The Jim Bakker Show

Savaged dollar steadies ahead of Fed, stocks rise

By Marc Jones

LONDON (Reuters) – The dollar steadied on Wednesday and world stocks made their first gain in five days, having been whipped into worry by Trump administration claims that Germany, Japan and China had devalued their currencies.

The dollar <.DXY> suffered its worst January in three decades after President Donald Trump complained that every “other country lives on devaluation,” while the U.S sat by “like a bunch of dummies”.

It recovered a modest <.DXY> 0.15 percent in Asian and European trading. Bruised dollar bulls reassured themselves that the Federal Reserve should signal later that it still plans to raise U.S. interest rates a number of times this year.

Wall Street futures also pointed to a 0.3-0.6 percent bounce <ESc1> after Apple <AAPL.O> reported a strong revival in iPhone sales and healthy results from a slew of Europe’s bluechips had lifted its big bourses 1 percent.

That all combined to help MSCI’s 46-country All World index snap a four-day losing streak <.MIWD00000PUS> though the recent protectionist noises from Trump’s team kept markets jittery.

Trump’s top trade adviser had also said on Tuesday that Germany was using a “grossly undervalued” euro to exploit its trading partners. The accusations drew rebuttals from German and Japanese officials, but looked likely to run for some time.

“The issue is at what point do investors get concerned that the potential negative shock effects from trade, immigration and geopolitics overwhelm the positives (of potential U.S. stimulus),” said Bluebay asset management head of Credit Strategy David Riley.

There was little reaction to a raft of European data. Sterling <GBP=D3> nudged up after figures showed its fall since June’s Brexit vote had stoked the sharpest rise in factory costs on record a day ahead of a Bank of England inflation report.

Euro zone factories meanwhile started 2017 by ramping up activity at the fastest rate for nearly six years.

Despite that France’s government borrowing costs continued to outpace Germany’s or even Belgium’s as pressure simmered ahead of elections in April and May.

Marine Le Pen’s strongly polling National Front party said on Tuesday it would put leaving the euro at the heart of its economic platform.

“The France (bond yield) spread to Belgium is the gauge we use for political risk, and that has widened further after an adviser to Le Pen fleshed out their Frexit plans,” said ING strategist Martin van Vliet, using a term similar to the Brexit

FED ON HOLD

Overnight in Asia, Japanese investors seemed relieved the yen’s rise <JPY=> against the dollar on Tuesday had not been larger. They nudged the Nikkei <.N225> up 0.6 percent and MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.MIAPJ0000PUS> up 0.1 percent in a largely quiet session.

Chinese markets were still on holiday but surveys from the Asian giant showed manufacturing and services activity continued to expand in January.

Exports from tech bellwether South Korea also grew at the fastest pace in almost five years, another sign the global economy had been on the mend before all the talk of U.S. protectionism darkened the air.

Investors’ hopes for a fiscal boost to the world’s largest economy under Trump have been tempered by controversial and protectionist policies that have seen him suspend travel to the United States from seven Muslim-majority countries.

The policy uncertainty only added to expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady when it concludes a two-day meeting later Wednesday.

The recent retreat in the dollar also boosted a range of commodities, with copper near two-month highs as a strike also loomed the world’s biggest copper mine in Chile <CMCU3>.

Oil edged further above $55 a barrel too supported by signs that Russia and OPEC producers are delivering on promised supply reductions. Brent crude oil <LCOc1> for April added 55 cents to $56.14, while U.S. crude <CLc1> rose 47 cents to $53.29.

(Additional reporting by Wayne Cole in Sydney; Editing by Toby Chopra)

Rethink on Trump hits dollar and world stocks

electronic board in Japan showing stock prices

By John Geddie

LONDON (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar headed for its worst start to a year in over a decade on Tuesday, while world stocks cemented their biggest losses in six weeks after widespread protests against President Donald Trump’s stringent curbs on travel to the United States.

Thousands took to the streets of major U.S. cities to oppose the travel ban, which also halts refugee arrivals, while marches in Britain added to pressure on Prime Minister Theresa May to cancel a planned state visit by Trump.

A stream of U.S. policymakers and business executives have also slammed Trump’s stance.

The dollar lost more ground against a basket of six major currencies <.DXY> on Tuesday, on track for a slump of over 2 percent this month – its worst start to the year since 2006.

