Prospects for Syrian Peace Talks Bleak

Smoke rises after an airstrike in the rebel held area of old Aleppo

By John Irish and Tom Perry

GENEVA/BEIRUT (Reuters) – Prospects for reviving Syrian peace talks were bleak on Tuesday with the opposition saying the postponement was indefinite with a truce over, and the government ruling out any negotiations about the presidency of Bashar al-Assad.

The collapse of the Geneva talks leaves a diplomatic vacuum that could allow a further escalation of the war that is being fueled by rivalries between foreign powers including oil producers Iran and Saudi Arabia.

As fighting raged and air strikes on rebel-held areas intensified, the opposition urged foreign states to supply them with the means to defend themselves, a thinly veiled reference to the anti-aircraft weapons long sought by insurgents.

The United States, meanwhile, told Russia that Syria was starting to “fray more rapidly”, signaling concern about its possible fragmentation as the most serious peace-making effort in two years appeared to be falling apart.

The mainstream Western-backed opposition announced a pause on Monday, blaming Assad for violating a ceasefire. Damascus blamed rebels for breaking the cessation of hostilities.

Chief Syrian government negotiator Bashar Ja’afari said his team was pushing for an expanded government as a solution to the war, an idea rejected by the armed opposition which has fought for five years to oust Assad whose fortunes on the battlefield have been boosted by military backing from Iran and Russia.

The Geneva talks aim to end a war that has killed more than 250,000 people, created the world’s worst refugee crisis, allowed for the rise of the Islamic State group and drawn in regional and major powers. Russia’s intervention in the conflict swayed the war in Assad’s favor.

The opposition has blamed Damascus for using the talks to press their advantage militarily to regain territory.

Damascus has accused rebel groups of joining attacks by the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front, which like the Islamic State group is not covered by the truce.

With fighting reported across much of northwest Syria on Tuesday, both sides were obdurate.

“Our mandate in Geneva stops at forming a national unity government,” Ja’afari told Reuters. “We have no mandate whatsoever either to address the constitutional issue meaning establishing a new constitution or addressing parliamentary elections or addressing the fate of the presidency.

“It’s not the business of anybody in Geneva. It happens when the Syrian people decide,” he said in an interview.

ASSAD IS “DREAMING”

Ahead of leaving Geneva, Riad Hijab, chief coordinator of the main opposition HNC bloc, said there was no chance of returning to talks while the government broke the truce, blocked humanitarian access and ignored the issue of detainees.

Clearly angry, Hijab dismissed any suggestion that Assad could stay in power, saying he was “dreaming.”

Major powers were paralyzed and needed to reevaluate the truce and the humanitarian situation through the International Syrian Support Group that includes the United States, Russia, European states and key regional powers, Hijab said.

As things stood, Hijab said the HNC could not return to formal talks while people were suffering, although they would leave experts in Geneva to discuss certain issues. The Syrian government side is staying on.

U.S. President Barack Obama said he told Russian President Vladimir Putin in their call on Monday that Syria is starting to fray more rapidly and that the war-torn country cannot move forward if the United States and Russia are not in sync.

De Mistura attempted to convene peace talks in January, but these failed before they had even started in earnest largely due to a worsening situation on the ground. The new effort, which began last month, came after the implementation on Feb. 27 of the partial truce brokered by the Washington and Moscow.

But the opposition is adamant that the Damascus government is not serious about moving toward a U.N.-backed political process they say would bring a transitional governing body with full executive powers without Assad.

A U.N. Security Council resolution in December called for the establishment of “credible, inclusive and non-sectarian governance”, a new constitution, and free and fair elections within 18 months.

De Mistura said both sides were “not yielding a comma” on their political demands, but said that was normal in a negotiation. He would take stock of progress on Friday.

The opposition was categoric the suspension was indefinite.

“There is no date, the date … is the implementation of matters on the ground, and likewise the correction of the path of negotiations. All the while that does not happen, the time period will remain open,” the opposition’s George Sabra said.

The opposition also had “big complaints” about U.S. policy which he said sought to carry on talks “without us obtaining anything real”, he said. He called on international powers to supply Syrians with the means to defend themselves.

