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Putin says Russians to start withdrawing from Syria as peace talks resume

MOSCOW/GENEVA (Reuters) – President Vladimir Putin said on Monday “the main part” of Russian armed forces in Syria would start to withdraw, and instructed his diplomats to step up the push for peace as U.N.-mediated talks resumed in Geneva on ending the five-year war.

Syria announced President Bashar al-Assad had agreed on the “reduction” of Russian forces in a telephone call with Putin. Western diplomats urged caution and the anti-Assad opposition expressed bafflement, with a spokesman saying “nobody knows what is in Putin’s mind”.

Russia’s military intervention in Syria in September helped to turn the tide of war in Assad’s favor after months of gains in western Syria by rebel fighters, who were aided by foreign military supplies including U.S.-made anti-tank missiles.

Putin’s announcement – made without any advance warning to the United States – dropped out of the blue.

At a meeting with his defense and foreign ministers, Putin said Russian forces had largely fulfilled their objectives in Syria. But he gave no deadline for the completion of the withdrawal and said forces would remain at a seaport and airbase in Syria’s Latakia province.

In Geneva, United Nations mediator Staffan de Mistura warned the warring parties there was no “Plan B” other than a resumption of conflict if the first of three rounds of talks which aim to agree a “clear roadmap” for Syria failed to make progress.

Putin said at the Kremlin meeting he was ordering the withdrawal from Tuesday of “the main part of our military contingent” from the country.

“The effective work of our military created the conditions for the start of the peace process,” he said. “I believe that the task put before the defense ministry and Russian armed forces has, on the whole, been fulfilled.”

With the participation of the Russian military, Syrian armed forces “have been able to achieve a fundamental turnaround in the fight against international terrorism”, he added.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin had telephoned the Syrian president to inform him of the decision, but the two leaders had not discussed Assad’s future – the biggest obstacle to reaching a peace agreement.

The move was announced on the day United Nations-brokered talks involving the warring sides in Syria resumed in Geneva.

Moscow gave Washington no advance warning of Putin’s announcement, two U.S. officials said. Speaking on condition of anonymity, they added that they had seen no indications so far of preparations by Russia’s military for the withdrawal.

In Damascus, the Syrian presidency said Assad had agreed to the reduction in the Russian air force presence after it had helped the Syrian army to make military gains. However, a statement from the presidency added that Moscow had promised to continue support for Syria in “confronting terrorism”.

Syria regards all rebel groups fighting Assad as terrorists.

Rebels and opposition officials alike reacted cautiously to Putin’s comments.

“I don’t understand the Russian announcement, it’s a surprise, like the way they entered the war. God protect us,” Fadi Ahmad, spokesman for the First Coastal Division, a Free Syria Army group fighting in the country’s northwest, told Reuters.

Opposition spokesman Salim al-Muslat demanded a total Russian withdrawal. “Nobody knows what is in Putin’s mind, but the point is he has no right to be in be our country in the first place. Just go,” he said.

A European diplomat was also skeptical. “It has the potential to put a lot of pressure on Assad and the timing fits that,” said the diplomat.

“However, I say potentially because we’ve seen before with Russia that what’s promised isn’t always what happens.”

MOMENT OF TRUTH

The Geneva talks are the first in more than two years and come amid a marked reduction in fighting after last month’s “cessation of hostilities”, sponsored by Washington and Moscow and accepted by Assad’s government and many of his foes.

Russia’s U.N. ambassador Vitaly Churkin confirmed some forces would stay in Syria. “Our military presence will continue to be there, it will be directed mostly at making sure that the ceasefire, the cessation of hostilities, is maintained,” he told reporters at the United Nations in New York.

However, he added: “Our diplomacy has received marching orders to intensify our efforts to achieve a political settlement in Syria.”

Speaking before Putin’s announcement, de Mistura said Syria faced a moment of truth, as he opened talks to end a war which has displaced half the population, sent refugees streaming into Europe and turned Syria into a battlefield for foreign forces and jihadis.

The limited truce, which excludes the powerful Islamic State and Nusra Front groups, is fragile. The warring sides have accused each other of multiple violations, and they arrived in Geneva with what look like irreconcilable agendas.

The Syrian opposition says the talks must focus on setting up a transitional governing body with full executive power, and that Assad must leave power at the start of the transition. Damascus says Assad’s opponents are deluded if they think they will take power at the negotiating table.

The head of the government delegation, Bashar Ja’afari, described his first meeting with de Mistura on Monday as positive and constructive, adding he submitted a document entitled “Basic Elements for a Political Solution”.

In a sign of how wide the rift is, de Mistura is meeting the two sides separately – at least initially. The talks must focus on political transition, which is the “mother of all issues”, the U.N. envoy said.

Separate groups would keep tackling humanitarian issues and the cessation of hostilities. “As far as I know, the only Plan B available is return to war, and to even worse war than we had so far,” he said.

PAST FAILURES

Several ceasefires and peace talks have been attempted since the conflict, which has killed 250,000 people, broke out five years ago this week.

Hundreds of U.N. monitors were deployed to observe a ceasefire in Syria in 2012, but pulled out after fighting resumed. Peace talks in Geneva two years ago collapsed after making no progress.

