Science group warns of shortcomings in U.S. missile defense

Intercept flight test of a land-based Aegis Ballistic Missile in Kauai, Hawaii

By David Alexander

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. missile defense system to counter attacks from rogue states like North Korea has no proven capability to protect the United States and is not on a credible path to achieve that goal, a science advocacy group said on Thursday.

The ground-based midcourse missile defense system, which has deployed 30 interceptors in Alaska and California, has been tested under highly scripted conditions only nine times since being deployed in 2004, and failed to destroy its target two-thirds of the time, the Union of Concerned Scientists said in a report.

“After nearly 15 years of effort to build the GMD homeland missile defense system, it still has no demonstrated real-world capability to defend the United States,” said Laura Grego, a UCS physicist who co-authored the report.

Deficiencies in the program, which has cost $40 billion so far and is being expanded to include 44 interceptors by 2017, are due largely to a Bush administration decision to exempt the system from normal oversight and accountability, to rush it into service by 2004, Grego said in an interview.

“Instead of getting something out to the field that worked well or worked adequately, in fact this has been a disaster. It’s done the opposite,” she said.

The Obama administration’s efforts to improve oversight while keeping the system outside the normal development and procurement process have contributed to the problems, she said.

“The lack of accountability has had and will have real lasting effects, especially for a system … that’s strategically important. It should be held to the highest standards, the highest rigor,” she added.

The Missile Defense Agency said in a statement the rapid deployment requirement in the law that created the system was “a driving factor” in the delivery of a ground-based interceptor with “reliability challenges.”

The agency said the problems had led to changes in the interceptor’s design and a program to improve reliability, including use of more mature technologies. The MDA said it was seeking ways to reduce the risks of deploying equipment still under development.

The UCS report echoed criticisms the homeland missile defense system has faced from other quarters. A Pentagon assessment in 2015 found that flight testing of the system was still “insufficient to demonstrate that an operationally useful defense capability exists.”

A February report by Congress’s Government Accountability Office said the MDA was taking a “high-risk” approach by buying interceptors still under development for operational use.

(Reporting by David Alexander; Editing by David Gregorio)

Images show high level of activity at North Korea nuclear site: monitor

Kim Jong Un

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Recent satellite images show a high level of activity at North Korea’s nuclear test site but it is unclear whether this was for maintenance or preparation for a fifth nuclear test, a U.S.-based North Korea monitoring project said on Monday.

A report on the 38 North website said the commercial satellite imagery from July 7 was not of sufficiently high resolution to determine the exact nature of the activity at the Punggye-ri test site, but it added:

“It is clear that North Korea is ensuring that the facility is in a state of readiness that would allow the conduct of future nuclear tests, should the order come from Pyongyang.”

The report on 38 North, which is run by Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, said the imagery showed stacked supplies or equipment and what could be mine ore carts, suggesting a tunnel was being actively worked on.

It said several groups of people and small vehicles could also be seen on the road south of the test facility.

“It is likely that they are either engaged in spring maintenance or traveling to and from the test facility,” the report said.

Speculation has intensified that North Korea may conduct a fifth nuclear test after the United States blacklisted the country’s leader Kim Jong Un on July 6 for human rights abuses.

North Korea said last week it was planning its toughest response to this move, which it called a “declaration of war.”

North Korea conducted its fourth nuclear test in January and launched a long-range rocket the following month, resulting in tough new U.N. sanctions.

(Reporting by David Brunnstrom; Editing by James Dalgleish)

North Korea says will treat U.S. detainees under ‘wartime law’

A Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptor is launched during a successful intercept test, in this undated handout photo provided by the U.S. Department of Defense, Missile Defense Agency.

By Ju-min Park and Jack Kim

SEOUL (Reuters) – North Korea said on Monday it has told the United States it will sever the only channel of communication between them, at the United Nations in New York, after Washington blacklisted leader Kim Jong Un last week for human rights abuses.

All matters related to the United States, including the handling of American citizens detained by Pyongyang, will be conducted under its “wartime law,” the North’s official KCNA news agency said.

