Putin curbs anti-Western rhetoric, says wants to get on with Trump

Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech during his annual state of the nation address at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia,

By Katya Golubkova and Denis Pinchuk

MOSCOW (Reuters) – President Vladimir Putin struck an unusually conciliatory tone in his annual state of the nation address on Thursday, saying Moscow wanted to get on with the incoming U.S. administration and was looking to make friends not enemies.

Putin has used previous set-piece speeches to lash out at the West and the United States in particular, but he reined in his criticism this time round and focused most of his speech on domestic social and economic issues.

“We don’t want confrontation with anyone. We don’t need it. We are not seeking and have never sought enemies. We need friends,” Putin told Russia’s political elite gathered in one of the Kremlin’s grandest halls.

“We are ready to cooperate with the new U.S. administration. We have a shared responsibility to ensure international security.”

Any U.S.-Russia co-operation would have to be mutually beneficial and even-handed, he said.

Putin has spoken previously of his hope that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump may help restore tattered U.S.-Russia relations, and analysts said he was unlikely to want to dial up anti-Western rhetoric before Trump’s inauguration in January.

The Russian leader said he was hoping to find common ground with Washington on fighting global terrorism in particular.

That was a reference to Syria where Moscow is backing President Bashar al-Assad, while the outgoing U.S. administration has supported anti-Assad rebels.

Russia hopes Trump will give Russia a freer hand there and cooperate militarily to fight Islamic State.

Putin’s tone may have been softer than usual, but he still made it clear that Russia would continue to robustly stand up for its own interests.

Complaining about what he said were “myths” about Russian aggression and Russian meddling in other countries’ elections, he said Moscow wanted to independently decide its own fate.

“We will build our future without advice from anyone else,” said Putin.

The main target of Putin’s speech appeared to be the Russian people though.

His message was that the worst of a grinding economic crisis was in the past and that it was now time to focus on improving living standards by investing more heavily in education and health.

The next presidential election takes place in 2018, and though he has not said yet if he will seek another term, Putin is widely expected to run.

(Additional reporting by Andrey Kuzmin, Maria Tsvetkova, Andrey Ostroukh, Polina Devitt, Maria Kiselyova, Dasha Korsunskaya; Writing by Andrew Osborn; Editing by Christian Lowe)

Assad, allies aim to seize all Aleppo before Trump takes power

A Syrian government soldier gestures a v-sign under the Syrian national flag near a general view of eastern Aleppo after they took control of al-Sakhour neigbourhood in Aleppo, Syria

By Laila Bassam and Ellen Francis

BEIRUT (Reuters) – The Syrian army and its allies aim to seize all eastern Aleppo from rebels by the time U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January, sticking by a Russian-backed timeline for the operation after big gains in recent days, a senior official in the military alliance fighting in support of Damascus said.

The official who declined to be identified in order to speak freely indicated however that the next phase of the Aleppo campaign could be more difficult as the army and its allies seek to capture more densely populated areas of the city.

The rebels have lost more than a third of the area they held in eastern Aleppo in the last few days of a government assault that has killed hundreds of people and uprooted thousands more. For the rebels, it is one of the gravest moments of the war.

Rebels meanwhile fought fiercely to stop government forces advancing deeper into the opposition-held enclave on Tuesday, confronting pro-Assad militias who sought to move into the area from the southeast, a rebel official said.

The attack on eastern Aleppo threatens to snuff out the most important urban center of the revolt against President Bashar al-Assad, who has been firmly on the offensive for more than a year thanks to Russian and Iranian military support.

Capturing rebel-held eastern Aleppo would be the biggest victory to date for Assad in the conflict that has killed hundreds of thousands of people since it arose out of protests against his rule nearly six years ago.

As Russia and Iran have stuck steadfastly by Assad, the rebels say their foreign backers including the United States have left them to their fate in their besieged enclave of eastern Aleppo, Syria’s biggest city before the civil war.

