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U.S. job growth seen accelerating; unemployment rate steady

FILE PHOTO: Leaflets lie on a table at a booth at a military veterans' job fair in Carson, California October 3, 2014. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. employers likely stepped up hiring in June and boosted wages for workers, signs of labor market strength that could keep the Federal Reserve on course for a third interest rate increase this year.

According to a Reuters survey of economists, the Labor Department’s closely watched employment report on Friday will probably show that nonfarm payrolls increased by 179,000 jobs last month after gaining 138,000 in May.

The unemployment rate is forecast steady at a 16-year low of 4.3 percent. It has dropped five-tenths of a percentage point this year and matches the most recent Fed median forecast for 2017.

Economists say labor market buoyancy could also encourage the U.S. central bank to announce plans to start reducing its $4.2 trillion portfolio of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities in September.

“June’s employment report could provide sufficient evidence to Fed officials that they are still positioned to proceed with their monetary policy normalization plans in the second half of the year,” said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo securities in Charlotte, North Carolina.

The Fed raised its benchmark overnight interest rate in June for the second time this year. But with inflation retreating further below the central bank’s 2 percent target in May, economists expect another rate hike only in December.

June’s anticipated employment gains would be close to the 186,000 monthly average for 2016 and reinforce views that the economy regained speed in the second quarter after a sluggish performance at the start of the year.

But the pace of job growth is expected to slow as the labor market hits full employment. There is growing anecdotal evidence of companies struggling to find qualified workers.

As a result, some companies are raising wages in an effort to attract and retain their workforces. Economists expect worker shortages to boost wage growth, which has remained stubbornly sluggish despite the tightening labor market.

EYES ON WAGES

Average hourly earnings are forecast increasing 0.3 percent in June after gaining 0.2 percent in May. That could lift the year-on-year increase in wages to 2.7 percent from 2.5 percent in May.

“The days of month after month of 200,000 jobs being created are likely behind us,” said Ryan Sweet, senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

“We will see trend job growth continue to moderate. That doesn’t necessarily signal that the expansion is running out of juice or that a recession is imminent, it is just a symptom of a full-employment economy.”

The economy needs to create 75,000 to 100,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population.

Republican President Donald Trump, who inherited a strong job market from the Obama administration, has pledged to sharply boost economic growth and further strengthen the labor market by slashing taxes and cutting regulation.

But Republicans have struggled with healthcare legislation and there are also worries that political scandals could derail the Trump administration’s economic agenda.

Job gains were likely broad in June. Manufacturing payrolls likely rebounded after factories shed 1,000 jobs in May. But employment in the automobile sector probably declined further as slowing sales and bloated inventories force manufacturers to cut back on production.

Ford Motor Co has announced plans to slash 1,400 salaried jobs in North America and Asia through voluntary early retirement and other financial incentives. Others, like General Motors are embarking on extended summer assembly plant shutdowns, which will temporarily leave workers unemployed.

Further job gains are likely in construction.

The retail sector is expected to have purged jobs for a fifth straight month as department store operators like J.C. Penney Co Inc, Macy’s Inc and Abercrombie & Fitch struggle against stiff competition from online retailers led by Amazon.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

Fed’s Dudley confident U.S. inflation should rebound with wages

William C. Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York speaks during a panel discussion at The Bank of England in London,

y Jonathan Spicer

PLATTSBURG, NY (Reuters) – U.S. inflation is a bit low but should rebound alongside wages as the labor market continues to improve, an influential Federal Reserve official said on Monday, reinforcing the message that a recent patch of weak data is unlikely to derail plans to keep raising interest rates.

The comments by New York Fed President William Dudley, a close ally of Fed Chair Janet Yellen, were among the first after the U.S. central bank hiked rates last week in the face of a series of soft inflation readings.

“This is actually a pretty good place to be” with unemployment at 4.3 percent and inflation at about 1.5 percent, Dudley told the North Country Chamber of Commerce in Plattsburg, New York.

“We are pretty close to full employment,” he said. “Inflation is a little lower than what we would like, but we think that if the labor market continues to tighten, wages will gradually pick up and with that, inflation will gradually get back to 2 percent.”

