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U.S. jobless claims drop to near 43-year low

WASHINGTON, Feb 9 (Reuters) – The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week to near a 43-year low, amid a further tightening of the labor market that could eventually spur faster wage growth.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 234,000 for the week ended Feb. 4, the Labor Department said on Thursday. That left claims just shy of the 43-year low of 233,000 touched in early November.

Claims have now remained below 300,000, a threshold associated with a strong labor market, for 101 straight weeks.

That is the longest stretch since 1970, when the labor market was much smaller.

The labor market is at or close to full employment, with the unemployment rate at 4.8 percent. It hit a nine-year low of 4.6 percent in November.

Further tightening in labor market conditions could boost wage growth, which has remained stubbornly sluggish despite anecdotal evidence of more companies struggling to find qualified workers.

Lackluster wage growth, if sustained, could hurt consumer spending and crimp economic growth. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast first-time applications for jobless benefits rising to 250,000 in the latest week.

A Labor Department analyst said there were no special factors influencing last week’s data and no states had been estimated.

The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 3,750 to 244,250 last week, the lowest level since November 1973.

The claims report also showed the number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid increased 15,000 to 2.08 million in the week ended Jan. 28. The four-week average of the so-called continuing claims fell 3,750 to 2.08 million.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao)

((Lucia.Mutikani@thomsonreuters.com; 1 202 898 8315; Reuters

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Job growth slows, but wages rebound strongly

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. employment increased less than expected in December but a rebound in wages pointed to sustained labor market momentum that sets up the economy for stronger growth and further interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve this year.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 156,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said on Friday. The gains, however, are more than sufficient to absorb new entrants into the labor market.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen has said the economy needs to create just under 100,000 jobs a month to keep up with growth in the work-age population. Employers hired 19,000 more workers than previously reported in October and November.

“Job creation and overall labor market conditions remain solid. With the potential for stronger fiscal stimulus in the form of infrastructure spending and tax cuts, job creation appears likely to remain on a solid footing in 2017,” said Jim Baird, chief investment officer for Plante Moran Financial Advisors in Kalamazoo, Michigan.

The economy created 2.16 million jobs in 2016. Average hourly earnings increased 10 cents or 0.4 percent in December after slipping 0.1 percent in November. That pushed the year-on-year increase in earnings to 2.9 percent, the largest gain since June 2009, from 2.5 percent in November.

While the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.7 percent from a nine-year low of 4.6 percent in November that was because more people entered the labor force, a sign of confidence in the labor market.

The employment report added to data ranging from housing to manufacturing and auto sales in suggesting that President-elect Donald Trump is inheriting a strong economy from the Obama administration. The labor market momentum is likely to be sustained amid rising business and consumer confidence.

Trump, who takes over from President Barack Obama on Jan. 20, has pledged to increase spending on the country’s aging infrastructure, cut taxes and relax regulations. These measures are expected to boost growth this year.

But the proposed expansionary fiscal policy stance could increase the budget deficit. That, together with faster economic growth and a labor market that is expected to hit full employment this year could raise concerns about the Fed falling behind the curve on interest rate increases.

The U.S. central bank raised its benchmark overnight interest rate last month by 25 basis points to a range of 0.50 percent to 0.75 percent. The Fed forecast three rate hikes this year.

The dollar rose against a basket of currencies on the employment data, while U.S. government bonds were trading lower. U.S. stock index futures rose.

FACTORY JOBS RISE

Economists had forecast payrolls rising by 178,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate ticking up one tenth of a percentage point to 4.7 percent.

A broad measure of unemployment that includes people who want to work but have given up searching and those working part-time because they cannot find full-time employment fell one-tenth to a more than 8-1/2-year low of 9.2 percent.

Employment growth in 2016 averaged 180,000 jobs per month, down from an average gain of 229,000 per month in 2015. The slowdown in job growth is consistent with a labor market that is near full employment.

There has been an increase in employers saying they cannot fill vacant positions because they cannot find qualified workers. The skills shortage has been prominent in the construction industry.

Even as the labor market tightens, there still remains some slack. The labor force participation rate, or the share of working-age Americans who are employed or at least looking for a job, rose one-tenth of percentage point to 62.7 percent in December.

