U.S. intelligence study warns of growing conflict risk

US Soldier walks in front of tank in Iraq

By Jonathan Landay

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The risk of conflicts between and within nations will increase over the next five years to levels not seen since the Cold War as global growth slows, the post-World War Two order erodes and anti-globalization fuels nationalism, said a U.S. intelligence report released on Monday.

“These trends will converge at an unprecedented pace to make governing and cooperation harder and to change the nature of power – fundamentally altering the global landscape,” said “Global Trends: Paradox of Progress,” the sixth in a series of quadrennial studies by the U.S. National Intelligence Council.

The findings, published less than two weeks before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20, outlined factors shaping a “dark and difficult near future,” including a more assertive Russia and China, regional conflicts, terrorism, rising income inequality, climate change and sluggish economic growth.

Global Trends reports deliberately avoid analyzing U.S. policies or choices, but the latest study underscored the complex difficulties Trump must address in order to fulfill his vows to improve relations with Russia, level the economic playing field with China, return jobs to the United States and defeat terrorism.

The National Intelligence Council comprises the senior U.S. regional and subject-matter intelligence analysts. It oversees the drafting of National Intelligence Estimates, which often synthesize work by all 17 intelligence agencies and are the most comprehensive analytic products of U.S intelligence.

The study, which included interviews with academic experts as well as financial and political leaders worldwide, examined political, social, economic and technological trends that the authors project will shape the world from the present to 2035, and their potential impact.

‘INWARD-LOOKING WEST’

It said the threat of terrorism would grow in coming decades as small groups and individuals harnessed “new technologies, ideas and relationships.”

Uncertainty about the United States, coupled with an “inward-looking West” and the weakening of international human rights and conflict prevention standards, will encourage China and Russia to challenge American influence, the study added.

Those challenges “will stay below the threshold of hot war but bring profound risks of miscalculation,” the study warned. “Overconfidence that material strength can manage escalation will increase the risks of interstate conflict to levels not seen since the Cold War.”

While “hot war” may be avoided, differences in values and interests among states and drives for regional dominance “are leading to a spheres of influence world,” it said,

The latest Global Trends, the subject of a Washington conference, added that the situation also offered opportunities to governments, societies, groups and individuals to make choices that could bring “more hopeful, secure futures.”

“As the paradox of progress implies, the same trends generating near-term risks also can create opportunities for better outcomes over the long term,” the study said.

THE HOME FRONT

The report also said that while globalization and technological advances had “enriched the richest” and raised billions from poverty, they had also “hollowed out” Western middle classes and ignited backlashes against globalization. Those trends have been compounded by the largest migrant flows in seven decades, which are stoking “nativist, anti-elite impulses.”

“Slow growth plus technology-induced disruptions in job markets will threaten poverty reduction and drive tensions within countries in the years to come, fueling the very nationalism that contributes to tension between counties,” it said.

The trends shaping the future include contractions in the working-age populations of wealthy countries and expansions in the same group in poorer nations, especially in Africa and South Asia, increasing economic, employment, urbanization and welfare pressures, the study said.

The world will also continue to experience weak near-term growth as governments, institutions and businesses struggle to overcome fallout from the Great Recession, the study said.

“Major economies will confront shrinking workforces and diminishing productivity gains while recovering from the 2008-09 financial crisis with high debt, weak demand, and doubts about globalization,” said the study.

“China will attempt to shift to a consumer-driven economy from its longstanding export and investment focus. Lower growth will threaten poverty reduction in developing counties.”

Governance will become more difficult as issues, including global climate change, environmental degradation and health threats demand collective action, the study added, while such cooperation becomes harder.

(Reporting by Jonathan Landay; Editing by John Walcott and Peter Cooney)

Russia says has begun reducing forces in Syria

Siblings transport the last of their belongings from Aleppo

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia said on Friday it had begun reducing its military forces in Syria under the terms of a fragile ceasefire deal brokered between opposition groups and the Syrian government.

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the ceasefire in late December and said Russia would pull back some of its forces in Syria, where its military intervention has turned the tide in favour of President Bashar al-Assad.

The head of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, said that had begun on Friday with the Russian naval fleet led by the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier beginning its withdrawal from the east Mediterranean.

“In accordance with the decision of the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, the Russian Defence Ministry is beginning to reduce its armed forces deployment in Syria,” Gerasimov said.

“I want to congratulate the entire crew of the naval aircraft carrier group on the successful completion of their assigned tasks.”

The Kuznetsov led the Russian naval deployment operating off the Syrian coast, a rare sight since the collapse of the Soviet Union, in providing air support to the Syrian army. Large-scale strikes on rebel forces were launched from the fleet in November.