Price readings have edged lower over the past few months, raising questions about the Fed’s general plan to boost rates one more time before the year-end, and another three times next year. Last week’s hike was the central bank’s third in six months.

Asked about a so-called flattening of yields in the bond market, which suggest investors are skeptical that this Fed policy-tightening cycle will last much longer, Dudley said pausing policy now could raise the risk of inflation surging and hurting the economy.

He said he did not read the market move as a negative signal for the U.S. economy, but rather one that reflects low overseas inflation and borrowing costs.

“I am very confident” that economic expansion “has quite a long ways to go,” Dudley said, adding he expected wage growth to rise to about 3 percent over the next year or two.

(Editing by Bernadette Baum)

Tech leads Wall Street higher; jobs data falls short

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S.,June 2, 2017.REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

By Chuck Mikolajczak

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. stocks closed at record levels for a second consecutive session on Friday, as gains in technology and industrial stocks more than offset a lukewarm jobs report.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 138,000 in May, well short of the 185,000 expected by economists. The prior two months were revised lower by 66,000 jobs than previously reported.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.2 percent in May, following a similar gain in April, but the unemployment rate fell to a 16-year low of 4.3 percent.

Despite the disappointing data, market participants still largely anticipate the Federal Reserve to raise rates at its June 13-14 meeting, with traders expecting a 90.7-percent chance of a quarter-point hike, according to Thomson Reuters data.

“It’s certainly surprising. It doesn’t really correlate well with virtually all the other data on the labor market that we’re seeing,” said Russell Price, senior economist at Ameriprise Financial Services Inc in Troy, Michigan.

The modest increase, however, could raise concerns about the economy’s health after gross domestic product growth slowed in the first quarter and a string of softening data this week, including reports on housing and auto sales.

The economy needs to create 75,000 to 100,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population. Job gains are slowing as the labor market nears full employment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average <.DJI> rose 62.11 points, or 0.29 percent, to 21,206.29, the S&P 500 <.SPX> gained 9.01 points, or 0.37 percent, to 2,439.07 and the Nasdaq Composite <.IXIC> added 58.97 points, or 0.94 percent, to 6,305.80.

For the week, the S&P rose 0.95 percent, the Dow added 0.59 percent and the Nasdaq gained 1.54 percent.

Industrials <.SPLRCI>, up 0.49 percent, and technology <.SPLRCT>, up 1.04 percent, were the best performing sectors. The tech sector has been the top performer among the major S&P sectors, with a 2017 gain of 21.26 percent.

The tech sector was led by Broadcom <AVGO.O>, which rose more than 8 percent to hit an all-time high of $253.76, after the chipmaker’s quarterly results beat analysts’ expectations.

Shares of financials <.SPSY>, which benefit from higher interest rates, fell as much as 0.9 percent after the jobs data sparked some worry the Fed could become cautious after the June meeting, and closed down 0.37 percent.

Energy <.SPNY> was the worst-performing sector, down 1.18 percent. Brent oil tumbled below $50 a barrel on worries that President Donald Trump’s decision to abandon a climate pact could spark more crude drilling in the United States and worsen a global glut.

Lululemon Athletica <LULU.O> jumped 11.5 percent to $54.29 after the athletic apparel maker’s quarterly profit beat estimates.

Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.34-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.07-to-1 ratio favored advancers.

The S&P 500 posted 28 new 52-week highs and 11 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 82 new highs and 70 new lows.

About 6.37 billion shares changed hands in U.S. exchanges, compared with the 6.65 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.

(Additional reporting by Herb Lash; Editing by Nick Zieminski)

U.S. jobless claims fall; continuing claims at 28-1/2-year low

FILE PHOTO: Job seekers speak with potential employers at a City of Boston Neighborhood Career Fair on May Day in Boston, Massachusetts, U.S., May 1, 2017. REUTERS/Brian Snyder

WASHINGTON – New applications for U.S. jobless benefits unexpectedly fell last week and the number of Americans receiving unemployment aid hit a 28-1/2-year low, pointing to rapidly shrinking labor market slack.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 232,000 for the week ended May 13, the Labor Department said on Thursday. That pushed claims close to levels last seen in 1973.

Data for the prior week was unrevised and claims have now decreased for three consecutive weeks. Economists polled by

Reuters had forecast first-time applications for jobless benefits rising to 240,000.

