The Jim Bakker Show

Fed’s Powell: U.S. economy performing ‘very well’ though benefits uneven

FILE PHOTO: Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at his news conference after the two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., June 13, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo/File Photo/File Photo

(Reuters) – The U.S. economy is “performing very well overall,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in remarks prepared for the opening of a rural housing conference in Washington.

The job market in particular “by many national-level measures…is very strong,” with unemployment at a 50-year low, Powell said, capping a week of widespread market nervousness with a reminder that the U.S. economy continues to expand.

Powell’s brief prepared statement did not address monetary policy or the Fed’s upcoming meeting, at which the central bank will decide whether to raise interest rates and will also release new economic projections for the coming year.

Powell noted to the Housing Assistance Council, a nonprofit that focuses on rural housing issues, that the benefits of the ongoing recovery have not spread evenly around the country but have been concentrated in major cities.

“Some communities have yet to feel the full benefits of the ongoing expansion,” Powell said, with double-digit unemployment still the norm in more than two dozen counties and nearly a third of rural homes without broadband internet.

(Reporting by Howard Schneider in Indianapolis; editing by Diane Craft)

Deals lure U.S. Black Friday shoppers, biggest sales gains online

A large crowd of people shop during a Black Friday sales event at Macy's flagship store on 34th St. in New York City, U.S., November 22, 2018. REUTERS/Stephanie Keith

By Nandita Bose and Chriss Swaney

NEW YORK/PITTSBURGH (Reuters) – U.S. shoppers formed long lines at store checkout counters on Black Friday to snap up deep discounts on clothing and electronics, offering evidence that a healthy economy and rising wages are translating into stronger consumer spending at the start of retailers’ make-or-break holiday season.

“I am spending more, the mood generally is more upbeat,” said Sharon Neidert, 57, visiting New York City from Ohio. “My daughter moved out this year so I have more disposable income,” said Neidert, a manager at a software company.

People shop during the Black Friday sales shopping event at Roosevelt Field Mall in Garden City, New York, U.S., November 23, 2018. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton

While online sales were up substantially and traffic looked healthy at stores offering discounts, detailed numbers on brick-and-mortar holiday sales will not be available for several days.

“Overall, Black Friday doesn’t have the sense of urgency as in the past and feels more like a busy regular weekend day in many of the stores,” said Dana Telsey at Telsey Advisory Group.

“Many of the promotions were available for the past couple of weeks,” Telsey said. “We haven’t noticed desperation from any retailer.”

Shares of U.S. department stores Macy’s Inc, Kohl’s Corp, J.C. Penney Co Inc and Target Corp were all down between 1 and 3 percent on Friday and weighed on the broader S&P 500 retailing index, down 0.15 percent.

Investors are concerned that retail peaked in the second quarter and business will slow down as comparisons get tougher, said Brian Yarbrough, retail analyst with Edward Jones.

Victoria’s Secret owner L Brands, Walmart Inc and American Eagle Outfitters were some of the top gainers, rising between 0.5 to 3 percent.

STRONG ONLINE SALES

Shoppers spent $643 million online by 10 a.m. ET on Black Friday, with smartphone sales lifting overall online spending by 28 percent from a year ago, according to Adobe Analytics, which tracks transactions at 80 of the top 100 U.S. online retailers.

Online spending is on track to hit $6.4 billion on Friday, which is likely to either match or surpass last year’s Cyber Monday revenue of $6.6 billion, Adobe said. Online sales on Thanksgiving Day were up 28 percent at $3.7 billion.

The National Retail Federation forecast U.S. holiday retail sales in November and December will increase between 4.3 and 4.8 percent over 2017 for a total of $717.45 billion to $720.89 billion. That compares with an average annual increase of 3.9 percent over the past five years.

About 38 percent of American consumers plan to shop on Black Friday, and six in 10 expect to make at least half of their holiday purchases on that day, a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed last week.

DEAL FRENZY

Shoppers picked up big-ticket items such as TVs, Apple Inc, iPads and Watches at Target, while phones, toys, gaming consoles and cookware were top sellers at Walmart Inc.

Some of the deals:

– An H&M store in Manhattan offered 30 percent off everything in-store and online.

– Macy’s in Herald Square, Manhattan, sold a Coach designer wallet, originally $225, for $53.

– Midtown Comics was taking 25 percent off everything at its Manhattan locations until noon.

– An Eddie Bauer in Chicago offered 50 percent off all items.

– At a Chicago-area Pandora, which makes popular charm bracelets that can cost up to $1,000, jewelry was 35 percent off before 10 a.m. and 25 percent off for the remainder of the day.

– J Crew clothing was 50 percent off. Its site experienced some technical difficulties before coming back up.