Syrian army chief of staff Lieutenant General Ali Abdullah Ayoub visited the Kuznetsov to mark the end of its mission.

In remarks shown on Russian state television, he stressed the importance of Russian military support given to Damascus in “the war on terrorism and the need to develop military cooperation” with Russia even after “the victory over terrorism”.

However, Russia has previously failed to deliver on promises to pull back its forces from Syria.

Moscow announced a reduction of its military deployment in the country in March last year, but continued supply runs by land and air before sending significant reinforcements in October.

(Reporting by Jack Stubbs in Moscow and Tom Perry in Beirut; Editing by Ralph Boulton)

Kentucky moves toward requiring ultrasound before abortion

ultrasound machine

By Steve Bittenbender

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (Reuters) – Kentucky’s new Republican House majority took the first step on Thursday toward requiring women seeking an abortion to undergo an ultrasound, acting swiftly to capitalize on winning control of the chamber for the first time in almost a century.

The 83-12 vote on the bill came on the third day of the state’s 2017 General Assembly session, the first in which the Republican Party has led the House of Representatives since 1921.

The bill requires a physician or qualified technician to perform the ultrasound and position the screen so the woman may view the images. The medical staff will be required to describe what the images show, including the size of the fetus and any organs or appendages visible.

Sponsors say the bill will better protect the health of women and provide the materials necessary for women to make an informed choice. Abortion rights advocates contend such laws are designed to frighten and shame those seeking an abortion.

Some 25 states have laws regarding ultrasounds and abortions, but only three states require medical staff to display and describe the images, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation, a non-profit group focusing on health issues.

While Kentucky’s bill passed easily, some supporters criticized the new House leadership for pushing the legislation through so quickly that it might open the state to a lawsuit if,

as expected, the bill becomes law.

“I think that had we had a chance to discuss this bill, we might have come up with something that was not going to open this state up to millions of dollars in litigation” costs, said Democratic state Representative Angie Hatton.

The state’s Republican-controlled Senate passed another measure that would outlaw abortions after 20 weeks of pregnancy. After passing the ultrasound bill, the House approved two measures strongly opposed by labor groups. The first was a proposal that would allow workers in union shops to receive union benefits without having to pay dues, The second measure would repeal prevailing wage laws Republicans say add expenses to state and local construction projects.

Leaders in both chambers plan to meet this weekend to pass bills to be sent to Republican Governor Matt Bevin for approval, House Republican Caucus spokeswoman Daisy Olivo said.

(Reporting by Steve Bittenbender; Editing by Dan Whitcomb and Peter Cooney)

Philippines says South China Sea ruling not on agenda at ASEAN summit

Philippine President

MANILA (Reuters) – An arbitration court ruling that rejected China’s claims to the South China sea and strained Chinese relations with the Philippines will not be on the agenda of this year’s Southeast Asian summit, a senior Philippine official said on Thursday.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte reiterated last month he wanted to avoid confrontation with China and saw no need to press Beijing to abide by the July ruling that went in favor of the Philippines.

“The Hague ruling will not be on the agenda in the sense that it’s already part of international law,” Foreign Affairs Undersecretary Enrique Manalo told reporters ahead of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting chaired by the Philippines in April.

“So we really can’t discuss the ruling. It’s there.”

The July 2016 ruling rejected China’s territorial claims over much of the South China Sea. Beijing declared the decision as “null and void”, but called on countries involved in the dispute to start talks again to peacefully resolve the issue.

What the 10-member ASEAN will focus on is the completion of a framework for a code of conduct to ease tension in the disputed waters, Manalo said.

“We hope we will have a pleasant scenario during our chairmanship. We will talk to China in a way we will put forth our interest just as we expect china will put forth theirs,” Manalo said.

Since 2010, China and the ASEAN have been discussing a set of rules aimed at avoiding conflict. China claims most of the energy-rich waters through which about $5 trillion in ship-borne trade passes every year. Neighbors Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam also have claims.

At the ASEAN summit last year, China’s closest ASEAN ally, Cambodia, blocked any mention of the court ruling against Beijing in a joint statement.

Duterte made a stunning U-turn in foreign policy a few months ago when he made overtures toward China and started berating traditional ally the United States.

(Reporting by Karen Lema; Editing by Nick Macfie)

California lawmakers hire Holder for fights with Trump

Harold Pratt

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) – Democratic lawmakers in the California legislature said on Wednesday they retained former U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder to help in any legal battles with President-elect Donald Trump’s administration.

