Tag Archives: El Nino

White Christmas? Try A Hot One Instead

If you’re dreaming of a White Christmas, you might get a hot one instead.

Temperatures are expected to be warmer than usual across most of the United States this Christmas, according to forecast maps released this week by the National Weather Service.

Meteorologists are all but guaranteeing it’ll be hotter than usual in the eastern United States, placing the chance that temperatures will be above their historical averages above 90 percent.

The probability of above-average temperatures decreases to about 33 percent the further you travel west, but even states in the Great Plains are expected to see a hotter Christmas than usual.

The only states expected to see cooler-than-usual Christmases are Alaska, Oregon, California, Nevada, Idaho, Montana, Utah and Arizona, as well as parts of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico. Every other state is expected to see average or above-average temperatures.

That’s in line with what the United States has seen for much of December.

According to the National Climate Data Center, more than 2,300 daily high temperature records have been tied or broken through the first 16 days of December. If these new forecasts pan out, that means there’s a chance this Christmas could be the hottest one many people have ever seen.

The forecasts come at a time when a strong El Niño is present in the Pacific Ocean.

Weather experts have noted that this year’s El Niño is on track to be one of the three strongest in the past 65 years. The phenomenon occurs when part of the ocean is abnormally warm, setting off a ripple effect that brings atypical and sometimes extreme weather to all corners of the world.

Strong El Nino’s Impacts Expected to Stretch into 2016

This year’s El Niño remains on track to be one of the three strongest in the past 65 years, according to an update from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

El Niño is a weather phenomenon that occurs when part of the Pacific Ocean is warmer than usual. It sets off a far-reaching ripple effect that brings atypical weather throughout the world.

El Niño is already being blamed for Ethiopia’s worst drought in 50 years, for amplifying seasonal rains that brought devastating floods to India and for multiple other cases of extreme weather.

The latest update, published Thursday, indicates that El Niño “has matured,” though its effects are expected to last throughout the winter before ultimately weakening in the summer of 2016.

That backs earlier findings from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, which reported Tuesday that although water temperatures were still near record values, the weather pattern had shown some signs of easing. But the bureau also forecast El Niño’s impacts would be felt well into 2016.

Generally, NOAA meteorologists expect the South should receive more precipitation than usual, while the North should receive a less-than-normal amount of precipitation. It’s also generally expected to be hotter in the West and North while colder in the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast.

That’s not all-inclusive, though.

A barrage of rainstorms killed two people in Oregon and led the governor of Washington to declare a state of emergency this week. Speaking to the Los Angeles Times, a climate scientist at Stanford University, Daniel Swain, said that the rainfall in that region was off to a record start.

“Of all the years in which there was a strong El Niño present in the tropical Pacific Ocean, this is the wettest start to any of those years that we’ve observed in the Pacific Northwest,” Swain told the newspaper.

The most potent El Niño on record occurred in 1997-98, and CNBC reported the weather pattern had a global economic impact of up to $45 billion that year. Beyond bringing unusual weather, strong El Niños have been known to impact agriculture, fish catches and public health.

The next three-month seasonal outlook for this year’s El Niño is due to be published on Dec. 17.

El Niño may cause global famine, floods and sickness

Experts warn that one of the strongest El Niño patterns in the past 70 years could significantly impact the world’s economy, food supply and weather.

The ongoing phenomenon is expected to continue well into 2016, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal, and its impacts go far beyond the forecast.

El Niño occurs when warm waters in the Pacific Ocean move east, which sets off a ripple effect. The warmer waters create conditions ripe for large storms, according to a Los Angeles Times report, and bring unseasonable weather.

The United Nations World Meteorological Organization said last week that this El Niño is already the strongest in the past 15 years and it is expected to continue to strengthen. It is on track to be one of the three strongest instances of the phenomenon in the past 65 years, according to the organization.

“Our planet has altered dramatically because of climate change, the general trend towards a warmer global ocean, the loss of Arctic sea ice and of over a million square kilometers of summer snow cover in the northern hemisphere,” the organization’s secretary general, Michael Jarraud, said at a news conference last week. “So this naturally occurring El Niño event and human induced climate change may interact and modify each other in ways which we have never before experienced.”

The cyclical weather pattern is known for creating intense droughts in some parts of the world and heavy rains in others. Droughts and floods are currently occurring in the tropics and subtropics, the United Nations World Meteorological Organization said at the news conference in Switzerland.

But the organization noted that the world is more prepared to deal with the phenomenon, as the countries expected to be affected the most are already planning for its impacts on their agriculture, health and economies.

