Federal meteorologists say the current El Nino is already the second strongest ever recorded for this time of year.
The officials with the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) say it could be one of the “most potent weather changers” in the last 65 years.
“There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 85% chance it will last into early spring 2016,” the NOAA said in a statement.
However, one NOAA official is warning that it might not bring the rain needed to end the drought in California and other western states.
“A big El Nino guarantees nothing,” said Mike Halper, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “At this point there’s no cause for rejoicing that El Nino is here to save the day.”
El Nino, created when the water in the Pacific Ocean is warmer than normal, usually brings large amounts of winter rain to California and snow to the Rocky Mountain range.
California’s state climatologist, Michael Anderson, told the New York Times that California would need one and half times the normal amount of rainfall to get out of their drought conditions and he found that unlikely to take place.
“The one important element is that El Niño events are associated with large variability of outcome,” he said. And while people tend to remember years with powerful El Niño effects, he said, “People don’t associate as strongly the years when an El Niño event didn’t lead to a big outcome.”