Tag Archives: Economy

Middle-class Egypt adapts to survive as austerity bites

Middle-class Egypt adapts to survive as austerity bites

By Patrick Markey and Nadine Awadalla

CAIRO (Reuters) – Swapping new cars for cheaper models, cutting back on pricy supermarket shopping and giving up holidays abroad, middle-class Egyptians are finding strategies to stay afloat after a currency reform a year ago sent their living costs soaring.

Egypt floated its pound in November 2016 as part of a $12 billion International Monetary Fund loan package, and the currency lost half its value, eroding spending power and pushing inflation to record highs over 30 percent this summer.

President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s government has been praised by IMF and World Bank economists for reform progress and for measures to shield the poorest from the fallout. But middle-income Egyptians say it has been a year of cutbacks, cost saving and crisis management.

Presidential elections are due early next year and Sisi is expected to seek another term. But some Egyptians are finding that their new economic reality is crowding out politics as they struggle to maintain standards.

Others are digging deep and insist that despite the pain of austerity, Sisi remains the only candidate to provide stability after the years of turmoil that followed the 2011 uprising that ousted Hosni Mubarak.

Overcoming voter apathy may be a challenge if the former military commander decides to run when critics say he will face little competition after what rights groups describe as an unprecedented crackdown on opponents and dissidents.

Low turnout was a worry in 2014, when Sisi won by a landslide, as a popular figure who had overthrown president Mohamed Mursi of the Muslim Brotherhood after mass protests the previous year.

“The rise in prices changed things,” said Ayman, a Cairo bookstore owner. “We hoped for good things from President Sisi … He is a good man and I voted for him, but we are not feeling the progress, all I care about is giving my son a good life, a good home.”

Economic reforms have come at a fast pace.

The IMF deal called for broad adjustments to Egypt’s state subsidies to slash deficits as part of Sisi’s promise to revive an economy hit hard by unrest, protests and militant attacks in the last six years.

Backed by the IMF and the World Bank, Sisi’s government says the overhaul will lead to long-term growth and the return of foreign investment. Officials have adopted programs to provide the poor and vulnerable with cash and other protections.

Still, fuel costs have doubled with two increases in subsidized prices. Electricity prices are up and a new tax helped push inflation to more than 30 percent in July. That has now eased to 25 percent and is expected to fall further soon. But it has been a crushing struggle for some.

Hisham Azz al Arab, chairman of Egypt’s largest private bank CIB, said those on middle and upper incomes were the most affected by the economic reforms, but it would take time for their impact to balance out for those families.

“We saw that clearly in their behavior of spending, it started to change,” he told CNBC. “For the middle and upper class it is a matter of time before income and productivity start to catch up to pre-reform levels.”

A 2016 World Bank survey found the middle class represented around 10 percent of the country’s population of about 90 million just before the Arab Spring protests. Middle-class activists were among the leaders of the 2011 uprising.

CUTBACKS, BARGAINS

For professionals like Karim, a Cairo small business owner, it was a stark adjustment. Monthly food bills went from 1,200 pounds ($67) to 3,200 pounds ($179). That meant for the first time bargain-hunting for food, giving up luxury goods, and using the car less to cut back on fuel spending.

It also meant paying employees more to keep them, while at the same time making sacrifices to keep his children in school.

“The middle class has only two options, fall into the lower class, which is hard for them to do, or get more enterprising,” he said. “Everyone is trying to show they are still in the middle class, people want to tell themselves that.”

For others, maintaining a middle-class lifestyle has meant dipping into savings and giving up restaurants or even turning to relatives for help with the cost of family holidays.

“It’s extinct,” said Islam Askar, a contracting company owner, of the country’s middle class. “There isn’t a household in Egypt that hasn’t been hit by the decrease in the pound and the rise in the prices.”

Economists say middle-class erosion had been reflected in figures for car sales, the weakness in some consumer stocks and in outbound tourism.

For some, like Mahmoud Al-Abadaly, hunting for bargains among the crash-damaged vehicles at a second-hand car shop, politics comes second to cash considerations. A car normally worth 300,000 pounds ($17,000) can be fixed up and had for half that price, he said.

“When a car has been in an accident, its price drops,” he said. “Everyone is trying to do this now because they need to save.”

But Egypt’s inflation outlook is already improving a year after the float, falling to 26 percent in November. Finance Minister Amr el-Garhy said that would fall to around 14 percent by August next year.

What impact a year of austerity will have on Sisi’s popularity is unclear. He has yet to announce his intentions, though supporters have already started a petition campaign for him to run for a second term. For his hardcore backers, it is time to rally behind him despite hard times.

“I will be for Sisi again for the presidency even with inflation, rising prices and the poor state of the economy,” said Ali Abou Al-Saoud, a sales representative.

But some of the president’s high-profile backers have turned against him, partly over the economy.

Turnout may be key for credibility, analysts say, as the government rebrands Egypt as a more stable bet for foreign investment after years of unrest. In 2014, turnout was about 47 percent, less than Sisi had called for.

At the time, Sisi was idolized by many, although his support base has since slipped, critics say. However, protests are now restricted by law and secular activists have been rounded up. Other Egyptians say political fatigue has set in.

“There is still a strong sense of wanting to maintain and enjoy the relative security,” said Ziad Bahaa Eldin, a deputy former prime minister who now works as an economist. “People are suffering from inflation but they want stability.”

(Reporting by Patrick Markey; editing by Giles Elgood)

Dollar drops on disappointing U.S. inflation data

Dollar drops on disappointing U.S. inflation data

By Karen Brettell

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar weakened on Wednesday after consumer price data showed sluggish inflation, adding to concerns the Federal Reserve will be less able to execute multiple rate increases next year.

Excluding the volatile food and energy components, consumer prices ticked up 0.1 percent in November, with the annual increase in the core CPI slowing to 1.7 percent in November from 1.8 percent in October.