The move is the latest escalation of tension with the isolated country, which earlier on Monday threatened a “physical response” after the United States and South Korea said they would deploy the THAAD missile defense system in South Korea.

“As the United States will not accept our demand for the immediate withdrawal of the sanctions measure, we will be taking corresponding actions in steps,” KCNA said.

“As the first step, we have notified that the New York contact channel that has been the only existing channel of contact will be completely severed,” it said.

“The Republic will handle all matters arising between us and the United States from now on under our wartime laws, and the matters of Americans detained are no exception to this.”

It was not clear how “wartime laws” would affect the handling of the two Americans detained. But North Korea has indicated in the past that wartime laws would mean that detainees will not be released on humanitarian grounds.

The North and the United States remain technically at war because the 1950-53 Korean War, in which Washington sided with the South, ended only with a truce.

The two Americans known to be detained in North Korea include Otto Warmbier, a University of Virginia student sentenced to 15 years of hard labor in March for trying to steal an item with a propaganda slogan, according to North Korean state media. The other, Korean-American Kim Dong Chul, is serving a 10 year sentence for espionage, state media said.

A University of Virginia spokesman said the university remains in touch with Warmbier’s family but did not have additional comment.

The so-called New York channel has been an intermittent point of contact between the North and the United States, which do not have diplomatic ties, to exchange messages and, less frequently, hold discussions.

North Korea said last week it was planning its toughest response to what it deemed a “declaration of war” by the United States after Washington sanctioned Kim.

On Saturday, the North test-fired a ballistic missile from a submarine, but it appeared to have failed after launch.

ESCALATING TENSION

The United States and South Korea said on Friday that the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system will be used to counter North Korea’s growing nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities.

The announcement was the latest move by the allies against the North, which conducted its fourth nuclear test this year and launched a long-range rocket, resulting in tough new U.N. sanctions.

“There will be physical response measures from us as soon as the location and time that the invasionary tool for U.S. world supremacy, THAAD, will be brought into South Korea are confirmed,” the North’s military said early on Monday.

“It is the unwavering will of our army to deal a ruthless retaliatory strike and turn (the South) into a sea of fire and a pile of ashes the moment we have an order to carry it out,” the statement carried by KCNA said.

The North frequently threatens to attack the South and U.S. interests in Asia and the Pacific.

South Korean Defence Ministry spokesman Moon Sang-gyun warned the North not to take “rash and foolish action”. Otherwise, he said, it would face “decisive and strong punishment from our military.”

The move to deploy the THAAD system also drew a swift and sharp protest from China.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Saturday that THAAD exceeded the security needs of the Korean peninsula, and suggested there was a “conspiracy behind this move.”

South Korean President Park Geun-hye said on Monday the THAAD system was not intended to target any third country but was purely aimed at countering the threat from the North, in an apparent message to Beijing.

A South Korean Defence Ministry official said selection of a site for THAAD could come “within weeks,” and the allies were working to have it operational by the end of 2017.

It will be used by U.S. Forces Korea “to protect alliance military forces,” the South and the United States said on Friday. The United States maintains 28,500 troops in South Korea, a legacy of the 1950-53 Korean war.

(Additional reporting by James Pearson; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan and Tony Munroe)

South Korea, U.S. to deploy THAAD missile defense, drawing China rebuke

Missile Defense System in South Korea

By Jack Kim

SEOUL (Reuters) – South Korea and the United States said on Friday they would deploy an advanced missile defense system in South Korea to counter a threat from North Korea, drawing a sharp and swift protest from neighboring China.

The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, anti-missile system will be used only as protection against North Korea’s growing nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities, the South’s Defence Ministry and the U.S. Defence Department said in a joint statement.

“This is an important … decision,” General Vincent Brooks, commander of U.S. forces in South Korea, said in a statement. “North Korea’s continued development of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction require the alliance to take this prudent, protective measure to bolster our … missile defense.”

Beijing said on Friday it lodged complaints with the U.S. and South Korean ambassadors over the THAAD decision.