The move is more evidence that lawmakers in the nation’s most populous state, where Democrats hold two-thirds majorities in both houses of the legislature, are girding for possible court battles after Trump takes office on Jan. 20.

Last month, leaders of both houses introduced bills to protect undocumented immigrants from anticipated efforts by a Trump administration to increase deportations.

In addition, Democratic Governor Jerry Brown has made combating climate change a priority for the state.

“Mr. Holder and his team will serve as outside counsel to the Legislature, advising us in our efforts to resist any attempts to roll back the progress California has made,” Kevin de León, the Democratic leader of the state Senate, said in a statement.

A representative from de León’s office could not immediately be reached for comment.

Holder served as attorney general under President Barack Obama from 2009 to 2015. He is a partner in the law firm of Covington & Burling, which represents companies and helps them navigate government regulations.

“I am honored that the Legislature chose Covington to serve as its legal adviser as it considers how to respond to potential changes in federal law that could impact California’s residents and policy priorities,” Holder said in a statement.

California voted decisively for Democrat Hillary Clinton in the Nov. 8 presidential election, choosing the former first lady over Trump by 28 percentage points.

The hiring of Holder was reported earlier by the New York Times.

(Reporting by Alex Dobuzinskis and Dan Levine, editing by Larry King and Dan Grebler)

Iran to work on nuclear-powered boats after U.S. ‘violation’ of deal

Iranian President

By Bozorgmehr Sharafedin

BEIRUT (Reuters) – Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani ordered scientists on Tuesday to start developing systems for nuclear-powered boats, in reaction to what he called the United States’ violation of a global atomic deal.

The announcement marked Iran’s first concrete response to a U.S. Congress decision last month to extend legislation making it easier for Washington to reimpose sanctions on Tehran.

Rouhani described the technology as a “nuclear propeller to be used in marine transportation,” but did not say whether that meant just ships or possibly also submarines. Iran said in 2012 that it was working on its first nuclear-powered sub. http://reut.rs/2gVr80g

His words will stoke tensions with Washington, already heightened by comments from U.S. president elect Donald Trump who has vowed to scrap the deal, under which Iran agreed to curb its nuclear activities in exchange for lifted sanctions.

There was no immediate reaction from the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency, which monitors Iran’s nuclear work.

“The United States has not fully delivered its commitments in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (the nuclear deal),” Rouhani wrote in a letter published by state news agency IRNA.

“With regards to recent (U.S. congress) legislation to extend the Iran Sanctions Act, I order the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran to … plan the design and construction of a nuclear propeller to be used in marine transportation to be used in marine transportation.”

U.S. Congress members have said the extension of the bill does not violate the nuclear deal agreed last year to assuage Western fears that Iran is working to develop a nuclear bomb. The act, Congress added, only gave Washington the power to reimpose sanctions on Iran if it violated the pact.

Washington says it has lifted all the sanctions it needs to under the deal between major powers and Iran.

But Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said last month that the extension was a definite breach and Iran would “definitely react to it”.

Iran always argued its nuclear program was for peaceful purposes.

(Reporting by Bozorgmehr Sharafedin; Additional reporting by Shadia Nasralla in Vienna; editing by John Stonestreet and Andrew Heavens)

Some Republicans see attacking Obamacare through regulation

Obama signs Affordable Care Act AKA Obamacare

By Susan Cornwell

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Congressional Republicans are looking for the quickest ways to tear down Obamacare following Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president, including rapidly confirming a new health secretary who could recast regulations while waiting for lawmakers to pass sweeping repeal legislation.

Trump’s victory on Tuesday means Republicans will control the White House, Senate and House of Representatives. But congressional Democrats are expected to put up a huge fight against Republican efforts to repeal the 2010 law considered President Barack Obama’s signature domestic policy achievement.

The Affordable Care Act, dubbed Obamacare, has provided 25 million previously uninsured Americans with health coverage. Republicans have launched repeated legal and legislative efforts to dismantle the law, which they call a government overreach.

Wyoming Senator John Barrasso, a member of Senate Republican leadership, said one way for the incoming president and Congress to attack Obamacare immediately after Trump takes office on Jan. 20 would be to quickly confirm a new secretary of Health and Human Services, the official who writes the rules and regulations that enforce the law.

“We could confirm someone on Jan. 20 who could come in immediately and could be working right now on rewriting rules and regulations to give more freedom and choice to the states, to insurance companies and to businesses that are trying to provide affordable care to their workers,” Barrasso said in a telephone interview.

Barrasso noted that the Senate needs only a simple majority vote in the 100-seat chamber to confirm Cabinet members, as opposed to 60 votes to overcome procedural hurdles the Democrats could present to repeal legislation.