“The focus is on the core measure of inflation, that came in weaker than the market expected,” said Vassili Serebriakov, a foreign exchange strategist at Credit Agricole in New York.

The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies <.DXY> dropped to 93.888, down 0.23 percent on the day.

The weak data comes before a widely expected rate hike on Wednesday, when the U.S. central bank concludes its two-day meeting.

“It will probably reinforce the caution of the committee members that are concerned that the Fed is falling short of its inflation target,” Serebriakov said. “It also supports our view that the Fed will be fairly gradual next year.”

The Fed will announce its decision on rates at 1900 GMT on Wednesday followed by a statement. Chair Janet Yellen will hold a news conference at 1930 GMT.

The Fed on Wednesday may also give its strongest hint yet on how the Trump administration’s tax overhaul could affect the U.S. economy.

Investors will pay close attention to how the central bank aims to balance a stimulus-fueled economic boost with the ongoing weak inflation and tepid wage growth that has curbed some policymakers’ appetite for higher rates.

President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda may be harder to push through, however, following Tuesday’s victory by Democrat Doug Jones in the bitter fight for a U.S. Senate seat in deeply conservative Alabama.

(Additional reporting by Saikat Chatterjee in London; Editing by Nick Zieminski)

Special Report: Unfettered construction raises U.S. hurricane costs

Special Report: Unfettered construction raises U.S. hurricane costs

By Benjamin Lesser and Ryan McNeill

PATTON VILLAGE, Texas (Reuters) – When Hurricane Harvey sent two feet of water rolling into this small community about 35 miles north of Houston, Alfredo Becerra had to flee his modest 1,500-square-foot house.

Muddy floodwater submerged the furniture and ruined carpet inside the construction worker’s longtime home. He has been living in temporary housing since the storm struck in August. He said the Federal Emergency Management Agency gave him $15,000 in aid.

One month later, across the Gulf of Mexico in Big Pine Key, Florida, moving company driver Byron Keeble lost about $10,000 worth of belongings, including a new sofa and his television, when Hurricane Irma sent a surge of seawater through his rented ground-floor apartment. Keeble said FEMA paid for him to stay in a hotel for a few weeks while he tried to figure out where he would go next.

Floodwaters aren’t the only common thread in the two men’s stories. Also linking them is this: Neither should have been living in harm’s way.

Becerra’s and Keeble’s homes were built or rented out in violation of National Flood Insurance Program rules. Like thousands of others in the hurricane-ravaged Florida Keys and on the Texas Gulf Coast, such houses are undermining efforts to limit flood damage, lower the cost of disaster assistance and reduce claims on the taxpayer-backed federal flood insurance program, a Reuters investigation found.

Similar rule-busting construction has happened in scores of communities across the United States, where local, state and federal officials have failed to enforce regulations intended to restrict building in areas at high risk of flooding.

Across the country, newer construction in flood-prone areas generated more than $9 billion in claims for structural damage on the cash-strapped flood insurance program between 2000 and 2015. Flood-management authorities say that some of those claims probably never would have been filed had proper building controls and accurate flood maps been in place.

“You look at the media images and you see new subdivisions, new strip malls and new buildings with water up to the rooftop. Those are red flags in my mind. Those shouldn’t be happening,” said Paul Osman, floodplain program manager for the Illinois Office of Water Resources.

Controlling construction inside flood-prone areas is critical to keeping flood insurance affordable and reducing post-disaster costs, federal officials say. The primary tool used to ensure communities are doing so effectively is a system of audits of how localities adhere to their own floodplain-management rules. But that system is crippled by a lack of funding and political will, Reuters found in a review of thousands of federal and state documents and dozens of interviews with flood-management authorities.

Many communities go years without these audits, which are conducted by FEMA or state officials and known as community assistance visits. And when serious problems are uncovered, Reuters found, FEMA has been ineffective in forcing communities to fix them.

Hurricanes Irma, which devastated Florida, and Harvey, which inundated vast sections of Texas, have already generated almost $7 billion in flood insurance claims paid. Houston, where $1.3 billion of those claims originated, has not had an audit in at least eight years.

FEMA has leverage: It oversees the National Flood Insurance Program, and can use it to punish a community that fails for years to address problems. The first sanction is probation, which imposes on all policyholders in the community a $50-a-year surcharge on flood insurance premiums until violations are resolved. If the issues aren’t fixed, FEMA can impose a tougher measure: The entire community can be suspended altogether, and all property owners lose access to flood insurance.

Residents and floodplain-management officials told Reuters they think FEMA is reluctant to use these sanctions, however. Of the 22,000 communities participating in the flood insurance program, four are now suspended for failing to enforce floodplain-management rules. Thirty have been suspended for that reason since 1978.

FEMA’s desire is to keep a community in the program “as long as there is any hope of compliance” to avoid stopping regulation altogether, said Rachel Sears, director of FEMA’s floodplain-management division. “We want to keep that relationship intact,” she said. “We only move toward probation or suspension when there is no further hope.”

UNCHECKED RISKS

When Irma made landfall in the Florida Keys, the region was filled with thousands of homes that federal or state officials suspected of having illegal ground-floor enclosures. Those code-breaking homes were unaddressed despite decades of prodding from FEMA.

It is difficult to quantify the costs to taxpayers from the failure to control development in high-risk areas. FEMA doesn’t ask insurance agents and adjusters to identify illegal structures when reviewing claims. And homeowners are allowed to claim losses for a prescribed list of items, including washers and dryers, even if they had been kept in an illegal basement or low-lying enclosure.

All of this stresses an insurance program that the Government Accountability Office, a congressional watchdog, considers to be at high risk of fraud, waste and mismanagement. Until recently, the National Flood Insurance Program owed $25 billion to U.S. taxpayers because it borrowed to cover past disaster losses. In August, President Donald Trump signed a disaster relief bill that forgave $16 billion of that debt. Congress is still considering a long-term fix to the program.

