The Jim Bakker Show

Obamacare whiplash leaves states, insurers with dueling price plans

FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump smiles after signing an Executive Order to make it easier for Americans to buy bare-bone health insurance plans and circumvent Obamacare rules at the White House in Washington, U.S., October 12, 2017. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo

By Caroline Humer

NEW YORK (Reuters) – President Donald Trump’s reversals in the past week on maintaining Obamacare subsidies to insurers are sowing new confusion over what kind of health insurance will be available to consumers, and at what price, when enrollment for 2018 begins in two weeks.

Trump said last week his administration would stop paying billions of dollars in subsidies that help insurers give discounts to low-income households, one of several moves to dismantle the signature healthcare law of his Democratic predecessor, Barack Obama.

Since then, Trump has alternately supported, and dismissed, an effort by Republican and Democratic senators that would reinstate the subsidies for two years, until a broader replacement to the 2010 Affordable Care Act, commonly known as Obamacare, can be negotiated.

“We are worried that consumers on (Obamacare) plans will be confused by all the back and forth and proposed policy changes and that this will cause them to not seek out assistance,” said Bryna Koch, special projects coordinator at the Arizona Center for Rural Health, which helps consumers choose and sign up for individual health plans offered under Obamacare.

Trump, who promised during his election campaign to repeal and replace Obamacare, which he has called a “disaster,” has said the subsidies amount to a bailout for insurance companies.

By law, health insurers must still offer the discounts on deductibles, co-pays and other out-of-pocket costs, even if the government stops reimbursing them. Insurers say they do not profit from the subsidies.

Anticipating Trump’s move, insurers proposed higher prices on monthly premiums in 2018 to recoup the money. In all but a handful of states, they submitted two sets of premium rates – a lower rate to use if the subsidies remained, and a higher rate to use if the funding was cut.

LAST WORD ON SUBSIDIES?

The fate of the subsidies remained in limbo on Thursday. A senior White House aide said that Trump would demand steps toward repealing Obamacare in any healthcare legislation, comments that cast doubt on the prospects for the bipartisan effort to shore up insurance markets.

A California court is expected to consider on Monday a request by Democratic attorneys general to keep the subsidies flowing until a legal challenge to Trump’s decision is resolved.

If the funding is not restored when 2018 enrollment opens on Nov. 1, many consumers will see premium rates that are on average 20 percent higher than they would have been otherwise.

Even before Trump’s decision on the subsidies, the Congressional Budget Office said the Republican president’s policies to roll back Obamacare enrollment efforts would lead to 4 million fewer people signing up for insurance in 2018 than previously forecast. The CBO still expects 11 million people to sign up for next year – an increase from this year’s enrollment of 10 million.

The federal government has already halted a subsidy payment to the insurance industry for October. But leading insurers are not yet sure whether that is the last word.

Anthem Inc Chief Executive Officer Joseph Swedish told Reuters he could not yet predict how ending the subsidies or restating them through “potential congressional action” would affect pricing next year. Anthem has submitted premium rates that account for the subsidies being cut.

Should the subsidies be restored at any time after Nov. 1, insurers may be able to revert to the lower monthly premium rates, or provide rebates for consumers.

“A midyear change in premiums would be highly unusual, but this would be the right thing to do,” said Marc Harrison, CEO of Intermountain Healthcare, a Utah-based health plan and hospital chain. “Intermountain Healthcare would pursue this.”

Washington state’s insurance regulator said it would allow insurers to change rates as soon as practical – even the next month – if lawmakers reinstate the funding, an approach backed by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners. But that could run up against federal government objections.

The Affordable Care Act does not allow for changes to premium rates after they have been finalized, an official for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services said. At the same time, the administration is working to approve higher rates in several states that did not take into account Trump’s cut in subsidies for 2018.

(Additional reporting by Yasmeen Abutaleb in Washington; Editing by Michele Gershberg and Peter Cooney)

Trump says he will work with Congress on more aid for Puerto Rico

By Roberta Rampton

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Donald Trump said on Thursday he will work with the U.S. Congress to approve grants and loans to help rebuild Puerto Rico after it was devastated by Hurricane Maria a month ago.

Already mired in debt after years of recession, the U.S. territory faces storm-related damages that some estimates have pegged as high as $95 billion, and has asked the federal government to make exceptions to rules that typically require states and local governments to shoulder part of the cost of recovery.

Trump did not give any specifics about how much money the government may give or loan to the cash-strapped territory, home to 3.4 million U.S. citizens.