Against the safe haven yen, the dollar slipped to 113.28 yen <JPY=>, set for a fall of over 3 percent this month.

MSCI’s gauge of the world’s top 46 stock markets <.MIWD00000PUS> failed to recover any ground on Tuesday, after a 0.6 percent slide on Monday which was its largest loss in a month and a half.

Futures showed Wall Street opening around 0.2 percent lower <ESc1>, with the S&P 500 index set to add to its biggest daily fall in a month, seen on Monday.

“His actions over the last few days are another reminder that there were two sides to his campaign and Trump is just as adamant to follow through on those measures that will likely weigh on market sentiment in the coming months,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA.

Benchmark German government bond yields edged higher as the euro zone posted better-than-expected inflation and growth data, a trend that plays into the hands of a minority of policymakers calling for an end to the European Central Bank’s ultra-easy stance.

European bourses <.STOXX> clawed back some ground after big losses on Monday, buoyed by strong results from the likes of British online supermarket Ocado <OCDO.L>.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.MIAPJ0000PUS> fell 0.6 percent while Japan’s Nikkei <.N225> dropped 1.7 percent, its biggest fall in almost three months.

Supported by signs of accelerating momentum in the global economy, most stock markets remained up on the month as a whole. MSCI’s ex-Japan Asian shares index was up 5.8 percent this month while its index of world markets was up 2.7 percent.

For Reuters Live Markets blog on European and UK stock markets see reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=http://emea1.apps.cp.extranet.thomsonreuters.biz/cms/?pageId=livemarkets

DOLLAR RALLY OVER?

In other currencies, the euro <EUR=> edged up to $1.0756 against the U.S. dollar after Trump’s trade adviser told the Financial Times that Germany was benefiting from a “grossly undervalued” exchange rate. It has bounced back from a 14-year low of $1.0340 set on Jan. 3.

“We sense the strong U.S. dollar policy is over, a thing of the past,” said Mizuho’s head of hedge fund FX sales, Neil Jones. “Recent U.S. concern over a strong U.S. dollar versus China is now feeding into the euro zone with the comment on an undervalued euro.”

The British pound <GBP=D4> fell by almost a full cent after weaker than expected data on consumer credit added to a handful of tentative signs that the UK economy may finally be slowing on the back of last year’s Brexit vote.

Elevated uncertainty about Trump’s policies, including a lack of detail so far on his plans for tax cuts and fiscal spending, is tempering optimism on the U.S. economy. Over half of the global investors polled by Reuters this month said they thought Trump’s stimulus plans would fail to meet existing market expectations.

Data on Monday showed U.S. consumer spending accelerated in December while inflation showed some signs of picking up last month.

The core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose 1.7 percent on a year-on-year basis after a similar gain in November.

The Federal Reserve, which starts its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged as it awaits greater clarity on Trump’s economic policies.

(Additional reporting by Jemima Kelly in London and Hideyuki Sano in Tokyo; Editing by Mark Trevelyan)

Wall St. set to open lower after Trump’s travel curbs

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange

By Yashaswini Swamynathan

(Reuters) – U.S. stocks looked set to open lower on Monday, amid uncertainty following President Donald Trump’s orders to curb travel and immigration from certain countries.

Trump on Friday signed executive orders to bar admission of Syrian refugees and suspend travel to the United States from Syria, Iraq, Iran and four other countries on the grounds of national security.

Thousands of people rallied in major U.S. cities and at airports in protest, while several countries including long-standing American allies criticized the measures as discriminatory and divisive.

The promise of tax cuts and simpler regulations had lured investors into equity markets since Trump’s election in November, but some are worried about the potential risk of his protectionist policies.

The pullback in futures suggests that the Dow Jones Industrial Average <.DJI> could fall below the 20,000 mark it hit for the first time ever on Wednesday.

“A new week of trading is getting off on a sour note, as key macro news, Fed action, international and domestic backlash over Trump’s immigration stand are putting investors on the defense,” Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at First Standard Financial, wrote in a note.

“We look for a bumpy to negative ride as the ‘Worry Trade’ rules the day.”

Dow e-minis <1YMc1> were down 70 points, or 0.35 percent, at 8:32 a.m. ET (1332 GMT), with 21,512 contracts changing hands.

S&P 500 e-minis <ESc1> were down 9.25 points, or 0.4 percent, with 128,685 contracts traded.