China said the system would destabilize the security balance in the region without achieving anything to end the North’s nuclear program. China is North Korea’s main ally but opposes its pursuit of nuclear weapons and backed the latest United Nations sanctions against Pyongyang in March.

“China strongly urges the United States and South Korea to stop the deployment process of the THAAD anti-missile system, not take any steps to complicate the regional situation and do nothing to harm China’s strategic security interests,” the foreign ministry said in a statement.

Selection of a site for the system could come “within weeks,” and the allies were working to have it operational by the end of 2017, a South Korean Defence Ministry official said.

The THAAD will be deployed to U.S. Forces Korea “to protect alliance military forces from North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile threats,” the joint statement said. The United States maintains 28,500 troops in South Korea, a legacy of the 1950-53 Korean war.

“When the THAAD system is deployed to the Korean Peninsula, it will be focused solely on North Korean nuclear and missile threats and would not be directed towards any third-party nations,” the statement said.

SEVEN SUMMITS

The decision to deploy THAAD is the latest move to squeeze the increasingly isolated North, which also includes a series of bilateral sanctions by Seoul and Washington as well as layers of U.N. sanctions.

South Korea has been reluctant to discuss THAAD openly, given the opposition of China, its main trading partner and an increasingly close diplomatic ally. South Korean President Park Geun-hye and her Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, have held seven summit meetings since both took office in 2013.

Russia is also opposed to basing a THAAD system in South Korea. Its foreign ministry will take the deployment into account in Moscow’s military planning, Interfax news agency quoted it as saying on Friday.

China worries the THAAD system’s radar will be able to track its own military capabilities.

China “knows full well that the THAAD being deployed to South Korea is not aimed at it at all,” said Yoo Dong-ryol, who heads the Korea Institute of Liberal Democracy in Seoul. “It just doesn’t like more American weapons system being brought in so close to it.”

Japanese Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Koichi Hagiuda said Tokyo “supports the deployment because it bolsters security in the region.”

Japan has said it is considering another layer of ballistic missile defense, such as THAAD, to complement ship-borne missiles aboard Aegis destroyers in the Sea of Japan and its ground-based Patriot missiles.

TRUMP’S ARGUMENT

Built by Lockheed Martin Corp <LMT.N>, THAAD is designed to defend against short and medium-range ballistic missiles by intercepting them high in the Earth’s atmosphere, or outside it. The United States already has a THAAD system in its territory of Guam.

Each system costs an estimated $800 million and is likely to add to the cost of maintaining the U.S. military presence in South Korea, an issue in the U.S. presidential campaign. Republican candidate Donald Trump has argued that U.S. allies South Korea and Japan should pay more towards their own defense.

A joint South Korea-U.S. working group is determining the best location for deploying THAAD. It has been discussing the feasibility of deployment and potential locations for the THAAD unit since February, after a North Korean rocket launch put an object into space orbit.

The launch was condemned by the U.N. Security Council as a test of a long-range missile in disguise, which North Korea is prohibited from doing under several Security Council resolutions.

North Korea rejects the ban, saying it is an infringement on its sovereignty and its right to space exploration.

North Korea in late June launched an intermediate range ballistic missile off its east coast in a test that was believed to show some advancement in the weapon’s engine system.

On Thursday, Pyongyang said it was planning its toughest response to what it called a “declaration of war” by the United States after the U.S. Treasury Department blacklisted leader Kim Jong Un for human rights abuses.

Also on Thursday, a U.S. official said the administration of President Barack Obama was asking other nations to cut the employment of North Korean workers as a way to reduce Pyongyang’s access to foreign currency.

(Additional reporting by David Brunnstrom in Washington and Ben Blanchard in Beijing; Editing by Bill Tarrant and Lisa Von Ahn)

U.S. sanctions North Korean leader for first time over human rights

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un posing with school children

By David Brunnstrom and James Pearson

WASHINGTON/SEOUL (Reuters) – The United States on Wednesday sanctioned North Korean leader Kim Jong Un for the first time, citing “notorious abuses of human rights,” in a move diplomats say will infuriate the nuclear-armed country.