– Walmart was selling a Google Home mini for $99.

– Buy one, get one free pajamas at Victoria’s Secret.

Charlotte Jackson, from London, come to New York with her mother for Black Friday shopping.

“Black Friday isn’t as big of a deal back home,” Jackson, a 27-year-old tax adviser, said while shopping for lingerie and pajamas at Victoria’s Secret.

MORE TOYS AT TARGET, JC PENNEY

Many retailers, reacting to the bankruptcy of the Toys ‘R’ Us chain, are catering to parents.

Target said in October it planned to dedicate nearly a quarter of a million square feet of new space to its toy business across 500 of its stores. The discount chain’s customers will also be able to shop for more than 2,500 new and exclusive toys, Mark Tritton, Target’s chief merchandising officer said.

“Toys ‘R’ Us had better quality for toys,” said Ashley Drew, 29, shopping for her 5-year-old daughter at a Los Angeles-area Walmart, next door to the empty shell of a Toys ‘R’ Us store.

Department store JC Penney Co Inc, known for its mid-priced apparel, has also made a push into toys.

Carolyn Pertette from Wilkinsburg, Pennsylvania, shopped in the early morning at the Waterfront Mall in Pittsburgh. She said she was upset about the closing of Toys ‘R’ Us.

“I’m concerned about where I’m going to get toys for the kids,” she said.

Shortly before 6 a.m. on Friday, shoppers were banging on the door at a Bath & Body Works in the Waterfront Mall in Pittsburgh, lining up for discounted candles, soaps, and lotion, while long lines formed at checkout counters in a Dick’s Sporting Goods store in the mall.

There was little evidence of the delirious shopper frenzy of Black Fridays from past years, in other parts of the country, especially the Northeast, where crowds were thin due to cold weather.

An Athleta clothing store in Tyson’s Corner, Virginia, provided hot chocolate with marshmallows to women in line for the dressing room.

(Additional reporting by Shannon Stapleton in Long Island, Lewis Krauskopf, Jennifer Ablan and Anna Irrera in New York, Lisa Baertlein in Los Angeles, Siddharth Cavale in Bangalore; Writing by Nick Zieminski; editing by Patrick Graham, Saumyadeb Chakrabarty and Bill Rigby)

U.S. retail sales rebound on autos, building materials

FILE PHOTO: A woman walks with shopping bags at Bryant Park in New York, U.S. December 2, 2016. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. retail sales rebounded sharply in October as purchases of motor vehicles and building materials surged, likely driven by recovery efforts in areas devastated by Hurricane Florence.

The report on Thursday from the Commerce Department also showed broad gains in sales ahead of the holiday shopping season, which bodes well for consumer spending and the overall economy as the fourth quarter gets underway.

Sales could also get a boost from declining oil prices, which are expected to lead to cheaper gasoline.

“The consumer has the wind at their backs and with gasoline prices falling at the pump, we expect even more spending in the next couple of months,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York.

Retail sales increased 0.8 percent last month. But data for September was revised down to show sales slipping 0.1 percent instead of rising 0.1 percent. August sales were also weaker than previously thought.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales increasing 0.5 percent in October. Sales rose 4.6 percent from a year ago.

Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales increased 0.3 percent last month. These so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product.

Data for September was revised lower to show core retail sales rising 0.3 percent instead of gaining 0.5 percent as previously reported. August core retail sales were also revised down to show them falling 0.2 percent instead of being unchanged.

While that suggests some loss of momentum in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, consumption remains underpinned by a strong labor market, characterized by a 3.7 percent unemployment rate.

The lowest unemployment rate in nearly 49 years is boosting wages, with annual wage growth recording its biggest increase in 9-1/2 years in October. Jobs market strength was underscored by a separate report from the Labor Department on Thursday showing a marginal increase in the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits last week.

“Solid job growth and wage increases are the main sources of support for consumer spending and so far, so good,” said Jennifer Lee, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.

Strong domestic demand and a tightening labor market support views that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates in December for the fourth time this year. The U.S. central bank last Thursday kept rates unchanged, but noted that data “indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate.”

The dollar was trading higher against a basket of currencies after Thursday’s data, while U.S. Treasury yields fell.

BROAD GAINS

The trend in retail sales, if sustained, could keep the economy on a solid growth path even as business investment is slowing, the trade deficit is expected to deteriorate further and the housing market continues to weaken.

The government reported last month that consumer spending expanded at its fastest pace in nearly four years in the third quarter. Given the downward revisions to core retail sales in August and September, the third-quarter consumer spending estimate is likely to be lowered when the government publishes its second estimate of gross domestic product later this month.