De Mistura said that if he saw no willingness to negotiate in this latest search for a political agreement, he would hand the issue “back to those who have influence, and that is the Russian Federation, the USA … and to the Security Council”.

The reduction in fighting has allowed aid to be brought to besieged areas, though the opposition says the deliveries to rebel-held territory fall well short of needs.

(Additional reporting by Phil Stewart, Arshad Mohammed, Michelle Nichols, Tom Miles, Tom Perry and Stephanie Nebehay; writing by Dominic Evans and David Stamp; editing by Peter Millership)

U.S. says working with Russia on aid flow, truce in Syria

By Stephanie Nebehay

GENEVA (Reuters) – The United States is working with Russia to improve access to besieged areas in Syria and to stop the Syrian government from removing medical supplies from aid convoys, a senior U.S. official said on Wednesday.

Antony Blinken, deputy U.S. Secretary of State, said that major and regional powers were monitoring a fragile cessation of hostilities that went into force on Saturday to “prevent any escalation” but it was a “challenging process”.

“At the end of the day the best possible thing that could happen is for the cessation of hostilities to really take root, and to be sustained, for the humanitarian assistance to flow and then for the negotiations to start that lead to a political transition,” Blinken told a news conference.

The World Health Organisation said Syrian officials had “rejected” medical supplies from being part of the latest convoy to the besieged town of Moadamiya on Monday. WHO spokesman Tarik Jasarevic said they included emergency kits, trauma and burn kits and antibiotics.

“We are indeed very concerned about reports that medical supplies were removed from some of the aid convoys. This is an issue that was brought before the task force,” Blinken said, referring to the International Syria Support Group (ISSG).

“We are now working, including with Russia, to ensure that going forward medical supplies remain in the aid convoys as they deliver assistance.”

Russian officials were not immediately available to comment.

“The removal of those supplies is yet another unconscionable act by the regime, but this is now before the task force and we will look in the days ahead as assistance continues to flow to make sure that those medical supplies are in fact included,” Blinken said.

The humanitarian task force, chaired by Jan Egeland, meets again in Geneva on Thursday.

Another ISSG task force on the cessation of hostilities is handling reports of violations of the truce, which does not include Islamic State or the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front.

“We’re then able to immediately try to address them and to prevent them from reoccurring and thus to prevent any escalation that leads to the breakdown of the cessation of hostilities,” Blinken said, after talks with U.N. Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura.

“That’s the most effective way to try to keep it going and then to deepen it. But it is a very challenging process, it’s fragile and we have our eyes wide open about those challenges.”

(Reporting by Stephanie Nebehay; Editing by Janet Lawrence)

Oil below $37 as record U.S. inventories overshadow output freeze plan

By Alex Lawler

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil fell further below $37 a barrel on Wednesday as U.S. crude stockpiles rose to a new record, underlining the extent of a supply glut and countering support from producer efforts to tackle it.

Crude inventories rose by 10.4 million barrels, the U.S. government’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its weekly report released at 1530 GMT (10:30 a.m. EST), much more than analysts had expected. [EIA/S]

Global benchmark Brent crude <LCOc1> was down 45 cents at $36.36 a barrel by 1548 GMT (10:48 a.m. EST). On Tuesday, it reached $37.25, the highest in almost two months. U.S. crude <CLc1>, also known as WTI, was down 55 cents at $33.85.

“Today’s EIA data will do very little to help oil’s recent bounce,” said Chris Jarvis, analyst at Caprock Risk Management in Frederick, Maryland.

“In short, it’s difficult to make a bullish case. Signs that the glut in oil and reversal of the building trend will subside any time soon seems distant.”

The inventory rise was even larger than the 9.9 million-barrel increase reported on Tuesday by industry group the American Petroleum Institute (API). The API report had weighed on prices earlier in the session.

Brent has risen 34 percent from a 12-year low of $27.10 hit on Jan. 20, adding to expectations that further declines may not be on the cards. An analyst at the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday prices appeared to have bottomed.

Crude has collapsed from more than $100 in mid-2014, pressured by excess supply and a decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to abandon its traditional role of cutting production by itself to boost prices.

After more than a year of failing to agree any steps, OPEC and outside producers have stepped up diplomatic activity to fix the supply glut. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Venezuela and non-OPEC producer Russia said on Feb. 16 they would freeze output.

The four countries have agreed to meet again in mid-March, Venezuelan Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino said last week. The location for the talks has yet to be decided, OPEC delegates say.

In an early sign that Moscow will stick to the plan, Russia reported its oil output was little changed in February and oil company Rosneft <ROSN.MM> is even floating the idea of a domestic production cut, two industry sources said.

Saudi Arabia has yet to report its production, but a Reuters survey this week found no sign of an increase in February. <OPEC/O>

(Additional reporting by Barani Krishnan in New York and Osamu Tsukimori in Tokyo; Editing by Dale Hudson and Susan Fenton)

U.N. delays vote on tough new North Korea sanctions at Russia’s request

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) – The United Nations Security Council delayed until Wednesday a vote on a U.S.-Chinese drafted resolution that would dramatically expand U.N. sanctions on North Korea after Russia said it needed more time to review the text, diplomats said.

The vote, which had been scheduled for Tuesday afternoon, is now planned for 10 a.m. on Wednesday, the diplomats said on condition of anonymity.