FIGHTING RAGES ACROSS NORTHWEST

“Let’s be realistic. The escalation will start,” said Bashar al-Zoubi, a prominent rebel leader. Ahmed Al-Seoud, the head of another rebel group, said he hoped for more military support from Assad’s foreign enemies.

Syrian forces backed by Russian warplanes launched a counter-attack against rebels in the northwestern province of Latakia, a rebel group and a conflict monitor reported, as violence was reported across much of the northwest on Tuesday.

Targets included towns and villages where a partial truce agreement had brought about a lull in fighting.

Air strikes killed at least five people in the town of Kafr Nubl in the insurgent stronghold of Idlib province, and three others in nearby Maarat al-Numan, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring organization reported.

Rockets fired by insurgents killed three children in nearby Kefraya, a Shi’ite town loyal to the government, it said. State media said the dead were members of one family.

Fighting in Latakia focused on areas where insurgent groups had launched an attack on government forces on Monday, and where battles had often erupted despite the cessation of hostilities.

“The regime is trying to storm the area, with the participation of Russian helicopters and Sukhoi (warplanes),” said Fadi Ahmad, spokesman for the First Coastal rebel group in the area. The Observatory said fighting had raged since morning.

Government air strikes and barrel bombing was reported in northern areas of Homs province that are under rebel control. The use of barrel bombs, or oil drums filled with explosives, has been denied by the Syrian government but widely recorded including by a U.N. commission of inquiry on Syria. The Syrian army could not immediately be reached for comment.

(Reporting by Tom Perry in Beirut, John Irish in Geneva, writing by Peter Millership)

On ground in Syria, scant evidence of draw down trumpeted by Kremlin

Russian Navy Landing Ship

By Jack Stubbs and Maria Tsvetkova

MOSCOW (Reuters) – A month since Vladimir Putin announced the withdrawal of most Russian forces from Syria, his military contingent there is as strong as ever, with fewer jets but many more attack helicopters able to provide closer combat support to government troops.

A Reuters analysis of publicly available tracking data shows no letup in supply missions: the Russian military has maintained regular cargo flights to its Hmeimim airbase in western Syria since Putin’s declaration on March 14.

Supply runs have also continued via the “Syrian Express” shipping route, Russian engineering troops have been deployed to the ancient city of Palmyra and further information has surfaced about Russian special forces operating in Syria – suggesting the Kremlin is more deeply embroiled in the conflict than it previously acknowledged.

“There hasn’t been a drawdown in any meaningful way,” said Nick de Larrinaga, Europe Editor of IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly. “Russia’s military presence in Syria is just as powerful now as it was at the end of 2015.”

Announcing a drawdown gave Putin some breathing space from Western political pressure over the operation, and an opportunity to carry out maintenance on heavily-used jets.

But by keeping a strong military force in place, Putin is maintaining his power to influence the situation in Syria by shoring up President Bashar al-Assad, Moscow’s closest ally in the Middle East.

He will also want to secure Russia’s role in efforts to broker a resolution to the conflict – a process the Kremlin has used to reassert itself as a global political power after being ostracized by the West over the Ukraine crisis.

As recently as Thursday, photos and video footage taken by Turkish bloggers for their online project Bosphorus Naval News showed a Russian Navy landing ship – the Saratov – en route to Russia’s Tartous naval facility in the western Syrian province of Latakia loaded with at least ten military trucks.

The Saratov is a regular feature on Russia’s “Syrian Express” shipping route, which Moscow has used to transport increased supplies and equipment to Syria since the military draw down was announced.

The Russian Defence Ministry did not respond to written questions submitted by Reuters

“MORE FORMIDABLE FORCE”

Russian troops and equipment have also been deployed to Syria by air in recent weeks.

An Ilyushin Il-76 cargo plane operated by the Russian Air Force under registration number RA-78830 has flown two supply trips a month to Syria since December. Its last flight to Russia’s Latakia airbase was on April 9-10 according to tracking data on website FlightRadar24.com.

Able to carry up to 145 people or 50 tonnes of equipment, Il-76 planes have been used to transport heavy vehicles including helicopters to Syria, a Russian Air Force colonel told Reuters, bolstering the number of gunships in the country as Russia’s jet force deployment is wound down.