Nasdaq 100 e-minis <NQc1> were down 21.5 points, or 0.42 percent, on volume of 22,585 contracts.

A report from the U.S. Commerce Department showed consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, increased 0.5 percent after a 0.2 percent gain in November.

Shares of big technology companies Microsoft <MSFT.O>, Alphabet <GOOGL.O> and Netflix <NFLX.O> were down between 0.60 percent and 0.90 percent in premarket trading on Monday. Apple <AAPL.O> and Facebook <FB.O>, which are scheduled to report results this week, were also lower.

Tempur Sealy <TPX.N> dropped 26 percent to $46.70 after the company said it terminated its contracts with mattress retailer Mattress Firm following disagreements over changes in their contracts.

Data technology company Ixia <XXIA.O> rose 5.8 percent to $19.25 after Keysight Technologies <KEYS.N> said it would buy the company for about $1.6 billion.

(Reporting by Yashaswini Swamynathan in Bengaluru; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila)

Stocks bask in Dow’s afterglow, dollar perks up

By Marc Jones

LONDON (Reuters) – World stock markets climbed strongly on Thursday, with investors basking in the afterglow of a break past 20,000 points for Wall Street’s record high Dow Jones index.

MSCI’s 46-country All World index <.MIWD00000PUS> was within touching distance of its lifetime high as European stocks [.EU] rose to their highest since Dec. 2015, completing a global loop after Asia’s main bourses also saw a bumper session. [.T]

The “Trump trade”, based on hopes of U.S. stimulus reflating growth, would appear to be back on – egged on by some impressive corporate earnings, higher commodity prices and signs that growth is finally finding some traction worldwide.

The Dow’s record run looked set to continue later [.N] and the curious outlier of recent weeks, the dollar <.DXY>, pushed off seven-week low it had hit after Trump confirmed he was ready to start building his controversial border wall with Mexico. [FRX/]

There were no such wrinkles in bond markets. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields <US10YT=RR> were back above 2.53 percent to their highest of 2017 so far and the equivalent German <DE10YT=TWEB> and French yields jumped to their highest levels in over a year.

“The reflation trades are being driven by two main things,” said Neil Williams, chief economist at fund manager Hermes.

“Countries more willing to open the fiscal box and we are awaiting Mr Trump’s long-awaited tax cuts in mid-year. And second is the prospect of ultra-loose monetary policy.”

In commodities, crude oil prices also bounced as global sentiment lifted and the dollar weakened, which helps non-U.S. buyers of dollar-denominated raw materials. [O/R]

U.S. crude <CLc1> was up 0.8 percent at $53.18 a barrel after losing the same amount the previous day. Brent added 0.8 percent to $55.53 a barrel <LCOc1>, while cooper hit a two-month high as a strike loomed at the world’s biggest mine in Chile.

DON’T STOP ME DOW

Wall Street traders were already sifting through results from the likes of Ford <F.N>, Caterpillar <CAT.N> and Dow Chemical <DOW.N>. Service sector PMI numbers are also due later to provide the macro temperature of the world’s largest economy.

The Dow Index had been flirting with 20,000 points for weeks so it brought widespread cheer – and cap brandishing – when it broke through. It only topped 19,000 in November and this was the second-shortest time on record to jump 1,000 points.

SEB investment management’s global head of asset allocation Hans Peterson said he was now taking stock following the moves.

“We are neutral on the U.S. (stocks)” he said. “We think it is sort of stretched although not extremely stretched and not as far as it has been, but (U.S. Treasury) yields are going up and the dollar might be closer towards its turing point.”

Europe’s cross-country European STOXX 600 index <.STOXX> was trading 0.3 percent higher by 1300 GMT at its highest since December 2015. Germany’s DAX <.GDAXI> hit its highest since May 2015 and London’s FTSE <.FTSE> was near an all-time record.

Milan <.FTMIB> also showed little sign of nerves after Italy’s constitutional court on Wednesday opened the way for new elections this year, potentially in the summer and one which will be another populist battle.

Asian shares <.MIAPJ0000PUS> had a good day too. Japan’s Nikkei <.N225> brushed aside a stronger yen to rise 1.7 percent, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng <.HSI> climbed 1.3 percent and Shanghai <.SSEC> edged up ahead of a week-long Lunar New Year holiday.