While the Commerce Department said it could not isolate the impact of Hurricane Florence, which lashed North and South Carolina in mid-September, on the retail sales, the storm probably boosted purchases of automobiles and building materials last month.

Auto sales jumped 1.1 percent last month likely as residents in areas affected by Florence replaced damaged cars. Auto sales fell 0.1 percent in September. Sales at building material stores surged 1.0 percent in October.

There were also increases in sales at clothing stores, online retailers and service stations last month. Americans also spent more on hobbies and at bookstores, while cutting back on furniture purchases.

But spending at restaurants and bars slipped 0.2 percent, likely hurt by Hurricane Michael, which soaked the Florida Panhandle in mid-October. Sales at restaurants and bars dropped 1.5 percent in September.

Other data on Thursday offered a mixed picture of the manufacturing sector in early November. The New York Fed said its Empire State general business conditions index rose to a reading of 23.3 this month from 21.1 in October.

A slight moderation in the new orders index was offset by strong increases in labor market measures.

Separately, a survey from the Philadelphia Fed showed a slowing in factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region this month, with its current general activity index tumbling to a reading of 12.9 from 22.2 in October amid a sharp slowdown in new orders.

Firms, however, remained upbeat about business conditions over the next six months. There was also a strong improvement in capital expenditure plans.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

Two years in, Trump holds stock market bragging rights

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally on the eve of the U.S. mid-term elections at the Show Me Center in Cape Girardeau, Missouri, U.S., November 5, 2018. REUTERS/Carlos Barria

By Noel Randewich

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump has taken credit for the stock market’s gains during his nearly two years in the White House, and those claims are reasonable given the impact of tax cuts and pro-business policies on investor sentiment.

The S&P 500 has risen 28 percent since Trump’s election in November 2016 to the eve of congressional midterm elections on Tuesday. This surpasses the market’s performance over the same time frame under any other president in the past 64 years. Under President Dwight Eisenhower, the S&P 500 rose 29 percent from his election in November 1952 through November 1954.

Sweeping corporate tax cuts, an initiative driven by Trump, supercharged U.S. companies’ earnings and helped lift the cash-rich technology sector. The Republican party last year passed the biggest overhaul of the U.S. tax code in over 30 years, boosting U.S. corporate earnings.

Still, other sectors that could have been expected to benefit strongly from a Trump presidency have lagged. Indeed, the individual stocks that have gained and lost the most during his reign have little discernable link to Trump’s presidency.

How the market shakes out in the final two years of Trump’s presidency will probably be influenced by Tuesday’s elections. Analysts expect pressure on stocks if Democrats gain control of the House of Representatives and a sharper downward reaction if they sweep the House and Senate.

On the contrary, if Republicans hold their ground, stocks could gain further, with hopes of more tax reform ahead.

Trump’s strong stock market record has been maintained even after a recent pullback on Wall Street as worries about trade battles, inflation, and rising interest rates have increased caution among investors. Starting in 2010 under President Barack Obama as the world recovered from the financial crisis, the S&P 500 has enjoyed its longest bull market in history.

With more than half of Trump’s presidency still to come, how the market will perform over his whole term is unknown. Democratic President Bill Clinton saw the S&P 500 triple during his two terms in the White House.

Average S&P 500 company earnings per share are on track to rise 24 percent this year, the strongest annual gain in eight years, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

Investor confidence stemming from the tax cuts and Trump’s other business-friendly policies so far have more than made up for ongoing worries on Wall Street that his trade conflict with China is hurting the U.S. economy, and that it could become worse.

The tax cuts also led Apple and other multinationals in the technology sector to repatriate billions of dollars in profits held overseas, some of which went toward buying back stock and sending Wall Street higher.

The S&P 500 information technology index has gained 51 percent since Trump’s election. Financials, which benefited from Trump’s deregulation of the banking industry, have climbed 34 percent since Nov 8, 2016.

Still, some companies that had been expected to boom under Trump have fared poorly. The S&P 500 energy index is flat since Trump’s election, even though crude prices rose over 50 percent during that time and despite Trump putting the brakes on Obama-era policies aimed at reducing the country’s reliance on oil.

Semiconductors have fared better than any other industry group, even though they are highly exposed to China and could become casualties in Trump’s trade war with Beijing.

Along with telecommunications, food and tobacco companies, automakers on average have fared worst among 27 industry group’s since Trump’s election. General Motors Co and Ford Motor Co have been wrestling for years with tepid global demand, with recent signs of a deep slowdown in China.

Industry groups are more detailed categories than the 11 sectors widely tracked on the stock market.

Interest rates, economic growth, company earnings and inflation are widely viewed as strong influences on stock prices, making who holds power in Washington just one of many factors affecting investor sentiment.