“Subsequent to the United States’ request … to schedule a council vote for this afternoon, Russia invoked a procedural 24-hour review of the resolution, so the vote will be on Wednesday,” the U.S. mission to the United Nations said in a statement to reporters.

The expanded sanctions, if adopted, would require inspections of all cargo going to and from North Korea and blacklisting North Koreans active in Syria, Iran and Vietnam.

After nearly two months of bilateral negotiations that at one point involved U.S. President Barack Obama and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, China agreed to support the unusually tough measures intended to persuade its close ally North Korea to abandon its atomic weapons program.

Last week the United States presented the 15-nation council with the draft resolution that would significantly tighten restrictions after North Korea’s nuclear test and Feb. 7 rocket launch, and create what it described as the toughest U.N. sanctions regime in two decades.

Originally Washington had wanted the council to adopt the resolution last weekend but Russia had demanded more time to study it.

The draft seen by Reuters would require U.N. member states to conduct mandatory inspections of all cargo passing through their territory to or from North Korea to look for illicit goods. Previously states only had to do this if they had reasonable grounds to believe there was illicit cargo.

The list of explicitly banned luxury goods will be expanded to include luxury watches, aquatic recreational vehicles, snowmobiles worth more than $2,000, lead crystal items and recreational sports equipment.

Pyongyang denied the Feb. 7 launch involved banned ballistic missile technology, saying it was a peaceful satellite launch.

The official North Korean news agency KCNA said in a commentary on Monday its “position as a satellite manufacturer and launcher will never change (and) … space development is not something to be given up because of someone’s ‘sanctions’.”

It called the proposed sanctions “a wanton infringement on (North Korea’s) sovereignty and grave challenge to it.”

The proposal would also close a gap in the U.N. arms embargo on Pyongyang by banning all weapons imports and exports.

There would also be an unprecedented ban on the transfer to North Korea of any item that could directly contribute to the operational capabilities of its armed forces, such as trucks that could be modified for military purposes.

Other proposed measures include a ban on all supplies of aviation and rocket fuel to North Korea, a requirement for states to expel North Korean diplomats engaging in illicit activities, and blacklisting 16 North Korean individuals and 12 entities, including the National Aerospace Development Agency, or NADA, the body responsible for February’s rocket launch.

North Korea has been under U.N. sanctions since 2006 because of its four nuclear tests and multiple rocket launches.

Candidates for the blacklist include Choe Chun-sik, who was head of North Korea’s long-range missile program; Hyon Kwang Il, senior official at NADA; Yu Chol U, director of NADA; Jang Bom Sun and Jon Myong Guk, Tanchon Commercial Bank officials in Syria; Jang Yon Son and Kim Yong Chol, Korea Mining Development Trading Corporation (KOMID) representatives in Iran; and Kang Ryong and Ryu Jun, KOMID representatives in Syria.

Two Tanchon bank representatives in Vietnam are also to be blacklisted.

In addition to NADA, North Korean entities to be blacklisted include the Academy of National Defense Sciences, Chongchongang Shipping Co and the Ministry of Atomic Energy Industry.

Also new, countries will be required, not just encouraged, to freeze the assets of North Korean entities linked to Pyongyang’s nuclear or missile programs and to prohibit the opening of new branches or offices of North Korean banks or to engage in banking correspondence with them

Al Qaeda in Syria calls for more fighting as deadline nears

BEIRUT/MOSCOW (Reuters) – Syria’s branch of al Qaeda, one of its most powerful Islamist rebel groups, called for an escalation in fighting against the government and its allies, adding to the dangers facing an agreement to halt fighting set to start on Saturday.

The government and rebel groups have agreed to take part in a U.S.-Russian “cessation of hostilities” accord that is due to begin at midnight. Warring parties had been required to accept by noon.

Under the measure, which has not been signed by the Syrian warring parties themselves and is less binding than a formal ceasefire, the government and its enemies are expected to stop shooting so aid can reach civilians and peace talks begin.

The truce does not apply to jihadist groups such as Islamic State and the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front, and the Damascus government and its Russian allies say they will not halt combat against those militants. Other rebels seen as moderates by the West say they fear this will be used to justify attacks on them.

The Nusra Front on Friday urged insurgent groups to intensify their attacks against President Bashar al-Assad and his allies.

Nusra’s leader, Abu Mohamad al-Golani, said in an audio message on Orient News TV that insurgents should “strengthen your resolve and intensify your strikes, and do not let their planes and great numbers (of troops) scare you”.

Unlike Islamic State, which controls defined areas of territory in central and eastern Syria, the Nusra Front is widely dispersed in opposition-held areas in the west, and any escalation would add to the risks of the truce collapsing.

Nusra is bigger than nearly all the factions taking part in the cessation, with fighters across western Syria.

As the deadline for the cessation of hostilities approached, heavy air strikes were reported to have hit rebel-held areas near Damascus while fighting raged across much of western Syria.

The Syrian government has agreed to the cessation plan. The main opposition alliance, which has deep reservations, said it would accept it for two weeks but feared the government and its allies would use it to attack opposition factions under the pretext that they were terrorists.

President Vladimir Putin said Russia had received information that all parties expected to take part in the cessation of hostilities had said they were ready to do so, Russian news agencies reported.