“Today’s excitement mainly comes from strong U.S. stocks overnight, but people are also positive about Japanese companies’ earnings, especially machinery manufacturers,” said Takuya Takahashi, a strategist at Daiwa Securities in Tokyo.

Back in the currency markets, sterling hit a six-week high after solid GDP data before fizzling. The dollar index <.DXY>, which tracks the greenback against six other top currencies, clawed back from its overnight lows to stand flat on the day.

“The problem that the greenback is having right now is two- fold – first Trump has been talking down the currency and second, his policies make foreign investors nervous,” wrote Kathy Lien, managing director of FX strategy for BK Asset Management.

For Reuters Live Markets blog on European and UK stock markets see reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=http://emea1.apps.cp.extranet.thomsonreuters.biz/cms/?pageId=livemarkets

(Additional reporting by Shinichi Saoshiro in Tokyo; Editing by Gareth Jones)

Dow hits 20,000 as post-election rally roars back to life

By Yashaswini Swamynathan, Rodrigo Campos and Chuck Mikolajczak

(Reuters) – The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded above 20,000 for the first time on Wednesday, resuming a rally that began in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump’s surprise election victory.

The rally roared back to life after Trump signed numerous executive orders on Tuesday, including clearing the path for the construction of two oil pipelines to boost the energy industry.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite indexes also hit record intraday highs.

The Dow came within a point of the historic mark on Jan. 6, as investors banked on pro-growth policies and tax cuts many expect from the new administration.

“Trump’s been on the job for five days and he’s a man of action,” said Brian Battle, director of trading at Performance Trust Capital Partners in Chicago.

“That should get everyone confident he’ll get those three other things done … which is taxes, trade and regulation.”

Trump tweeted “Great!#Dow20K”.

The venerable index had stalled recently, dropping modestly in consecutive weeks, as investors grew cautious as they looked for clarity on the administration’s new policies.

If the index remains above 20,000 by closing time, the 42-session surge from the first close above 19,000 would mark the second-shortest length of time between such milestones.

The most rapid rise was between 10,00 and 11,000 from March 29 to May 3, which took 24 days. The rise from 18,000 to 19,000 took the Dow 483 trading sessions.

The surge since Nov. 22, when the index closed above 19,000 for the first time, has been spearheaded by financial stocks – with Goldman Sachs <GS.N> and JPMorgan <JPM.N> accounting for about 20 percent of the gain.

On Wednesday, Boeing <BA.N> rose 2.7 percent after its earnings and IBM <IBM.N> gained 1.4 percent, helping to push the index over the top. Goldman rose 0.7 percent.

At 10:11 a.m. ET (1512 GMT), the Dow <.DJI> was up 137.14 points, or 0.69 percent, at 20,049.85. Only six of its 30 components were lower.

The S&P 500 <.SPX> was up 13.69 points, or 0.60 percent, at 2,293.76 and the Nasdaq Composite <.IXIC> was up 40.53 points, or 0.72 percent, at 5,641.49.

Eight of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors were higher, led by a 1.05 percent rise in financials <.SPSY>.

Utilities <.SPLRCU>, real estate <.SPLRCR> and telecom services <.SPLRCL> – defensive parts of the market – were the outliers.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by 1,941 to 824. On the Nasdaq, 1,902 issues rose and 658 fell.

The S&P 500 index showed 71 new 52-week highs and one new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 145 new highs and six new lows.

(Reporting by Yashaswini Swamynathan in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D’Silva)

Wall St. to open higher as Trump rally reignites

Traders working in New York Stock Exchange

By Yashaswini Swamynathan

(Reuters) – U.S. stocks looked set for a higher open on Wednesday, with the Dow set to take a shot at 20,000, following a raft of strong quarterly earnings and optimism around President Donald Trump’s pro-growth policies.

The Trump rally, which had driven Wall Street to a series of record highs since November, had been sputtering in recent weeks as investors sought clarity on his growth initiatives.

The S&P 500 <.SPX> and the Nasdaq Composite <.IXIC> closed at record levels on Tuesday as the post-election rally roared back to life after Trump signed executive orders to move forward with the construction of two oil pipelines.

He also pushed chief executives of the Big Three U.S. automakers to create jobs by building more plants in the United States. Shares of Ford <F.N>, General Motors <GM.N> and Fiat Chrysler <FCAU.N> rose in premarket trading.