Abiomed Inc, the S&P 500’s top performer since Trump’s election, has jumped over 260 percent, helped in part by the success of its Impella heart pumps.

General Electric’s 68 percent loss makes it the S&P 500’s worst performer since Trump was elected. The former industrial powerhouse has foundered in several key markets in recent years and is aggressively cutting costs and selling businesses.

(Reporting by Noel Randewich; Editing by Megan Davies and Cynthia Osterman)

For Trump supporters, elections a battle for his vision of America

Supporters applaud U.S. President Donald Trump as he arrives to attend a campaign rally at Middle Georgia Regional Airport in Macon, Georgia, U.S., November 4, 2018. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo

By Maria Caspani, Julia Harte and Ned Parker

MACON, Ga. (Reuters) – For many Americans, Tuesday’s congressional midterm elections are a referendum on President Donald Trump’s divisive persona, hardline policies and pugnacious politics.

But at a Trump rally on Sunday in a crowded airport hangar in Macon, Georgia, and at other such events, the elections are a far different proposition: a vote to protect a leader supporters see as under siege, whose inflammatory rhetoric is a necessary price for a norm-shattering era of change.

“He is putting people back to work,” said Barbara Peacock, 58, a retired postal worker from Macon, Georgia, as she perused Trump 2020 merchandise. “He is telling it like it is.”

At rallies overflowing with red-hatted, mostly white supporters in conservative pockets of the country, she and many other Trump supporters credit the president with making the country – and their lives – better.

Rallying together, bedecked in Trump shirts and waving “Make America Great Again” and “Finish the Wall” signs, they hope to make Trump’s ideas the dominant force in American political life for decades to come.

They face strong headwinds. Nationally, about 52 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s performance. More people say they would vote for a Democratic candidate than a Republican in Tuesday’s congressional elections, Reuters/Ipsos polling shows.

But pro-Trump Republicans are eager to defy expectations, just as the president did with his 2016 victory.

In Grand Rapids, Michigan, pro-Trump activist Ben Hirschmann, 23, sees Tuesday’s elections as decisive for Trump’s vision of America.

“Trump’s not on the ballot, but he is on the ballot,” he said at a phone-bank event at the local Republican headquarters. “Everything we voted for in 2016 is on the line in 2018.”

Hirschmann is part of a group that organizes flash mobs at busy intersections in the Grand Rapids area, drawing 30 to 40 people about twice a week to hold campaign signs for Republican U.S. Senate candidate John James.

‘NOW WE’RE LIVING GOOD’

Trump has a clear strategy: drive Republican turnout by focusing on illegal immigration, as a caravan of migrants moves through Mexico toward the U.S. border, while playing up gains in the economy and casting his Democratic opponents as an angry, liberal and dangerous “mob.”

“The choice could not be more clear,” he told supporters at a rally in Missoula, Montana. “Democrats produce mobs, Republicans produce jobs.”

It is unclear if the strategy will work. Republicans are expected to keep control of the Senate. But Democrats are widely favored to win the 23 seats they need to assume control of the House of Representatives, where Republicans are defending dozens of seats in largely suburban districts where Trump’s popularity has languished and Democrats have performed well in presidential races.

Trump’s rallies have focused mostly on Senate and gubernatorial battles in states he won in the 2016 presidential race – from Florida and Missouri to West Virginia and Ohio. A Trump adviser, who asked not to be identified, told Reuters: “These are places where data and polling information tells us that the president is of best use.”

At a rally in Johnson City, Tennessee, in early October, Jessica Lotz, 33, and her fiance, Chad Lavery, said Trump’s immigration policies resonated with them. During the 2008 economic downturn, Lotz and Lavery said they saw construction, landscaping and house painting jobs go to illegal immigrants while they struggled financially.

As the economy rebounded, so, too, did their fortunes.

“Now we’re living good,” Lavery said, crediting their ability to find work and better wages to Trump, who inherited an economy that was already in one of the longest recoveries and gave it an additional boost with tax cuts.

‘FRUSTRATED’

After a Trump rally in September in Springfield, Missouri, pro-Trump activist Brenda Webb sat for a late dinner at a restaurant with five friends who had driven to the rally from the St. Louis suburbs.

Webb and her friends had joined protests against former President Barack Obama in St. Louis in 2009 that were part of a broader conservative“Tea Party” movement centered on calls for smaller government, lower taxes and fewer regulations.

But the energy fizzled, she said. The group became animated talking about how Trump had given new focus to those early Tea Party goals of reclaiming government for ordinary citizens, not just the “elites” in Washington.

“We feel like he’s working to resolve all the problems that we are so frustrated by,” Webb said.