The sanctions, the first to target any North Koreans for rights abuses, affect property and other assets within the U.S. jurisdiction. They include 10 other individuals besides Kim and five government ministries and departments, the U.S. Treasury Department said in a statement.

“Under Kim Jong Un, North Korea continues to inflict intolerable cruelty and hardship on millions of its own people, including extrajudicial killings, forced labor, and torture,” Acting Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Adam J. Szubin said in the statement.

But inside North Korea, adulation for Kim, 32, is mandatory and he is considered infallible. A 2014 report by the United Nations, which referred to Kim by name in connection to human rights, triggered a strong reaction from Pyongyang, including a string of military provocations.

Earlier this year, Congress passed a new law requiring U.S. President Barack Obama to deliver a report within 120 days to Congress on human rights in North Korea. It had designate for sanctions anyone found responsible for human rights violations. Kim Jong Un, the third generation of his family to rule the Stalinist state, topped the list.

The U.S. Treasury Department identified Kim’s date of birth as Jan. 8, 1984, a rare official confirmation of the young leader’s birthday.

Many of the abuses are in North Korea’s prison camps, which hold between 80,000 and 120,000 people including children, the report said.

The five agencies designated were two ministries that run North Korea’s secret police and their correctional services, which operate the prison camps. Also named were the ruling Workers’ Party’s Organization and Guidance Department (OGD), a key bureau used by Kim to wield control of the party and the government.

The sanctions also named lower-level officials, such as Minister of People’s Security Choe Pu Il, as directly responsible for abuses.

FORCED LABOR

Senior U.S administration officials said the new sanctions showed the administration’s greater focus on human rights in North Korea, an area long secondary to Washington’s efforts to halt Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs.

The report was “the most comprehensive” to date on individual North Korean officials’ roles in forced labor and repression.

They said the sanctions would be partly “symbolic” but hoped that naming mid-level officials may make functionaries “think twice” before engaging in abuses. “It lifts the anonymity,” a senior administration official told reporters.

The North Korea mission to the United Nations did not respond to a request for comment.

South Korea, which cut off all political and commercial ties with its own sanctions against the North in February, welcomed the move, saying it will encourage greater international pressure on the North to improve its human rights record.

China’s foreign ministry, asked about the new sanctions, reiterated its policy of opposing unilateral sanctions.

U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, visiting Beijing on Thursday, said he is very concerned about rising tension on the Korean peninsula and called on North Korea to refrain from making any provocations.

MORE SANCTIONS TO COME

Using sanctions against a head of state is not unprecedented. In 2011, the United States sanctioned Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and six other senior Syrian officials for their role in Syria’s violence. Former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi was also sanctioned.

Policymakers often worry that targeting a country’s leader will destroy any lingering chance of rapprochement, former diplomats say.

It is a sign “there probably isn’t much of a hope for a diplomatic resolution,” said Zachary Goldman, a former policy adviser in the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence.

The new sanctions follow a long list of measures that have had little effect in pressuring North Korean leaders to change, experts who study the North’s political system said.

“The sanctions from today will do nothing whatsoever to alter North Korea’s strategic calculus and only underscore their thinking that the U.S. has a ‘hostile policy’ against their country,” said Michael Madden an expert on the North Korean leadership.

“Considering the sanctions name Kim Jong Un, the reaction from Pyongyang will be epic,” he said. “There will be numerous official and state media denunciations, which will target the U.S. and Seoul, and the wording will be vituperative and blistering.”

Peter Harrell, a former State Department sanctions official, said the measures would signal to companies in China, as well as others doing business with North Korea, the U.S. would continue escalating sanctions.

Harrell added it was unlikely any assets would be blocked, however “given the realities of where Kim Jong Un and his cronies likely hide their assets.”

In March, the U.N. Security Council imposed harsh new sanctions on the country in response to its nuclear and missile tests.

