100 million would come from unused administrative funds at the Department of Health and Human Services, he said.

(Reporting by Susan Cornwell and Susan Heavey; Editing by Toby Chopra)

Congo almost runs out of yellow fever vaccine amid epidemic

Residents read newspapers with reports on Yellow Fever

By Aaron Ross

KINSHASA (Reuters) – Democratic Republic of Congo has almost run out of yellow fever vaccine in Kinshasa, in the same week that the government declared an epidemic of the disease in the packed capital and two other provinces.

Some local people have complained they were denied immunization due to the shortage, despite queueing for a shot. More supplies have been promised, but health officials in the impoverished country say they have to choose between the high cost of flying them in, or a long wait for shipment by sea.

The mosquito-borne hemorrhagic virus is a major concern in Kinshasa, a city of about 12 million people which has poor health services, a humid climate beloved of the insects and much stagnant water where they can breed owing to pour drainage.

Health minister Felix Kabange said on Monday that 67 cases had been confirmed in Kinshasa, Kongo Central and Kwango provinces and that over 1,000 more suspected cases are being monitored. Five people have died from the disease.

The government and international health organizations vaccinated more than 2 million people, about half of them in Kinshasa, between May 26 and June 4.

But there is no more vaccine left, aside from a small number of doses left in reserve in Kongo Central and some being administered by a government agency at Kinshasa’s central hospital, airport and river crossing with neighboring Congo Republic, health officials said.

The agency is charging $35 for the doses it administers, a hefty sum in a country whose gross national income per person is estimated by the World Bank at $380 a year.

Eugene Kabambi, the World Health Organization (WHO) spokesman in Congo, said that the International Coordinating Group on vaccine provision has promised Congo more than a million more doses.

“That requires either a cargo flight, in which case it would come very quickly but cost a lot, or if it’s by boat, it could take a few weeks,” he told Reuters.

The Coordinating Group brings together the WHO and United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) with the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies plus the medical charity Médecins sans Frontières.

The global stockpile of yellow fever vaccine has already been depleted twice this year to immunize people in Angola, Uganda and Congo. It stands at 6 million doses, but this may not be enough if there are simultaneous outbreaks in a number of highly-populated areas, experts warn.

Almost 18 million doses have been distributed for emergency vaccination campaigns so far in the three African countries.

QUEUES FOR VACCINES

Congo has extensive experience of dealing with outbreaks of tropical diseases and the Ebola virus was first identified in the central African country.

It earned plaudits in 2014 for quickly containing a local Ebola outbreak that killed 49 people in the country. By contrast an Ebola epidemic killed more than 11,300 as it swept through West Africa from 2013.

Of the cases confirmed in the latest yellow fever outbreak, seven were locally transmitted in Congo. Another 58 were imported from Angola, where it began, and two came from remote forested areas not linked to the current outbreak.

Symptoms of the disease include fever, body aches and nausea, although most people recover.

In Kinshasa’s Ndjili commune, a maze of narrow alleys and one of the health zones in the city targeted for vaccination in late May, many residents were unable to receive an injection before stocks ran out.

“Everyone started coming, even from other districts. Near the end we realized that the vaccine was insufficient,” said Murphy Nzuzi, a doctor at a dimly-lit health center in Ndjili with only a few small treatment rooms. He added that fights had broken out among people waiting in line.

In a nearby market where trash collected in a small stream, residents said that some people had received vaccination papers while waiting in line but never got a shot.

“When you present yourself, they give you the card that gives you access to the vaccine, but then there wasn’t enough vaccine for everyone,” said local resident Mama Mavungu.

The current method for making vaccines, using chicken eggs, takes a year. Health authorities are considering using a fifth of the standard dose of vaccine – enough to immunize temporarily but not to give lifelong immunity – to maximize its availability, but no final decision has been made.

(Editing by Tim Cocks and David Stamp)

Congo declares yellow fever epidemic, 1,000 suspected cases

residents reading reports of yellow fever

KINSHASA (Reuters) – Democratic Republic of Congo on Monday declared a yellow fever epidemic in three provinces, including the capital Kinshasa, after confirming 67 cases of the disease, with another 1,000 suspected cases being monitored.

Health Minister Felix Kabange said only seven of the proven cases were indigenous to the Central African country, while 58 were imported from Angola, where the outbreak began. A further two cases came from remote forested areas not linked to the current outbreak. Five people in total have died, Kabange added.

“I declare today a localized epidemic of yellow fever in the provinces of Kinshasa, Kongo Central and Kwango,” Kabange told a news conference.

Kinshasa is the primary concern for global health officials since it has a densely-packed population of more than 12 million and poor healthcare infrastructure.

Yellow fever is transmitted by the same mosquitoes that spread the Zika and dengue viruses, although it is a much more serious disease. The “yellow” in the name refers to the jaundice that affects some infected patients.

The global stockpile of vaccines has already been depleted twice this year to immunize people in Angola, Uganda and Congo. It stands at 6 million doses, but this may not be enough if there are simultaneous outbreaks in multiple highly-populated areas, experts warn.

Almost 18 million doses have been distributed for emergency vaccination campaigns so far in the three African countries.

The current method for making vaccines, using chicken eggs, takes a year.

World Health Organisation (WHO) advisers have recommended using a fifth of the standard dose of vaccine in the event of a global shortage – enough to immunize temporarily but not to give lifelong immunity.

“An epidemic in such a large city (as Kinshasa) is always difficult to handle,” said WHO’s Congo representative Yokouide Allarangar.

A vaccination campaign has been staged in two of the city’s health zones deemed as high risk because the virus is circulating but is not linked to imported cases, he said.

“We need to quickly try to contain these zones where the virus circulates to prevent the disease from spreading to other zones,” he said, adding that a million of the city’s residents have been vaccinated so far.