 

Syrian government soldiers walk near a general view of eastern Aleppo after they took control of al-Sakhour neigbourhood in Aleppo,

Syrian government soldiers walk near a general view of eastern Aleppo after they took control of al-Sakhour neigbourhood in Aleppo, Syria in this handout picture provided by SANA on November 28, 2016. SANA/Handout via REUTERS

Government forces backed by Shi’ite militias from Iran, Lebanon and Iraq punched into the rebel-held area from the northeast last week. The senior, pro-Assad official said the rebel lines had collapsed more quickly than expected.

“The Russians want to complete the operation before Trump takes power,” said the official, repeating a previous timetable which pro-Damascus sources had said was drawn up to mitigate the risks of any shift in U.S. policy towards the war in Syria.

Trump has indicated that he may abandon support for Syrian rebels who have received military aid from states including the United States, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and could even cooperate with Russia against Islamic State in the country.

He will be inaugurated as president on January 20.

The United States has offered aid including military support to some rebel groups under President Barack Obama, though the rebels have always said this backing has fallen well short of what they need against better armed government forces.

THE WEST “CAN’T DO ANYTHING”

The rebel official said the outgoing U.S. administration was paying little attention to Syria. Assad and his allies were “trying to exploit the current circumstances, unfortunately, and the Western states can’t do anything”, he said.

France, another backer of the opposition, called for an immediate U.N. Security Council meeting to discuss Aleppo.

“More than ever before, we need to urgently put in place means to end the hostilities and to allow humanitarian aid to get through unhindered,” French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said in a statement.

Russia has consistently blocked attempts by Western states to take action in the Security Council against Damascus.

A bomb hangs on a parachute while falling over the rebel-held besieged al-Qaterji neighbourhood of Aleppo, Syria.

A bomb hangs on a parachute while falling over the rebel-held besieged al-Qaterji neighbourhood of Aleppo, Syria. REUTERS/Abdalrhman Ismail

Accounts from eastern Aleppo, where the United Nations says at least 250,000 civilians are trapped with no access to the outside world, point to a dire humanitarian situation. People have been forced to scavenge in the garbage for food as aid supplies have run out, and all the hospitals in eastern Aleppo have been repeatedly bombed.

The civil defense rescue service that operates in eastern Aleppo said on Monday it had nearly run out fuel to power the equipment it has been using to pull people from the rubble of bombed-out buildings.

Pummeled by air strikes, artillery and ground attacks, the rebels were forced on Monday to withdraw to more defensible lines along a highway that runs through Aleppo, hoping that it would be harder for the government side to make further gains.

The rebel official with one of the main Aleppo rebel groups said the opposition fighters had managed to stabilize new frontlines, but were fighting to stop pro-government militias that sought to advance from the south.

FIERCE BATTLES

“There is no progress but the bombardment and battles remain fierce, particularly in Aziza” in southeastern Aleppo, said the official with the Jabha Shamiya rebel group, which fights under the Free Syrian Army banner. “Yesterday evening there was a big mobilization by Iranian militias in Aziza,” the official added.

The government and its allies gradually besieged the rebel-held sector of Aleppo this year before abandoning a ceasefire to launch a fierce assault in September.

The latest fighting has forced thousands to flee. Some have crossed the frontline to government-held areas, others have sought refuge in a Kurdish-controlled part of the city, and many more have fled deeper into the remaining rebel-held area.

Air strikes on Bab al-Nairab, a district in the rebel-held area, killed at least 10 people and left dozens more wounded or missing, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and the civil defense rescue service said. The Syrian military could not be reached for comment.

The civil defense said government planes struck as people were trying to flee the neighborhood on foot, killing 25.

The United Nations humanitarian chief and relief coordinator said up to 16,000 people had been displaced in eastern Aleppo.

The U.N. envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, said he could not say how long eastern Aleppo would hold out.

“Clearly, I cannot deny – this is a military acceleration and I can’t tell you how long eastern Aleppo will last,” he told the European Parliament.