Putin stressed that combat actions against Islamic State, the Nusra Front and other groups which the Syrian government regards as terrorists would continue.

“I would like to express the hope that our American partners will also bear this in mind … and that nobody will forget that there are other terrorist organizations apart from Islamic State,” he said in Moscow.

BREATHING SPACE

The United Nations hopes the pause in fighting will provide a breathing space to resume peace talks in Geneva, which collapsed this month before they began.

A Russian Foreign Ministry official said the Geneva talks could resume on March 7. In New York, diplomats said the U.N. Security Council would vote on Friday on a resolution endorsing the planned pause in fighting.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a British-based monitoring organization, on Friday reported at least 26 air raids and artillery shelling targeting the town of Douma in rebel-held Eastern Ghouta near Damascus.

Rescue workers said five people were killed in Douma. Syrian military officials could not immediately be reached for comment.

Eastern Ghouta is regularly targeted by the Syrian army and its allies. It is a stronghold of the Jaish al-Islam rebel group, which is represented in the main opposition alliance, the High Negotiations Committee. The area has been used as a launch pad for rocket and mortar attacks on Damascus.

The HNC groups political and armed opponents of President Bashar al-Assad, and many groups fighting in northern and southern Syria have authorized it to negotiate on their behalf.

The Observatory also reported artillery bombardment by government forces and air strikes overnight in Hama province, and artillery fire by government forces in Homs province.

Fighting also resumed at dawn between rebels and government forces in the northwestern province of Latakia, where the Syrian army and its allies are trying to take back more territory from insurgents at the border with Turkey.

A spokesman for President Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey has serious worries about the plan to halt violence in Syria because of the continued fighting on the ground.

Turkey’s role in the ceasefire has been complicated by its deep distrust of the Washington-backed Syrian Kurdish YPG. Ankara sees the group as a terrorist organization and has shelled YPG positions in northern Syria in recent weeks in retaliation, it says, for cross-border fire.

Washington has supported the YPG in the fight against Islamic State in Syria.

U.S. President Barack Obama said on Thursday the United States was resolved to try to make the cessation of hostilities deal work but that “there are plenty of reasons for scepticism”.

(Additional reporting by John Davison, Denis Dyomkin, Dmitry Solovyov, Jack Stubbs, Tom Miles, Tulay Karadeniz, Humeyra Pamuk, Leila Bassam and Louis Charbonneau; writing by Giles Elgood; editing by Peter Graff)

U.S. test-fires ICBMs to stress its power to Russia, North Korea

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. (Reuters) – The U.S. military test-fired its second intercontinental ballistic missile in a week on Thursday night, seeking to demonstrate its nuclear arms capacity at a time of rising strategic tensions with Russia and North Korea.

The unarmed Minuteman III missile roared out of a silo at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California late at night, raced across the sky at speeds of up to 15,000 mph and landed a half hour later in a target area 4,200 miles away near Kwajalein Atoll in the Marshall Islands of the South Pacific.

Deputy Defense Secretary Robert Work, who witnessed the launch, said the U.S. tests, conducted at least 15 times since January 2011, send a message to strategic rivals like Russia, China and North Korea that Washington has an effective nuclear arsenal.

“That’s exactly why we do this,” Work told reporters before the launch.

“We and the Russians and the Chinese routinely do test shots to prove that the operational missiles that we have are reliable. And that is a signal … that we are prepared to use nuclear weapons in defense of our country if necessary.”

Demonstrating the reliability of the nuclear force has taken on additional importance recently because the U.S. arsenal is near the end of its useful life and a spate of scandals in the nuclear force two years ago raised readiness questions.

The Defense Department has poured millions of dollars into improving conditions for troops responsible for staffing and maintaining the nuclear systems. The administration also is putting more focus on upgrading the weapons.

President Barack Obama’s final defense budget unveiled this month calls for a $1.8 billion hike in nuclear arms spending to overhaul the country’s aging nuclear bombers, missiles, submarines and other systems.

The president’s $19 billion request would allow the Pentagon and Energy Department to move toward a multiyear overhaul of the atomic arms infrastructure that is expected to cost $320 billion over a decade and up to 1 trillion dollars over 30 years.

The nuclear spending boost is an ironic turn for a president who made reducing U.S. dependence on atomic weapons a centerpiece of his agenda during his first years in office.

Obama called for a world eventually free of nuclear arms in a speech in Prague and later reached a new strategic weapons treaty with Russia. He received the Nobel Peace Prize in part based on his stance on reducing atomic arms.

“He was going to de-emphasize the role of nuclear weapons in U.S. national security policy … but in fact in the last few years he has emphasized new spending,” said John Isaacs of the Council for a Livable World, an arms control advocacy group.

Critics say the Pentagon’s plans are unaffordable and unnecessary because it intends to build a force capable of deploying the 1,550 warheads permitted under the New START treaty. But Obama has said the country could further reduce its deployed warheads by a third and still remain secure.

Hans Kristensen, an analyst at the Federation of American Scientists, said the Pentagon’s costly “all-of-the-above” effort to rebuild all its nuclear systems was a “train wreck that everybody can see is coming.” Kingston Reif of the Arms Control Association, said the plans were “divorced from reality.”

