The Jim Bakker Show

After fires, Southern California faces risk of mudslides

By Ben Gruber and Alex Dobuzinskis

CARPINTERIA, Calif./LOS ANGELES (Reuters) – Firefighters in Southern California are slowly gaining control of one of the largest wildfires in state history, but residents may not enjoy much relief as experts said the flames are laying the groundwork for the next disaster – mudslides.

The intense fire is burning away vegetation that holds the soil in place and baking a waxy layer into the earth that prevents the water from sinking more than a few inches into the ground, experts said.

With one heavy rain, the soil above this waterproof layer can become saturated, start to slide in hilly areas and transform into something catastrophic.

“Pretty much anywhere there’s a fire on a steep slope, there’s cause for concern,” Jason Kean, research hydrologist for the U.S. Geological Survey, said in a telephone interview.

And the Thomas Fire, which has burned 234,000 acres and destroyed nearly 700 homes in Ventura and Santa Barbara counties, is definitely in landslide country.

“If we get hard rain, there are going to be terrible landslides in the burn areas,” Carla D’Antonio, chairman of University of California, Santa Barbara’s environmental studies program, said in an email.

“It doesn’t take a lot of rain to get the soil and rock moving, so to have burned soil on top of this and no significant plant cover creates huge potential for landslides,” she added.

Among the cities at risk is Santa Barbara, with 92,000 people, as well as the smaller communities of Carpinteria, Ojai and Summerland.

“It’s terrifying,” Jamey Geston, 19, of Carpinteria, said of possible mudslides. “I am just taking it one natural disaster at a time at this point and try to get through it.”

Once the fire is out, more work will begin as officials will likely need to rush to build retention basins and other structures to prevent debris flows before the rainy season begins, said Professor Nicholas Pinter of University of California, Davis’ Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences.

“This is exactly the thing we worry about in the winter following an event like the Thomas Fire,” he said by telephone.

Another large concern is the potential damage to water quality, Santa Barbara Mayor Helene Schneider said in a telephone interview.

Heavy rainfall could bring lots of silt to waterways like Lake Cachuma, where barriers are already being erected, as well as unwanted matter, she said. In 2007, after the massive Zaca Fire, Santa Barbara spent more than $1 million on extra cleaning and filtration systems.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency and the state could defray some costs with grants, but the best outcome would be “a nice, calm, intermittent rain,” Schneider said.

“We don’t see any rain in the immediate forecast, which is a curse and a blessing,” she said. “We could use the water to fight the fire, but we don’t want some kind of big downpour that would cause significant mudslides so soon after the area’s been burnt to nothing.”

(Reporting by Ben Gruber and Alex Dobuzinskis, Writing by Ben Klayman; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)

Firefighters look to gain on California wildfire as winds persist

By Ben Gruber

VENTURA, Calif. (Reuters) – Firefighters on Tuesday hoped to take further control of a massive California wildfire, the fifth largest in the state’s history, as relentless wind gusts and bone-dry weather were expected to persist.

The blaze, known as the Thomas Fire, which has burned 231,700 acres in Ventura and Santa Barbara counties about 100 miles northwest of downtown Los Angeles, grew but at a slower pace, the Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (Cal Fire) said.

Strong wind gusts of up to 40 miles per hour (65 km per hour) and extremely low humidity expected through Thursday will pose a challenge to firefighters, the National Weather Service said. (Graphics on ‘Southern California wildfires’ – http://tmsnrt.rs/2jCVLeu)

“That combination of winds and very low relative humidity leads to critical fire conditions and can allow for a potential of significant fire growth and fire behavior,” National Weather Service incident meteorologist Rich Thompson said late Monday at a community meeting about the fire.

About 7,000 firefighters were battling the Thomas Fire, which has destroyed nearly 800 structures including more than 680 homes, Cal Fire said. By Monday night the blaze was at least 20 percent contained.