Russia said that the army’s breakthrough in Aleppo had dramatically altered the situation on the ground, allowing more than 80,000 civilians to access humanitarian aid after years of what it described as being used by militants as human shields.

“During the last 24 hours, thanks to very well-prepared and careful actions, Syrian soldiers were able to radically change the situation,” Major-General Igor Konashenkov, a defense ministry spokesman, said in a statement.

“Practically half of the territory occupied by rebels in recent years in the eastern part of Aleppo has been completely liberated.”

A medic in eastern Aleppo who gave his name as Abu al-Abbas said however there was “intense fear of collective annihilation”.

“This week I’ve changed locations three times,” he added, speaking on Monday using a social networking site. “In the shelter, we had dead people who we couldn’t take out because the bombardment was so intense,” he said.

(Additional reporting by Tom Perry and Angus McDowall in Beirut, Suleiman al-Khalidi in Amman, Andrew Osborn and Katya Golubkova in Moscow, John Irish in Paris, Stephanie Nebehay and Tom Miles in Geneva; writing by Tom Perry; editing by Peter Graff)

Erdogan, Putin discuss Syria as Turkish-backed rebels push to al-Bab

Rebel fighters gather during their advance towards the Islamic State-held city of al-Bab, northern Syria

By Humeyra Pamuk and Orhan Coskun

ISTANBUL/ANKARA (Reuters) – Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan discussed an attack on Turkish troops in Syria with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Friday as Turkish-backed rebels pressed an offensive to take the Syrian city of al-Bab from Islamic State.

The Turkish military has said Thursday’s air strike, which killed three of its soldiers, was thought to have been carried out by the Syrian air force. It would be the first time Turkish soldiers have died at the hands of Syrian government forces.

Russia is Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s main military backer, while Turkey backs the rebels fighting to oust him.

Erdogan told Putin that Turkey respected Syria’s territorial integrity and that its military incursion, launched in August to repel Islamic State from the border, showed its determination to fight militant groups, sources in the Turkish presidency said.

The Kremlin said the discussion on Syria was constructive and that both sides agreed to continue active dialogue to coordinate efforts against international terrorism.

The Turkish sources said both leaders also agreed to try to resolve the humanitarian crisis in Aleppo, where a government siege of the rebel-held east, aggravated by renewed, frequent air strikes on hospitals in the past week, have left residents desperately short of medicines, food and fuel.

Rebels in east Aleppo have agreed to a U.N. plan for aid delivery and medical evacuations, but the United Nations is awaiting a green light from Russia and the Syrian government, the U.N. said on Thursday.

RISK OF ESCALATION

The killing of the Turkish soldiers on Thursday – the first anniversary of Turkey’s downing of a Russian jet over Syria – raised fears of an escalation in an already complex battlefield.

Ankara and Moscow only restored ties, which had been damaged by the jet incident, in August. They continue to pursue conflicting goals in Syria, although Turkey has of late been less openly critical of Assad than in the past.

The advance by largely Turkmen and Arab rebels backed by Turkey toward al-Bab, the last urban stronghold of Islamic State in the northern Aleppo countryside, potentially pits them against both Kurdish fighters and Syrian government forces.

Another Turkish soldier was killed and five wounded in clashes with Islamic State on Friday, the military said.

The latest casualties bring the number of Turkish soldiers killed in Syria to 17 since Ankara launched an incursion three months ago to try to push Islamic State and Kurdish fighters from Syrian territory along its border.

The Turkish military also said four Syrian rebels had been killed and 25 wounded in clashes in the 24 hours to Friday morning. Turkish fighter jets were continuing to strike Islamic State targets near al-Bab, it said.

Al-Bab is of particular strategic importance to Turkey because Kurdish-dominated militias have also been pursuing a campaign to seize it. Ankara is determined to prevent Kurdish forces from joining up cantons they control along the Turkish border, for fear it will stoke Kurdish separatism at home.

Turkey is backing the Syrian rebels with troops, tanks and artillery, as well as reconnaissance flights along the border. Washington has said the U.S.-led coalition, of which NATO member Turkey is a part, is not providing support for the operation.