Eric Letvin, a deputy assistant administrator for the National Flood Insurance Program, said he thinks FEMA is largely successful at ensuring communities control risky development. But he acknowledged the agency could do better.

“It’s one of the areas I want to focus on for improvement, especially in the post-disaster environment,” he said.

Only 23 percent of the more than 22,000 communities that participate in the flood insurance program had an audit by federal or state floodplain-management authorities in the eight years ending in 2016, FEMA documents show.

Some communities may not need an audit: They have little new development or a low risk of flooding. But the list of areas without a recent visit includes fast-growing major cities like Miami and Houston, each of which has seen severe flooding recently.

In interviews with Reuters, state and local officials in Texas could not recall the last time federal or state auditors visited Houston, but it has been at least eight years.

“I don’t know,” said Jamila Johnson, who took the helm of the city’s floodplain office in 2009. “That was before I became the city’s floodplain manager.”

FEMA recommends to each state that an auditor visit all high-risk communities every five years. In its 2010 risk ratings, it listed Houston as the top priority in Texas for auditing.

Texas is not alone. In 13 of 50 states, no federal or state auditor visited the highest-risk community between 2009 and 2016, a Reuters review of FEMA documents found.

FEMA isn’t keeping up, either. Despite its own guidance requiring it to produce community risk ratings annually, it hasn’t done so since 2010.

Meanwhile, building continues in many flood-prone areas. There is no comprehensive way to quantify flood damage to properties built illegally. But if newer structures are built in adherence with the rules, flood specialists said, such buildings should rarely flood. Communities with many illegal buildings or inaccurate maps, on the other hand, are likely to have a high percentage of flood insurance claims from new structures in risky areas.

A Reuters analysis of all flood insurance claims filed between 2000 and 2015 found that, nationwide, 27 percent of claims in high-risk areas came from owners of newer structures. States with a high percentage of such claims included Alabama (59 percent), Mississippi (50 percent), and North Carolina (44 percent).

About 41 percent of claims in Florida and 31 percent in Texas came from newer structures.

The total cost of insurance claims for structural damage to new buildings in risky areas, in adjusted 2017 dollars: $9.5 billion.

On top of that, as in the cases of Becerra and Keeble, FEMA sometimes doles out disaster aid. Data are not available to ascertain how much of that aid goes to people living in illegal structures.

Such losses suggest something is awry, floodplain managers and researchers said. Either the community is failing to enforce its floodplain-management rules, or maps do not accurately detail the community’s flood risk.

FEMA delegates the job of conducting most audits to state officials. Those officials, in turn, say they lack resources to visit more communities. For each of the past five budget years, FEMA has allotted a total of $10.4 million to the states and territories, which must match 25 percent of the money. But the dollars must also be spent on other initiatives, such as public outreach.

The number and frequency of visits varies widely by state. In Florida, FEMA and state officials have visited 64 percent of the communities participating in the flood insurance program. In Texas, the number is 12 percent.

Alfredo Becerra’s flooded home is but one example Reuters found of the results of decades of lax oversight in the Houston area.

Becerra’s property is in a floodway – an area that carries the bulk of any floodwaters downstream and where the most destructive damage is likely. Under FEMA regulations, when Becerra built his home in 1985, Patton Village officials should have required that the house be certified as standing at an elevation above expected flood levels. City officials were also obliged under FEMA rules to require an engineering study to prove the structure wouldn’t cause floodwaters to rise even higher, damaging other properties.

Patton Village officials had no records indicating any of those steps were taken. Becerra said he did not know his property was in a floodway.

He received temporary housing assistance that paid for his stay in a hotel for at least two weeks. He says he also received $15,000 in federal disaster aid to repair the damage to his home. He did not have flood insurance.

Leah Tarrant, the mayor of Patton Village since 2013, acknowledges the village hasn’t done its part to control development.

“Honestly, we have never really dealt with floodplain management,” she said. “I’m just being honest with you.”

In surrounding Montgomery County, dozens of properties in multiple communities were built after official flood maps detailed the floodway and floodplain boundaries, according to a March 2017 FEMA audit of the county and a Reuters analysis of appraisal records and flood maps. Many of the houses had no evidence of the required hydrologic studies or proof that the building’s lowest floor exceeded the expected heights of floodwaters. Some flooded during Harvey.

Most of the properties identified by Reuters are in unincorporated areas, which fall under the jurisdiction of county government.

When questioned about the floodway structures, Mark Mooney, the county’s floodplain manager, said the county banned development in the floodway until 2014. He said he couldn’t explain how, if such a ban was in place, so many homes had been built inside the floodway over the last three decades.

“Some of the listed properties could have been constructed without the county being contacted for necessary permits,” Mooney said. “Unfortunately, we do not have a staff that can police daily, when and where everything gets built in our large county. We will definitely follow up.”

RESISTANCE AND POLITICS

Reuters obtained documents from FEMA summarizing the results of 6,253 audits of floodplain-management enforcement conducted between 2009 and 2016 in all 50 states. Auditors identified serious issues in 13 percent of those visits.

It often takes years, or even decades, to bring a community into compliance after an audit failure. As of Jan. 1, 2017, serious violations remained unresolved for three years or longer in 119 communities across the country. That list includes places at high risk of flooding such as Boca Raton, Florida, and St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana.

Monroe County, Florida, where FEMA spent decades trying to eliminate illegal construction, shows why so many known problems persist: Community resistance and politics often impede enforcement efforts.

Years before Hurricane Irma struck the county, authorities identified thousands of suspected illegal enclosures. By the time the storm hit, they had not yet inspected half of those properties to see if they complied with floodplain codes. As of the end of November, the county’s property owners had been paid $62 million in insurance claims for flood damage from Irma.