Claims have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with a healthy labor market, for 115 straight weeks. That is the longest such stretch since 1970, when the labor market was smaller. The labor market is close to full employment, with the

unemployment rate at a 10-year low of 4.4 percent.

A Labor Department official said there were no special factors influencing last week’s data and only claims for Louisiana had been estimated.

The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 2,750 to 240,750 last week, the lowest level since February.

Last week’s claims data covered the survey week for May’s nonfarm payrolls. The four-week average of claims fell 2,000 between the April and May survey periods suggesting further job gains this month. The economy created 211,000 job in April after

adding only 79,000 positions in March.

Labor market strength and tightening could allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next month.

Expectations of a June rate hike have also been supported by data such as retail sales and industrial production, which suggested that economic growth picked up early in the second quarter after rising at an anemic 0.7 percent annualized rate in

the first quarter.

The U.S. central bank increased its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points in March and has forecast two more increases this year.

Thursday’s claims report also showed the number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid dropped 22,000 to 1.90 million in the week ended May 6, the lowest level since November 1988.

The so-called continuing claims have remained below 2 million for five straight week. The four-week moving average of continuing claims declined 20,000 to 1.95 million, the lowest level since January 1974.

((Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao))

U.S. jobless claims fall; continuing claims lowest since 1988

FILE PHOTO: A "Now Hiring" sign hangs on the door to the Urban Outfitters store at Quincy Market in Boston, Massachusetts September 5, 2014. REUTERS/Brian Snyder

WASHINGTON – New applications for U.S. jobless benefits unexpectedly fell last week and the number of Americans on unemployment rolls hit a 28-1/2-year low, pointing to a rapidly tightening labor market that could encourage the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in June.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 236,000 for the week ended May 6, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims for the prior week were unrevised.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast first-time applications for jobless benefits rising to 245,000.

Claims have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with a healthy labor market, for 114 straight weeks. That is the longest such stretch since 1970, when the labor market was smaller. The labor market is close to full employment, with the

unemployment rate at a near 10-year low of 4.4 percent.

Labor market strength, also marked by a sharp rebound in job growth in April, has left financial markets anticipating further monetary policy tightening from the Fed in June.

The U.S. central bank increased its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points in March and has forecast two more rate hikes this year. The economy created 211,000 job in April after adding only 79,000 positions in March.

A Labor Department official said there were no special factors influencing last week’s data and only claims for Louisiana had been estimated.

The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, rose 500 to 243,500 last week.

Thursday’s claims report also showed the number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid tumbled 61,000 to 1.92 million in the week ended April 29, the lowest level since November 1988.

The four-week moving average of the so-called continuing claims fell 27,500 to 1.97 million, the lowest level since February 1974.

((Reporting By Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci))

U.S. private sector adds 177,000 jobs in April: ADP

A job seeker holds a "We're Hiring" card while talking to a representative from Target at a City of Boston Neighborhood Career Fair on May Day in Boston, Massachusetts, U.S., May 1, 2017. REUTERS/Brian Snyder

(Reuters) – U.S. private employers added 177,000 jobs in April, slightly above economists’ expectations, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Wednesday.

Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast the ADP National Employment Report would show a gain of 175,000 jobs, with estimates ranging from 140,000 to 236,000.

Private payroll gains in the month earlier were revised down to 255,000 from an originally reported 263,000 increase.

The report is jointly developed with Moody’s Analytics.

The ADP figures come ahead of the U.S. Labor Department’s more comprehensive non-farm payrolls report on Friday, which includes both public and private-sector employment.

Economists polled by Reuters are looking for U.S. private payroll employment to have grown by 185,000 jobs in April, up from 89,000 the month before. Total non-farm employment is expected to have risen by 185,000.

The unemployment rate is forecast to tick up to 4.6 percent from the 4.5 percent recorded a month earlier.

(Reporting by Richard Leong; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

U.S. weekly jobless claims up; continuing claims hit 17-year low

A job seeker (L) talks with a corporate recruiter (R) as he peruses the man's resume at a Hire Our Heroes job fair targeting unemployed military veterans and sponsored by the Cable Show, a cable television industry trade show in Washington, June 11, 2013. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – New applications for U.S. jobless benefits rose slightly more than expected last week, but the number of Americans on unemployment rolls dropped to a 17-year low, pointing to a tightening labor market.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 244,000 for the week ended April 15, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The increase followed three straight weeks of declines.