“We removed some planes and added helicopters. We don’t need mass bomb drops during a ceasefire,” the colonel said. “Helicopters fly lower and can observe the territory better.”

Russia now has more than 30 helicopters operating in Syria, including a fleet of around eight Mi-28N Night Hunter and Ka-52 Alligator gunships stationed at its Shayrat airbase southeast of Homs city, according to satellite images posted online by IHS Jane’s analysts.

Separate images show 22 jets and 14 helicopters stationed at the Hmeimim airbase, compared to 29 jets and 7 helicopters seen there in early February, said Justin Bronk, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).

“All that’s really gone is the fixed wing close air support attack jets,” he said. “On the rotary side it’s a substantially more formidable force than it was.”

SPECIAL FORCES

The Ka-52, known for its unusual double set of top-mounted rotor blades and no tail rotor, is the Russian military’s official special forces support helicopter and its appearance in Syria is testament to the growing number of Russian ground troops in direct combat roles, western officials say.

Russia acknowledged having special forces in Syria for the first time shortly after its military drawdown was announced, saying they were conducting high-risk reconnaissance missions and “other special tasks”.

Since the announcement, Western diplomats say Russia’s forces have increasingly targeted Islamic State militants and an offshoot of al Qaeda. Previously Russia focused its strikes on other Assad opponents, including some viewed by the West as moderate.

Swapping jets for helicopters illustrates Russia’s new military role in the Syrian conflict, engaging directly with fighting on the ground instead of dropping bombs from thousands of feet.

“Russia’s attack helicopters are getting much more into the thick of things than their fixed wing aircraft were previously,” said de Larrinaga. “We never really saw Russian strike aircraft operating at low level like this before.”

Both the Ka-52 and Mi-28N, which is broadly equivalent to the U.S. Apache gunship, were used to provide close air cover to the Syrian army when it secured a major victory by retaking Palmyra from Islamic State militants in March.

Bronk said the helicopter deployment was in response to the changing needs of the Syrian army.

“They are no longer bombarding besieged cities so much, trying to dislodge rebels,” he said. “Instead they are trying to assist a more mobile, maneuverable style of engagement.”

“Because that tactical role or focus of Assad’s forces has changed, then the Russian support methodology needs to change along with it.”

(Writing by Jack Stubbs; editing by Peter Graff)

Muslim nations accuse Iran of supporting terrorism

ranian President Hassan Rouhani arrives the OIC Istanbul Summit

By Yesim Dikmen and Melih Aslan

ISTANBUL (Reuters) – Leaders from more than 50 Muslim nations accused Iran on Friday of supporting terrorism and interfering in the internal affairs of regional states including Syria and Yemen.

The leaders, including Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani, have been attending a summit in Istanbul this week of the 57-member Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to discuss a range of issues such as the humanitarian fall-out from Syria’s civil war.

“The Conference deplored Iran’s interference in the internal affairs of the States of the region and other Member States including Bahrain, Yemen, Syria, and Somalia, and its continued support for terrorism,” the OIC said in its final summit communique.

It also stressed the need for “cooperative relations” between Iran and other Muslim countries, including refraining from the use or threat of force.

Both Turkey, which has assumed the three-year rotating presidency of the OIC, and Saudi Arabia are part of the U.S.-led coalition against Islamic State militants in Syria and are also opponents of President Bashar al-Assad, a stance that has put them at odds with Iran, an ally of the Syrian leader.

Shi’ite Iran is also allied with the Houthi movement in Yemen, which has been battling forces loyal to Yemen’s Saudi-backed president in a conflict that has killed more than 6,000 people since March 2015.

The final communique came a day after Iran’s Rouhani urged summit delegates to avoid sending out divisive messages.

“No message which would fuel division in the Islamic community should come out of the conference,” said Rouhani, according to Iranian state television.