“I have given my blessing to Congress, and Congress is working with you and your representatives on coming up with a plan and a payment plan and how it’s all going to be funded. Because you are talking about some substantial numbers,” Trump said to Puerto Rico Governor Ricardo Rossello at the beginning of an Oval Office meeting.

Trump and some of his top aides suggested last week that there would be limits to how much help Puerto Rico could expect from Washington. But on Thursday, the president’s remarks were broadly supportive.

The hurricane laid waste to the island’s power grid, destroying homes, roads and other vital infrastructure. The bankrupt territory is still struggling to provide basic services like running water. An oversight board charged with resolving Puerto Rico’s debt crisis has said the island’s government would run out of money by the end of the month without help.

Trump emphasized that repayment of federal loans and other storm-related debt owed by Puerto Rico would come before repayment of the island’s existing $72 billion in debt.

“Any money that’s put in by people – whether it’s public or private – they’re going to want to come in first position,” Trump said.

“We’re going to coming before – far before – any existing debt that’s on the island,” he said.

Trump declined to opine on whether the process would be easier if Puerto Rico were a state rather than a territory – a hot-button political issue on the island.

“You’ll get me into trouble with that question,” he told a reporter.

SENATE TO VOTE

While in Washington, Rossello also met with Senate leaders. The Senate is expected to vote in coming days on an aid package that includes $18.7 billion for the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which has been helping Texas, Florida, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands recover from three massive hurricanes.

Some senators would like to see more funds added to that package, Senator John Thune, a member of the Republican leadership, told reporters.

Senator Marco Rubio, a Republican from Florida who has been deeply involved in discussions over the aid, said earlier on Thursday that he wants to tweak the bill so the island could more quickly access funds.

Congress is expected to consider another aid package by the end of December, but that could be too late for the island, which currently has no tax revenue, Rubio said.

“I know from experience the further away we get from these hurricanes, the less of a sense of urgency there is,” Rubio said.

Rossello has asked the federal government for approval to use disaster aid to cover a broad range of costs. He has also asked the White House and Congress for at least $4.6 billion in block grants and other types of funding.

“The reality is that we still need to do a lot more for the people of Puerto Rico and that’s why we’re meeting,” Rossello said.

“This is not over, not over by a long shot.”

(Reporting by Roberta Rampton, Additional reporting by Richard Cowan, Makini Brice and Doina Chiacu; Editing by Dan Grebler and Rosalba O’Brien)

Second federal judge blocks Trump’s curbs on travel to U.S.

Protesters gather outside the White House for "NoMuslimBanEver" rally against what they say is discriminatory policies that unlawfully target American Muslim and immigrant communities, in Washington, U.S., October 18, 2017. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas

By Lawrence Hurley

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A second U.S. federal judge has blocked parts of President Donald Trump’s latest travel ban on people entering the United States from eight countries, dealing another legal blow to the administration’s third bid to impose travel restrictions.

U.S. District Judge Theodore Chuang in Maryland, in a ruling issued overnight, said the policy as applied to six majority-Muslim countries likely violates the U.S. Constitution’s prohibition on religious discrimination. He also ruled the ban ran afoul of immigration law.

Trump’s ban would have taken effect on Wednesday but was blocked on Tuesday by a U.S. federal judge in Hawaii in a separate challenge.

Together, the pair of rulings set up a high-stakes battle over the president’s executive authority that is expected to ultimately wind up before the U.S. Supreme Court.

Trump’s latest order targeted people from Iran, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Chad and North Korea, as well as certain government officials from Venezuela. Neither of the court rulings lifts the restrictions on North Korea and Venezuela.

In the Maryland ruling, Chuang questioned the government’s argument that the restrictions are needed until the affected countries provide more information on travelers to the United States.

He cited various statements made by Trump, including his 2015 call for a “total and complete shutdown on Muslims entering the United States.”

Chuang wrote that the president’s public statements “not only fail to advance, but instead undermine, the position that the primary purpose of the travel ban now derives from the need to address information sharing deficiencies.”

The latest ban, announced last month, was the third version of a policy that targeted Muslim-majority countries but had been restricted by the courts. The Maryland case was brought by the American Civil Liberties Union, which represents several advocacy groups, including the International Refugee Assistance Project.

“Like the two versions before it, President Trump’s latest travel ban is still a Muslim ban at its core. And like the two before it, this one is going down to defeat in the courts,” said ACLU lawyer Omar Jadwat.

On Tuesday, U.S. District Judge Derrick Watson in Honolulu said Hawaii was likely to succeed in proving that the policy violated federal immigration law. The White House called the ruling flawed and said it would appeal.