At the Springfield rally, Brian Whorton, who drove a few hours to see the president, confessed he voted for Obama twice before becoming a Republican. “I was not politically aware and awake. I thought, oh he’s cool and he’s a good speaker and an African-American guy,” Whorton said.

Trump’s policies, he said, were making a difference for him: He said his factory manager had credited Trump tariffs with raising profits at his plant.

In Ohio, Republican National Committee spokeswoman Mandi Merritt referred to pro-Trump enthusiasts as a “grassroots army” that could be harnessed and dispatched to boost Republican voter turnout.

On a sunny day in October, Trump supporter Kimmy Kolkovich joined a friend on the sidewalk at a busy intersection near the Ohio Statehouse in Columbus to urge people to register and vote.

“Even if I’m registering people who are going to vote for the other party, they’re seeing us out here in our hats, and that’s what’s important, all the little interactions and conversations we’re having,” Kolkovich said.

For all Reuters election coverage, click: https://www.reuters.com/politics/election2018

(Reporting by Maria Caspani in Macon, Ga., Julia Harte in Grand Rapids, Mich. and Columbus, Ohio, and Ned Parker in Springfield, Mo., and Johnson City, Tenn.; Additional reporting by Steve Holland in Washington; Editing by Jason Szep, Colleen Jenkins and Peter Cooney)

U.S. online spending set to rise 14.8 percent in 2018 holiday season

FILE PHOTO - A worker gift wraps a holiday order for a customer at the Amazon Fulfillment Center in Tracy, California, November 29, 2015. REUTERS/Fred Greaves

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. online spending during the holiday shopping season is likely to grow 14.8 percent this year to $124.1 billion, far outpacing the 2.7 percent growth predicted for brick-and-mortar locations and highlighting the ongoing switch from stores to web shopping.

The forecast was released on Thursday by Adobe Analytics, the web analytics arm of Adobe Systems Inc. The company measures transactions from 80 of the top 100 U.S. retailers and trillions of customer visits to U.S. retail sites.

Online sales this year will benefit from an extra day between Cyber Monday to Christmas, which is likely to provide a $284 million sales boost, the report said.

Adobe also forecasts the best days for shopping online based on prices across product categories during previous years. For example, Thanksgiving is likely to be a good day to buy sporting goods as prices could be 13 percent lower than their average in the first 10 months of the year. Black Friday will still be a good option for television purchases as prices could be about 22 percent lower.

Apparel discounts could make items cheaper by 22 percent than average on Nov. 25, and toys are likely to be 19 percent cheaper on Cyber Monday, the report said.

The November and December holiday shopping season are critical for retailers, when they book an outsized portion of their annual sales and profits.

Overall U.S. holiday sales including stores and online in 2018 will increase by 4.3 percent to 4.8 percent from a year ago, when consumer spending surged to a 12-year high, according to The National Retail Federation.

The trade body said holiday sales growth will be higher than an average increase of 3.9 percent over the past five years but slower than last year’s 5.3 percent gain, when consumer spending grew the most since 2005, boosted by tax cuts.

(Reporting by Nandita Bose in New York; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)

U.S. job growth cools; unemployment rate falls to 3.7 percent

People wait in line at a stand during the Executive Branch Job Fair hosted by the Conservative Partnership Institute at the Dirksen Senate Office Building in Washington, U.S., June 15, 2018. REUTERS/Toya Sarno Jordan

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. job growth slowed sharply in September likely as Hurricane Florence depressed restaurant and retail payrolls, but the unemployment rate fell to near a 49-year low of 3.7 percent, pointing to a further tightening in labor market conditions.

The Labor Department’s closely watched monthly employment report on Friday also showed a steady rise in wages, suggesting moderate inflation pressures, which could ease concerns about the economy overheating and keep the Federal Reserve on a path of gradual interest rate increases.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 134,000 jobs last month, the fewest in a year, as the retail and leisure and hospitality sectors shed employment. Data for July and August were revised to show 87,000 more jobs added than previously reported.

The economy needs to create roughly 120,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population.

“The weaker gain in payrolls in September may partly reflect some hit from Hurricane Florence,” said Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics in New York. “There is little in this report to stop the Fed continuing to raise interest rates gradually.”

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls increasing by 185,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate falling one-tenth of a percentage point to 3.8 percent.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that the economy’s outlook was “remarkably positive” and he believed it was on the cusp of a “historically rare” era of ultra-low unemployment and tame inflation.

The U.S. central bank raised rates last week for the third time this year and removed the reference in its post-meeting statement to monetary policy remaining “accommodative.”