Manufacturers of the vaccine include the Institut Pasteur, government factories in Brazil and Russia as well as French drugmaker Sanofi.

Congo’s outbreak, since January, comes at a time when political tensions linked to an upcoming presidential election and an economic crisis stoked by a slump in global commodity prices is already putting a huge strain on the country’s stability.

President Joseph Kabila is facing opposition, which has sometimes turned violent, amid concerns that he will try to cling to power beyond the expiry of his mandate at year-end.

(Writing by Tim Cocks; editing by Matthew Mpoke Bigg and G Crosse)

Health agency reports U.S. babies with Zika-related birth defects

Mosquito under microscope, studying Zika

By Bill Berkrot

(Reuters) – Three babies have been born in the United States with birth defects linked to likely Zika virus infections in the mothers during pregnancy, along with three cases of lost pregnancies linked to Zika, federal health officials said on Thursday.

The six cases reported as of June 9 were included in a new U.S. Zika pregnancy registry created by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The agency said it will begin regular reporting of poor outcomes of pregnancies with laboratory evidence of possible Zika virus infection in the 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Zika has caused alarm throughout the Americas since numerous cases of the birth defect microcephaly linked to the mosquito-borne virus were reported in Brazil, the country hardest hit by the current outbreak. The rare birth defect is marked by unusually small head size and potentially severe developmental problems.

The U.S. cases so far involve women who contracted the virus outside the United States in areas with active Zika outbreaks, or were infected through unprotected sex with an infected partner. There have not yet been any cases reported of local transmission of the virus in the United States. Health experts expect local transmission to occur as mosquito season gets underway with warmer weather, especially in Gulf Coast states, such as Florida and Texas.

The CDC declined to provide details of the three cases it reported on Thursday, but said all had brain abnormalities consistent with congenital Zika virus infection. Two U.S. cases of babies with microcephaly previously were reported in Hawaii and New Jersey.

The poor birth outcomes reported include those known to be caused by Zika, such as microcephaly and other severe fetal defects, including calcium deposits in the brain indicating possible brain damage, excess fluid in the brain cavities and surrounding the brain, absent or poorly formed brain structures and abnormal eye development, the CDC said.

“The pattern that we’re seeing here in the U.S. among travelers is very similar to what we’re seeing in other places like Colombia and Brazil,” Dr. Denise Jamieson, co-leader of the CDC Zika pregnancy task force, said in a telephone interview.

Authorities in Brazil have confirmed more than 1,400 cases of microcephaly in babies whose mothers were exposed to Zika during pregnancy.

Lost pregnancies include miscarriage, stillbirths and terminations with evidence of the birth defects. The CDC did not specify the nature of the three reported lost pregnancies, citing privacy concerns about pregnancy outcomes.

The CDC established its registry to monitor pregnancies for a broad range of poor outcomes linked to Zika. It said it plans to issue updated reports every Thursday intended to ensure that information about pregnancy outcomes linked with the Zika virus is publicly available.

The CDC said the information is essential for planning for clinical, public health and other services needed to support pregnant women and families affected by Zika.

“We’re hoping this underscores the importance of pregnant women not traveling to areas of ongoing Zika virus transmission if possible, and if they do need to travel to ensure that they avoid mosquito bites and the risk of sexual transmission,” Jamieson said.

(Reporting by Bill Berkrot; Editing by Will Dunham)

Scientists use climate, population change to predict disease

A mosquito is seen under a microscope at the Greater Los Angeles County Vector Control District in Santa Fe Springs

By Kate Kelland

LONDON (Reuters) – British scientists say they have developed a model that can predict outbreaks of zoonotic diseases – those such as Ebola and Zika that jump from animals to humans – based on changes in climate.

Describing their model as “a major improvement in our understanding of the spread of diseases from animals to people”, the researchers said it could help governments prepare for and respond to disease outbreaks, and to factor in their risk when making policies that might affect the environment.

“Our model can help decision-makers assess the likely impact (on zoonotic disease) of any interventions or change in national or international government policies, such as the conversion of grasslands to agricultural lands,” said Kate Jones, a professor who co-led the study at University College London’s genetics, evolution and environment department.

The model also has the potential to look at the impact of global change on many diseases at once, she said.

Around 60 to 75 percent of emerging infectious diseases are so-called “zoonotic events”, where animal diseases jump into people. Bats in particular are known to carry many zoonotic viruses.

The Ebola and Zika viruses, now well known, both originated in wild animals, as did many others including Rift Valley fever and Lassa fever that affect thousands already and are predicted to spread with changing environmental factors.

Jones’ team used the locations of 408 known Lassa fever outbreaks in West Africa between 1967 and 2012 and the changes in land use and crop yields, temperature and rainfall, behavior and access to health care.

They also identified the sub-species of the multimammate rat that transmits Lassa virus to humans, to map its location against ecological factors.

The model was then developed using this information along with forecasts of climate change, future population density and land-use change.

“Our approach successfully predicts outbreaks of individual diseases by pairing the changes in the host’s distribution as the environment changes with the mechanics of how that disease spreads from animals to people,” said David Redding, who co-led the study.

“It allows us to calculate how often people are likely to come into contact with disease-carrying animals and their risk of the virus spilling over.”

The team tested their new model using Lassa fever, a disease that is endemic across West Africa and is caused by a virus passing to people from rats. Like Ebola, Lassa causes hemorrhagic fever and can be fatal.

The study, published in the journal Methods in Ecology and Evolution, tested the model with Lassa and found the number of infected people will double to 406,000 by 2070 from some 195,000 due to climate change and a growing human population.

(Reporting by Kate Kelland; editing by Andrew Roche)

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