Unlike the Hawaii ruling, the Maryland decision would lift the restrictions only for people with family connections to the United States.

White House representatives had no immediate comment.

(Reporting by Lawrence Hurley; Editing by Steve Orlofsky)

U.S. carrier patrols off Korean peninsula in warning to Pyongyang

By Tim Kelly

ABOARD USS RONALD REAGAN, Sea of Japan (Reuters) – The USS Ronald Reagan, a 100,000-ton nuclear powered aircraft carrier, patrolled in waters east of the Korean peninsula on Thursday, in a show of sea and air power designed to warn off North Korea from any military action.

The U.S. Navy’s biggest warship in Asia, with a crew of 5,000 sailors, sailed around 100 miles (160.93 km), launching almost 90 F-18 Super Hornet sorties from its deck, in sight of South Korean islands.

It is conducting drills with the South Korean navy involving 40 warships deployed in a line stretching from the Yellow Sea west of the peninsula into the Sea of Japan.

“The dangerous and aggressive behavior by North Korea concerns everybody in the world,” Rear Admiral Marc Dalton, commander of the Reagan’s strike group, said in the carrier’s hangar as war planes taxied on the flight deck above.

“We have made it clear with this exercise, and many others, that we are ready to defend the Republic of Korea.”

The Reagan’s presence in the region, coupled with recent military pressure by Washington on Pyongyang, including B1-B strategic bomber flights over the Korean peninsula, comes ahead of President Donald Trump’s first official visit to Asia, set to start in Japan on Nov. 5, with South Korea to follow.

North Korea has slammed the warship gathering as a “rehearsal for war”. It comes as senior Japanese, South Korean and U.S. diplomats meet in Seoul to discuss a diplomatic way forward backed up by U.N. sanctions.

The U.N. Security Council has unanimously ratcheted up sanctions on North Korea over its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes since 2006. The most stringent include a ban on coal, iron ore and seafood exports that aim at halting a third of North Korea’s $3 billion of annual exports.

On Monday, Kim In Ryong, North Korea’s deputy U.N. envoy, told a U.N. General Assembly committee the Korean peninsula situation had reached a touch-and-go point and a nuclear war could break out at any moment.

A series of weapons tests by Pyongyang, including its sixth and most powerful nuclear test on Sept. 3 and two missile launches over Japan, has stoked tension in East Asia.

A Russian who returned from a visit to Pyongyang has said the regime is preparing to test a missile it believes can reach the U.S. west coast.

On Sunday, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said President Donald Trump had instructed him to continue diplomatic efforts to defuse tension with North Korea.

Washington has not ruled out the eventual possibility of direct talks with the North to resolve the stand-off, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State John J. Sullivan said on Tuesday.

(Reporting by Tim Kelly; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)

EU defends Iran deal despite Trump, appeals to U.S. Congress

By Robin Emmott and Gabriela Baczynska

LUXEMBOURG (Reuters) – The European Union on Monday reaffirmed its support for a 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers despite sharp criticism of the accord by President Donald Trump, and it urged U.S. lawmakers not to reimpose sanctions on Tehran.

Trump defied both U.S. allies and adversaries on Friday by refusing to formally certify that Tehran is complying with the accord, even though international inspectors say it is, and said he might ultimately terminate the agreement.

EU foreign ministers meeting in Luxembourg said a failure to uphold an international agreement backed by the U.N. Security Council could have serious consequences for regional peace, and also undermine efforts to check North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.

“As Europeans together, we are very worried that the decision of the U.S. president could lead us back into military confrontation with Iran,” German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel told reporters.

After a closed-door meeting chaired by EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini on Iran, the ministers issued a joint statement saying the 2015 deal was key to preventing the global spread of nuclear weapons.

“The EU is committed to the continued full and effective implementation of all parts of the JCPOA,” it said, referring to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the formal name of the accord with Iran agreed in July 2015 in Vienna.

Trump meanwhile renewed his criticism of the accord, and raised the possibility he might try to end it completely.

“We’ll see what phase two is. Phase two might be positive, and it might be very negative. It might be a total termination. That’s a very real possibility. Some would say that’s a great possibility,” the U.S. president said in Washington. He repeated his contention that the JCPOA was “a horrible deal for the United States.”

EU foreign ministers said the accord was crucial to opening up Iran’s $400-billion economy and finding a new market for European investors. Unlike the United States, the EU saw relations with Iran flourish in the late 1990s until revelations about Tehran’s nuclear plans in 2002.