That same month, Obama imposed new sanctions on North Korea after it conducted its fourth nuclear test and a rocket launch that Washington and its allies said employed banned ballistic missile technology.

Those steps froze any property of the North Korean government in the U.S. and essentially prohibited exports of goods from the U.S. to North Korea.

“The United States has maintained sanctions and pressure against the North for 65 years since the Korean War, but there’s not been a single case where the intended result was accomplished,” said Yang Moo-jin of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul.

“How much time is left in the Obama administration? There may be the wish to prove the policy of ‘strategic patience’ against the North has not failed, but when it comes to practical results, there won’t be much to show,” Yang said.

(Additional reporting by Patricia Zengerle, Yeganeh Torbati and Joel Schectman in Washington, Michelle Nichols at the United Nations and Ben Blanchard in Beijing; Editing by Yara Bayoumy and Bill Tarrant)

China’s Xi urges caution over U.S. missile deployment

South Korean Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing's Great Hall of the People

BEIJING (Reuters) – Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday urged South Korea to pay attention to China’s concerns about the deployment of the U.S. THAAD missile defense system to the country and “cautiously” address the plan.

The United States and South Korea have begun talks on possible deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system after North Korea tested its fourth nuclear bomb on Jan. 6 and conducted missile tests.

China and Russia have urged the United States to back off, saying THAAD’s deployment could also affect their security.

South Korea should “attach importance to China’s legitimate concern on security and cautiously and appropriately address the United States’ plan” to deploy THAAD in South Korea, Xi told visiting South Korean Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn, the official Xinhua news agency reported.

North Korea’s drive to develop a nuclear weapons capability has angered China, Pyongyang’s sole major diplomatic and economic supporter. But Beijing fears THAAD and its radar have a range that would extend into China.

Xi added that China and South Korea should continue to work for the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, work together to maintain peace and stability and solve problems through dialogue and consultation.

(Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Nick Macfie)

U.N. Security Council condemns North Korea missile launches

part of a North Korean missile washed up on Japanese beach

By Michelle Nichols

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) – The United Nations Security Council on Thursday condemned North Korea’s most recent ballistic missile launches as a grave violation of an international ban and called on the 193 U.N. member states to enforce toughened sanctions on the Asian state.

North Korea, or the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, launched what appeared to be an intermediate-range missile on Wednesday to a high altitude in the direction of Japan before it plunged into the sea about two hours after a similar test failed.

“The members of the Security Council deplore all DPRK ballistic missile activities noting that such activities contribute to the DPRK’s development of nuclear weapons delivery systems and increase tension,” the 15-member body said.

“The members of the Security Council further regretted that the DPRK is diverting resources to the pursuit of ballistic missiles while DPRK citizens have great unmet needs,” it said.

After supervising the missile launches, North Korea leader Kim Jong Un said his country now has the capability to attack U.S. interests in the Pacific, official media reported.

The U.N. Security Council met on Wednesday evening to discuss the missile launches. The statement issued on Thursday is almost identical to a condemnation by the council on June 1 over several previous ballistic missile tests by Pyongyang.

U.S. Ambassador Samantha Power signaled that the United States would seek “to identify individual, entities who may be responsible for this repeated series of tests” and could be sanctioned by the Security Council.

North Korea has been under U.N. sanctions since 2006. In March, the Security Council imposed harsh new sanctions on the country in response to North Korea’s fourth nuclear test in January and the launch of a long-range rocket in February.

Power said that since the new sanctions were imposed in March North Korea had carried out 10 ballistic missile tests.

“As DPRK continues to test these delivery systems they make progress and they learn things and thus it is extremely important that we come together and we address any hidden gaps there may be in the enforcement” of the March resolution, Power said on Wednesday.

(Reporting by Michelle Nichols; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

North Korea leader says missile launch shows ability to attack U.S. in Pacific

Kim Jon Un at a test launch

By Jack Kim

SEOUL (Reuters) – North Korea leader Kim Jong Un said after supervising the test launch of an intermediate-range missile that the country now has the capability to attack U.S. interests in the Pacific, official media reported on Thursday.

