Tag Archives: Great Britian

Brexit: Where will the UK end up: fudge, no-deal exit or halting Brexit?

FILE PHOTO: An EU flag flutters next to the statue of Winston Churchill outside the Houses of Parliament, ahead of a vote on Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal, in London, Britain January 15, 2019. REUTERS/Clodagh Kilcoyne

By Guy Faulconbridge and Andrew MacAskill

LONDON (Reuters) – With just 10 weeks until the United Kingdom is due to leave the European Union, it is unclear how or even whether the divorce will take place.

The crushing defeat of Prime Minister Theresa May’s deal means she must now work with other parties in parliament on a new variant if she is to avoid a no-deal Brexit or the other option, a referendum on membership.

As the clock ticks down to 2300 GMT on March 29, the time and date set in law for Brexit, May has three main options: a compromise deal, a no-deal Brexit or halting Brexit altogether.

FUDGED DEAL

After her defeat, May pledged to speak to senior to parliamentarians to find a compromise, and financial markets are betting that lawmakers will cobble together a last-minute deal.

The opposition Labour Party’s finance policy spokesman, John McDonnell, said Labour would support May if she agreed to stay in a permanent customs union with the EU, a close relationship with its single market and greater protections for workers and consumers.

With May’s Conservatives deeply split, the opposition party holds great influence over the eventual outcome of Brexit. It is difficult to see how any Brexit plan can pass the House of Commons without the support of some of Labour’s 256 lawmakers.

But if May moves closer to Labour’s position, she risks losing the support of dozens of pro-Brexit Conservative lawmakers as well as the small Northern Irish party which props up her minority government.

If May is unable to forge a compromise deal, she will have to chose between calling a national election, delaying Brexit or going for a no-deal exit.

Many Conservative lawmakers would oppose fighting a national election at such a crucial juncture, especially after she lost the party its majority in a snap poll in 2017. May herself said on Wednesday an election would be “the worst thing we could do”.

EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier indicated that one way forward would be for Britain to accept closer alignment with EU regulations. EU officials say London could, for example, abandon its plan to leave the EU customs union and single market, but that is unlikely to win backing among many Conservatives.

NO-DEAL BREXIT

Despite strong opposition among a majority of British lawmakers and many businesses to leaving the EU without a deal, this remains the default option unless parliament can agree on a Brexit plan.

“It is not enough to just not like May’s deal – to not have a no-deal there has to be something to replace it with, otherwise we leave without a deal,” said one senior British lawmaker.

No-deal means there would be no transition so the exit would be abrupt, the nightmare scenario for international businesses and the dream of hard Brexiteers who want a decisive split.

Britain is a member of the World Trade Organization so tariffs and other terms governing its trade with the EU would be set under WTO rules.

Business leaders are triggering contingency plans to cope with additional checks on the post-Brexit UK-EU border they fear will clog ports, silt up the arteries of trade and dislocate supply chains in Europe and beyond.

Brexit supporters say there would be short-term disruption but in the long-term the UK would thrive if cut free from what they cast as a doomed experiment in German-dominated unity that is falling behind China and the United States.

NO BREXIT

Since the 2016 referendum, opponents of Brexit have sought another vote they hope would overturn the result, but May has repeatedly ruled this out, saying it would undermine faith in democracy among the 17.4 million who voted in 2016 to leave.

A new referendum can only be called if it is approved by parliament and there is currently no majority in favor of one.

The opposition Labour Party wants to push for an election and only if that is rejected will it consider another referendum. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is a veteran euroskeptic who has also spoken out in the past against a second referendum.

However, a prominent pro-EU Conservative lawmaker, Dominic Grieve, on Wednesday submitted legislation making provisions for a second Brexit referendum.

If parliament agreed to a second referendum, Britain would have to ask for an extension to its timetable for leaving the EU to allow enough time for a campaign, probably by withdrawing its Article 50 formal departure notification.

The Electoral Commission would have to agree what question, or questions, would be asked of the public.

At the highest levels of government, there are worries that a second referendum would exacerbate the deep divisions exposed by the 2016 referendum, alienate millions of pro-Brexit voters and stoke support for the far-right. If Britons voted to remain, Brexit supporters might then demand a third and decisive vote.

“I became prime minister immediately after that (2016) referendum,” May said minutes after her Brexit deal was rejected on Tuesday. ”I believe it is my duty to deliver on their instruction and I intend to do so.”

(Writing by Guy Faulconbridge; Editing by Gareth Jones)

U.S. withdrawal leaves vacuum at U.N. rights forum

The name place sign of the United States is pictured one day after the U.S. announced their withdraw during a session of the Human Rights Council at the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland June 20, 2018. Picture taken with a fisheye lens. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse

By Stephanie Nebehay

GENEVA (Reuters) – China, Britain and the European Union lamented on Wednesday Washington’s decision to withdraw from the U.N. Human Rights Council as Western countries began looking for a substitute for the coveted seat.

The United States withdrew on Tuesday from what it called the “hypocritical and self-serving” forum over what it called chronic bias against its close ally Israel and a lack of reform after a year of negotiations.

Washington’s retreat is the latest U.S. rejection of multilateral engagement after it pulled out of the Paris climate agreement and the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

“It is bad news, it is bad news for this Council, it is bad news I think for the United Nations. It is bad news, I think for the United States, it is bad news for everybody who cares about human rights,” Slovenian President Borut Pahor told the 47-member forum in Geneva where the U.S. seat was empty.

The European Union, Australia and Britain echoed his comments.

“We have lost a member who has been at the forefront of liberty for generations. While we agree with the U.S. on the need for reform, our support for this Human Rights Council remains steadfast, and we will continue to advance the cause of reform from within its ranks,” Britain’s ambassador Julian Braithwaite said.

Bulgaria’s Ambassador Deyana Kostadinova, speaking on behalf of the EU, said that the United States had been a “strong partner” for many years at the talks. Its decision “risks undermining the role of the U.S. as a strong advocate and supporter of democracy on the world stage,” she added.

China’s foreign ministry expressed regret, with state media saying the image of the United States as a defender of rights was “on the verge of collapse”.

Diplomats have said the U.S. withdrawal could bolster Cuba, Russia, Egypt and Pakistan, which resist what they see as U.N. interference in sovereign issues.

Once the Trump administration formally notifies it of its decision, the U.N. General Assembly will organize elections for a replacement to assume the U.S. term through 2019.

The Western group of countries in the council is expected to discuss the issue at their weekly meeting on Thursday, diplomats said.

When the council was created in 2006, U.S. President George W. Bush’s administration shunned the body.

New Zealand, which stepped aside to allow the United States to win election to the Council in 2009 under President Barack Obama, may be a good choice as a replacement, two diplomats said. “There would be a certain symmetry,” one told Reuters.

Canada and the Netherlands were other possibilities, although no country has stepped forward yet, they said.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed the U.S. decision.

Senior member of the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), Hanan Ashrawi, said Washington’s justification for withdrawal was “both deceptive and blatantly untrue”.

In a statement, she accused the United States of “subverting international law…for the sake of maintaining the impunity of Israel, the only remaining military occupation in the world”.

(additional reporting by Christian Shepherd and Ben Blanchard in Beijing and Dan Williams in Jerusalem; Editing by Alison Williams and Raissa Kasolowsky)