“You are seeing futures continue from yesterday’s euphoria as more money gets put to work,” said Drew Forman, co-head of sales and trading equity at Macro Risk Advisors in New York.

The dollar dropped to a near seven-week low on Wednesday of 99.84 as concerns about Trump’s protectionism stance on trade lingered.

Dow e-minis <1YMc1> were up 77 points, or 0.39 percent at 8:19 a.m. ET (1319 GMT), with 24,697 contracts changing hands.

S&P 500 e-minis <ESc1> were up 8.25 points, or 0.36 percent, with 118,032 contracts traded. The index hit a record high earlier in the day.

Nasdaq 100 e-minis <NQc1> were up 24.75 points, or 0.49 percent, on volume of 24,262 contracts.

A largely positive fourth-quarter earnings season also boosted investor confidence. Of the 79 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings so far, nearly 70 percent have beaten expectations, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Gains in Boeing <BA.N> could provide the Dow <.DJI> an impetus to breach the 20,000, after coming within 90 points of the milestone a day earlier.

Boeing’s stock was up 1.11 percent premarket after the company said it expected to deliver more commercial aircrafts this year than in 2016.

Seagate <STX.O> shares surged 12.8 percent to $42.30 after the hard-disk drive maker forecast current-quarter revenue above estimates, buoyed by strong demand for its cloud-based storage products.

Aluminum producer Alcoa <AA.N> rose 2.03 percent to $38.26 after reporting a better-than-expected first quarter revenue.

AT&T <T.N> and Qualcomm <QCOM.O> are scheduled to report results after market close.

No key economic data is expected on Wednesday. Federal Reserve officials are in a self-imposed blackout period ahead of a policy-setting meeting next week.

(Reporting by Yashaswini Swamynathan in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D’Silva)

S&P 500, Nasdaq hit record highs on bank, tech gains

By Chuck Mikolajczak

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The S&P 500 and Nasdaq touched intraday record highs on Tuesday and the Dow was poised for its best day of the year, lifted by gains in financial and technology stocks.

The advance comes as investors assess quarterly earnings reports, while trying to find more clarity on President Donald Trump’s economic policies.

Trump signed two executive orders on Tuesday to move forward with construction of the controversial Keystone XL and Dakota Access oil pipelines, rolling back key Obama administration environmental actions in favor of expanding energy infrastructure. He also met with chief executives of the Big Three U.S. automakers to push for more cars to be built in the United States.

“He is demonstrating that he is extremely business friendly, and I thought he had a good day today,” said Stephen Massocca, Chief Investment Officer, Wedbush Equity Management LLC in San Francisco.

“The protectionist stuff will spook the market, the rest of it is spot-on.”

Profits of S&P 500 companies are estimated to have risen 6.7 percent in the latest quarter, marking the strongest growth in two years, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Despite stalling in recent weeks, the post-election rally has contributed to somewhat lofty valuations. The S&P 500 is trading at about 17 times forward 12-month earnings, according to Thomson Reuters Datastream, compared with the 10-year median of 14.2.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 133.5 points, or 0.67 percent, to 19,933.35, the S&P 500 gained 16.27 points, or 0.72 percent, to 2,281.47 and the Nasdaq Composite added 46.03 points, or 0.83 percent, to 5,598.98.

GM shares were up 1.5 percent and Ford rose 2.3 percent, while Fiat Chrysler jumped 6.7 percent. The S&P financial sector climbed 1.5 percent. The index had surged more than 16 percent in the wake of the election to the end of 2016 but has struggled in the new year, losing more than 1 percent through Monday.

Materials jumped nearly 3 percent and were on track for their best day since February. The sector was bolstered by a 5 percent rise in DuPont, which reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit.

IBM, up 2.9 percent, and Intel, up 2.6 percent, were among the top boosts to the S&P 500 and helped lift the tech sector by 1.1 percent to put the sector on track for its best day this year.

Yahoo rose 3.3 percent after the company reported better-than-expected quarterly profit and revenue and said the sale of its core internet business to Verizon should be completed in the second quarter.

Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 2.95-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.47-to-1 ratio favored advancers.

The S&P 500 posted 42 new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 107 new highs and 28 new lows.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by James Dalgleish)

Dollar steadies after stumble, Brexit ruling saps sterling

woman walks past electronic board with stock market numbers on it

By Marc Jones

LONDON (Reuters) – The dollar and world stocks tip-toed higher on Tuesday, as signs of a revival of worldwide economic activity helped ease some of the caution triggered in recent days by U.S. President Donald Trump’s focus on protectionism over fiscal stimulus.