The participation rate remains near multi-decade lows. Some of the decline reflects demographic changes.

December’s job gains were broad, with manufacturing payrolls rising 17,000 after declining for four straight months. Construction payrolls fell 3,000 in December after three consecutive months of increases.

Retail sector employment rose 6,300 after increasing 19,500 in November. Department store giants Macy’s <M.N> and Kohl’s Corp <KSS.N> this week reported a drop in holiday sales. Macy’s said it planned to cut 10,000 jobs beginning this year.

Department stores have suffered from stiff competition from online rivals including Amazon.com <AMZN.O>. Temporary help declined 15,500 last month, the biggest drop since January.

Education and health services employment rose 70,000, the biggest increase since February. Government employment increased 12,000 in December.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

Jobless claims fall to near 43-year low

WASHINGTON, Jan 5 (Reuters) – The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to near a 43 year-low last week, pointing to further tightening in the labor market.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 28,000 to a seasonally adjusted 235,000 for the week ended Dec. 31, the Labor Department said on Thursday. That was close to the 233,000 touched in mid-November, which was the lowest level since November 1973.

Claims for the prior week were revised to show 2,000 fewer applications received than previously reported. But with claims data for six states and one territory estimated because of the New Year’s holiday, last week’s drop likely exaggerates the labor market’s strength.

The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 5,750 to 256,750 last week.

Claims have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with a healthy labor market, for 96 consecutive weeks. That is the longest stretch since 1970, when the labor market was much smaller.

The labor market is considered to be at or near full employment, with the jobless rate at a nine-year low of 4.6 percent. Tightening labor market conditions and gradually firming inflation allowed the Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate last month by 25 basis points to a range of 0.50 percent to 0.75 percent.

While the U.S. central bank forecast three rate hikes for 2017, minutes of the Dec. 13-14 policy meeting released on Wednesday suggested that the pace of increases would largely be determined by the labor market and fiscal policy.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast first-time applications for jobless benefits falling to 260,000 in the latest week. Claims briefly pushed higher last month and in November, but economists blamed the gyrations on difficulties adjusting the data around moving holidays.

A Labor Department analyst said there were no special factors influencing last week’s data. That data has no bearing on December’s employment report, which is scheduled for release on Friday, as it falls outside the survey period.

According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 178,000 jobs in December after the same gain in November.

Thursday’s claims report also showed the number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid rose 16,000 to 2.11 million in the week ended Dec. 24. The four-week average of the so-called continuing claims increased 26,250 to 2.07 million.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao)

Yellen says Fed could raise interest rates ‘relatively soon’

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen speaks at "The Elusive 'Great' Recovery: Causes and Implications for Future Business Cycle Dynamics" conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in Boston, Massachusetts, U.S.,

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve could raise U.S. interest rates “relatively soon” if economic data keeps pointing to an improving labor market and rising inflation, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Thursday in a clear hint the U.S. central bank could hike next month.

Yellen said Fed policymakers at their meeting earlier in November judged that the case for a rate hike had strengthened.

“Such an increase could well become appropriate relatively soon,” Yellen said in prepared remarks that were her first public comments since the United States elected Republican Donald Trump to be the country’s next president.

Yellen, who was to deliver the remarks to Congress’s Joint Economic Committee at 10 a.m. ET on Thursday, said the economy appeared on track to grow moderately, which would help bring about full employment and push inflation toward the Fed’s 2 percent target.

Lawmakers on the committee, which includes members of both the House and Senate, will have an opportunity to question Yellen after she speaks.

The Fed chair gave a generally upbeat assessment of an economy that continues to generate jobs at a pace adequate to absorb new employees and keep others engaged in work. Wage growth “has stepped up,” Yellen said. Consumer spending, critical as the major component of U.S. gross domestic product, “continued to post moderate gains,” and help economic growth rebound from a weak first half. She said she expects firming in global growth, for months now considered a primary risk given weakness in Europe and China.

Indeed the major question mark for the Fed may now be the actions of the president-elect. His cabinet and policies are still taking shape. But the proposals outlined in his campaign could change the Fed’s baseline outlook substantially if he follows through on plans to cut taxes, roll out hundreds of billions of dollars in new infrastructure spending, and rip up free trade agreements.