(Additional reporting by Humeyra Pamuk and Daren Butler; Writing by David Dolan; Editing by Gareth Jones)

Syria HNC offers to share transition

Al-Muslat, spokesman for the HNC, attends an interview with Reuters in Geneva,

GENEVA (Reuters) – Syria’s main opposition group is willing to share membership of a transitional governing body with current members of the government of President Bashar al-Assad, but not Assad himself, the group’s spokesman told Reuters in Geneva.

“There are many people on the other side who we can really deal with,” Salim al-Muslat, the spokesman for the High Negotiations Committee, said on the second day of a round of U.N.-mediated peace talks in Geneva.

“We will have no veto, as long as they don’t send us criminals, as long as they don’t send us people involved in the killing of Syrians.”

(This version of the story corrects last word to say “Syrians” instead of “criminals”)

(Reporting by Tom Miles; editing by John Stonestreet)

Muslim nations agree to work against Terrorism

Turkish President Erdogan poses with leaders of the IOC member states during the Istanbul Summit

ISTANBUL (Reuters) – Muslim countries have agreed to work together more closely to fight terrorism and other crimes and will establish an Istanbul-based center for greater police cooperation, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Thursday.

Leaders from the Muslim world are attending a summit in Istanbul this week of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to discuss issues facing the grouping’s 57 member states, including the humanitarian fall-out from Syria’s civil war.

“It would be appropriate to create a structure among OIC countries which would strengthen and institutionalize cooperation against terror and other crimes,” Erdogan said in his opening address at the summit.

“With this in mind, our proposal for the establishment of an OIC police cooperation and coordination center based in Istanbul found acceptance.”

Erdogan, whose country is set to take over the three-year rotating presidency of the OIC, gave no details about the new police center or say when it might start work.

Turkey has long pressed for closer regional cooperation in tackling terrorism as its army and security forces battle Kurdish militants that Ankara and its Western allies classify as terrorists.

Turkey is part of the U.S.-led coalition against Islamic State in neighboring Syria and is also a vocal opponent of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a stance that has put it at odds with Assad’s ally, Iran.

On Thursday Erdogan called for greater unity among Muslim countries.

“The more that we as Muslims, as Muslim countries, fall out with each other, the more the innocents who have put their hopes in us will be exposed to strife,” he said.

Also speaking at the summit, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani spoke out against divisions among Muslims. Shi’ite Iran is at loggerheads with Sunni Muslim powers including Saudi Arabia in Yemen as well as in Syria.

“No message which would fuel division in the Islamic community should come out of the conference,” Rouhani told the conference, according to Iranian state television.

(Additional reporting by Parisa Hafezi; Editing by Gareth Jones; Writing by David Dolan)

Iran, France concerned with Syria violence

Residents inspect damages after an airstrike on the rebel held al-Maysar neighborhood in Aleppo

By Tom Perry, John Irish and Bozorgmehr Sharafedin

BEIRUT/PARIS/DUBAI (Reuters) – France and Iran voiced concern over escalating violence in Syria on Tuesday, echoing warnings from the United States and Russia as fighting near the city of Aleppo put more pressure on a fragile truce agreement.

The already widely violated “cessation of hostilities” agreement brokered by Russia and the United States has been strained to breaking point by an upsurge in fighting between Syrian government forces and rebels near Aleppo.

The escalation underlines the already bleak outlook for peace talks set to reconvene this week in Geneva. The United Nations says the talks will resume on Wednesday. The government delegation has said it is ready to join the talks from Friday.

With President Bashar al-Assad buoyed by Russian and Iranian military support, the Damascus government is due to hold parliamentary elections on Wednesday, a vote seen by Assad’s opponents as illegitimate and provocative.

Iran said an increase in ceasefire violations could harm the political process a day after Russia said it had asked the United States to stop a mobilization of militants near Aleppo, Syria’s biggest city until the conflict erupted in 2011.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, speaking after a meeting with U.N. Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura in Tehran, blamed the “increasing activities of armed groups” for the violations.

France, which backs the opposition, also expressed concern, but blamed the other side. “It warns that the impact of the regime and its allies’ offensives around Aleppo and Eastern Ghouta are a threat to the cessation of hostilities,” government spokesman Romain Nadal said. The Eastern Ghouta is an opposition-held area near Damascus.