Talk of trade wars rumbled in the background but was offset as Japanese manufacturing showed the fastest expansion in almost three years and a 5-1/2 year peak in French business activity provided the latest proof of a nascent euro zone recovery.

European stocks made modest gains as the data helped bolster a 2-1/2 year high in commodity stocks and as merger talk swirling around two of Italy’s big insurers fueled a 1 percent jump in shares in Milan.

There was also the expected confirmation that Britain’s parliament will have to approve the start of the Brexit process, though sterling dropped on news that assent will not be needed from pro-EU Scotland or Northern Ireland.

It was largely fine-tuning however, with both the pound and the euro, as well as the Japanese yen already pushed back by the dollar as its index clawed its way back above the 100 point threshold breach on Monday.

“Most of the PMIs around the world have been quite strong so there is no bad news here, but the protectionism above stimulus story (from Trump) has given the dollar bulls reason for pause,” said Saxo bank’s head of FX strategy John Hardy.

“The dollar rally needs to find some support pretty soon otherwise we are facing a potentially serious correction.”

U.S. futures also pointed to another flat start for Wall Street’s S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial and Nasdaq ahead of U.S. manufacturing data and what should be more activity in Washington from Trump’s new administration.

Sentiment had taken a knock on Monday when U.S. Treasury Secretary nominee Steven Mnuchin told senators that he would work to combat currency manipulation but would not give a clear answer on whether he thought China was manipulating its yuan.

In written answers to a Senate Finance Committee, Mnuchin also reportedly said an excessively strong dollar could be negative in the short term.

The dollar duly skidded as far as 112.52 yen in its biggest fall since July though it was back up at 113.40 yen by 1300 GMT. It had also hopped up to $1.0745 to the euro and almost a full cent to $1.2440 per pound.

SCEPTICISM GROWS

While Trump promised huge cuts in taxes and regulations on Monday, he also formally withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal and talked of border tariffs.

“It’s interesting that markets did not respond positively to a reaffirmation of lower taxes and looser regulation, reinforcing the impression that all the good news is discounted for now,” wrote analysts at ANZ in a note.

“As week one in office gets underway, there is a growing sense of scepticism, not helped by the tone of Friday’s inaugural address and subsequent spat with the media.”

Doubts about exactly how much fiscal stimulus might be forthcoming had helped Treasuries rally. Yields on 10-year notes steadied at 2.42 percent in European trading, having enjoyed the steepest single-day drop since Jan. 5 on Monday.

Two-year yields were around 1.16 percent, narrowing the dollar’s premium over the euro to 183 basis points from a recent top of 207 basis points.

Europe’s moves included the second dip in a row for Italian yields as its highest court began deliberations on the legality of the country’s latest electoral law with the decision likely to influence the timing of elections there.

An unambiguous ruling offering a simple solution to Italy’s electoral tangle could open the way for an early ballot by June. A more nuanced, convoluted reading would almost certainly leave parliament in place until the legislature ends in early 2018.

Spain and France clocked up impressive demand of almost 50 billion euros between them in new 10- and 22-year bond sales.

The upbeat global data boosted industrial metals including copper and iron ore, while gold was near two-month high at $1,212 an ounce.

Oil prices edged up too as signs that OPEC and non-OPEC producers were on track to meet output reduction goals largely overshadowed a strong recovery in U.S. drilling.

U.S. crude futures added 45 cents to $53.19, while Brent crude climbed 42 cents to $55.65 a barrel. [O/R]

(Additional reporting by Wayne Cole in Sydney; Editing by Andrew Heavens)

European stocks fall, investors seek safety after Trump address

People walk through lobby of London Stock Exchange

By Abhinav Ramnarayan

LONDON (Reuters) – European stocks and bond yields edged lower on Monday and the dollar briefly hit a six-week low after U.S. President Donald Trump began his term in office with a protectionist speech that drove a nervous market into safe-haven assets.

Wall Street was set to open slightly lower, tracking stock markets in Europe and parts of Asia, having hit multi-year highs earlier this month on expectations Trump would boost growth and inflation with extraordinary fiscal spending measures.

However, his inaugural address on Friday, signaling an isolationist stance on trade and other issues, led investors to retreat to the safety of higher-rated government bonds.