South Korean and U.S. military officials have said the North launched what appeared to be two intermediate-range missiles dubbed Musudan on Wednesday. The first of the two was considered a failure.

The second reached a high altitude in the direction of Japan before plunging into the sea about 400 km (250 miles) away, they said.

The test-fire was successful without putting the security of neighboring countries at risk, the North’s KCNA news agency said, referring to the missile as a “Hwasong-10.” Hwasong is Korean for Mars.

“We have the sure capability to attack in an overall and practical way the Americans in the Pacific operation theater,” KCNA quoted Kim as saying.

The missile, which is fired from mobile launchers, has a design range of more than 3,000 km (1,860 miles), meaning all of Japan and the U.S. territory of Guam are potentially within reach.

A spokesman for South Korea’s military, Jeon Ha-gyu, said the second launch demonstrated “technical progress in terms of its engine capacity”. However, Jeon said it would not be meaningful to discuss whether it was a success because it was not a normal flight.

Japan and South Korea said the missile flew to a height of 1,000 km (620 miles). Experts said it appeared North Korea had deliberately raised the angle of the launch to avoid hitting any territory of Japan.

South Korea and the United States condemned the launch as an unacceptable violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions.

Japan’s Defence Minister Gen Nakatani said the launch was an indication that North Korea’s threat to Japan was intensifying.

The United Nations Security Council, which in March imposed new sanctions on the North following its fourth nuclear test in January and a long-range rocket launch in February, met at the request of the United States and Japan.

“All expressed a strong concern as well as their opposition (to) these launches,” Alexis Lamek, Deputy U.N. Ambassador of France, which holds the Security Council presidency for June, told reporters. He said he hoped a statement condemning the move could be agreed on soon.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon described North Korea’s latest ballistic missile launches as a “brazen and irresponsible act”.

North Korea had failed in at least five previous attempts to launch the intermediate-range missiles.

The North is believed to have up to 30 Musudan missiles, according to South Korean media, which officials said were first deployed around 2007, although the North had never attempted to test-fire them until this year.

North Korea and the rich, democratic South are technically still at war because their 1950-53 conflict ended in an armistice, not a peace treaty. The North regularly threatens to destroy Japan, South Korea and the United States, South Korea’s main ally.

(Additional reporting by Ju-min Park in Seoul, Michelle Nichols at the United Nations and David Brunnstrom and Idrees Ali in Washington; Editing by Toni Reinhold and Paul Tait)

drcolbert.monthly

U.N. council to meet on North Korea’s missile launches

North Korean leader watching missile test

By Michelle Nichols

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) – The United Nations Security Council will meet on Wednesday to discuss North Korea’s latest ballistic missile launches, at the request of the United States and Japan, diplomats said.

French U.N. Ambassador Francois Delattre, president of the 15-member council for June, said the missile launches were an “unacceptable violation” of a U.N. ban. A senior U.N. official will brief the council, diplomats said.

“We want a quick and firm reaction of the Security Council on this,” said Delattre. “We hope that … we’ll have a press statement on this.”

North Korea launched what appeared to be an intermediate-range missile on Wednesday to a high altitude in the direction of Japan before it plunged into the sea, military officials said, a technological advance for the isolated state.

The launch came about two hours after a similar test failed, South Korea’s military said, and covered 400 km (250 miles), more than halfway towards the southwest coast of Japan’s main island of Honshu.

The tests are the latest in a string of demonstrations of military might that began in January with North Korea’s fourth nuclear test and included the launch of a long-range rocket in February.

North Korea has been under U.N. sanctions since 2006. In March, the Security Council imposed harsh new sanctions on the country.

(Writing by Louis Charbonneau; Editing by Bernadette Baum)

Steely will seen behind Kim’s push for North Korea weapons that work

North Korean leader watching missile test

By Jack Kim

SEOUL (Reuters) – Images in March of a smiling Kim Jong Un inspecting a silver sphere, purported to be a miniaturized nuclear warhead but likened in the media to a disco ball, burnished the North Korean leader’s international image as deluded and reckless.