FEMA first noticed problems in Monroe County during two visits in the 1980s. But the county’s leadership was uncooperative and remained so for years, said Brad Loar, who retired in 2014 as director of the FEMA Region IV mitigation division.

“They pretty much resisted anything that we wanted to talk to them about,” said Loar, who was involved in the first FEMA visit in 1982. “We didn’t see a whole lot of understanding or corrective action for most of the whole thing.”

What auditors found in Monroe County is typical of the Florida Keys. Living space in high-risk areas is supposed to be elevated above expected 100-year floodwater heights. Here, though, property owners often furnish ground-floor enclosures, either to expand their living space or to rent out the extra rooms. The low-rent enclosures are popular with the waiters, cooks, maids and other service industry workers essential to the area’s tourism industry.

When FEMA officials returned to audit Monroe County a third time in 1995, they found the illegal living spaces had become so widespread that sanctions were warranted.

Had FEMA placed Monroe County on probation after the 1995 visit, the agency would have put one of the most hurricane-prone areas in the country on the road to losing flood insurance. Instead, FEMA pressured the county to agree in 2002 to a pilot project that called for inspections of about 5,700 properties.

Property owners with insurance were told they needed to request an inspection from the county before renewing their policies. Also, owners of the 5,700 properties who sought a building permit for any reason had to agree to an inspection.

The inspection program caused a row in county politics that lasted 11 years. Although county government had begun cooperating with FEMA, contractors complained that the inspections deterred residents from upgrading their homes. Residents complained they couldn’t sell their places. Local, state and federal officials faced calls from residents and contractors to end the inspections.

In 2011, homeowners and contractors lobbied the Florida legislature to ban local authorities from conducting the building-permit inspections. FEMA officials argued against the legislation until, local activists said, U.S. Senator Bill Nelson, a Florida Democrat, stepped in and pressured the agency to back off.

“It was huge,” lobbyist John November said of Nelson’s involvement. “Without his participation … that pilot program might still be going on.”

By the time the pilot program ended in 2013, only half of the 5,700 properties FEMA suspected of having illegal enclosures had been inspected.

Despite the lingering problems, Monroe County is a FEMA poster child. The agency describes the community as “one of the best examples” of compliance in the country.

(Additional reporting by Gary McWilliams. Edited by Janet Roberts.)

Strong U.S. job growth in November bolsters economy’s outlook

Strong U.S. job growth in November bolsters economy's outlook

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. job growth increased at a strong clip in November, painting a portrait of a healthy economy that analysts say does not require the kind of fiscal stimulus that President Donald Trump is proposing, even though wage gains remain moderate.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 228,000 jobs last month amid broad gains in hiring as the distortions from the recent hurricanes faded, Labor Department data showed on Friday. The government revised data for October to show the economy adding 244,000 jobs instead of the previously reported 261,000 positions.

November’s report was the first clean reading since the storms, which also impacted September’s employment data.

Average hourly earnings rose five cents or 0.2 percent in November after dipping 0.1 percent the prior month. That lifted the annual increase in wages to 2.5 percent from 2.3 percent in October. Workers also put in more hours last month.

The unemployment rate was unchanged at a 17-year low of 4.1 percent amid a rise in the labor force. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls rising by 200,000 jobs last month.

The fairly upbeat report underscored the economy’s strength and could fuel criticism of efforts by Trump and his fellow Republicans in the U.S. Congress to slash the corporate income tax rate to 20 percent from 35 percent.

“The labor market is in great shape. Tax cuts should be used when the economy needs tax cuts and it doesn’t need tax cuts right now,” said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pennsylvania. “When politics and economics are mixed in the stew, the policies that are created often have a very awful smell.”

Republicans argue that the proposed tax cut package will boost the economy and allow companies to hire more workers. But with the labor market near full employment and companies reporting difficulties finding qualified workers, most economists disagree. Job openings are near a record high.

The White House said the strong jobs report was a sign that “Trump’s bold economic vision continues to pay off.” The Democratic Party, however, said Republicans are handing working American families a “bad deal.”

The economy grew at a 3.3 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, the fastest in three years, and appears to have maintained the momentum early in the October-December quarter.

The average workweek rose to 34.5 hours in November, the longest in five months, from 34.4 hours in October. Aggregate weekly hours worked surged 0.5 percent last month after October’s 0.3 percent gain.

“A six-minute increase in the work week does not sound like much, but given the size of the labor market, it turns out to be significant in terms of output,” said Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York.

The dollar was trading higher against a basket of currencies, while prices for U.S. Treasuries fell. Stocks on Wall Street rose.

FULL EMPLOYMENT

While November’s employment report had no impact on expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its Dec. 12-13 policy meeting, it could help shape the debate on monetary policy next year.

The U.S. central bank has increased borrowing costs twice this year and has forecast three rate hikes in 2018.

Employment growth has averaged 174,000 jobs per month this year, down from the average monthly gain of 187,000 in 2016. A slowdown in job growth is normal when the labor market nears full employment.

The economy needs to create 75,000 to 100,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population.

The unemployment rate has declined by seven-tenths of a percentage point this year. A broader measure of unemployment, which includes people who want to work but have given up searching and those working part time because they cannot find full-time employment, ticked up to 8.0 percent last month from a near 11-year low of 7.9 percent in October.

Economists believe shrinking labor market slack will unleash a faster pace of wage growth next year. Higher wages and tax cuts will fuel inflation.

Some say wage growth is being understated.

“Most recognize that average hourly earnings is a flawed gauge of wages, since it is currently being held down by the fact that higher-paid older workers are retiring,” said Michelle Girard, chief economist at NatWest Markets in Stamford, Connecticut.

The growth in employment was broad in November. Construction payrolls increased by 24,000 jobs, thanks in part to rebuilding efforts in the areas devastated by the hurricanes, after rising 10,000 in October.