Dry vegetation that has not burned in 50 years has acted as fuel for the fire in the mountains southeast of Santa Barbara and northwest of Ventura counties, spokesman Ian McDonald said.

“Because the slopes are so steep and the terrain is so rocky, it is actually quite dangerous,” he said. “We are not going to put firefighters in harm’s way halfway up a steep rocky slope. We are going to wait for the fire to come to us and extinguish it where it is safe.”

Public schools in Santa Barbara and school districts nearby have canceled classes this week and will not reopen until the annual winter break is completed in January, said Santa Barbara Mayor Helene Schneider.

Some of the other fires burning over the past week in San Diego and Los Angeles counties have been largely brought under control by the thousands of firefighters on the ground.

The Creek and Rye fires in Los Angeles County were both at least 90 percent contained, officials said, while the Skirball Fire in the exclusive Bel Air neighborhood of Los Angeles was 85 percent contained.

North of San Diego, the 4,100-acre (1,660 hectare) Lilac Fire was 90 percent contained on Monday after destroying 151 structures.

(Additonal reporting by Brendan O’Brien in Milwaukee; Editing by Jeffrey Benkoe)

New York police responding to explosion in Manhattan

NEW YORK (Reuters) – New York emergency authorities were responding to reports of an explosion at New York’s Port Authority, one of the city’s busiest commuter hubs, during Monday morning’s rush hour.

Local news channel WABC cited police sources as saying a possible pipe bomb detonated in a passageway below ground at Port Authority.

Media reported several people were injured, and WPIX television reported, citing sources, that a man with a “possible second device” has been detained in the subway tunnel.

The New York Police Department said in its official Twitter feed that there was an explosion of unknown origin and that some subway train lines were being evacuated.

(Reporting By Nick Zieminski in New York; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

Firefighters race to contain California wildfires as winds set to strengthen

VENTURA, Calif. (Reuters) – Firefighters in Southern California were under pressure on Saturday to contain six raging wildfires, which have destroyed hundreds of buildings and forced tens of thousands of people to flee, before fierce winds are expected to strengthen again.

Forecasters predict wind gusts to increase in intensity by Saturday night, challenging the 8,700 firefighters who have been battling the fast-moving blazes for five days from the San Diego area up the Pacific Coast to Santa Barbara County. The fires killed at least one person, destroyed 500 structures, hurt six people and injured four firefighters.

The strengthening winds “potentially put the fires that are currently burning at risk of spreading,” said Lynne Tolmachoff, spokeswoman for California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. “Firefighters have been taking advantage of the past 24 hours to try to get containment lines and strengthen them so that does not happen.”

At the peak, about 212,000 people were forced to flee their homes. Evacuation orders were lifted in some areas, welcome news for many in shelters waiting to see if their homes survived.

California governor Jerry Brown on Saturday will meet with residents affected by the fires and tour the wildfire damage in Ventura County northwest of Los Angeles, where the largest of the blazes, the Thomas Fire has charred 143,000 acres (57,870 hectares) and destroyed 476 structures.

“We’re keeping our fellow neighbors and Californians in our hearts and minds. We’re going to recover,” he said on Twitter on Friday.

A 70-year-old woman died in a car crash on Wednesday after smoke inhalation and burns along an evacuation route in Santa Paula, the Ventura County Star newspaper reported, citing medical examiner Christopher Young.

More than 3,800 firefighters from as far away as Portland, Oregon, and Nevada, battled against the Thomas Fire which was 10 percent contained on Friday, up from 5 percent on Thursday.

SMOKE VISIBLE FROM SPACE

A huge plume of smoke flared from the fire in the Ventura County mountains on Friday and was visible on satellite images, the National Weather Service said. Astronauts have captured images showing the wildfires’ smoke visible from space, and the National Weather Service said visibility was being affected in the San Francisco area.

North of San Diego, the Lilac Fire swelled from 10 acres to 4,100 acres (1,659 hectares) in a few hours on Thursday, prompting Brown to declare a state of emergency for San Diego County. The fire destroyed 105 structures.