The Labor Department said it was possible that Hurricane Florence, which lashed South and North Carolina in mid-September, could have affected employment in some industries. It said it was impossible to quantify the net effect on employment.

Payrolls are calculated from a survey of employers, which treats any worker who was not paid for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th of the month as unemployed. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.5 hours in September.

The smaller survey of households from which the jobless rate is derived regards persons as employed regardless of whether they missed work during the reference week and were unpaid as result. It showed 299,000 people reported staying at home in September because of bad weather. About 1.5 million employees worked part-time because of the weather last month.

U.S. stock index futures briefly turned positive after the data before reversing course. The dollar <.DXY> was trading lower against a basket of currencies while U.S. Treasury yields were higher.

DIMINISHING SLACK

The drop of two-tenths of a percentage point in the unemployment rate from 3.9 percent in August pushed it to levels last seen in December 1969 and matched the Fed’s forecast of 3.7 percent by the end of this year.

Average hourly earnings increased 0.3 percent in September after a similar rise in August.

With September’s increase below the 0.5 percent gain notched during the same period last year, the annual rise in wages fell to 2.8 percent from 2.9 percent in August, which was the biggest advance in more than nine years.

Wage growth remains sufficient to keep inflation around the Fed’s 2 percent target. As more slack is squeezed out of the labor market, economists expect annual wage growth to hit 3 percent.

Last month, employment in the leisure and hospitality sector fell by 17,000 jobs, the first drop since September 2017. Retail payrolls dropped by 20,000 jobs in September.

Manufacturing payrolls increased by 18,000 in September after rising by 5,000 in August.

Construction companies hired 23,000 more workers last month after increasing payrolls by 26,000 jobs in August. Professional and business services employment increased by 54,000 jobs last month and government payrolls rose 13,000.

While surveys have shown manufacturers growing more concerned about an escalating trade war between the United States and China, it does not appear to have affected hiring. In fact, the Fed’s latest survey of national business conditions reflected concerns about labor shortages that are extending into non-skilled occupations as much as about tariffs.

Washington last month slapped tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, with Beijing retaliating with duties on $60 billion worth of U.S. products. The United States and China had already imposed tariffs on $50 billion worth of each other’s goods. The trilateral trade agreement between the United States, Canada and Mexico was salvaged in an 11th-hour deal on Sunday.

Despite the Trump administration’s protectionist trade policy, the trade deficit continues to deteriorate. The trade gap increased 6.4 percent to a six-month high of $53.2 billion in August, the Commerce Department reported on Friday.

The politically sensitive goods trade deficit with China surged 4.7 percent to a record high of $38.6 billion.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Leslie Adler and Paul Simao)

Record U.S. job openings, quits rate boost wage growth outlook

FILE PHOTO: People attend the Executive Branch Job Fair hosted by the Conservative Partnership Institute at the Dirksen Senate Office Building in Washington, U.S., June 15, 2018. REUTERS/Toya Sarno Jordan/File Photo

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. job openings surged to a record high in July and more Americans voluntarily quit their jobs, pointing to sustained labor market strength and confidence that could soon spur faster wage growth.

The Labor Department’s monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, released on Tuesday also suggested a further tightening in labor market conditions, with employers appearing to increasingly have trouble finding suitable workers.

While the tightening labor market could boost wage gains, some economists warned that worker shortages could over time negatively impact economic growth. The JOLTS report cemented expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its Sept. 25-26 policy meeting. The Fed has raised rates twice this year.

“The economic expansion is on a collision course with a lack of workers to man the shop floors, work the restaurants and stores at the shopping malls across America,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York. “No workers, no growth, it’s that simple.”

Job openings, a measure of labor demand, increased by 117,000 to a seasonally adjusted 6.9 million in July. That was the highest level since the series started in December 2000. The jobs openings rate was 4.4 percent, unchanged from the previous month and an all-time high first touched in April.

The current level of job openings means there is a job for every one of the 6.2 million people who were unemployed in August. Hiring was little changed at 5.7 million in July, keeping the hiring rate at 3.8 percent for a second straight month.

There were 46,000 unfilled jobs in the finance and insurance industry in July. Nondurable goods manufacturing had 32,000 vacancies. The job opening rate in the overall manufacturing industry climbed to a record high of 3.8 percent in July from 3.6 percent in June.

But job openings in the retail trade industry fell by 85,000. There were also decreases in education and federal government job vacancies in July.

WORKER SHORTAGES

The scarcity of workers was also corroborated by a survey of small businesses published on Tuesday. The NFIB survey found that job openings at small businesses hit a 45-year high in August. A record number of businesses reported they could not find qualified workers to fill open positions.