Syria’s civil war has killed more than 250,000 people, created the world’s worst refugee crisis, allowed for the rise of Islamic State and drawn in regional and international powers. The intervention of Russia swung the war in Assad’s favor.

WASHINGTON “VERY, VERY CONCERNED”

The United States, which also backs rebels fighting Assad, on Monday said it was “very, very concerned” about increased violence and blamed the Syrian government for the vast majority of truce violations.

Both the government and a large number of rebel groups had pledged to respect the cessation of hostilities agreed in February with the aim of allowing a resumption of diplomacy towards ending the five-year-long war. Jihadist groups including the Nusra Front and Islamic State were not part of the deal.

A senior official close to the Syrian government said the truce had effectively collapsed.

“On the ground the truce does not exist,” said the official, who is not Syrian and declined to be named because he was giving a personal assessment. “The level of tension in Syria will increase in the coming months.”

The eruption of fighting on the front lines south of Aleppo marks the most serious challenge yet to the truce.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a British-based organization that tracks the war, said dozens of government fighters had been killed in a big offensive to take the town of Telat al-Eis near the Aleppo-Damascus highway on Tuesday.

A rebel fighting in the area said the assault launched at dawn was backed by Russian air strikes and Iranian militias, adding that the attackers had suffered heavy losses. The Syrian military could not be reached for comment.

Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Lebanon’s Hezbollah have both deployed in the southern Aleppo area in support of the government, while the Nusra Front is also fighting in close proximity to other rebels.

The Syrian prime minister was quoted on Sunday as saying government forces were preparing a major operation in the region with Russian support.

Further south in Homs province, Russia said one of its attack helicopters had crashed in the early hours of Tuesday, killing both pilots. It said the helicopter had not been shot down and the cause of the crash was being investigated.

“PROVOCATIVE” ELECTION

De Mistura, speaking in Tehran, said he and Amir-Abdollahian had agreed on the importance of the cessation continuing, that aid should reach every Syrian and that “a political process leading to a political transition is now crucially urgent”.

De Mistura, whose two predecessors quit, has said he wants the next round of Geneva talks to be “quite concrete” in leading towards a political transition.

Ahead of the first round of talks, Damascus had ruled out any discussion of the presidency, calling it a red line.

A senior Iranian official on Saturday rejected what he described as a U.S. request for Tehran’s help to make Assad leave power, saying he should serve out his term and be allowed to run in a presidential election “as any Syrian”.

Some members of the main Syrian opposition alliance, the High Negotiations Committee (HNC), arrived in Geneva on Tuesday, and U.N. spokesman in Geneva Ahmad Fawzi said the talks were expected to begin on Wednesday.

De Mistura is working according to a U.N. Security Council resolution approved in December that sets out a political process including elections after the establishment of “credible” governance and the approval of a new constitution.

The Syrian government says it is holding Wednesday’s elections in line with the existing timetable that requires a vote every four years. Russia has said the vote does not go against the peace talks and is in line with the constitution.

French President Francois Hollande last month, however, said the idea was provocative and “totally unrealistic”.

(Additional reporting by Tom Miles in Geneva, and Samia Nakhoul and Laila Bassam; Writing by Tom Perry; Editing by Peter Millership and Giles Elgood)

Syria’s Assad shows no willingness to compromise

Syria's President Bashar al-Assad speaks during an interview with Russia's RIA news agency

By Samia Nakhoul

CAIRO (Reuters)- – As the Syria peace talks resume next week, President Bashar al-Assad, backed militarily by Iran and Russia, shows no willingness to compromise, much less step aside to allow a transition Western powers claim is the solution to the conflict.

Threatened by rebel advances last year, Assad is now pumped up with confidence after Russian air strikes reversed the tide and enabled his army to recover lost ground from Sunni insurgents as well as the jihadis of Islamic State.

While Syria experts doubt he can recapture the whole country without an unlikely full-scale ground intervention by Russia and Iran, they also doubt President Vladimir Putin will force him out – unless there is a clear path to stability, which could take years.

Instead, Russia’s dramatic military intervention last September — after five years of inconclusive fighting between Assad and fragmented rebel groups mostly from Syria’s Sunni majority — has tilted the balance of power in his favour and given him the upper hand at the talks in Geneva.