Fallbrook, known for its avocado orchards, burned, and homes were destroyed in its Rancho Monserate Country Club retirement community. Blazes approached the Camp Pendleton marine base.

A 500-stall stable for thoroughbred race horses at San Luis Rey Downs training site burned late on Thursday, the Los Angeles Times reported.

An estimated 25 to 30 horses died, in addition to 29 horses killed in Los Angeles earlier in the week. A trainer suffered second- and third-degree burns over half her body trying to rescue horses, the newspaper said. She was airlifted to a San Diego hospital and placed in a medically induced coma.

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club, a racetrack in a beachside community north of San Diego, said it was providing refuge for more than 900 animals, mostly horses as well as some goats and pigs. A horse hospital was being opened on Friday.

Wildfires in the Los Angeles area forced producers of commercials, television shows and even student films to pause or seek alternate shooting locations. Applications for filming in the Angeles National Forest were also halted this week.

Property worth billions of dollars is at risk. Some 86,000 homes were at risk in Ventura and Los Angeles counties, according to CoreLogic Inc <CLGX.O> a California-based risk analysis firm, with reconstruction possibly totaling $27.7 billion.

California is still recovering from wildfires in the northern part of the state that resulted in insured losses of more than $9 billion in October. Those fires, which were concentrated in California’s wine country, killed 43 people.

(Additional reporting by Brendan O’Brien in Milwaukee; Editing by Elaine Hardcastle)

Be ‘ready to GO!’ Southern California warns residents as fires rage

By Ben Gruber and Mike Blake

FARIA BEACH/LILAC, Calif. (Reuters) – Fanned by gusting winds, wildfires raged in densely populated Southern California for a fourth day on Thursday, with a new blaze north of San Diego exploding in size in just a few hours and dangerous conditions forecast until Sunday.

The blazes destroyed hundreds of houses and forced many Los Angeles-area schools to close. Flames hopscotched over highways and railroad tracks, and residents rushed to evacuate their homes with only minutes’ warning, some leaving behind holiday gifts. People feared for the safety of animals from cats to llamas.

About 200,000 residents were evacuated from their homes at one point, though some were due to return on Thursday evening.

Authorities said the four biggest fires — ranging from Los Angeles up the Pacific coast to Santa Barbara County — were whipped up by the region’s notorious westward Santa Ana winds that could reach hurricane strength.

The winds blow in hot and dry from the California desert, and the state CAL FIRE agency said gusty winds and extremely low humidity would continue through Sunday.

“Prepare now to ensure if evacuated you and your family are ready to GO!” CAL FIRE said on Twitter.

The Thomas Fire northwest of Los Angeles grew to 115,000 acres (46,540 hectares) from 96,000 acres (38,850 hectares) and destroyed 439 structures, officials said. More than 2,600 firefighters from as far away as Portland, Oregon, and Nevada were battling the blaze, which was 5-percent contained.

North of San Diego, another blaze called the Lilac Fire grew from 10 acres to 2,500 acres (1,011 hectares) in just a few hours on Thursday, CAL FIRE said, prompting Governor Jerry Brown to declare a state of emergency for San Diego County.

The blaze destroyed 20 structures and prompted evacuations and road closures. Propane tanks under several houses exploded from the heat, sounding like bombs, according to a Reuters photographer at the scene.

The other fires, which broke out on Monday and Tuesday, have reached into the wealthy enclave of Bel-Air on Los Angeles’ West Side. Some major highways in the densely populated area were intermittently closed.

Firefighters and helicopters sprayed and dumped bucketloads of water to try to contain the flames against a hellish backdrop of flaming mountains and walls of smoke.

No civilian casualties or fatalities have been reported from the blazes but three firefighters were injured, the Los Angeles Fire Department said.

In the seaside enclave of Faria Beach, caught between burning mountains and the Pacific Ocean, northwest of Ventura, fires spread down the smoking hills. Flames jumped the heavily used U.S. 101 highway and headed toward clusters of beach houses. Firefighters lined up along a railroad track, the last barrier from the flames.