“Non-proliferation is a major element of world security and rupturing that would be extremely damaging,” French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told reporters. “We hope that Congress does not put this accord in jeopardy.”

Mogherini said she would travel to Washington early next month to try to muster support for the accord.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) says Iran is complying with its commitments under the accord, which Trump has branded “the worst deal ever negotiated”.

The EU still has sanctions in place against members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a major target of Trump’s criticism.

The EU ministers also discussed on Monday Iran’s ballistic missile program, which they want to see dismantled. Tehran says that program is purely defensive.

NORTH KOREA SPILLOVER

Negotiated after 12 years of talks, the accord with Iran is the most significant diplomatic success for the bloc in several decades.

Many worry that the EU’s reputation as an honest broker in a host of future conflicts may not recover if the U.S. Congress reimposes sanctions on Iran and causes the deal – which had the strong backing of Trump’s predecessor Barack Obama – to unravel.

Most U.N. and Western sanctions were lifted more than 18 months ago under the deal, though Tehran is still subject to a U.N. arms embargo, which is not part of the deal.

EU foreign ministers also approved a new batch of economic sanctions on North Korea after its atomic test last month that included an oil embargo and investment ban.

But some still hold out hope of repeating the Iran nuclear deal with Pyongyang at some future date.

Sweden is one of only seven EU countries with an embassy in Pyongyang and its foreign minister, Margot Wallstrom, reiterated that Stockholm could be counted on to help negotiate if asked.

But Germany’s Gabriel warned that Trump’s decision not to certify the Iran accord could scupper such hopes, a position echoed by Mogherini, although she stressed that no such EU mediation was underway.

“My concern is that, if we want to talk to North Korea now, the possible end for the nuclear deal with Iran would jeopardize the credibility of such treaties,” Gabriel said.

(Additional reporting by Peter Maushagen in Luxembourg, Lily Cusack in Brussels and Roberta Rampton in Washington; Editing by Gareth Jones and Alistair Bell)

U.S. states sue to block Trump Obamacare subsidies cut

U.S. President Donald Trump smiles after signing an Executive Order to make it easier for Americans to buy bare-bone health insurance plans and circumvent Obamacare rules at the White House in Washington, U.S., October 12, 2017. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY

By Yasmeen Abutaleb and Dan Levine

WASHINGTON/SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – Eighteen U.S. states sued President Donald Trump’s administration on Friday to stop him from scrapping a key component of Obamacare, subsidies to insurers that help millions of low-income people pay medical expenses, even as Trump invited Democratic leaders to negotiate a deal.

One day after his administration announced plans to end the payments next week, Trump said he would dismantle Obamacare “step by step.”

His latest action raised concerns about chaos in insurance markets. The subsidies cost $7 billion this year and were estimated at $10 billion for 2018, according to congressional analysts.

“As far as the subsidies are concerned, I don’t want to make the insurance companies rich,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “They’re making a fortune by getting that kind of money.”

Trump’s action took aim at a critical element of the 2010 law, his Democratic predecessor Barack Obama’s signature domestic policy achievement. Frustrated by the failure of his fellow Republicans who control both houses of Congress to repeal and replace Obamacare, Trump has taken several steps to chip away at it.

Democrats accused Trump of sabotaging the law.

Democratic attorneys general from the 18 states as well as Washington, D.C., filed a lawsuit in federal court in California later on Friday. The states include: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Kentucky, Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia and Washington state.

The states will ask the court to force Trump to make the next payment. Legal experts said the states were likely to face an uphill battle in court.

“His effort to gut these subsidies with no warning or even a plan to contain the fallout is breathtakingly reckless,” New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman said. “This is an effort simply to blow up the system.”

The new lawsuit would be separate from a case pending before an appeals court in the District of Columbia in which 16 Democratic state attorneys general are defending the legality of the payments.

If the subsidies vanish, low-income Americans who obtain insurance through Obamacare online marketplaces where insurers can sell policies would face higher insurance premiums and out-of-pocket medical costs. It would particularly hurt lower-middle-class families whose incomes are still too high to qualify for certain government assistance.

About 10 million people are enrolled in Obamacare through its online marketplaces, and most receive subsidies. Trump’s action came just weeks before the period starting on Nov. 1 when individuals have to begin enrolling for 2018 insurance coverage through the law’s marketplaces.

The administration will not make the next payment to insurers, scheduled for Wednesday, U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions said.

Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer expressed optimism about chances for a deal with Republicans to continue the subsidy payments.