Claims have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with a healthy labor market, for 111 straight weeks. That is the longest such stretch since 1970, when the labor market was smaller. The labor market is close to full employment, with the unemployment rate at a near 10-year low of 4.5 percent.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast first-time applications for jobless benefits rising to 242,000 last week.

The rise in applications likely is linked to volatility around this time of the year due to the different timings of spring and Easter holidays, which often throws off the model the government uses to smooth the data of seasonal fluctuations.

The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 4,250 to 243,000 last week.

The claims data covered the survey week for April nonfarm payrolls. Claims declined 17,000 between the March and April survey periods suggesting that job growth likely picked up this month. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 98,000 jobs in March, the fewest since May 2016.

An acceleration in employment growth would confirm that March’s moderation was weather-driven and underscore the economy’s strong fundamentals despite indications that growth slowed to below a 1.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter.

Thursday’s claims report also showed the number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid decreased 49,000 to 1.98 million in the week ended April 8. That was the lowest reading since April 2000.

The four-week moving average of the so-called continuing claims fell 2,000 to 2.02 million, the lowest reading since June 2000.

U.S. job growth slows sharply, unemployment rate falls to 4.5 percent

A fast food restaurant advertises for workers on its front window in Encinitas, California, U.S., September 13, 2016. REUTERS/Mike Blake/File Photo

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON, (Reuters) – U.S. employers added the fewest number of workers in 10 months in March, but a drop in the unemployment rate to a near 10-year low of 4.5 percent pointed to a labor market that continues to tighten.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 98,000 jobs last month as the retail sector shed employment for a second straight month, the Labor Department said on Friday, the fewest since last May.

The economy enjoyed job gains in excess of 200,000 in January and February as unusually warm temperatures pulled forward hiring in weather-sensitive sectors like construction, leisure and hospitality. In March, temperatures dropped and a storm lashed the Northeast.

The unemployment rate fell two-tenths of a percentage point to 4.5 percent, the lowest level since May 2007.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls increasing 180,000 last month and the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.7 percent.

The economy needs to create 75,000 to 100,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population. The labor market is expected to hit full employment this year, which could

drive faster wage growth.

The weak payrolls gain could raise concerns about the economy’s health especially given signs that gross domestic product slowed to around a 1.0 percent annualized growth pace in the first quarter after rising at a 2.1 percent rate in the fourth quarter.

Average hourly earnings increased 5 cents or 0.2 percent in March, which lowered the year-on-year increase to 2.7 percent.

Given rising inflation, the moderate job gains and gradual wage increases could still keep the Federal Reserve on course to raise interest rates again in June.

The U.S. central bank lifted its overnight interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point in March and has forecast two more hikes this year. The Fed has said it would look at how to reduce its portfolio of bond holdings later this year.

The labor force participation rate, or the share of working-age Americans who are employed or at least looking for a job, held at an 11-month high of 63 percent in March.

Economists attribute some of the improvement in the participation rate to President Donald Trump’s electoral victory last November, which might have caused some unemployed Americans to believe their job prospects would improve. Trump has pledged to pursue pro-growth policies such as tax cuts and deregulation.

Construction jobs increased 6,000 after robust gains in January and February. Manufacturing employment gained 11,000 jobs as rising oil prices fuel demand for machinery.

Retail payrolls fell 29,700, declining for a second straight month. Retailers including J.C. Penney Co Inc and Macy’s Inc have announced thousands of layoffs as they shift toward online sales and scale back on brick-and-mortar operations.

Government payrolls increased 9,000 despite a freeze on the hiring of civilian workers.

((Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci))

Caterpillar shuts plant in Aurora, Illinois, that employs 800

By Gayathree Ganesan and Akankshita Mukhopadhyay

(Reuters) – Caterpillar Inc <CAT.N> said on Friday it will shut its Aurora, Illinois, plant, costing about 800 employees their jobs as the world’s largest construction and mining equipment maker shifts production to other U.S. facilities.