The main target of the Russian air force bombardment was mainstream and Islamist forces that launched an offensive last summer. Only recently have Russia and Syrian forces taken the fight to Islamic State, notably by recapturing Palmyra, the Graeco-Roman city the jihadis overran last year.

The Russian campaign, backed by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and Shi’ite militia such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah, has for now outmatched the rebels, including the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front and units supported by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, and the United States.

REBELS LOSE MOMENTUM

Dealing with those groups rather than Islamic State seemed the main aim of Moscow’s intervention, analysts say.

“The Russian intervention fundamentally reshaped the Syrian conflict,” says Kheder Khaddour from the Carnegie Middle East Center. “The momentum of the rebels does not exist any more.”

Putin, diplomats say, weakened the opposition to coax it into accepting a settlement on Russian and Syrian terms. That does not mean the “transitional authority” sought by the U.S. and its allies, but a government expanded to include elements of the opposition, with Assad at its head for the immediate future.

Russia still wants Assad to lead the transition to the elections, while the opposition and its regional allies, including the United States and Europe, insist he should step down. So far no compromises are in sight.

“We need things to advance in the coming weeks. If the political process is just about putting a few opposition people in nominal cabinet posts then this isn’t going to go very far,” said a European diplomat close to the talks..

“If there isn’t a political transition the civil war will continue and Islamic State will benefit from it,” he said.

Fawaz Gerges, author of ISIS: A History, said: “At this point the Russians have the upper hand in dictating a solution. The Americans are playing on Russia’s playing field.”

UNCERTAINTY

His judgment is underlined by Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, who boasted in a recent interview that “the Americans understand they can do nothing without Russia. They can no longer solve serious problems on their own”.

Yet uncertainty surrounds Moscow’s intentions, after Putin suddenly withdrew part of his forces from Syria last month. That led to speculation among Assad’s enemies that Russia was contemplating whether to ditch Assad – an outcome many Syria watchers find highly improbable.

“The key issue remains when and if the Russians will act to facilitate this transition. It’s unclear, and we get the feeling that the recent talks didn’t change much in the Russian position,” the European diplomat said.

“I don’t think the upcoming round will reach any real decisions on the political process, he added.

Gerges says the partial pull-back sent a message to the Americans that Russia is a rational and credible force that is interested in a diplomatic settlement.

It was also intended as a jolt to Assad, by then so emboldened at the way Russia and Iran had transformed his weak position that he was announcing plans to recapture all of Syria.

“The message to the Assad regime was that Russia doesn’t play by Assad’s playbook, it doesn’t want to get down in Syria’s quagmire (but) wants to cut its losses,” Gerges believes.

But it is far from clear that Assad interprets these messages the same way.

Last month, he dismissed any notion of a transition from the current structure, as agreed by international powers, calling instead for “national unity” solution with some elements of the opposition joining the present government.

“The transition period must be under the current constitution, and we will move on to the new constitution after the Syrian people vote for it,” Assad told Russia’s Sputnik news agency.

ASSAD “WILL NOT GO QUIETLY”

Faisal al-Yafai, a leading commentator from the United Arab Emirates, says Russia “played its cards in Syria very cleverly, but miscalculated in one aspect”.

“They assumed that once the (Assad) regime felt secure, it would be more willing to negotiate. In fact, the opposite has happened”.

“There’s a limit to the pressure that Russia can exert on Assad. Assad absolutely will not go quietly — and certainly not when there is no real alternative to him, even within the regime,” says al-Yafai.

Robert Ford, the former U.S. ambassador to Syria and now a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, agrees that Russia may not be able to compel Assad to go.

The secret police backbone of Assad’s rule remains intact, he says, and “Assad seems confident again, after his much more sober tone last summer. The Russians may have helped him too much, such that Assad can maintain control of key cities and roads for a long time”.

Ford also drew attention to the competition over Syria between Russia and Iran, Assad’s two main allies. Moscow’s emphasis is on its traditional relations with the Syrian military establishment, while Tehran focusses on the militia network it built with Hezbollah to shore up the regime.