“We’re going to have a very good opportunity to get this done in a bipartisan way” during negotiations in December on broad federal spending legislation, “if we can’t get it done sooner,” Schumer told reporters.

Trump offered an invitation for Democratic leaders to come to the White House, while also lashing out at them. “We’ll negotiate some deal that’s good for everybody. But they’re always a bloc vote against everything. They’re like obstructionists,” Trump told reporters.

The Senate failed in both July and September to pass legislation backed by Trump to repeal Obamacare due to opposition by a handful of Republican senators. One of them, Susan Collins, a moderate Republican from Maine who had been contemplating running for governor next year, on Friday said she planned to remain in the Senate and would use her voice in reforming the healthcare system.

SHARES OF INSURERS, HOSPITALS FALL

Hospitals, doctors, health insurers, state insurance commissioners and patient advocates decried Trump’s move, saying consumers will ultimately pay the price. They called on Congress to appropriate the funds needed to keep up the subsidy payments.

Shares of U.S. hospital companies and health insurers closed down on Friday after the subsidies announcement. Centene Corp <CNC.N> closed down 3.3 percent and Molina Healthcare <MOH.N> closed down 3.4 percent. Among hospital shares, Tenet Healthcare <THC.N> finished 5.1 percent lower and Community Health Systems <CYH.N> declined 4.0 percent.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has estimated that erasing the subsidies would increase the federal deficit by $194 billion over the next decade because the government still would be obligated under other parts of Obamacare to help lower-income people pay for insurance premiums.

Trump, who as a candidate last year promised to roll back the law formally called the Affordable Care Act, received applause for his latest action during an appearance on Friday before a group of conservative voters.

“It’s step by step by step, and that was a very big step yesterday,” Trump said. “And one by one, it’s going to come down, and we’re going to have great healthcare in our country.”

Earlier on Twitter he called Obamacare “a broken mess” that is “imploding,” and referred to the “pet insurance companies” of Democrats.

Republicans for seven years had vowed to get rid of Obamacare, but deep intra-party divisions have scuttled their efforts to get legislation through the Senate, where they hold a slim majority.

Since taking office in January, Trump threatened many times to cut the subsidies. Health insurers that planned to stay in the Obamacare market prepared for the move in many states by submitting two sets of premium rates to regulators: with and without the subsidies.

The National Association of Insurance Commissioners said the change would drive up premium costs for consumers by at least 12 to 15 percent in 2018 and cut more than $1 billion in payments to insurers for 2017.

The White House announced the cut-off just hours after Trump signed an order intended to allow insurers to sell lower-cost, bare-bones policies with limited benefits and consumer protections.

Republicans have called Obamacare an unnecessary government intrusion into the American healthcare system. Democrats have said the law needs some fixes but noted that it had brought insurance to 20 million people.

(Additional reporting by Lawrence Hurley, Justin Mitchell, Steve Holland, Makini Brice, Jeff Mason and Susan Heavey in Washington, Megan Davies in New York, Brendan O’Brien in Milwaukee, and Divya Grover in Bengaluru; Writing by Will Dunham; Editing by Lisa Von Ahn and Leslie Adler)

Danger of war, Germany warns after Trump’s move on Iran nuclear deal

BERLIN (Reuters) – If the United States terminates the Iran nuclear deal or reimposes sanctions on Tehran it could result in Iran developing nuclear weapons and raise the danger of war close to Europe, Germany’s foreign minister said on Saturday.

U.S. President Donald Trump refused on Friday to formally certify that Tehran was complying with the 2015 accord even though international inspectors say it is. He warned he might ultimately terminate the agreement.

German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel told Deutschlandfunk radio that Trump had sent a “difficult and dangerous signal” when the U.S. administration was also dealing with the North Korea nuclear crisis.

“My big concern is that what is happening in Iran or with Iran from the U.S. perspective will not remain an Iranian issue but many others in the world will consider whether they themselves should acquire nuclear weapons too given that such agreements are being destroyed,” Gabriel said.

“And then our children and grandchildren will grow up in a very dangerous world,” he said.

He said if the United States terminated the deal or if sanctions were reimposed on Tehran, it would give Iranian hardliners, who are against negotiations with the West, the upper hand.

“Then they might revert to developing nuclear weapons,” Gabriel said, adding Israel would not tolerate that and “then we will be back where we were 10, 12 years ago with the danger of war relatively close to Europe”.

He urged the United States not to endanger the security of its allies and its own people for domestic policy reasons.