(Additional reporting by Tulay Karadeniz in Ankara and Vladimir Soldatkin in Moscow; Writing by Nick Tattersall; editing by Mark Heinrich)

Obama, Putin talk about Syria and Ukraine in quick summit meet

Obama and Putin

LIMA (Reuters) – U.S. President Barack Obama and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin spoke for around four minutes on Sunday at the APEC summit about Syria and Ukraine, in what is likely to be their last in-person meeting before Obama leaves office.

The two men met at the start of the summit meeting in Lima, Peru’s capital. They exchanged pleasantries and remained standing as they spoke.

Obama later said at a news conference he told Putin the U.S. is deeply concerned about bloodshed and chaos in Syria “sown by constant bombing attacks” by the Syrian and Russian militaries, and that a ceasefire and political transition were needed.

“As usual I was candid and courteous but very clear about the strong differences we have on policy,” Obama said.

Putin said at a separate news conference he thanked Obama during Sunday’s meeting in Lima “for the years of joint work”.

“I told him that we would be happy to see him (Obama) in Russia anytime if he wants, can and has desire”, Putin said.

Obama and Putin have had a challenging relationship. The U.S. president said last week he had warned Putin about consequences for cyber attacks attributed to Moscow that were seen as trying to influence the U.S. election.

Obama said he also urged President Putin to help implement the Minsk peace agreement by working with France, Germany, Ukraine and the United States to halt the conflict in Donbass region of Ukraine.

During his race for the White House, Republican President-elect Donald Trump praised Putin. Putin said on Sunday that Trump had confirmed to him that he was willing to mend ties.

(Reporting by Jeff Mason, additional reporting by Denis Pinchuk, Caroline Stauffer and Mitra Taj; Editing by Alan Crosby and Simon Cameron-Moore)

Russia’s Putin congratulates Trump on election win

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during a news conference following the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) Summit in the western state of Goa, India,

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated businessman Donald Trump on his victory in the U.S. presidential election in a telegram on Wednesday, the Kremlin said.

“Putin expressed hope for joint work to restore Russian-American relations from their state of crisis, and also to address pressing international issues and search for effective responses to challenges concerning global security,” the Kremlin said in a statement.

Putin also said he was sure a constructive dialogue between Moscow and Washington would serve the interests of both countries, the Kremlin said.

(Reporting by Polina Devitt; Writing by Jack Stubbs; Editing by Alexander Winning)

Putin unveils monument to Russia’s ‘spiritual founder’ calls for unity

The newly unveiled monument of grand prince Vladimir I, who initiated the christianization of Kievan Rus' in 988AD, is seen in central Moscow, Russia,

By Vladimir Soldatkin

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday unveiled a monument to the medieval prince who brought Christianity to the precursor of the Russian state, a figure being embraced by the Kremlin as a symbol of national identity.

Unveiling the statue to Grand Prince Vladimir near the Kremlin walls, Putin said the prince had been the spiritual founder of the Russian state.

“Today, our duty is to jointly stand up to modern challenges and threats, relying on the priceless traditions of unity and accord, moving forward and safeguarding the continuation of our 1,000-year history,” he said.

The 17.5 meter (56 foot) -tall bronze monument features prince Vladimir in flowing robes with a sword in his left hand and a cross in his right.

Grand Prince Vladimir was a ruler of Kievan Rus, the territory in modern-day Ukraine from which the Russian state would later emerge. In 988, he adopted Orthodox Christianity as the faith of his people, who were until then largely pagan.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and Patriarch Kirill, the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, attend a ceremony to unveil a monument of grand prince Vladimir I, who initiated the christianization of Kievan Rus' in 988AD, on National Unity Day in central Moscow, Russia,

Russian President Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and Patriarch Kirill, the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, attend a ceremony to unveil a monument of grand prince Vladimir I, who initiated the christianization of Kievan Rus’ in 988AD, on National Unity Day in central Moscow, Russia, November 4, 2016. REUTERS/Sergei Karpukhin

Putin, in the 16 years since he became president, has sought to build a spirit of national unity and pride, with a new emphasis on traditional Russian values.