The Pentagon could save billions by building a more modest force that would delay the new long-range bomber, cancel the new air launched cruise missile and construct fewer ballistic submarines, arms control advocates said.

Work said the Pentagon understood the financial problem. The department would need $18 billion a year between 2021 and 2035 for its portion of the nuclear modernization, which is coming at the same time as a huge “bow wave” of spending on conventional ships and aircraft, he said.

“If it becomes clear that it’s too expensive, then it’s going to be up to our national leaders to debate” the issue, Work said, something that could take place during the next administration when spending pressures can no longer be ignored.

(Reporting by David Alexander; Editing by Jonathan Oatis and John Stonestreet)

Russia, Syrian army pound rebels ahead of fighting halt

BEIRUT (Reuters) – Russian warplanes bombed Syrian rebel-held areas in northwestern Syria and government forces pounded a suburb of the capital on Thursday, ahead of a planned halt to fighting which rebels predicted Damascus and Moscow would ignore.

The “cessation of hostilities” agreed by the United States and Russia is due to take hold on Saturday morning from midnight. But opponents of President Bashar al-Assad say they expect the government to press on with its advance, by branding opposition fighters al Qaeda militants unprotected by the truce.

Damascus has agreed to the deal, as has the main opposition alliance, though it is only ready to commit for two weeks given its deep reservations. But the government and its allies will be permitted to forge on with strikes against jihadist militants of Islamic State and an al Qaeda-linked group, the Nusra Front.

The government also says the agreement could fail if foreign states supply rebels with weapons or insurgents use the truce to rearm.

Fighting in the final days before the truce has focused on Daraya, a besieged suburb of the capital held by fighters the government describes as Nusra militants but rebels say are from other groups, and on the northwest near the Turkish frontier.

Four months of Russian air strikes turned momentum Assad’s way in a 5-year-old war that has killed more than 250,000 people, created the world’s worst refugee crisis and seen Islamic State fighters declare a “caliphate” in Syria and Iraq.

The multi-sided civil war has drawn in most regional and global powers, with Western countries, Arab states and Turkey forming a coalition against Islamic State while also backing rebels fighting to overthrow Assad. Russia and Iran support him.

BARREL BOMBS

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a British-based group that monitors the conflict, said army helicopters dropped at least 30 “barrel bombs” on Daraya on Thursday. Assad’s opponents say the army drops oil drums filled with explosives and shrapnel to cause indiscriminate harm in rebel areas.

The government blamed groups linked to Nusra for firing mortars into residential areas of Damascus, killing at least one person.

A spokesman for rebels in southern Syria predicted Daraya would be the first place where the truce would collapse.

“They want to exploit the ceasefire and focus their fire on Daraya to take it. This will be the first breach. We won’t accept it,” said Abu Ghiath al-Shami, spokesman for the Alwiyat Seif al-Sham group, part of a rebel alliance in the south.

A Syrian military source also signaled that Damascus would not cease fighting in Daraya.

“There is evidence that the ones there are Nusra Front. They found documents, books, flags that point to the Nusra Front being in Daraya,” the military source said. “In any place where there is Nusra Front, we will continue operations.”

Fighting has also escalated in the last two days in the northwestern province of Latakia, where Free Syrian Army groups backed by Assad’s foreign enemies operate close to Nusra fighters and other jihadists.

“The regime wants to try to retake all of northern Latakia before Feb. 26,” said Fadi Ahmad, spokesman for the First Coastal Division rebel group, speaking to Reuters from the area.

VERY FIERCE BATTLES

“The battles are very fierce. Yesterday, there were heavy battles in the part of rural Latakia that is still with us,” he said, adding he did not expect the government or its Russian allies to abide by the truce: “Three minutes ago I saw a Russian plane in the sky hitting us here in rural Latakia.”

The Syrian military source also said operations were taking place in the northern Latakia area.

Recapturing areas of Latakia province at the Turkish border has been a top priority for Damascus and its allies since Russia began its strikes. It is one of several areas where the government has made major gains this year.

Rami Abdulrahman, director of the Observatory, confirmed heavy air strikes in northern Latakia on Wednesday and Thursday.

He predicted the presence of the Nusra Front and like-minded groups would give the government grounds to press on with fighting there under the agreement.

One of the main purposes of the cessation of hostilities is to allow aid to reach civilians, especially in besieged areas cut off from supplies.

A U.N. air-drop of food to 200,000 people in the besieged city of Deir al-Zor failed on Wednesday, with all 21 palettes dropped by parachute either damaged, landing in no-man’s land or unaccounted for, a U.N. World Food Programme spokeswoman said.

U.N. advisor Jan Egeland nevertheless said the cessation of hostilities could rescue the civilian population from “the abyss” and end the “black chapter” of sieges.

Assad told Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday his government was ready to help implement the halt to fighting. The two leaders nevertheless stressed the importance of an “uncompromising” fight against Islamic State, the Nusra Front and other jihadists not party to the truce.

U.S. President Barack Obama on Wednesday said he was cautious about raising expectations, but if some progress were made that would lead to a political process to end the war.

“THERE’S NO PLAN B”

Russian officials have seized on comments by Secretary of State John Kerry that Washington would consider a “Plan B” if the ceasefire failed. Russia’s RIA news agency quoted Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov saying there was no such “Plan B”.

Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova accused “some U.S. officials” of trying to “sabotage” the ceasefire plan.

However, after more than five years of failure to negotiate any end to fighting, and with Russia’s intervention having had a decisive impact on the ground, it was not clear what sort of fallback plan Washington might consider if the truce fails.

Bob Corker, chairman of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee and a Republican critic of the Obama administration, said of Putin: “I think he understands there’s no ‘plan B’.”

The Russians were “now dominating,” Corker told MSNBC. “It’s totally in Russia’s hands now.”

United Nations Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura said he would announce on Friday a date for a new round of talks between Syria’s warring parties. The last talks were called off this month before they got under way, with rebels saying they could not talk while government troops advanced and Russia bombed.

The Syrian Kurdish YPG militia told Reuters on Wednesday it would abide by the plan to halt fighting but reserved the right to respond if attacked. The YPG is an important partner in the U.S-led coalition fighting Islamic State, but has also been fighting other insurgent groups in northwestern Syria near Aleppo, and is considered an enemy by NATO member Turkey.

Turkey, which has fired across the frontier at the YPG, said it would not consider itself bound by the cessation of hostilities if it were threatened by either the YPG or Islamic State.

(Additional reporting by Jack Stubbs in Moscow, Tom Miles in Geneva and Susan Heavey in Washington, writing by Tom Perry and Peter Graff, editing by Peter Millership)

Kerry issues warning as Syrian parties back halt to fighting

BEIRUT/WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and rebel groups accepted a plan for a cessation of hostilities to begin on Saturday and the United States warned it would be hard to hold the country together if the fighting did not stop.

With hostilities reported on several fronts, rebels backed by Saudi Arabia expressed doubts about the proposal, which excludes attacks by the Syrian army and its Russian backers on the jihadist groups Islamic State and the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front. Saudi-backed rebels said Russia had stepped up air strikes since the plan was announced on Monday.

For its part, the government in Damascus has made clear that continued foreign help for the rebels could wreck the deal.

Secretary of State John Kerry said the United States would soon know if the plan would take hold. “The proof will be in the actions that come in the next days,” he told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in Washington.

If a political transition to a government to replace the current administration does not unfold in Syria, there are “Plan B” options, Kerry said, in a reference to undefined contingency plans believed to include military action.

The next month or two would show if that transition process was serious and Assad would have to make “some real decisions about the formation of a transitional governance process that’s real,” Kerry said.

“It may be too late to keep it as a whole Syria if we wait much longer,” Kerry said.

France said the leaders of the United States, France, Britain and Germany hoped the cessation deal could take effect soon.

The plan is the result of intense diplomacy to end the five-year-long war that has killed 250,000 and forced millions to flee their homes helping to cause a refugee crisis in Europe.

But rebels say the exclusion of Islamic State and Nusra Front will give the government a pretext to keep attacking them because its fighters are widely spread in opposition-held areas.

WAR OF WORDS

The Syrian government, backed by Russian air strikes since September, said it would coordinate with Russia to define which groups and areas would be included in what it called a “halt to combat operations”.

The terminology reflects the difficulties of getting peace efforts under way, with talks in Geneva making no headway and the failure amid further fighting of a cessation of hostilities announced on Feb. 12.

The United Nations describes a cessation as something that would precede the more formal ceasefire it is hoping to establish at some future date.

U.N. spokesman Ahmad Fawzi said: “A ceasefire implies a whole mechanism and agreements, signed agreements between the parties etc. This is a cessation of hostilities that we hope will take force very quickly and provide a breathing space for the intra-Syrian talks to resume.”

Assad objects to the word “ceasefire”, saying it is something concluded between armies or states. “It does not happen between a state and terrorists,” he said last week. Instead, he has offered a “halt to combat operations”.

The Russian intervention in the fighting has turned the momentum Assad’s way in a conflict that has mostly reduced his area of control to the big cities of the west and the coast.

U.S. Republican Senator Bob Corker, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said he did not believe Russia was convinced it would suffer any consequences if the plan fails. He said he expected Assad’s forces, backed by Russia, would continue to seize territory.

“I don’t think Russia believes that anything is going to happen. And I think that’s why they continue to make the gains,” Corker said.

ALEPPO SUPPLY ROUTE

On Tuesday, Islamic State fighters were reported to have tightened their grip on a supply route to Aleppo that had been used by the Syrian government in its campaign to seize the city.

Heavy Russian air strikes in support of the army were also said to be targeting one of the last roads into opposition-held parts of Aleppo.

Damascus, backed by ground forces including Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Iranian Revolutionary Guards, is making significant advances near Aleppo, which is split between rebel- and government-control.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which reports the war using a network of sources on the ground, said Islamic State fighters had seized the village of Khanaser on the road, which remained closed for a second day. A Syrian military source told Reuters that army operations continued to repel the attack.

In a statement on the proposed cessation of hostilities, the government in Damascus stressed the importance of sealing Syria’s borders and halting foreign support for armed groups whose activities it said could wreck the agreement.

BLOCKADES, AID AND AIR STRIKES

The Syrian military reserved the right to “respond to any breach by these groups against Syrian citizens or against its armed forces”, the government statement added.