Passing repeal legislation “is not a ‘Day One’ activity. But a new secretary of HHS going after the regulations can be a ‘Day One’ activity,” Barrasso added.

Trump during the campaign called Obamacare “a disaster” and joined fellow Republicans in vowing to repeal and replace it with proposals like tax-free health savings accounts. His transition website says Trump wants a solution that “returns the historic role in regulating health insurance to the states.”

In repealing Obamacare, congressional Republican may have to resort to a special procedure known as reconciliation to get around Democrats in the Senate, where rules protect the rights of the minority party.

Republicans in Congress used reconciliation to try to undo large chunks of Obamacare in January, but Obama vetoed the legislation. The bill would have wiped out tax subsidies provided to help people afford insurance coverage, as well as tax penalties on people who do not obtain insurance as required by the law, and would have eliminated expansion of the Medicaid insurance health insurance program.

Republican Representative Chris Collins of New York, one of Trump’s earliest supporters on Capitol Hill, said he hopes Congress can pass a similar bill gutting Obamacare within Trump’s first 100 days in office, a promise Trump made during the presidential campaign. But some changes will doubtless be phased in over time, Collins said.

“There’s nothing that we will be able to do or would want to do that would impact anyone’s health insurance plan for 2017,” Collins said in an interview.

“From a replacement standpoint, our position has always been as Republicans to move forward in a step-by-step fashion,” Barrasso said.

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal published on Friday, Trump said he was considering retaining parts of Obamacare including provisions letting parents keep adult children up to age 26 on their insurance policies and barring insurers from denying coverage to people with pre-existing medical conditions.

MORE FLEXIBILITY

While waiting for Congress to act on legislation, the new HHS secretary could be reworking Obamacare regulations, Barrasso said. For example, regulations could give U.S. states more flexibility under a provision that lets states seek waivers from key provisions of the law, such as exemptions from the so-called individual mandate requiring Americans to obtain insurance and the employer mandate to provide it.

Kim Monk, an analyst at Capital Alpha Partners, which provides policy research to financial institutions, said Trump’s HHS might be able to tighten up the rules governing special enrollment periods for Obamacare. Insurers complain that these periods have allowed some people who initially skipped buying insurance to sign up after becoming ill.

HHS might also be able to alter the language on “essential benefits” that the law requires insurance plans to cover, which include trips to the emergency room, maternity and newborn care, and mental health services, Monk said.

“The law requires they have to cover 10 essential health benefit categories, but how that gets defined, a lot of that is interpretative,” Monk said. “And of course, everything the Obama administration interpreted was more, more, more, more expensive coverage, and all these things lead to premium increases.”

Collins, a member of the Trump transition team’s executive committee, said the job of HHS secretary or surgeon general “would be great for Ben Carson,” referring to the neurosurgeon who ran unsuccessfully for the Republican presidential nomination and later endorsed Trump.

(Reporting by Susan Cornwell; Editing by Will Dunham)

Decision on Dakota Access pipeline due in next few days

Tipi at sunset protesting against Dakota Access Pipeline

By Stephanie Keith

MANDAN, N.D. (Reuters) – A decision on whether the Dakota Access Pipeline will be allowed to tunnel under a lake near sacred tribal lands in North Dakota will come in the next few days, possibly by Monday, a U.S. government spokeswoman said on Friday.

The statement by spokeswoman Amy Gaskill of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers came as police again confronted protesters at a construction site on the controversial pipeline, which has drawn steady opposition from Native American and environmental activists since the summer.

At least 39 protesters were arrested on Friday at the construction site, and deputies took pictures of vandalized equipment, which had wires cut and was spray-painted, Morton County Sheriff’s Department spokeswoman Donnell Preskey said.

She said police confronted about 100 protesters at the scene.

Smoke was seen billowing from a large excavation machine near a site off Route 6 in rural North Dakota, and protesters had also climbed into other equipment, according to a Reuters witness. Two workers were seen leaving the scene.

Completion of the $3.7 billion Dakota Access Pipeline, set to run 1,172 miles (1,885 km) from North Dakota to Illinois, was delayed in September so federal authorities could re-examine permits required by the Army Corps of Engineers.

Plans called for the pipeline to pass under a federally owned water source, Lake Oahe, and to skirt the Standing Rock Sioux Reservation by about a half-mile (one km). Most of the construction has been completed, save for this area under the lake.

The Standing Rock tribe and environmental activists said the project would threaten water supplies and sacred Native American sites and ultimately contribute to climate change.