Hailed by Trump’s predecessor Barack Obama as key to stopping Iran from building a nuclear bomb, the deal was also signed by China, France, Russia, Britain, Germany and the European Union.

European allies have warned of a split with Washington over the nuclear agreement and say that putting it in limbo undermines U.S. credibility abroad.

Trump has given the U.S. Congress 60 days to decide whether to reinstate economic sanctions on Iran that were lifted in 2016.

(Reporting by Michelle Martin; Editing by Janet Lawrence)

Pentagon identifying new areas to pressure Iran, reviewing plans

By Phil Stewart

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. military said on Friday it was identifying new areas where it could work with allies to put pressure on Iran in support of President Donald Trump’s new strategy, which promises a far more confrontational approach to Tehran.

Trump struck a blow against the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement on Friday in defiance of other world powers, choosing not to certify that Tehran is complying with the deal and warning he might ultimately terminate it.

He also promised to address Iran more broadly, including its support for extremist groups in the Middle East.

Major Adrian Rankine-Galloway, a Defense Department spokesman, told Reuters the Pentagon was assessing the positioning of its forces as well as planning but offered few details.

“We are identifying new areas where we will work with allies to put pressure on the Iranian regime, neutralize its destabilizing influences, and constrain its aggressive power projection, particularly its support for terrorist groups and militants,” he said.

U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said his first goal would to talk with U.S. allies in Europe, the Middle East and elsewhere to gain a shared understanding of Iran’s actions.

“Certainly we intend to dissuade them from shipping arms into places like Yemen and explosives into Bahrain and the other things they do with their surrogates, like Lebanese Hezbollah,” Mattis said.

The U.S. military has long been a strident critic of Iran, accusing it directly and indirectly of trying to undermine the United States and its allies, including in Iraq, Syria and Yemen.

The tensions escalated in recent months in Syria, where American pilots shot down two Iranian-made drones this summer.

Still, a more aggressive approach to Iran could trigger a backlash from Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and forces that it backs. That includes in Iraq, where U.S. troops are fighting Islamic State and trying to keep their distance from Shi’ite militia aligned with Iran.

“U.S. forces in Iraq are quite exposed, and coalition forces are quite exposed to the risk of attack if Iranian elements so choose,” said Jennifer Cafarella, lead intelligence planner at the Institute for the Study of War, a think-tank in Washington.

The U.S. military is analyzing an explosively formed penetrator, or EFP, that killed an American soldier in Iraq this month. The reappearance of the device, which Iran-backed Shi’ite militia routinely used to target American troops in Iraq before their withdrawal in 2011, has startled U.S. officials.

LINK TO IRAN?

CIA Director Mike Pompeo noted the device was detonated in an area controlled by a militia backed by Tehran.

“We do not have evidence of a direct link to Iran, but we are closely examining this tragic incident,” Pompeo said on Wednesday.

Cafarella said the killing of the U.S. soldier may have been a warning from Iran.

“I think it is possible that the Iranians have been attempting to signal their commitment to retaliate against the U.S. strategy,” she said.

Mattis said the United States was watching for any new provocations from Iran.

Asked whether he thought Tehran might retaliate, he said: “It would be ill advised for them to attack us.”

Reuters has previously reported that options to increase pressure on Iran include more aggressive U.S. interceptions of Iranian arms shipments, such as those to Houthi rebels in Yemen, It could also direct U.S. naval forces to react more forcefully when harassed by armed IRGC speed boats.

The Pentagon on Friday detailed a series of major concern about Iran, including its ballistic missile development and cyber attacks against the United States and U.S. allies.

The Pentagon promised to review U.S. security cooperation activities with allies in the region, something that could lead to alterations in U.S. arms sales and military exercises.

It also signaled a willingness to re-examine the positioning of the roughly 70,000 American troops the Pentagon says are stationed in the Middle East.

Still, Mattis said: “Right now we are not changing our posture.”

(Reporting by Phil Stewart; Additional reporting by Idrees Ali traveling with Mattis and Jonathan Landay in Washington; Editing by Jonathan Oatis and James Dalgleish)

Iranians fear economic hardship, but united against Trump

By Parisa Hafezi

ANKARA (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump’s hardened stance towards Iran evoked a mixture of indifference and national pride among Iranians on Saturday but many were concerned about economic hardship should a multinational nuclear deal unravel.

In a major shift in U.S. foreign policy, Trump said on Friday he might ultimately terminate the 2015 agreement that lifted sanctions in return for Tehran rolling back technologies with nuclear bomb-making potential. [nL2N1MO0DH]

“Who the hell is Trump to threaten Iran and Iranians? Of course we don’t want economic hardship, but it does not mean we will be their puppet and do whatever they say,” said housewife Minou Khosravani, 37, a mother of two in the central city of Yazd.