His critics say he uses those values as a pretext to justify his stand-off with the West, which he accuses of trying to encroach on Russia’s sphere of influence and impose liberal social attitudes on its people.

The site of the new statue is between the red-brick walls of the Kremlin and the Lenin Library.

The unveiling coincided with National Unity Day, a public holiday created by Putin’s administration in 2004 to replace the Communist October Revolution Day, when tanks, missiles and troops used to parade through Red Square.

(Editing by Christian Lowe and Andrew Roche)

NATO seeks to manage Russia’s new military deployments

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg addresses a news conference during a NATO defence ministers meeting at the Alliance headquarters in Brussels, Belgium,

By Robin Emmott

BRUSSELS (Reuters) – President Vladimir Putin’s high-profile military deployments aim to showcase Russian power in any global confrontation with the West, NATO officials say, but the alliance will not seek to match Moscow’s actions.

Curtis Scaparrotti, the U.S.-led alliance’s top commander, told allied defense ministers on Wednesday that more than 120,000 Russian troops took part in exercises in September which culminated with the firing of a missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads, diplomats said.

As Russia’s sole aircraft carrier passed Europe’s shores this week, reports of its warships equipped with nuclear-capable missiles in the Baltic alarmed allies. The alliance is also concerned by Moscow’s deployment of ballistic Iskander missiles in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.

“The main challenge is not individual events or deployments,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters. “It is the overall picture, where we see a substantial increase in Russia’s capabilities at sea, in the air and on land; exercises with a more aggressive patterns.”

Stoltenberg declined to say publicly what he thought Russia’s overall aims are. But Scaparrotti, who is also a U.S. army general, told defense ministers that Russia was seeking, in military parlance, “escalation dominance,” according to people briefed on the discussions.

That strategy holds that a military power can best contain and control conflicts if it is dominant at each step in an escalation with an adversary, potentially all the way to the biggest threat of nuclear weapons.

Some military analysts believe Putin holds this doctrine close to his heart.

“Putin is showing a desire for dominance,” said a senior NATO diplomat. “From the Arctic, to the Baltic and the Black Sea, sometimes simultaneously, Russia wants to use sophisticated weaponry mixed with ships of a Soviet vintage.”

NATO-RUSSIA COUNCIL “WITHIN WEEKS”

In written remarks to reporters, Scaparrotti said only that “actions speak louder than words” and noted the Kremlin’s decision to consolidate control of the armed forces in Moscow and nuclear missile tests.

NATO says its decision to send 4,000 troops, planes, tanks and artillery to former Soviet republics in the Baltics and to Poland next year is a measured response compared to what NATO believes are 330,000 Russian troops amassed near Moscow.

“We will not mirror what Russia is doing,” Stoltenberg said. “We are not in a Cold War situation,” he said, referring to when 300,000 U.S. service personnel were stationed in Europe. NATO generals want to adhere to a 1997 agreement with Moscow not to station substantial combat forces on the NATO-Russia border.

Norway, which has a long border with Russia, will allow 330 U.S. troops to be stationed on its soil for a limited period from next year, the first time foreign troops have been posted on its territory since the end of World War Two.

Stoltenberg hopes to convene another NATO-Russia Council – the forum bringing together Russia’s top diplomat to the alliance and NATO envoys – in the next few weeks, diplomats say. Stoltenberg, who hails from Russia’s neighbor Norway, insists there is no attempt to isolate Moscow.

However, diplomats also complain that discussing such issues as Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and near-misses between Western planes and Russian jets, have come to nothing.

That leaves NATO trying to learn more about Russia’s aims if Putin continues to escalate the stand-off with the West.

“One thing we need to address is if we all have the capacity to read Russia’s behavior satisfactorily. Russia is doing a lot of new, unfamiliar things,” said Britain’s ambassador to NATO Adam Thomson, who served as a diplomat in Moscow in the 1980s.