“Assad is plenty smart to know how to play one country off against the other. I am not even sure Russia would test its heavy pressure capacity against that of Iran in Damascus. The Russians know they might lose”, Ford said.

Russia’s involvement in Syria has given it greater insight into the structure of the Assad rule, constructed to intermesh the Assad family and allies from its minority Alawite community with the security services and military command.

ASSAD BUOYANT

Khaddour from Carnegie says Russia now realises the circumstances for a transition do not yet exist, because removing Assad might unravel the whole power structure.

“There is a problem within the regime. It is not capable of producing an alternative to itself internally,” says Khaddour, adding the only concession it has made – simply to turn up in Geneva – was the result of Russian pressure.

With limits to Russian and Iranian influence on a newly buoyant Assad, few believe the Geneva talks will bring peace.

“If the Russians felt it was time for a solution they would have reached an understanding with the Americans to give up on Assad without giving up on the Alawites. The circumstances are not ripe yet for a solution,” says Sarkis Naoum, a leading commentator on Syria.

The diplomat added: “The fundamental question is still whether the Russians are serious and want this to happen.”

“Nobody knows what’s in their mind and I’m not sure they even know.”

(Additional reporting by John Irish; Editing by Giles Elgood)

Lebanese Ex-Minister Sentenced for Plotting Attacks

Former Lebanese Information Minister Michel Samaha gestures at his house after being released in Beirut, Lebanon, January 14, 2016.

By Angus McDowall

BEIRUT (Reuters) – A Lebanese military court on Friday increased to nearly 10 years the jail term for a former minister convicted last year of smuggling explosives and planning attacks, in a case that has underscored the country’s sharp political divisions.

Former information minister Michel Samaha, who has close ties to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, was detained in August 2012 and confessed to involvement in a plot for which Damascus’ security chief Ali Mamluk was also indicted.

Syrian officials have denied Damascus was involved, but the allegations exposed rifts in Lebanon, which often break along sectarian lines, over Syria’s long-standing involvement in the country.

Samaha’s initial four-year sentence and later release on bail prompted bitter protests from opponents of Assad, who saw the decisions as unduly lenient and evidence that Damascus and its ally Hezbollah held sway over the justice system.

The case also gained wider regional significance when Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir suggested it was part of the reason Riyadh was withdrawing billions of dollars in aid from Lebanon’s army and security forces.

He said the military court’s granting of bail to Samaha raised questions over the army’s independence from the Shi’ite Hezbollah movement, Lebanon’s main powerbroker and a principle ally of Riyadh’s top regional rival Iran.

On Friday the court set Samaha’s new sentence at 13 years, but in Lebanon a prison year is equivalent to nine months.

“The issuance of the verdict on the terrorist Michel Samaha corrects the former lenient verdict, which we had rejected and declared we would not tolerate,” said former prime minister Saad al-Hariri, a leading critic of Damascus.

Interior Minister Nohad Machnouk, a member of Hariri’s Future Movement, said the new sentence confirmed “the correctness of our trust in the president and members of the court”.

Ashraf Rifi, another Sunni Muslim politician, had resigned his post as justice minister over his granting of bail in January after describing the trial last year as a travesty of justice.

Syria is Lebanon’s largest neighbor and dominated the country from the end of its civil war in 1990 until 2005, when U.S.-led pressure helped force Syrian troops to leave.

Its ally Hezbollah remains Lebanon’s main power broker and has fought alongside government forces in Syria’s civil war.

Hezbollah and its leading members made no immediate comment on Friday’s sentence.

(Reporting By Laila Bassam and Angus McDowall; editing by John Stonestreet)

Islamic State Profiting From Antiquities

Arranged antiquities are pictured in Damascus, Syria

By Louis Charbonneau

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) – Islamic State militants in Syria and Iraq are netting between $150 million and $200 million per year from illicit trade in plundered antiquities, Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations said in a letter released on Wednesday.

“Around 100,000 cultural objects of global importance, including 4,500 archaeological sites, nine of which are included in the World Heritage List of … UNESCO, are under the control of the Islamic State … in Syria and Iraq,” Ambassador Vitaly Churkin wrote in a letter to the U.N. Security Council.