The Obama administration requested a voluntary halt to construction within 20 miles of the lake on each side.

Energy Transfer Partners <ETP.N>, which owns the line, continued to build to the edge of the federal land where the lake is located.

The company earlier this week said it was “mobilizing” drilling equipment to prepare to tunnel under the lake. That has angered protesters, who planned more protests in coming days.

An ETP spokeswoman said, “Construction is actually complete in North Dakota, except for the bore under the lake, so there is nothing for them to stop.”

Pipeline supporters say the project offers the fastest and most direct route for bringing Bakken shale oil from North Dakota to U.S. Gulf Coast refineries and would be safer than transporting the oil by road or rail.

(Reporting by Stephanie Keith in Mandan, North Dakota; additional reporting by Liz Hampton in Houston and Steve Gorman in Los Angeles; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Cynthia Osterman)

Venezuela floods shops with unaffordable goods ahead of Christmas

Venezuela's people looking for affordable groceries

By Fabian Cambero

CARACAS (Reuters) – Topping off a year of economic crisis that left many Venezuelans hungry, the country’s socialist government is flooding shops with products ahead of Christmas, at prices that most cannot afford.

Thousands of containers of festive food and toys are on their way, say authorities, and while supermarket shelves appear fuller, prices are ludicrously high for people earning just tens of dollars a month at the black market exchange rate.

“If you’ve got money, then of course you’re happy,” said Geronimo Perez, selling newspapers in the center of Caracas. “But if not, you’re left empty-handed.”

A 1.8-kilogram (4 lbs) carton of powdered milk costs the equivalent of $20 in Caracas at the black market exchange rate. That’s more than two weeks’ work at Venezuela’s minimum wage.

The country is undergoing major economic and social problems, as a decade and a half of currency controls, price controls and now low oil prices have left the government and businesses without sufficient hard currency to import goods.

This means supermarkets are empty of basics from rice to chicken, let alone Christmas gifts.

“AT LEAST THE CHILDREN”

Queues at supermarkets that stock regulated goods can run into hundreds or thousands, many of whom are left disappointed.

President Nicolas Maduro blames the problems on an “economic war” waged against the country and his government has promised that supply will be “sufficient” in December.

The bolivar currency has weakened some 40 percent against the dollar at the black market rate in the last month alone. One dollar buys nearly 1,900 bolivars on the street, compared to just 10 bolivars at the government’s strongest official rate.

This means that importers bringing products in on the black market are paying even more and passing those costs onto consumers, fueling inflation that the IMF says will surpass 2,000 percent next year.

Anger is mounting and hundreds of thousands of people have taken to the streets in recent weeks hoping for change. Some though, are pleased with the festive respite.

“It’s better that at least we can celebrate a little amid all these problems, at least the children,” said Karina Mora, as she left a supermarket in the center of Caracas with her two small children.

(Writing by Girish Gupta; Editing by James Dalgleish)

Exclusive: Watchdog condemns Syrian government, Islamic State use of banned chemical weapons

car parts to make car bombs

By Anthony Deutsch

AMSTERDAM (Reuters) – The executive body of the global chemical weapons watchdog voted on Friday to condemn the use of banned toxic agents by the Syrian government and by militant group Islamic State, a source who took part in the closed session said.

Roughly two-thirds of the 41 members on the Executive Council of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), endorsed a U.S.-tabled text, the source told Reuters.

The OPCW’s Executive Council, which meets behind closed doors, seldom votes on such matters, generally operating through consensus. But this text was supported by 28 members, including Germany, France, the United States and Britain.

It was opposed by Russia, China, Sudan and Iran. There were nine abstentions. Russia and Iran are Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s main allies against rebels seeking to overthrow him. Western and Gulf Arab states back the rebels.

The U.S.-Russian split over Syria was striking as it was those two countries that in 2013 took the lead in getting the Damascus government to join the OPCW and avert threatened U.S.-led military intervention in Syria’s civil war.

A 13-month international inquiry by the OPCW and United Nations concluded in a series of reports that Syrian government forces, including helicopter squadrons, were responsible for the use of chlorine barrel bombs against civilians.

The OPCW-U.N. mission found that the Syrian government carried out three toxic attacks in March and April of last year, while Islamic State militants had used sulfur mustard gas.

The findings set the stage for a U.N. Security Council showdown between the five veto-wielding powers, likely pitting Russia and China against the United States, Britain and France over how those responsible for the attacks should be held accountable.

Syrian authorities deny having used chemical weapons in the conflict. Islamic State has not commented.

(Reporting by Anthony Deutsch; Editing by Mark Heinrich)