Manufacturing scored another month of solid job gains, with payrolls increasing by 31,000 jobs after rising 23,000 in the prior month. Retail payrolls grew by 18,700 jobs last month, the largest gain since January. Employment at department stores increased by 3,100 jobs, likely boosted by hiring for the holiday season.

Retailers, including Macy’s Inc, <M.N> reported strong Black Friday sales. Macy’s said this month it would hire an additional 7,000 temporary workers for its stores to deal with heavy customer traffic in the run-up to Christmas.

(Dashboard of 8 major unemployment indicators interactive: http://tmsnrt.rs/1jDeEdW)

(Demographic breakdown of the U.S. Jobs market interactive: http://tmsnrt.rs/2drc2A2)

(Sector breakdown of the U.S. jobs market interactive: http://tmsnrt.rs/2drejuZ)

(Charting participation rates in the U.S. labor market interactive: http://tmsnrt.rs/2drf1IJ)

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

Britain and EU clinch Brexit ‘breakthrough’ with move to trade talks

Britain and EU clinch Brexit 'breakthrough' with move to trade talks

By Alastair Macdonald and Gabriela Baczynska

BRUSSELS (Reuters) – Britain and the European Union struck a divorce deal on Friday that paves the way for arduous trade talks, easing immediate pressure on Prime Minister Theresa May and boosting hopes of an orderly Brexit.

May rushed to Brussels before dawn to seal European Commission agreement that “sufficient progress” had been made to begin talks about trade and a two-year Brexit transition period that will start when Britain leaves the EU on March 29, 2019.

Negotiators in London, Brussels and Dublin worked through the night before breaking an impasse over the status of the Irish border, the last major obstacle to the opening of trade talks which EU leaders are due to bless at summit on Dec. 14-15.

Speaking before sunrise at the EU’s executive headquarters in Brussels after a hurried flight on a Royal Air Force plane, May said opening up trade talks would bring certainty for citizens and businesses about Britain’s future after quitting the EU.

“The most difficult challenge is still ahead,” European Council President Donald Tusk cautioned. “We all know that breaking up is hard. But breaking up and building a new relationship is much harder.”

May, looking weary after just a couple of hours sleep, spoke after European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker announced the breakthrough first in English and then in German and French.

The move to trade talks 18 months after the United Kingdom’s shock vote to exit the EU allayed some fears of a disorderly Brexit that could disrupt trade between the world’s biggest trading bloc and its sixth-largest national economy.

Sterling climbed to a six-month high against the euro <EURGBP=D3> on Friday before it fell back around midday to sit broadly flat, with one euro worth 87.4 pence, while bond yields across the euro zone rose. Against the U.S. dollar <GBP=D3> the pound also weakened.

BREXIT DIVORCE?

Facing 27 other members of the bloc, May largely conceded to the EU on structure, timetable and substance of the negotiations.

Moving to talks about trade and a Brexit transition was crucial for May’s own future after her premiership was thrown into doubt when she lost the ruling Conservative Party its majority in a snap election in June, unwisely called.

“I very much welcome the prospect of moving ahead,” said May, a 61-year-old Anglican vicar’s daughter who herself voted to stay in the EU in a referendum in June 2016 but has repeatedly insisted Britain will make a success of Brexit.

One senior British banker said the deal signaled that May would stay in power for now and that Britain was heading towards a much closer post-Brexit relationship with the EU than many had feared.

Draft guidelines showed the transition period, which would start on March 29, 2019, would last around two years. During that time, Britain will remain part of the customs union and single market but will no longer take part in EU institutions or have a vote.

It will also still be subject to EU law.

Pro-Brexit Conservative lawmakers rallied around her after the overnight deal, a possible signal that the party – which has been split over EU membership for generations – was not preparing to ditch her immediately despite the June election fiasco.

British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, who spearheaded the Brexit campaign, congratulated May, adding that Britain would now take back control of its laws, money and borders.

Supporters of a radical Brexit were tougher.

Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage struck a jarring note saying it was extraordinary a British premier had conceded so much in the middle of the night, agreeing to all the demands of Juncker, Tusk and EU negotiator Michel Barnier.

“The British prime minister has to fly through the middle of the night to go and meet three unelected people, who condescendingly say: ‘Now jolly well done May, you’ve met every single one of our demands, thank you very much, we can now move on to the next stage’.”

“BREAKTHROUGH”

The EU had insisted it would only move to trade talks if there was enough progress on three key issues: the money Britain must pay to the EU; rights for EU citizens in Britain and British citizens in the EU; and how to avoid a hard border with Ireland.

“I believe we have now made the breakthrough we needed,” Juncker said.

The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said it was not possible to put a concrete figure on the amount of money Britain will have to pay. Britain has said the divorce bill will cost it between 35 and 39 billion pounds.

On citizens rights, London and Brussels agreed to offer equal treatment on social security, health care, employment and education and that Britain will enable its judges to ask the European Court of Justice to weigh in when necessary for eight years after Brexit.

But the crucial breakthrough was on the future of the 310-mile (500 kms) UK-EU land border on the island of Ireland. The Northern Irish party which props up May’s minority government vetoed a draft deal on Monday.

May worked through most of the night, grabbing just a couple of hours sleep, as she worked the phones from Downing Street to secure agreement from Dublin, Brussels and the Democratic Unionist Party for her deal on the border.

They agreed to avoid a hard border which might upset the peace established after decades of violence, but said the details would be agreed as part of talks about the future relationship, according to a 15-page negotiators report.

In the text, Britain agreed that should London and Brussels fail to agree a final Brexit deal, the United Kingdom will maintain “full alignment” with those rules of the internal market and customs union that help protect north-south cooperation in Ireland.

“In all circumstances, the United Kingdom will continue to ensure the same unfettered access for Northern Ireland’s businesses to the whole of the United Kingdom internal market,” it said. .