“The profit derived by the Islamists from the illicit trade in antiquities and archaeological treasures is estimated at U.S. $150-200 million per year,” he said.

The smuggling of artifacts, Churkin wrote, is organized by Islamic State’s antiquities division in the group’s equivalent of a ministry for natural resources. Only those who have a permit with a stamp from this division are permitted to excavate, remove and transport antiquities.

Some details of the group’s war spoils department were previously revealed by Reuters, which reviewed some of the documents seized by U.S. Special Operations Forces in a May 2015 raid in Syria.

But many details in Churkin’s letter appeared new.

The envoy from Russia, which has repeatedly accused Turkey of supporting Islamic State by purchasing oil from the group, said plundered antiquities were largely smuggled through Turkish territory.

“The main center for the smuggling of cultural heritage items is the Turkish city of Gaziantep, where the stolen goods are sold at illegal auctions and then through a network of antique shops and at the local market,” Churkin wrote.

Turkish officials were not immediately available for comment on the Russian allegations. Russian-Turkish relations have been strained ever since Turkey shot down a Russian plane near the Syrian border last November.

Churkin said jewelry, coins and other looted items are brought to the Turkish cities of Izmir, Mersin and Antalya, where criminal groups produce fake documents on their origin.

“The antiquities are then offered to collectors from various countries, generally through Internet auction sites such as eBay and specialized online stores,” he said. Churkin named several other Internet auction sites that he said sold antiquities plundered by Islamic State.

EBay did not respond immediately to a request for comment.

“Recently ISIL has been exploiting the potential of social media more and more frequently so as to cut out the middleman and sell artifacts directly to buyers,” he said.

(Additional reporting by Humeyra Pamuk in Istanbul; Editing by Steve Orlofsky)

Turkey illegally returned Syrians

A woman holding a child reacts as Turkish police and gendarmes block migrants on a highway

By Dasha Afanasieva and Tulay Karadeniz

ANKARA (Reuters) – Turkey has illegally returned thousands of Syrians to their war-torn homeland in recent months, highlighting dangers for migrants sent back from Europe under a deal due to take effect next week, Amnesty International said on Friday.

Turkey agreed with the EU this month to take back all migrants and refugees who cross illegally to Greece in exchange for financial aid, faster visa-free travel for Turks and slightly accelerated EU membership talks.

But the legality of the deal hinges on Turkey being a safe country of asylum, which the rights group said in a report was not the case. Amnesty said it was likely that several thousand refugees had been sent back to Syria in the past seven to nine weeks, flouting Turkish, EU and international law.

Turkey’s foreign ministry denied Syrians were being sent back against their will, while a spokesman for the European Commission said it took the allegations seriously and would raise them with Ankara.

Separately, the U.N. refugee agency UNHCR said it had asked for access to Syrians returned to Turkey from Greece “to ensure people can benefit from effective international protection and to prevent risk of refoulement”, referring to unlawful deportations of refugees at risk of persecution.

Ankara said it had maintained an open-door policy for Syrian migrants for five years and strictly abided by the “non-refoulement” principle.

“None of the Syrians that have demanded protection from our country are being sent back to their country by force,” a foreign ministry official told Reuters.

But Amnesty said testimonies it had gathered in Turkey’s southern border provinces suggested authorities had been rounding up and expelling groups of around 100 Syrian men, women and children almost daily since the middle of January.

“In their desperation to seal their borders, EU leaders have wilfully ignored the simplest of facts: Turkey is not a safe country for Syrian refugees and is getting less safe by the day,” said John Dalhuisen, Amnesty International’s director for Europe and Central Asia.

Under the deal, Turkey is supposed to be taking in migrants returned from Greece on April 4, but uncertainty remains over how many will be sent back, how they will be processed, and where they will be housed.

The aim is to close the main route by which a million migrants and refugees crossed the Aegean Sea to Greece in the last year before heading north, mainly to Germany and Sweden.

(Additional reporting by Gabriela Baczynska in Brussels and Stephanie Nebehay in Geneva; Editing by Nick Tattersall and John Stonestreet)