“It is obviously trying to signal but it is not clear that we know how to understand those signals,” he told reporters.

(Reporting by Robin Emmott; Editing by Richard Balmforth)

Putin says U.S. Hysteria over Russia an election ploy

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) meets with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow, Russia

KRASNAYA POLYANA, Russia (Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday American politicians were whipping up hysteria about a mythical Russian threat in the U.S. presidential campaign as a ploy to distract voters from their own failings.

Putin, addressing an audience of foreign policy experts gathered in southern Russia, said he found it hard to believe that anyone seriously thought Moscow was capable of influencing the Nov. 8 election.

The U.S. government has formally accused Russia of a campaign of cyber attacks against Democratic Party organizations, while Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton has accused Republican rival Donald Trump of being a Putin “puppet”.

“Hysteria has been whipped up in the United States about  the influence of Russia over the U.S. presidential election,” said Putin, calling it a ruse to cover up for the fact that the U.S. political elite had nothing to say about serious issues such as the country’s national debt or gun control.

“It’s much simpler to distract people with so-called Russian hackers, spies, and agents of influence. Does anyone really think that Russia could influence the American people’s choice in any way? Is America a banana republic or what? America is a great power.”

Putin also said certain forces in the West were trying to exaggerate the threat that Russia posed in order to secure higher military spending and talk up their own importance.

He said Russia was not planning to attack anyone.

(Reporting by Gleb Stolyarov; Writing by Maria Tsvetkova/Andrew Osborn; Editing by Andrew Osborn)

Putin says U.S. hacking scandal not in Russia’s interests

Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech during the annual VTB Capital "Russia Calling!" Investment Forum in Moscow, Russia,

MOSCOW (Reuters) – The scandal that erupted in the United States over allegations Russia hacked Democratic Party emails has not been in Moscow’s interests and both sides in the U.S. election campaign are just using Russia to score points, Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday.

The U.S. government on Friday formally accused Russia for the first time of a campaign of cyber attacks against Democratic Party organizations ahead of the Nov. 8 presidential election.

And the White House said on Tuesday it would consider a variety of responses to the alleged hacks.

“They started this hysteria, saying that this (hacking) is in Russia’s interests. But this has nothing to do with Russia’s interests,” President Putin told a business forum in Moscow.

Putin said the accusations were a ploy to divert U.S. voters’ attention at a time when public opinion was being manipulated.

“Everyone is talking about ‘who did it’ (the hacking),” said Putin. “But is it that important? The most important thing is what is inside this information.”

The Kremlin said earlier on Wednesday it took a negative view of White House statements about a planned “proportional” response to the alleged cyber attacks.

Putin complained that all sides in the U.S. presidential race were misusing rhetoric about Russia for their own ends, but said Moscow would work with whoever won the election “if, of course, the new U.S. leader wishes to work with our country”.

“About a decade ago, they wouldn’t mention Russia at all, because it was not even worth talking about, such a third-rate regional power and not interesting at all. Now Russia is problem number one in the entire election campaign,” said Putin.

“All they do is keep talking about us. Of course it’s pleasant for us, but only partly because all participants are misusing anti-Russian rhetoric and poisoning our bilateral relations.”

(Reporting by Katya Golubkova and Alexander Winning; Writing by Christian Lowe; Editing by Andrew Osborn)

Exclusive: Russia builds up forces in Syria, Reuters data analysis shows

The Russian Navy's missile corvette Mirazh sails in the Bosphorus, on its way to the Mediterranean Sea, in Istanbul, Turkey,

By Jack Stubbs and Maria Tsvetkova

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia has built up its forces in Syria since a ceasefire collapsed in late September, sending in troops, planes and advanced missile systems, a Reuters analysis of publicly available tracking data shows.

The data points to a doubling of supply runs by air and sea compared to the nearly two-week period preceding the truce. It appears to be Russia’s biggest military deployment to Syria since President Vladimir Putin said in March he would pull out some of his country’s forces.

