National Weather Service models for Tropical Storm Karen now indicate the storm will make landfall in southwestern Louisiana some time Saturday afternoon.
High wind shear and dry air from the west have been hampering the storm’s ability to strengthen and it appears unlikely the storm will reach hurricane strength by the time it makes landfall. Tropical storm warnings are in place for the Louisiana coast while Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle are under hurricane and tropical storm watches.
The National Hurricane Center says that the chances of Karen reaching hurricane status are 23%, down from 41% odds in Thursday’s afternoon forecast.
Forecasters also say it’s likely that high wind shear will weaken the storm west of the storm’s center when it makes landfall and that rainfall totals will be less than 3 inches. West of the center could see up to 8 inches of rain from the storm.
Models say the highest probability of tropical storm force winds is at Buras, Louisiana.