But on Wednesday, the man Hollywood and others love to mock proved skeptics wrong with what looks like the successful launch of a ballistic missile that reached an altitude of 1,000 km and got over half way to Japan’s main island of Honshu.

Experts said the launch, which came after five failed tests including one earlier on Wednesday, marked progress in North Korea’s weapons program, and underlined Kim’s steely determination as well as his patience with scientists involved.

The quick succession of flight tests of the Musudan missile, which began in April, also resembles methods used in the early stages of missile development by super powers decades ago, when sophisticated simulation equipment was not available to substitute actual tests.

“This rate of attempts is not too different from what the U.S. was doing in the Cold War,” Jonathan McDowell of the Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics said. “It’s of course very different from what the USA is doing these days.

“It may reflect the fact that North Korea has less capabilities in computer analysis, so it’s easier for them to just launch another missile than to run a computer simulation.”

Reclusive North Korea’s state propaganda has painted Kim as a demanding but generous and understanding leader willing to forgive the failures of its scientists.

That contrasts with his reputation overseas as ruthless and impulsive, after he executed his own uncle, replaced his defense chief five times and defied the world with two nuclear tests.

“Humans grow by eating food and science flourishes amidst failures,” North Korea’s state-run newspaper Rodong Sinmun quoted Kim as telling scientists who knelt before him after a failed rocket launch in April 2012.

The dispatch was issued after an eventual successful launch in December that year.

The comments were echoed in a later state publication that described Kim patiently encouraging scientists distraught by failure.

“On receiving the report of the failure, Kim Jong Un said that failure was commonplace,” a 2012 book summarizing a year of the young leader’s activities said, referring to a failed long-range rocket launch earlier that year.

“What was important was to find out the cause of the failure as soon as possible and make a successful launch,” it quoted Kim as saying.

PEOPLE “NOT SHOT” FOR FAILURES

Michael Madden, an expert on political leadership in the North who has contributed to the Washington-based 38 North think-tank, said rumors of technicians behind failures being shot or purged were “nonsense”.

“One thing to note is that people don’t get shot behind failures,” said Madden, who edits North Korea Leadership Watch. “They get shot because they lie in their reporting or refuse to accept responsibility.”

Wednesday’s second launch ended a recent run of unsuccessful attempts to test the Musudan missile, which is designed to fly more than 3,000 km (1,800 miles) and could theoretically reach all of Japan and the U.S. territory of Guam.

While failure is potentially embarrassing for Kim, the failed Musudan tests have not been reported in the North’s tightly controlled state media, meaning that most North Koreans are in the dark about the program.

“There’s no great political risk to Kim Jong Un’s status or reputation, because only a tiny percentage of the population even knows about the tests,” Madden said.

Instead, Wednesday’s second missile launch in a day and the failures which preceded it may in fact demonstrate Kim’s determination to make the technology work, said Yang Uk, a senior researcher at the Korea Defense and Security Forum.

“They must have been working extremely hard and to a given time frame in order to make it work,” said Yang, who is also a policy adviser to the South Korean military.

Like the rest of North Korea’s opaque leadership, the state’s nuclear and missile programs are shrouded in secrecy, and deception and misinformation have long been an important part of propaganda aimed at maximizing the benefit for leaders.

It boasted in March of having successfully tested an engine for an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and mastered the re-entry technology for a warhead to fit on such a missile, assertions discredited by South Korea and the United States.

Experts said the more likely course of weapons development for the North was to perfect a shorter-range missile that can mount and deliver a nuclear warhead, which would pose a direct threat to the United States with the capability to hit Guam.

Jeffrey Lewis, of the California-based Middlebury Institute of International Studies, said that with continued testing, the North will eventually develop a reliable Musudan that can threaten the United States.

“Failures are a part of testing. The North Koreans will, sooner or later, fix the problems with the Musudan.”

(Additional reporting by James Pearson and Ju-min Park; Editing by Mike Collett-White)