According to the NFIB, job openings were mostly prevalent in construction, manufacturing and wholesale trade. There was also a dearth of truck drivers.

“Looming shortages of qualified workers could prove detrimental to business expansion plans in coming months,” Dante DeAntonio, an economist with Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “In the meantime, the increasing tightness in the labor market is spurring more workers to re-enter the workforce as well as leave their jobs in search of better opportunities.”

The worker shortages, especially for truck drivers, are already contributing to bottlenecks in the supply chain, which could slow the vibrant economy. The economy grew at a 4.2 percent annualized rate in the second quarter, almost double the 2.2 percent pace set in the January-March period.

Growth this year is expected to top 3 percent.

The Labor Department’s JOLTS report also showed the robust labor market is giving Americans confidence to quit their jobs for other positions. The quits rate increased to 2.4 percent in July, the highest level since April 2001, from 2.3 percent in June. Fed officials look at the quits rate as a measure of job market confidence.

The increase in job mobility supports economists’ optimism that job growth may be finally on a faster path. The government last week reported a surge in annual wage growth in August, with average hourly earnings increasing 2.9 percent, the largest gain since June 2009, from 2.7 percent in July.

Wage gains have largely remained moderate even as the unemployment rate has dropped to near an 18-year low of 3.9 percent.

“Workers are leveraging the tighter labor market to find new opportunities and employers are poaching workers from other firms,” said Nick Bunker, an economist at job search website Indeed in Washington. “The next question is how more quitting will translate into higher wage growth.”

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao)

U.S. job growth surges; annual wage gain largest since 2009

A man holds his briefcase while waiting in line during a job fair in Melville, New York July 19, 2012. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. job growth accelerated in August and wages notched their largest annual increase in more than nine years, strengthening views that the economy was so far weathering the Trump administration’s escalating trade war with China.

The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report published on Friday also showed slack in the jobs market was rapidly diminishing, with a broader measure of unemployment falling to a level not seen since 2001. The report cemented expectations for a third interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve this year when policymakers meet on Sept. 25-26.

“The economy is on an adrenalin rush,” said Ryan Sweet, senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “Given the amount of fiscal stimulus that the economy is benefiting from, it’s going to take a lot to get it off that high.”

Nonfarm payrolls surged by 201,000 jobs last month, boosted by hiring at construction sites, wholesalers and professional and business services, the Labor Department said. There were also gains in transportation and healthcare employment.

Job growth averaged 185,000 per month in the past three months. The economy needs to create 120,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population.

Average hourly earnings increased 0.4 percent, or 10 cents in August after rising 0.3 percent in July. That raised the annual increase in wages to 2.9 percent in August, the largest gain since June 2009, from 2.7 percent in July.

A broader measure of unemployment, which includes people who want to work but have given up searching and those working part-time because they cannot find full-time employment, fell one-tenth of a percentage point to 7.4 percent, the lowest level since April 2001. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.9 percent.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast nonfarm payrolls increasing by 191,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate falling to 3.8 percent. The economy created 50,000 fewer jobs in June and July than previously reported.

The dollar firmed against a basket of currencies after the report, while U.S. Treasury yields rose. U.S. stock index futures extended losses.

Analysts say the administration’s $1.5 trillion tax cut package and increased government spending were shielding the economy from the trade tensions, which have also seen Washington engaged in tit-for-tat tariffs with other trade partners, including the European Union, Canada and Mexico.

They also note that the import duties implemented so far have affected only a small portion of the American economy, but warned this could change if President Donald Trump pressed ahead with additional tariffs on Chinese imports.

The United States and China have slapped retaliatory tariffs on a combined $100 billion of products since early July.

LIMITED IMPACT FROM TARIFFS

Americans had until Thursday to comment on a list of $200 billion worth of Chinese goods widely expected to be hit with tariffs soon. The government imposed import duties on goods including steel, aluminum, washing machines, lumber and solar panels early this year to protect American industries from what Trump says is unfair foreign competition.

Global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said on Thursday there were 521 tariff-related job cuts in August, but these were largely offset by the hiring of 359 workers by steel producers.

The employment report added to manufacturing and services industries surveys in suggesting the Trump administration’s protectionist trade policy was having a marginal impact on the economy for now. The economy grew at a 4.2 percent annualized rate in the second quarter, almost double the 2.2 percent pace set in the January-March period.

The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, fell two-tenths of a percentage point to 62.7 percent last month, putting a wrinkle on an otherwise upbeat employment report.

Job gains in August were almost across all sectors, though manufacturing payrolls fell by 3,000. That was the first drop since July 2017 and followed an increase of 18,000 in July. Manufacturing employment was weighed down by declines in machinery, computer and electronic products and motor vehicle and parts industries.