The Democratic Unionist Party gave only a conditional endorsement of the new terms, four days after 11th-hour objections from Belfast scuppered May’s attempt to sign off on an accord over the Irish border.

“We cautioned the Prime Minister about proceeding with this agreement in its present form given the issues which still need to be resolved,” Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) leader Arlene Foster said.

“Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed and how we vote on the final deal will depend on its contents.”

(Writing by Guy Faulconbridge and Kate Holton in London; Additional reporting by Alistair Smout, William James, Costas Pitas and Andrew MacAskill in London, Padraic Halpin in Dublin, and; Editing by Richard Balmforth)

U.S. private employment growth eases but manufacturing shines: ADP

U.S. private employment growth eases but manufacturing shines: ADP

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. private-sector employment growth eased in November even as the manufacturing sector added the most jobs in at least 15 years, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Wednesday.

Private employers added 190,000 jobs last month, down from an unrevised 235,000 in October, the ADP National Employment Report showed. That was roughly in line with expectations for a gain of 185,000 jobs in a Reuters poll of economists, with estimates ranging from 150,000 to 240,000.

The report is jointly developed with Moody’s Analytics.

“The job market is red hot, with broad-based job gains across industries and company sizes. The only soft spots are in industries being disrupted by technology, brick-and-mortar retailing being the best example,” Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said in a statement. “There is a mounting threat that the job market will overheat next year.”

Among goods-producing sectors, manufacturing added 40,000 jobs, the most in the ADP series history dating back more than 15 years, while construction shed 4,000.

Services-sector employment gains led the advance, with the largest increase coming in education and health services at 54,000, followed by professional and business services at 47,000.

Midsized businesses, defined as employing between 50 and 499 people, added 99,000 jobs, while small-employer employment rose by 50,000 and large companies increased their workforces by 41,000.

The ADP figures come ahead of the U.S. Labor Department’s more comprehensive non-farm payrolls report on Friday, which includes both public and private-sector employment.

Economists polled by Reuters are looking for U.S. private payroll employment to have grown by 190,000 jobs in November, down from 252,000 the month before. Total non-farm employment is expected to have risen by 200,000.

The unemployment rate is forecast to stay steady at the 4.1 percent recorded a month earlier.

(Reporting by Dan Burns; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

U.S. trade hits nine-month high; oil prices lift imports

U.S. trade hits nine-month high; oil prices lift imports

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. trade deficit increased to a nine-month high in October due to rising oil prices and the widening of America’s long-standing deficits with China and Mexico.

The worsening trade deficit came even as exports to China and Mexico were the strongest in more than three years, which some economists said challenged the Trump administration’s argument that the United States was being disadvantaged in its dealings with trade partners.

“This leaves the Trump economics team empty handed when it comes to its mission to improve the unfair terms of trade which sent factories offshore starting a couple of decades ago,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York.

The Commerce Department said on Tuesday the trade gap widened 8.6 percent to $48.7 billion, the highest level since January. The politically sensitive U.S.-China trade deficit increased 1.7 percent to $35.2 billion and the deficit with Mexico surged 15.9 percent to $6.6 billion.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the overall trade deficit rising to $47.5 billion in October. U.S. financial markets were little moved by the large trade shortfall, which was flagged in an advance report last week.

Republican President Donald Trump has blamed the trade deficit for the massive loss of U.S. manufacturing jobs as well as moderate economic growth. Trump has ordered the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which was signed in 1994 by the United States, Canada and Mexico.

He told a group of pro-NAFTA Republican senators during lunch on Tuesday that the United States had trade deficits with “everybody.”

“And that’s going to be changing – it’s already changing – but it’s going to be changing fast,” Trump said, adding that NAFTA negotiations were “going to be very successful.”

NAFTA talks have stalled, with Mexico and Canada rejecting a U.S. proposal to raise the minimum threshold for autos to 85 percent North American content from 62.5 percent as well as to require half of vehicle content to be from the United States.

TRADE DRAG

When adjusted for inflation, the trade deficit increased to $65.3 billion, also the largest since January, from $62.2 billion in September. The so-called real trade deficit in October was above the third-quarter average of $62.0 billion, suggesting that trade could subtract from gross domestic product in the October-December quarter.

The government reported last month that trade contributed 0.43 percentage point to the economy’s 3.3 percent annualized growth pace in the third quarter. The Trump administration believes a smaller trade deficit, together with deeper tax cuts could boost annual GDP growth to 3 percent on a sustained basis.

Republicans in the U.S. Congress have approved a broad package of tax cuts, including slashing the corporate income tax rate to 20 percent from 35 percent. But the planned fiscal stimulus will come at a time when the economy is at full employment, which will boost imports and widen the trade gap.

“While U.S. domestic demand will strengthen, foreign producers will supply an increased share,” said Mickey Levy, chief economist Americas and Asia at Berenberg Capital Markets in New York. “We project the U.S. trade and current account deficits will widen.”

Imports of goods and services increased 1.6 percent to a record $244.6 billion in October. Goods imports were the highest since May 2014 amid a $1.5 billion increase in crude oil imports. Imported oil prices averaged $47.26 per barrel in October, the highest since August 2015.

The country’s import bill was also boosted by food imports, which were the highest on record. There were also increases in imports of cellphones and other goods. Imports from China and Mexico were the highest on record in October.

Exports of goods and services were unchanged at $195.9 billion in October as a surge in shipments of industrial supplies and petroleum was offset by sharp declines in and civilian aircraft exports.

Exports to China hit their highest level since December 2013, while those to Mexico were the highest in three years.

A separate report on Tuesday showed activity in the services sector slowed in November amid a sharp moderation in both new and export orders.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its non-manufacturing index fell to a reading of 57.4 last month from 60.1 in October. A reading above 50 in the ISM index indicates an expansion in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy.

Last month, a gauge of new orders received by services industries dropped to 58.7 from a reading of 62.8 in October. A measure of new export orders fell 3.0 points while imports rose 0.5 point.