Still, CNBC noted that the weather pattern is expected to impact fish catches (and poultry supplies, which depend on such catches) and natural gas prices.

CNBC reported that the 1997-98 El Niño had an economic impact of up to $45 billion. It’s expected to increase this time as global economies have grown.

The United Nations Children’s Fund, or UNICEF, is expecting that disease, hunger and water shortages could impact up to 11 million children in parts of Africa. Another 2.3 million Central Americans are expected to need food aid because of droughts, according to the United Nations World Food Program.

And this El Niño has been linked to Hurricane Patricia in Mexico, fears of food shortages in Southern Africa and wildfires that have plagued Indonesia.

The Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations warned earlier this month that El Niño-linked rains in parts of Africa and Yemen could also trigger a surge in locust breeding, which would further impact crop harvests.

 

Strongest El Niño in 18 Years

The National Weather Service’s Climate prediction Center has announced that  El Niño is already is strong and mature and is forecasted to gain strength.  This El Niño is expected to be among the three strongest on record since 1950.

For drought ravaged California, that is very good news.  This strong  El Niño in the Pacific Ocean is becoming even more powerful, setting the stage for an unusually wet winter in California that could bring heavy rains by January,

El Niño is an anomalous, yet periodic, warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. For reasons still not well understood, every two to seven years, this patch of ocean warms for six to 18 months according to Weather.com.  

Generally, El Niño doesn’t peak in California until January, February and March, Bill Patzert, climatologist for NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge said. That’s when Californians should expect “mudslides, heavy rainfall, one storm after another like a conveyor belt.”

Forecasters predict warmer temperatures in the North over the winter due to El Niño with more precipitation of snow and ice as well as possible tornadoes in the South and Midwest.   

El Nino to Bring Blessing but Possible Disaster for the Pacific

The El Nino weather pattern is taking shape and according to scientists there is no way this El Nino is going to fail from giving rain to some areas in California and elsewhere that are desperate for rain.  

“There’s no longer a possibility that El Niño wimps out at this point. It’s too big to fail,” said Bill Patzert, climatologist for NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge, Los Angeles Times reported. “And the winter over North America is definitely not going to be normal.”

Rainfall opportunities this week across the Southwest may be the beginning of more substantial drought relief heading into the winter as an El Niño-fueled weather pattern takes shape in the region.

While most are calling this unusual and very strong El Nino an answered prayer there are countries who are suffering already with lack of food and crops dying off.  Papua New Guinea’s drought has already claimed two dozen lives, and the looming El Niño weather pattern could be as severe as in 1997-98, when over 23,000 people died.  

Forecasters say that this El Nino could leave 4 million people in the Pacific without food or drinking water.

“El Niño has the potential to trigger a regional humanitarian emergency and we estimate as many as 4.1 million people are at risk from water shortages, food insecurity and disease across the Pacific,” Sune Gudnitz, head of the Pacific region office of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said.

New Kind of Troubles for Drought Ravaged California

California is sinking because of the four year drought that has farmers digging deeper and deep down in order to find groundwater for their crops, resulting in a higher risk of flooding,

Nearly half of America’s fruits, vegetables and nuts are produced in California. As farmers dig deeper down to find water, the land gradually starts to cave in, an effect scientists refer to as subsidence. Some parts of California are settling lower at a rate of two inches a month

According to Michelle Sneed of the United States Geological Survey, the area being permanently affected by subsidence is enormous, stretching about 1,200 square miles, roughly the size of the state of Rhode Island.Because of this sinking  problem, when rains eventually do come the flooding will destroy the crops while also washing away more of the land.

Sinking land is not the only problem faced by California farmers.

Anger is building in central California at state and federal agencies, who are being blocked by environmentalists from pumping water from rivers onto their arid lands, farmers blame both regulations and the agencies and activists who go to court to enforce them.

“These are communities who rely almost solely upon agricultural production or agri-business activities,” Gayle Holman, spokeswoman for the nation’s largest agricultural water supplier, the Westlands Water District, told FoxNews.com. “If we continue down this path, we will most likely see our food production turn to foreign soil. We could lose the economic engine that agriculture brings to our nation.”

California continues to pray for rain and in the hopes that the forecasted El Nino this winter will offer relief, although many are concerned that too much rain could be just as much of a disaster as this historic drought.  

Current El Nino Already Second Strongest Ever Recorded for August

Federal meteorologists say the current El Nino is already the second strongest ever recorded for this time of year.

The officials with the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) say it could be one of the “most potent weather changers” in the last 65 years.

“There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 85% chance it will last into early spring 2016,” the NOAA said in a statement.