The increased manpower probably includes specialists to put into operation a newly delivered S-300 surface-to-air missile system, military analysts said.

The S-300 system will improve Russia’s ability to control air space in Syria, where Moscow’s forces support the government of President Bashar al-Assad, and could be aimed at deterring tougher U.S. action, they said.

“The S-300 basically gives Russia the ability to declare a no-fly zone over Syria,” said Justin Bronk, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London.

“It also makes any U.S. attempt to do so impossible. Russia can just say: ‘We’re going to continue to fly and anything that tries to threaten our aircraft will be seen as hostile and destroyed’.”

Russia’s Defence Ministry did not respond to written questions. A senior air force official, speaking on condition of anonymity, dismissed talk of an increase in supply shipments.

But data collated by Turkish bloggers for their online Bosphorus Naval News project, and reviewed by Reuters, shows reinforcements sent via Russia’s “Syrian Express” shipping route from the Black Sea increased throughout September and have peaked in the last week.

The data shows 10 Russian navy ships have gone through the Bosphorus en route to Syria since late September, compared with five in the 13-day period before the truce — from Aug. 27 to Sept. 7.

That number includes The Mirazh, a small missile ship which a Reuters correspondent saw heading through the Bosphorus toward the Mediterranean on Friday.

Two other Russian missile ships were deployed to the Mediterranean on Wednesday.

Some of the ships that have been sent to Syria were so heavily laden the load line was barely visible above the water, and have docked at Russia’s Tartus naval base in the Western Syrian province of Latakia. Reuters has not been able to establish what cargo they were carrying.

Troops and equipment are also returning to Syria by air, according to tracking data on website FlightRadar24.com.

Russian military cargo planes flew to Russia’s Hmeymim airbase in Syria six times in the first six days of October — compared to 12 a month in September and August, a Reuters analysis of the data shows.

INCREASED ACRIMONY

Russia sent its air force to support the Syrian Army a year ago when Moscow feared Assad was on the point of succumbing to rebel offensives. U.S.-led forces also carry out air strikes in Syria, targeting Islamic State positions.

Aerial bombardments in the past two weeks, mainly against rebel-held areas in the Syrian city of Aleppo, have been among the heaviest of the civil war, which has killed more then 300,000 people in 5-1/2 years.

Since the collapse of the ceasefire in September, acrimony between the United States and Russia has grown and Washington has suspended talks with Moscow on implementing the truce.

U.S. officials told Reuters on Sept. 28 that Washington had started considering tougher responses to the assault on Aleppo, including the possibility of air strikes on an Assad air base.

“They (Russia) probably correctly surmise that eventually American policy will change,” Bronk said, commenting on the analysis of the tracking data.

“They are thinking: ‘We’re going to have to do something about this, so better to bring in more supplies now … before it potentially becomes too touchy’.”

The FlightRadar24.com data shows Ilyushin Il-76 and Antonov An-124 cargo planes operated by the Russian military have been flying to Syria multiple times each month. It offers no indication of what the aircraft are carrying.

But the Il-76 and An-124 transporters can carry up to 50 and 150 tonnes of equipment respectively and have previously been used to airlift heavy vehicles and helicopters to Syria.

State-operated passenger planes have also made between six and eight flights from Moscow to Latakia each month. Western officials say they have been used to fly in troops, support workers and engineers.

Twice in early October, a Russian military Ilyushin plane flew to Syria from Armenia. Officials in Yerevan said the planes carried humanitarian aid from Armenia, a Russian ally.

Russia’s Izvestia newspaper reported last week that a group of Su-24 and Su-34 warplanes had arrived at the Hmeymim base in Syria, returning Russia’s fixed-wing numbers in the country to near the level before the drawdown was announced in March.

(Additional reporting by Hasmik Mkrtchyan in Yerevan and Murad Sezer in Istanbul, Writing by Jack Stubbs, Editing by Christian Lowe and Timothy Heritage)