(Reporting By Lucia Mutikani; additional reporting by Roberta Rampton; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

China pushing billions into Iranian economy as Western firms stall

China pushing billions into Iranian economy as Western firms stall

By Mark Bendeich and Parisa Hafezi

ROME/ANKARA (Reuters) – China is financing billions of dollars worth of Chinese-led projects in Iran, making deep inroads into the economy while European competitors struggle to find banks willing to fund their ambitions, Iranian government and industry officials said.

Freed from crippling nuclear sanctions two years ago, Iran is drawing unprecedented Chinese funding for everything from railways to hospitals, they said. State-owned investment arm CITIC Group recently established a $10 billion credit line and China Development Bank is considering $15 billion more.

“They (Western firms) had better come quickly to Iran otherwise China will take over,” said Ferial Mostofi, head of the Iran Chamber of Commerce’s investment commission, speaking on the sidelines of an Iran-Italy investment meeting in Rome.

The Chinese funding, by far the largest statement of investment intent of any country in Iran, is in stark contrast with the drought facing Western investors since U.S. President Donald Trump disavowed the 2015 pact agreed by major powers, raising the threat sanctions could be reimposed.

Iranian officials say the deals are part of Beijing’s $124 billion Belt and Road initiative, which aims to build new infrastructure – from highways and railways to ports and power plants – between China and Europe to pave the way for an expansion of trade.

A source in China familiar with the CITIC credit line, which was agreed in September, called it “an agreement of strategic intent”. The source declined to give details on projects to be financed, but Iranian media reports have said they would include water management, energy, environment and transport projects.

An Iranian central bank source said loans under the credit line would be primarily extended in euros and yuan.

The China Development Bank signed a memorandum of understanding for $15 billion, Iranian state news agency IRNA said on Sept. 15.

The bank itself declined to comment, in line with many foreign investors and banks, including from China, who were reluctant to discuss their activities in Iran for this story. The web sites of banks and companies often carry little or no information on their Iran operations.

POWERHOUSE

With a population of 80 million and a large, sophisticated middle class, Iran has the potential to be a regional economic powerhouse. But with the risk of sanctions hanging in the air, more and more foreign investors want Tehran to issue sovereign guarantees to protect them in case the projects are halted.

Economic ties between Iran and Italy, its biggest European trade partner, have been affected.

Italy’s state-owned rail company, Ferrovie dello Stato, is a consultant in the building of a 415-km (260-mile) high-speed north-south rail line between Tehran to Isfahan via Qom by state-owned China Railway Engineering Corp.

The Italian firm is separately contracted to build a line from Qom west to Arak, but it needs 1.2 billion euros in financing. Though backed by the state’s export insurance agency, it says it needs a sovereign guarantee.

“We are finalizing the negotiations and we are optimistic about moving forward,” said Riccardo Monti, chairman of Italferr, the state firm’s engineering unit, adding that the financing should be finalised by March next year.

Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s promise in Tehran last year to oil the wheels of trade with a 4 billion euro credit line from Italy’s state investment vehicle is effectively dead, a source in Italy familiar with the matter said.

Cassa Depositi e Prestiti (CDP) risked losing the confidence of its many U.S. bond-holders who could sell down their holdings if the credit line went ahead, the source said.

A few European banks have deepened trade ties with Iran this year — Austria’s Oberbank <OBER.VI> inked a financing deal with Iran in September.

South Korea has also proved a willing investor, with Seoul’s Eximbank signing an 8 billion euros credit line for projects in Iran in August, according to Chinese state news agency Xinhua.

But China is the standout.

Valerio de Molli, head of Italian think tank European House Ambrosetti, reckons China now accounts for more than double the EU’s share of Iran’s total trade.

“The time to act is now, otherwise opportunities nurtured so far will be lost,” de Molli said.

A MOVING TRAIN

Iranian officials attending this week’s meeting in Rome sought to goad European firms and their bankers into action by talking up the Chinese financing and investments.

“The train is going forward,” said Fereidun Haghbin, director general of economic affairs at Iran’s foreign ministry. “The world is a lot greater than the United States.”

Some Iranian officials remain concerned that investment could become lop-sided and are looking at creative ways to maintain investment links with the West, however.

The Iran chamber is encouraging Western firms to consider transferring technology as a way of earning equity in Iranian projects rather than focusing on capital.

It was also seeking approval to set up a 2.5-billion-euro offshore fund, perhaps in Luxembourg, as an indirect way for foreigners to invest in Iran, especially small and medium-sized Iranian enterprises, Mostofi said.

The fund would issue the financial guarantees that foreigners want in return for a fee, effectively stepping in where banks now fear to tread. Most of the fund’s capital would come from Iran, Mostofi said.

For now, however, big Western firms remain stuck.

Italian power engineering firm Ansaldo Energia, controlled by state investor CDP and part-owned by Shanghai Electric Group <601727.SS>, has been in Iran for 70 years.

Its chairman, Giuseppe Zampini, told Reuters at the Rome conference there were many opportunities for new contracts but his hands were tied for now, partly because Ansaldo bonds were also in the hands of U.S. investors.

“My heart says that we are losing something,” Zampini said.

(Additional reporting by Shu Zhang in BEIJING, Stefano Bernabei in ROME, Parisa Hafezi in ANKARA and Jonathan Saul in LONDON; Editing by Sonya Hepinstall)

Lucky 13? Stocks score longest run of monthly gains on record

Lucky 13? Stocks score longest run of monthly gains on record

By Marc Jones

LONDON (Reuters) – A dive in high-flying U.S. tech stocks on worries their boom may have peaked left investors wondering on Thursday whether the longest global equity bull run in living memory might be starting to splutter.

The caution was sparked by another Wall Street wobble involving a rotation from tech to financials which came just as the near 9-year global rally prepared to notch up another impressive milestone.