Caterpillar was among companies that met with President Donald Trump in February to talk about job creation, at a time when about 2,300 U.S. workers at five major manufacturing companies stand to lose their jobs within the next two years as a result of offshoring.

The company said it will transition its large wheel loaders and compactors to its plant in Decatur, Illinois, and medium wheel loaders to North Little Rock, Arkansas.

“Out of about 800 production positions, about 500 positions would likely be added to Decatur and about 150 positions would be added in North Little Rock,” Caterpillar spokeswoman Lisa Miller told Reuters.

The company has already slashed its workforce by more than 16,000 to cope with a slumping economy and had said it would take another $500 million in restructuring costs in 2017.

Caterpillar said, in January, that it was considering closing two major production facilities, including the one in Aurora, Illinois, where it makes large-wheel loaders and compactors.

The plant closure is expected to be completed by the end of 2018, Caterpillar said in a statement.

The company in January forecast 2017 profit sharply below analysts’ estimates, hurt by sluggish demand in the construction and energy industries.

Caterpillar had about 95,400 full-time employees of whom 54,500 persons were located outside the United States as of Dec. 31, according to a regulatory filing.

(Reporting by Gayathree Ganesan and Akankshita Mukhopadhyay in Bengaluru; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)

U.S. new home sales hit seven-month high; jobless claims rise

A job seeker fills out an application at the King Soopers grocery store table at a job fair at the Denver Workforce Center in Denver, Colorado, U.S. February 15, 2017. REUTERS/Rick Wilking

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – New U.S. single-family home sales jumped to a seven-month high in February, suggesting the housing market recovery continued to gain momentum despite the challenges of high prices and tight inventories.

Other data on Thursday showed an unexpected increase in the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits last week. Still, the labor market continues to tighten, which together with the strength in housing, should underpin economic growth.

The Commerce Department said new home sales increased 6.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 592,000 units last month, the highest level since July 2016. Sales have now recouped the sharp drop suffered in December.

Economists had forecast new home sales, which account for about 9.7 percent of the overall market, rising 0.7 percent to a rate of 565,000 units in February. Sales were up 12.8 percent compared to the same month last year, showing the housing market’s resilience.

Last month’s sales were likely partially buoyed by unseasonably warm weather. Although mortgage rates have risen and may go higher, most economists see a limited impact on housing because a tightening labor market is improving employment opportunities for young adults.

In a separate report, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 258,000 for the week ended March 18.

Claims have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with a healthy labor market for 80 straight weeks. That is the longest stretch since 1970 when the labor market was smaller. The job market is currently near full employment.

The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, rose only 1,000 to 240,000 last week.

U.S. stocks were mostly flat as investors focused on whether the House of Representatives would pass a Republican-sponsored bill to begin dismantling Obamacare, which is seen as the first significant policy test for President Donald Trump.

Prices of U.S. Treasuries were trading lower while the dollar <.DXY> was stronger against a basket of currencies.

LABOR MARKET FIRMING

The claims data covered the period during which the government surveyed employers for March’s nonfarm payrolls report. The four-week average of claims fell 7,750 between the February and March survey weeks, suggesting another month of strong job gains.

Job growth has averaged 209,000 per month over the past three months and the unemployment rate is at 4.7 percent, close to the nine-year low of 4.6 percent hit last November. Tightening labor market conditions and rising inflation enabled the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates last week.

The market for new houses is benefiting from a shortage of properties for sale. A report on Wednesday showed a 3.7 percent drop in sales of existing homes in February amid tight inventories and rising house prices. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is currently around 4.30 percent.

Last month, new single-family homes sales surged 30.9 percent to their highest level since November 2007 in the Midwest and increased 3.6 percent in the South. They jumped 7.5 percent in the West but slumped 21.4 percent in the Northeast.

The inventory of new homes on the market increased 1.5 percent to 266,000 units last month, still less than half of what it was at its peak during the housing boom in 2006.

At February’s sales pace it would take 5.4 months to clear the supply of houses on the market, down from 5.6 months in January.

A six-month supply is viewed as a healthy balance between supply and demand. The median price for a new home fell 4.9 percent to $296,200 in February from a year ago.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao)

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