Within minutes of Trump’s speech, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani went live on state television, ruling out any renegotiation of the deal Iran signed with major powers. He also signaled Iran would withdraw from the agreement if it failed to preserve Tehran’s interests.

Tired of economic adversity during years of tough sanctions over Iran’s nuclear programme, many Iranians still fervently back the decision by Iran’s clerical rulers to resist U.S. pressure.

“I am not a regime supporter. But I side with Iran’s rulers against Trump and his illogical pressure on Iran,” said hairdresser Ziba Ghanbari, 42, when contacted by Reuters in the northern city of Rasht.

Iranians around the globe took to social media in anger.

Former official Mostafa Tjzadeh, who spent seven years as a prisoner of conscience in Iran, tweeted: “One nation, One message: No to #Trump. We are in this together.”

“Long on rhetoric, short on substance,” tweeted Niloofar Ghadiri, a journalist in Tehran.

ECONOMIC HARDSHIP

Iranian authorities say 15 percent of the country’s workforce is unemployed. Many formal jobs pay a pittance, meaning the true figure of people without adequate work to support themselves is probably far higher.

Lack of foreign investment, if more sanctions are imposed, will deepen the unemployment crisis. Currency exchange shops are refusing to sell U.S. dollars because of the uncertainty as the rial has lost value in the past days. Iranians fear new sanctions will also see the price of food, including rice, bread and dairy products, rise.

“My worry is that the economy will go back to the sanctions era when we had difficulties to find essential food and even medicine. I want my son to have a good life,” said elementary school teacher Gholamali Part, 43, in Tehran.

To improve Iran’s economy, Rouhani has rolled out the red carpet for global investors since sanctions were suspended. But so far only a few major European investors have returned to Iran’s market, including planemaker Airbus, French energy group Total and Germany’s Siemens.

Others are deterred mainly by a separate raft of sanctions Washington continues to impose in retaliation for what it calls Tehran’s support for terrorism and human rights abuses. Iran denies involvement in terrorism.

The nuclear deal was also signed by China, France, Russia, Britain, Germany and the European Union. Despite assurances by other signatories over their continued commitment, European companies could think twice about involvement in Iran if the deal cannot survive.

Hossein, like millions of Iranians who bore the brunt of the sanctions, has no high hopes. “We are going to be sanctioned again,” said Hossein, who declined to give his full name.

‘RARE UNANIMITY’

Inflation has dropped to single digits since Rouhani was first elected in 2013, but he has failed to tackle high unemployment and the gap between rich and poor is widening.

The hardline daily Kayhan, which campaigned against the deal during 18-months of the nuclear talks, wrote: “Trump keeps the nuclear pact: advantages for America, restrictions for us!”

In a report headlined “Mr Blunder’s isolation”, the moderate Arman daily wrote: “‘A rare unanimity supports Iran in the World’ is the closest definition of the mood after Trump’s speech last night.”

Some Iranians are indifferent. “I don’t care. Will there be holidays if the deal fails? That is important because I can go on a holiday with my friends,” said Arjang Bakhtiari, 19, whose family owns factories in several cities.

Trump’s decision in effect leaves the fate of the deal up to the U.S. Congress, which might try to modify it or bring back U.S. sanctions previously imposed on Iran.

The failure of the deal could be politically tricky for Rouhani, its chief architect, who has been criticized by the country’s utmost power, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, for the country’s slow pace of economic recovery.

Khamenei cautiously backed the deal, but has repeatedly expressed pessimism about the United States remaining committed to it. The economic problems caused by the U.S. pressure could weaken Rouhani’s stance in Iran’s faction-ridden and complex establishment.

(Editing by William Maclean and Janet Lawrence)

Trump expected to make U.S. move against Iran nuclear deal -officials

FILE PHOTO: A general view of the Bushehr nuclear power plant, some 1,200 km (746 miles) south of Tehran October 26, 2010. REUTERS/IRNA/Mohammad Babaie/File Photo

By Steve Holland and Jonathan Landay

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Donald Trump is likely to take a major step against the international nuclear deal with Iran on Friday, laying out a more aggressive approach to Iranian activities in the Middle East that risks upsetting U.S. relations with European allies.

“It is time for the entire world to join us in demanding that Iran’s government end its pursuit of death and destruction,” Trump said in a White House statement that flagged key elements of the strategy.