The world’s broadest equity gauge – the MSCI all-country index – was on course to finish November with its 13th straight monthly gain on Thursday – the longest winning streak in the index’s 30-year history. Lucky for some.

Though the celebrations were muffled by the tech problems – Samsung and China stocks had also taken another tumble in Asian trading [.SS] – the mood improved again in Europe.

Germany’s Dax <.GDAX> and France’s CAC 40 <.FCHI> both inched up for a third day, and though London’s FTSE <.FTSE> lagged as hopes of a breakthrough in Brexit negotiations pushed the pound higher again, Wall Street futures <ESc1> pointed to U.S. rebound later. [.N] [GBP/]

The latest Reuters global asset poll showed the majority of investors expect shares to keep rising. Robeco strategist Peter van der Welle was one of those, despite noting the market was “playing in extra time”.

“In the absence of a near-term recession trigger, current stretched equity valuations do yet not instil enough fear to change overall market direction,” he said.

Possibly feeding the tech concerns was a Morgan Stanley report earlier this week that the “super-cycle” in memory chip demand looks likely to peak soon.

Shares of Amazon.com <AMZN.O>, Apple <AAPL.O>, Google parent Alphabet <GOOGL.O> Facebook <FB.O> and Netflix <NFLX.O> slid between 2 percent and 5.5 percent on Wednesday. [.N] Asia’s bellwether Samsung <005930.KS> then slumped 4.3 percent to two-month lows.

Tech nerves were not just confined to stocks. Rocketing cryptocurrency Bitcoin <BTC=BTSP> dropped a cool $1,000 to a low of $9,250 before spending European hours pinballing between $9,700 and $10,100.

For perspective, though, the Nasdaq index is still up 26.8 percent so far this year, roughly 7 percentage points more than the MSCI world <.MIWD00000PUS>. For Bitcoin it is a mind-boggling 950 percent. http://tmsnrt.rs/2zJqD6m

“It is true that if you look at the world’s semiconductor sales on chart, their year-on-year growth appears to be peaking out,” said Hiroshi Watanabe, an economist at Sony Financial Holdings. “But if you look at what’s driving demand, it’s not just smart phones and actually a lot of things.”

DOLLAR IN THE DOLDRUMS

In the more mainstream FX markets, the U.S. dollar climbed to 112.25 yen <JPY=>, held its ground versus the euro <EUR> but fell to a two-month low of $1.3480 to the resurgent pound <GBP=>. Measured against major peers the dollar is headed for biggest monthly drop since July. [FRX]

The U.S. Senate took a step on Wednesday toward passage of tax legislation that is a top White House priority, setting up a likely decisive but finely-balanced vote later this week.

Investors also seem to have grown cautious about the outlook of the world’s biggest economy and there are growing signs that it certainly won’t be the only country raising interest rates.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management global head of rates David Tan predicted on Thursday that there will be some 1,000 rate hikes globally over the next decade.

“The current period of economic expansion has therefore been extraordinarily long, almost 10 years and counting, but we know that the days of super low global central bank rates are in the process of coming to an end,” he said.

Borrowing costs in Germany, the euro zone’s benchmark bond issuer, rose to their highest in just over two weeks. The 10-year U.S. Treasuries yield climbed too, reaching 2.3859 percent <US10YT=RR> to near this month’s high of 2.414 percent.

There was no market response after U.S. President Donald Trump nominated Carnegie Mellon University professor Marvin Goodfriend, viewed as a policy hawk, to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

Oil meanwhile moved higher again as OPEC meet in Vienna to debate an extension of the group’s supply-cut agreement.

While the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and key non-member Russia look set to prolong oil supply cuts until the end of 2018, they have signaled that they may review the deal when they meet again in June if the market overheats.

U.S. crude futures <CLc1> traded at $57.72 per barrel in European trade, up 1.4 percent, while Brent futures <LCOc1> rose 0.7 percent to just over $64 a barrel. [O/R]

(Reporting by Marc Jones; editing by Mark Heinrich)

Redacted Brexit reports spark new row in UK parliament

Redacted Brexit reports spark new row in UK parliament

By Elizabeth Piper

LONDON (Reuters) – Prime Minister Theresa May’s attempts to keep her Brexit plans secret provoked a new row on Tuesday when lawmakers criticized her for failing to hand over complete studies on the economic impact of Britain’s leaving the European Union.

The government had promised to share more than 50 studies on how Brexit would impact different economic sectors, but late on Monday, it gave them some of the reports with parts redacted because of what it called their sensitivity.

The lawmakers hit back, saying the government was riding roughshod over a democratically elected parliament.

“In my experience … the best decisions in life are the ones which are held up to the light and tested,” Keir Starmer, Brexit policy chief for the opposition Labour Party, told Sky News.

Arguments that the economy would suffer if it left the EU were rejected by many Britons at last year’s referendum when the country voted to leave.

But with the economy struggling with lower growth since the vote, some of those who argue that Britain should reverse its decision or at least strive for a softer Brexit that maintains close ties say knowledge of the impact could change minds.

The government has been reluctant to share its impact assessments, with May saying she has to play her cards close to her chest to win the best available deal with the EU.

Last month, parliament used an archaic rule to force the government to hand over what Brexit minister David Davis had earlier referred to as “our 57 studies (that) cover 85 percent of the economy – everything except sectors that are not affected by international trade”.

Late on Monday, Davis wrote to a parliamentary committee on Brexit that the papers had been redacted because he had not been given guarantees that lawmakers would keep the details secret.

That move, Labour and the Scottish National Party say, could place the government in contempt of parliament, which could lead to suspension or expulsion from the House of Commons.

“The government is under an obligation to pass this material to the Brexit Select Committee and, if it appears to be failing in the obligation, we intend to raise it with the Speaker,” Starmer told the BBC.

“The government could be in contempt of parliament.”

(Editing by Stephen Addison)