The main, Saudi-backed Syrian opposition body said late on Monday it consented to international efforts, but said acceptance of a truce was conditional on an end to blockades of rebel-held areas, free access for humanitarian aid, a release of detainees, and a halt to air strikes against civilians.

The opposition High Negotiations Committee also said it did not expect Assad, Russia or Iran to cease hostilities.

The powerful Kurdish YPG militia, which is fighting both Islamic State and rebels near Aleppo, is “seriously examining” the U.S.-Russian plan to decide whether to take part, a YPG official told Reuters.

Turkey, a major sponsor of the insurgency against Assad, said it welcomed plans for the halt to fighting but was not optimistic about a positive outcome to talks on a political transition.

A rebel fighter in the Aleppo area said he did not expect the ceasefire plan to work and Russian warplanes “will not stop bombing”.

(Additional reporting by Kinda Makieh in Damascus, Orhan Coskun in Ankara, Guy Faulconbridge in London and Stephanie Nebehay in Geneva; Writing by Giles Elgood and Andrew Hay; Editing by Peter Millership and Peter Cooney)

Syrian rebels see flaws in U.S.-Russia truce plan

WASHINGTON/BEIRUT (Reuters) – The United States and Russia announced plans for a ‘cessation of hostilities’ in Syria that would take effect on Saturday but exclude groups such as Islamic State and al Qaeda’s Nusra Front, a loophole that Syrian rebels immediately highlighted as a problem.

Monday’s agreement, described by a U.N. spokesman as “a first step towards a more durable ceasefire”, is the fruit of intensive diplomacy between Washington and Moscow, which back opposing sides in the five-year-old civil war that has killed more than a quarter of a million people.

Presidents Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin discussed the accord by phone, and the Kremlin leader said it could “radically transform the crisis situation in Syria”. The White House said it could help advance talks on bringing about political change in Syria.

To succeed, the deal will require both countries to persuade their allies on the ground to comply.

It allows the Syrian army and allied forces, as well as Syrian opposition fighters, to respond with “proportionate use of force” in self-defense. And it leaves a significant loophole by allowing continued attacks, including air strikes, against Islamic State, Nusra and other militant groups.

Bashar al-Zoubi, head of the political office of the Yarmouk Army, part of the rebel Free Syrian Army, said this would provide cover for President Bashar al-Assad and his Russian allies to continue to attack opposition-held territory where rebel and militant factions are tightly packed.

“Russia and the regime will target the areas of the revolutionaries on the pretext of the Nusra Front’s presence, and you know how mixed those areas are, and if this happens, the truce will collapse,” he said.

“CRITICAL ISSUE”

Since intervening with air strikes in support of Assad in September, Russia has helped pave the way for significant advances by government forces in a conflict that has sucked in a host of world and regional powers.

The Syrian army is backed by Moscow, Iran and fighters from Lebanon’s Hezbollah; ranged against them are rebels supported by the United States, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

A joint U.S.-Russian statement said the two countries and others would work together to delineate the territory held by Islamic State, Nusra Front and the other militant groups excluded from the truce.

But rebel officials said it was impossible to pinpoint positions held by Nusra.

“For us, al-Nusra is a problematic point, because al-Nusra is not only present in Idlib, but also in Aleppo, in Damascus and in the south. The critical issue here is that civilians or the Free Syrian Army could be targeted under the pretext of targeting al-Nusra,” said a senior opposition figure, Khaled Khoja.

He said the cessation would be for an initial two weeks and “could be extended indefinitely if the parties commit to it.”

The main opposition body, the High Negotiations Committee, was convening a meeting in the Saudi capital Riyadh on Monday to discuss the truce.

Assad said on Saturday he was ready for a ceasefire, on condition that opposition forces he describes as terrorists did not use a lull in fighting to their advantage, and that countries backing insurgents halted support for them.

In a sign of confidence, reflecting his growing momentum on the battlefield, Assad on Monday called a parliamentary election for April 13. The timing was not a surprise as elections are held every four years and the last one was in 2012.

A U.N. Security Council resolution in December called for elections within 18 months under a new constitution, and administered by the United Nations.

TALKS “VERY SOON”

U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon welcomed the U.S.-Russian announcement, which follows a failed attempt by his Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura last month to restart peace talks in Geneva.

“The Secretary-General strongly urges the parties to abide by the terms of the agreement,” Ban’s spokesman Stephane Dujarric said. “Much work now lies ahead to ensure its implementation.”

De Mistura told Reuters the cessation accord could allow a resumption of negotiations. “We can now relaunch very soon the political process which is needed to end this conflict,” he said.

In a guarded reaction, U.N. Deputy Secretary-General Jan Eliasson told Reuters he was “not pessimistic”.

Under the terms of the cessation, parties would indicate their agreement to the United States and Russia by noon on Friday Damascus time (1000 GMT), and the truce would go into effect at midnight, the two countries said.

Syrian government and allied forces will cease attacks against armed opposition forces, and vice versa, with any weapons including rockets, mortars, anti-tank guided missiles.

The agreement does not spell out in detail how the truce will be monitored, let alone enforced. While the United States and Russia will establish a communication “hotline” and encourage others to share information about violations, they have yet to make explicit how they plan to do so.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said there were “significant challenges ahead”. He urged all parties to accept the terms of the deal, which he said could reduce the violence and help get aid to besieged areas.