Yellen did not mention the election in her prepared remarks. Other Fed officials in recent days have said a major change in fiscal policy could force them to shift gears if, for example, inflation begins to accelerate. But they also said they need to wait and see what the new administration proposes and what gets approved by the Republican-controlled Congress.

As it stands, Yellen said the current federal funds rate of between 0.25 and 0.5 percent is boosting economic activity, and that the country has “a bit more room to run” before inflation becomes much of a concern.

Right now, she said, “the risk of falling behind the curve in the near future appears limited,” and warrants only a gradual increase in the federal funds rate.

But that could shift, particularly as the new administration takes shape.

“The appropriate path for the federal funds rate will change in response to changes to the outlook,” Yellen said.

(Reporting by Jason Lange and Howard Schneider; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

U.S. jobless claims rise to near three-month high

WASHINGTON, (Reuters) – – The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose to near a three-month high last week, but remained below a level associated with a strong labor market.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 265,000 for the week ended Oct. 29, the highest level since early August, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims for the prior week were unrevised.

It was the 87th consecutive week that claims remained below 300,000, a threshold associated with a healthy labor market.

That is the longest stretch since 1970, when the labor market was much smaller.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast first-time applications for jobless benefits would be unchanged at 258,000 in the latest week.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday left interest rates steady but said its monetary policy-setting committee “judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen.”

The U.S. central bank is widely expected to increase its overnight benchmark interest rate in December, but the decision could depend on the outcome of the Nov. 8 U.S. presidential election.

The tightening of the race between Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and her Republican rival Donald Trump has rattled financial markets. The Fed raised borrowing costs last December for the first time in nearly a decade.

On Wednesday, the central bank offered a fairly upbeat assessment of the labor market, inflation and the broader economy.

A Labor Department analyst said there were no special factors influencing last week’s data and that no states had been estimated. There was a surge last week in the unadjusted claims for Kentucky, California and Missouri.

The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, increased 4,750 to 257,750 last week.

The report has no bearing on October’s employment report, which is scheduled for release on Friday, as it falls outside the survey period. According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased 175,000 last month after rising 151,000 in September.

The unemployment rate is seen slipping one-tenth of a percentage point to 4.9 percent.

Thursday’s claims report also showed the number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid declined 14,000 to 2.03 million in the week ended Oct. 22, the lowest reading since June 2000.

The four-week average of the so-called continuing claims fell 9,000 to 2.04 million. That was the lowest level since July 2000.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao)

Drop in U.S. jobless claims point to labor market strength

Job seekers wait to talk to a recruiter at a health care job fair sponsored by the Colorado Hospital Association in Denver

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, pointing to sustained strength in the labor market despite a sharp slowdown in hiring last month.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 264,000 for the week ended June 4, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims for the prior week were revised to show 1,000 more applications received than previously reported.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast initial claims rising to 270,000 in the latest week. Claims have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with a strong job market, for 66 straight weeks, the longest streak since 1973.

The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 7,500 to 269,500 last week.

A Labor Department analyst said there were no special factors influencing last week’s claims data. Only claims for Maryland were estimated.

The dollar held earlier gains versus a basket of currencies after the data, while prices for U.S. Treasuries dipped. U.S. stock futures pared losses.

The report was the latest indication that the labor market remains strong even though the economy added only 38,000 jobs in May, the smallest gain since September 2010. A report on Wednesday showed job openings hitting a nine-month high in April and layoffs falling to their lowest level since September 2014.

The health of the labor market will likely determine the timing of the next Federal Reserve interest rate increase.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen this week reiterated the U.S. central bank’s desire to raise rates, but gave no hints on when that might happen.

Before May’s dismal jobs report, Yellen had signaled rates would rise “in coming months” if economic data continued to suggest that growth was picking up in the second quarter. The Fed lifted its benchmark overnight interest rate in December for the first time in nearly a decade.

Thursday’s claims report showed the number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid dropped 77,000 to 2.10 million in the week ended May 28, the lowest level since October 2000. The four-week average of the so-called continuing claims fell 17,500 to 2.15 million.

The insured unemployment rate fell one-tenth of a percentage point to a record low of 1.5 percent.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao)

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