He is to present his plan in a 12:45 p.m. EDT (1645 GMT)speech at the White House, the product of weeks of internal discussions between him and his national security team.

U.S. officials said Trump was expected to announce that he will not certify the 2015 nuclear accord between Iran and six world powers, one he has called the “worst deal ever” as it was not, in his view, in the U.S. national interest.

Trump found himself under immense pressure as he considered de-certifying the deal, a move that would ignore warnings from inside and outside his administration that to do so would risk undermining U.S. credibility abroad.

He had formally reaffirmed it twice before but aides said he was reluctant to do so a third time.

De-certification would not pull the United States out of the deal but would give the Congress 60 days to decide whether to reimpose sanctions on Tehran that were suspended under the pact, negotiated during the administration of President Barack Obama.

U.S. House of Representatives Homeland Security Committee Chairman Michael McCaul told Reuters he thinks Trump “is likely to not completely pull out of the deal, but decertify compliance.”

IRANIAN WARNING

If Washington quits the deal, that will be the end of it and global chaos could ensue, Iran’s influential parliament speaker, Ali Larijani, was quoted by the Russian news agency TASS as saying during a visit to St Petersburg on Friday.

U.N. nuclear inspectors say Iran is in compliance with the accord, which limited the scope of Iran’s nuclear program to help ensure it could not be put to developing bombs in exchange for a lifting of international sanctions on Tehran.

Trump says Tehran is in violation of the spirit of the agreement and has done nothing to rein in its ballistic missile program or its financial and military support for the Lebanese Shi’ite movement Hezbollah and other militant groups.

White House Chief of Staff John Kelly said on Thursday the U.S. approach toward Iran is to work with allies in the Middle East to contain Tehran’s activities.

“We have footprints on the ground, naval and Air Force is there to just demonstrate our resolve, our friendship, and try to deter anything that any country out there may do,” Kelly told reporters.

European allies warn of a split with the United States over the nuclear agreement, in part because they are benefiting economically from a relaxation of sanctions.

A variety of European allies, including the leaders of Britain and France, have personally appealed to Trump to re-certify the nuclear accord for the sake of allied unity.

Germany’s government pledged on Friday to work for continued unity if Trump de-certified the deal as Berlin remain convinced the agreement was an important tool to prevent Iran developing nuclear weapons.

Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel underscored German views in a telephone call with U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson late on Thursday, his spokeswoman Maria Adebahr told reporters.

Gabriel said on Thursday U.S. behavior was driving a wedge between Europe and its close ally United States and bringing Europeans closer to Russia and China. “It’s imperative that Europe sticks together on this issue,” said Gabriel.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said on Friday that if the United States withdrew from the deal, “this will damage the atmosphere of predictability, security, stability and non-proliferation in the entire world”.

U.S. MOVE AGAINST REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS

McCaul said he expected Trump also to announce some kind of action against the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, the country’s most powerful security force. Trump is under a legal mandate to impose U.S. economic sanctions on the Revolutionary Guards as a whole by Oct. 31 or waive them.

U.S. sanctions could seriously hurt the IRGC as it controls large swaths of Iran’s economy. The Guards’ foreign paramilitary and espionage wing, the Quds Force, is under U.S. sanctions, as is the Quds Force commander, other officials and associated individuals and entities.

The 2015 nuclear agreement, signed by the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, China, the European Union and Iran, has been denounced by Trump as “an embarrassment” and “the worst deal ever.”

European officials have categorically ruled out renegotiating the deal but have said they share Trump’s concerns about Iran’s destabilizing influence in the Middle East.

China has said it hopes the agreement will stay intact.

Israel, Iran’s arch-adversary in the Middle East, welcomed Trump’s anticipated announcement on Friday but voiced doubt that the tougher tack by Washington could turn around the Islamic Republic.

The International Atomic Energy Agency concluded that Iran secretly researched a nuclear warhead until 2009, which Tehran denies. Iran has always insisted its uranium enrichment activity is for civilian energy purposes, not for atomic bombs.

The threat of new U.S. action has prompted a public display of unity from rival factions among Iran’s rulers. Iran will react sharply to any U.S. move against the nuclear deal with global powers, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told the Iranian parliament on Wednesday.

(Reporting by Steve Holland and Jonathan Landay in Washington; additional reporting by Warren Strobel in Washington, Andrea Shalal in Berlin Dmitry Solovyov in Moscow and Dan Williams in Jerusalem; Editing by Yara Bayoumy and Mark Heinrich)

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