Trump also made it clear that he plans to hold talks with the leaders of Canada and Mexico to begin renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement.

U.S. stock futures were down 0.2 percent, pointing to a lower open after European stocks touched their lowest levels this year in early trades. By midday, the broad STOXX index had come off the day’s lows but was still down 0.3 percent.

Earlier, Japan’s Nikkei dropped 1.1 percent while shares in Australia fell 0.8 percent after Trump’s administration also declared its intention to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a 12-nation trade pact that Japan and Australia have both signed.

Other Asian shares were more resilient, however, in part due to dollar weakness, and MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.3 percent.

“The focus this morning is on the protectionist rhetoric and the lack of detail on economic stimulus, so it’s a nervous start (to the presidency),” said Investec economist Victoria Clarke.

“The other concern is how the Fed interprets Trump’s stance, the worry being the less he does on fiscal stimulus the more nervous they may get on pushing the rate hikes through.”

The U.S. Federal Reserve, which has indicated it expects to raise its benchmark interest rate three times this year, is due to hold its next meeting on Jan. 31 and Feb. 1.

Rabobank analyst Michael Avery said a more protectionist United States could lead to a U.S. dollar liquidity squeeze, with Mexico and Asia likely the most badly hit.

“We would see outright confusion over what currency to invoice, trade, and borrow in: a 19th century world of competing reserve currencies in different geographic zones, but without the underpinning of gold,” Avery said in a note.

The problem would be exacerbated if China tightens capital controls further, he said.

The U.S. dollar was down 0.4 percent against a basket of six major currencies.

The nervous start on Monday saw safe-haven assets in demand.

The yield on Germany’s 10-year government bond, the benchmark for the region, led most euro zone bonds lower and was down 2 basis points to 0.34 percent.

This followed 10-year U.S. Treasuries yields, which fell to 2.43 percent, after having risen briefly on Friday to 2.513 percent, their highest since Jan. 3.

Spot gold prices, meanwhile, rose on Monday to their highest in two months.

For Reuters Live Markets blog on European and UK stock markets see reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=http://emea1.apps.cp.extranet.thomsonreuters.biz/cms/?pageId=livemarkets

(Additional reporting by Hideyuki Sano in Tokyo; Editing by Mark Heinrich)

Oil price slides on prospect of rising U.S. production

By Ahmad Ghaddar

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices fell on Wednesday on expectations that U.S. producers would boost output, just as OPEC signaled that a global supply-reduction deal will shrink the oil glut this year.

Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, were down 75 cents $54.72 a barrel at 1230 GMT.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were trading down 81 cents at $51.67 per barrel.

U.S. shale production is set to snap a three-month decline in February, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday, as energy firms boost drilling activity with crude prices hovering near 18-month highs.

February production will edge up 40,750 barrels per day (bpd) to 4.748 million bpd, the EIA said. In January, it was expected to drop by 5,900 bpd.

“It’s the eternal question about the current flat price and what it does to U.S. crude oil production,” Petromatrix oil strategist Olivier Jakob said.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, excluding Indonesia, pumped 33.085 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, according to figures OPEC collects from secondary sources, down 221,000 bpd from November, OPEC said in a monthly report on Wednesday.

OPEC cut its forecast of supply in 2017 from non-member countries following pledges by Russia and other non-members to join OPEC in limiting output.

OPEC now expects non-OPEC supply to rise by 120,000 bpd this year, down from growth of 300,000 bpd last month, despite an upwardly revised forecast of U.S. supply.

Under the agreement, OPEC, Russia and other non-OPEC producers have pledged to cut oil output by nearly 1.8 million bpd, initially for six months, to bring supplies back in line with consumption.

The output cuts agreed by OPEC and others are likely to come largely from field and refinery maintenance, BMI Research said in a note. It said oil producers are expected to use lower volumes needed for domestic power generation in a bid to maintain export volumes.

“Sticking to output targets is important but export volumes from the participating countries are a much better indicator of how the cuts will affect the market,” it said.

“Participating members are keen not to sacrifice vital export revenue so are trying to find ways to limit domestic crude usage in order to prioritize filling their contracts to foreign refiners.”

A committee responsible for monitoring compliance with the agreement meets in Vienna on Jan. 21-22.

(Additional reporting by Naveen Thukral in Singapore. Editing by Jane Merriman and David Evans)

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