Israeli Defence Minister Moshe Yaalon, in a speech aboard a U.S. navy ship visiting Israel as part of a joint military drill, said: “It is difficult to see a stable ceasefire in actuality, with all players agreeing to it.”

NO LET-UP

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a British-based monitoring group, said fighting and air strikes continued unabated across Syria on Monday.

Islamic State attacked the Syrian government’s main supply route from Damascus to the northern city of Aleppo, a day after the group targeted Damascus and Homs in some of the bloodiest car bomb attacks of the war.

A rebel fighting government forces and Kurdish militia in the Aleppo area said there was no sign of a let-up. “The battles are in full force,” he told Reuters.

Fred Hof, a former State Department Syria specialist now at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington, said the proposed timetable gave Russia, Iran and Syria five more days to complete the encirclement of rebels in Aleppo.

“Indeed, success of this initiative – including widespread humanitarian relief for Syrian civilians – requires good faith and decency by three parties who have shown little or none during the duration of this crisis,” Hof said. “Let’s hope they change their spots.”

In a report published on Monday, a U.N.-backed panel said war crimes were widespread, and Syrian government forces and Islamic State militants continued to commit crimes against humanity in the face of inaction by the international community.

“Flagrant violations of human rights and international humanitarian law continue unabated, aggravated by blatant impunity,” the U.N. Independent International Commission of Inquiry said.

(Additional reporting by Tom Perry, Jonathan Landay, Dasha Afanasieva, Jason Bush, Lisa Barrington, Omar Fahmy, Louis Charbonneau and Dan Williams; Writing by Mark Trevelyan; Editing by Janet Lawrence)

Violence rages in Syria as Kerry, Lavrov reach provisional deal on ceasefire

AMMAN/BEIRUT (Reuters) – U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said on Sunday he and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, had reached a provisional agreement on terms of a cessation of hostilities in Syria and the sides were closer to a ceasefire than ever before.

Meanwhile, violence continued to rage in Syria. Multiple bomb blasts in a southern district of Damascus killed at least 87 people on Sunday, the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said, and twin car bombs killed at least 59 people in Homs, the monitoring group said.

Russian air strikes launched in September against rebels fighting President Bashar al-Assad have exacerbated suffering and destruction in Syria, where a five-year-old civil war has killed more than a quarter of a million people.

Assad said on Saturday he was ready for a ceasefire on condition “terrorists” did not use a lull in fighting to their advantage and that countries backing the insurgents stopped supporting them.

The Syrian opposition had earlier said it had agreed to the “possibility” of a temporary truce, provided there were guarantees Damascus’s allies, including Russia, would cease fire, sieges were lifted and aid deliveries were allowed country-wide.

“We have reached a provisional agreement in principle on the terms of a cessation of hostilities that could begin in the coming days,” Kerry told a news conference in Amman with Jordanian Foreign Minister Nasser Judeh.

“The modalities for a cessation of hostilities are now being completed. In fact, we are closer to a ceasefire today than we have been,” said Kerry, who was also to meet King Abdullah.

He declined to go into detail about the unresolved issues, saying the two sides were “filling out the details” of the agreement. And he indicated issues remained to be resolved and he did not expect any immediate change on the ground.

He repeated the U.S. position that Assad had to step down. “With Assad there, this war cannot and will not end,” he said.

Assad’s fate has been one of the main points of difference between Washington and Russia, the Syrian leader’s main international backer. Russia recently has begun to say Syrians should decide on whether Assad should stay or not, but it continues to support Damascus with air strikes.

OBAMA AND PUTIN TO TALK

Kerry said he had spoken to Lavrov on several occasions, including earlier on Sunday, and that he anticipated U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin would talk in the coming days to complete the provisional agreement in principle.

The Russian Foreign Ministry confirmed Lavrov and Kerry had spoken by phone on Sunday about conditions for a ceasefire. It said the discussions were on conditions that would exclude operations against organizations “recognized as terrorist by U.N. Security Council”.

Those groups include Islamic State and the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front.

Despite the provisional agreement, Kerry did not see an imminent change in fighting on the ground.

“I do not believe that in the next few days, during which time we try to bring this into effect, there is somehow going to be a tipping point with respect to what is happening on the ground … The opposition has made clear their determination to fight back,” he said.

The car bombs and suicide attacks on Sunday in the Sayeda Zeinab district of Damascus, where Syria’s holiest Shi’ite shrine is located, were claimed by Islamic State. Suicide attacks last month in the same district, also claimed by Islamic State, killed 60 people.

The car bombings on Sunday in Homs, in which at least 100 were also wounded, were among the deadliest in the city in five years of fighting, the Syrian Observatory said.

Kerry said any deal would take a few days to come together, while the two sides consulted with other countries and the Syrian opposition. Russia had to speak to the Syrian government and Iran, and the United States had to speak to the Syrian opposition and its partners, Kerry said.

Russia’s RIA news agency said on Sunday that Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu had arrived in Tehran, quoting a source in the Russian Embassy in Iran. It did not give a reason for the visit.

(Additional reporting by Suleiman al-Khalidi, Kinda Makieh and Katya Golubkova; Editing by Richard Balmforth, Larry King)