Construction companies hired 23,000 more workers last month. They increased payrolls by 18,000 jobs in July. Wholesalers added 22,400 jobs last month. Payrolls in the professional and business services industries rose by 53,000 jobs in August.

Employment at sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores rebounded by 9,200 jobs in August after shedding 30,300 jobs in July related to the closing of all Toys-R-Us stores.

But retail payrolls fell 5,900 last month and government shed 3,000.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

U.S. homebuilding slowing; labor market strong

FILE PHOTO: Construction workers are pictured building a new home in Vienna, Virginia, outside of Washington, October 20, 2014./File Photo

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. homebuilding rebounded less than expected from a nine-month low in July, suggesting the housing market was likely to tread water for the rest of this year against the backdrop of rising construction costs and labor shortages.

But the fundamentals for the housing market remain strong. New filings for jobless benefits fell again last week, other data showed on Thursday, pointing to sustained labor market strength despite an escalating trade war between the United States and China that has rattled financial markets.

“It is more expensive to buy a new home for the American worker,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York. “We cannot be confident that home construction will pick up in the near future.”

Housing starts rose 0.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.168 million units in July, the Commerce Department said. Starts fell to a nine-month low in June.

Groundbreaking activity increased in the Midwest and South, but dropped in the Northeast, and hit a more than 1-1/2-year low in the West. Last month’s increase in starts still left the bulk of June’s 12.9 percent plunge intact.

Building permits increased 1.5 percent to a rate of 1.311 million units, snapping three straight months of decreases. With permits now outpacing starts, homebuilding could pick up in the months ahead. But gains are likely to be limited as builders continue to complain about rising construction costs as well as shortages of skilled labor and land.

Lumber prices shot up after the Trump administration slapped anti-subsidy duties on imports of Canadian softwood lumber. Though prices have dropped in the past months, they remain high.

The housing market has underperformed a robust economy, with economists also blaming the slowdown on rising mortgage rates, which have combined with higher house prices to make home purchasing unaffordable for some first-time buyers.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has risen more than 50 basis points this year to an average of 4.53 percent, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac. While that is still low by historical standards, the rise has outpaced annual wage growth, which has been stuck below 3 percent.

At the same time, house prices have increased more than 6.0 percent on an annual basis, largely driven by a dearth of properties available for sale. Residential investment contracted in the first half of the year and economists do not expect housing to contribute to growth in the final six months of 2018.

The economy grew at a 4.1 percent annualized rate in the second quarter, the fastest in nearly four years and almost double the 2.2 percent pace logged in the January-March period.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast housing starts rising to a pace of 1.260 million units last month and permits increasing to a rate of 1.310 million units.

“Given the chronic lack of affordable housing and rapidly escalating home prices, it is worrisome that on a per capita basis, the country is producing new single-family housing stock at a rate that is similar to the trough of a typical recession,” said Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac.

The PHLX housing index <.HGX> was trading higher, tracking a broadly firmer U.S. stock market. The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies and U.S. Treasury prices fell.

TIGHT SUPPLY

Single-family home building, which accounts for the largest share of the housing market, rose 0.9 percent to a rate of 862,000 units in July. Single-family homebuilding has lost momentum since hitting a pace of 948,000 units last November, which was the strongest in more than 10 years.

Permits to build single-family homes jumped 1.9 percent in July to a pace of 869,000 units. Single-family building permits in the South, where more than half of homebuilding occurs, vaulted to an 11-year high in July.

Starts for the volatile multi-family housing segment gained 0.7 percent to a rate of 306,000 units in July. Permits for the construction of multi-family homes climbed 0.7 percent to a pace of 442,000 units.

With the moderate rise in homebuilding last month, housing inventory is likely to remain tight. In addition, housing completions fell for a third straight month, hitting an eight-month low rate of 1.188 million.

Realtors estimate that housing starts and completion rates need to be in a range of 1.5 million to 1.6 million units per month to plug the inventory gap. The stock of housing under construction was little changed at 1.122 million units.

In a separate report on Thursday, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 212,000 for the week ended Aug. 11.

The claims data is being closely watched for signs of layoffs as a result of the Trump administration’s protectionist trade policy, which has also led to tit-for-tat import tariffs with other trading partners, including the European Union, Canada, and Mexico.

There have been reports of some companies either laying off workers or planning to as a result of the import duties. But with many companies reporting difficulties finding qualified workers, the fallout from the trade tensions might be minimal.

A third report showed factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region slowing sharply in August as new orders growth cooled. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve said its business conditions index tumbled 14 points to a 21-month low of 11.9 this month. Manufacturers were, however, optimistic about business prospects over the next six months.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

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