However, one NOAA official is warning that it might not bring the rain needed to end the drought in California and other western states.

“A big El Nino guarantees nothing,” said Mike Halper, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “At this point there’s no cause for rejoicing that El Nino is here to save the day.”

El Nino, created when the water in the Pacific Ocean is warmer than normal, usually brings large amounts of winter rain to California and snow to the Rocky Mountain range.

California’s state climatologist, Michael Anderson, told the New York Times that California would need one and half times the normal amount of rainfall to get out of their drought conditions and he found that unlikely to take place.

“The one important element is that El Niño events are associated with large variability of outcome,” he said. And while people tend to remember years with powerful El Niño effects, he said, “People don’t associate as strongly the years when an El Niño event didn’t lead to a big outcome.”

El Nino Could Be Strongest In 50 Years

Meteorologists say that El Nino could be one of the strongest in the last half century and could bring significant amounts of rainfall to California.

The forecasters say the storms might not break the drought that has gripped the Golden State.

“Current rain deficits are way too large,” stated AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bernie Rayno to Fox News. “Even if California receives the rain that fell in 1997-98, it will not come close to ending the long-term drought.”

California currently has 71 percent of the state in “extreme to exceptional drought” according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

The forecasters at AccuWeather say that the heavy rains could be problems for California.

“A strong El Niño could be good news for the extreme drought in California,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said. “Unfortunately, a sudden turn to a stormy winter could also result in dangerous mudslides and flash flooding for the state.”

However, it’s not just California officials and forecasters that are concerned about El Nino.  Texas officials say the change to El Nino could bring significant flooding to the Lone Star State.

“The latest global model shows that in August, we’re dry in the lower Mississippi Valley and the Southeast, but wet in the Four Corners with the monsoon kicking,” Paul Pastelok, chief long-range forecaster for AccuWeather said to the Dallas Morning News. “Then you look at September, and the upper high breaks down. The Four Corners region is still wet, but some of that moisture starts to leak out. And when we get to October, the model has northern Texas with moderately above-normal rainfall.”

“After that, we’ll see a bull’s-eye for precipitation just east of Dallas into Louisiana.”

Freak Rainstorm Washes Away California Highway Bridge

The California Highway Patrol (CHP) confirmed that heavy rains in a remote desert area of California has washed away an elevated part of Interstate 10 including a highway.

The CHP told the Los Angeles Times that 30 feet of the eastbound highway “is washed away and bridge is gone.”

The highway, the most direct route between Los Angeles and Phoenix, averages more than 20,000 cars a day.  Now the vehicles will have to travel hundreds of miles out of the way Interstate 8 or Interstate 40.

Forecasters say the storm was a foreshadowing of what could be striking California later this year with a strong El Nino season.  Tropical Storm Dolores, which roared far off the Mexican and California coasts, allowed for muggy and rainy weather to reach an area decimated by crippling drought.

“Even though Dolores is a pretty good wake-up call for us, we should start preparing for late August or early September,” Stuart Seto, an National Weather Service specialist, said to the Los Angeles Times.

The storms that blew through Southern California brought flash flooding in San Bernardino and Riverside counties.  The storms brought dangerous lightning, hail and high surf to the region.

The storm was so rare for this time of the year that the Anaheim Angels baseball team had a game against the Boston Red Sox rained out…the first rainout for the team in 20 years and 1,609 consecutive home games.

Major Hurricane Drought Reaches Record 117 Months

The continental United States has not been hit with a major hurricane in more than 117 months, a record according to the Hurricane Research Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

NOAA’s tracking of storms dates back to 1851.

A “major” hurricane is defined as a storm of Category 3 or higher.  The last major hurricane was Hurricane Wilma in 2005 which reached Category 5.

The scale does not mean smaller storms could not cause damage, but that major storms are most likely to cause catastrophic damage and significant loss of life.  The most recent storm to cause damage while not being considered a “major” hurricane was Hurricane Sandy, a category 1 storm that was downgraded by the time it made landfall in the northeastern United States.

The streak is not expected to end this Atlantic hurricane season as “El Nino” is especially hot and among the strongest in the last 50 years.  That warm current of air mixed with colder than normal Atlantic Ocean water decreases the possibility of major storms.

“Even if El Niño went away tomorrow, which it won’t do, we would still forecast a below normal season because the Atlantic is so cold,” Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University told the Miami Herald. “When you get that combination, it’s really lethal for storms.”

Category 4 Hurricane Dolores, currently raging in the Pacific Ocean, is so far off the coastline that forecasters do not believe it will make landfall in Mexico or the United States.