Surrounded by strong winds and smoke, resident Songsri Kesonchampa aimed a garden hose at a large pine tree between her Faria Beach house and the fire, attempting to fend off disaster.

“If this tree catches fire, the strong wind will blow the flames towards my house. I need to protect this tree,” she said.

As she spoke, a sheriff’s car drove by, ordering residents to evacuate. “The fire is here. You must evacuate your homes right now,” an officer said over the loudspeaker.

In the coastal city of Ventura, resident Maurice Shimabuku said his friends had told him to evacuate but he was staying put for now, feeling safe because he was near the Pacific Ocean. “I know I can just run back out that way, so I am relatively safe,” he said. “I even have a surfboard and a wetsuit in my backyard right now, if I need to paddle away.”

Heavy smoke made breathing hazardous in some areas, and residents were urged to stay inside. Ventura County authorities said air pollution measures in the Ojai Valley were “off the charts.”

The Los Angeles Police Department tweeted, “LAPD Working to Save Every Californian, Pets Included” along with a photo of a police officer in a respirator rescuing a cat. The Los Angeles County animal shelter said it was hosting 184 pets including llamas, donkeys and horses while reports said 29 horses were burned to death on Tuesday at a ranch in the Sylmar neighborhood of Los Angeles.

The Skirball Fire in Los Angeles has forced hundreds of residents in the wooded hills near the Bel-Air neighborhood to evacuate and charred more than 475 acres (192 hectares).

Jeremy Broekman was camped out at his in-laws’ house in Sherman Oaks after evacuating his family of five early on Wednesday from their home a mile (1.6 km) away from the Skirball fire.

Broekman, who runs a public relations firm from his home office, had just an hour to get his family out of the house, grabbing hard drives and Pokemon cards and leaving behind a pile of Hannukah presents. He spent Thursday trying to work and checking the news while also caring for his three children, whose schools were closed because of the fire.

“Although we always say we can work remotely with the use of a laptop, when you are displaced like this you are emotionally unbalanced,” he said.

Skirball threatened media magnate Rupert Murdoch’s Moraga Estate winery. The property was evacuated, with possible damage to some buildings, Murdoch said in a statement, but “We believe the winery and house are still intact.”

CLASSES CANCELED

The Los Angeles Unified School District, the country’s second largest with more than 640,000 students, said it closed at least 265 of its nearly 1,100 schools. The University of California Santa Barbara canceled classes as well.

Utilities cut power to customers in some mountain communities northeast of San Diego and east of Los Angeles to lessen fire danger. The outage could last several days.

The fires are the second outbreak to ravage parts of California this autumn. The celebrated wine country in the northern part of the state was hit by wind-driven wildfires in October that killed at least 43 people, forced some 10,000 to flee their homes and consumed at least 245,000 acres (9,900 hectares) north of the San Francisco Bay area.

The California Department of Insurance said the northern California blazes caused insured losses of more than $9 billion.

GRAPHIC: Southern California wildfires, click http://tmsnrt.rs/2ADhxIj

(Reporting by Ben Gruber in Faria Beach, California and Mike Blake in Lilac, California; Additional reporting by Dan Whitcomb and Nichola Groom in Los Angeles, Peter Szekely in New York and Brendan O’Brien in Milwaukee; Writing by Bill Trott and Cynthia Osterman; Editing by Jeffrey Benkoe, James Dalgleish and Lisa Shumaker; Editing by Sandra Maler)

Winds whip up wildfires, forcing mass evacuations in California

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) – Hot, dry Santa Ana winds are expected to fan several relentless wildfires in southern California on Thursday, where hundreds of houses have burned and tens of thousands have fled their homes around Los Angeles, the second-largest U.S. city.

The winds, which blow westward from the California desert, were forecast to reach 75 mph (130 kph) on Thursday. That could stoke several blazes burning in the Los Angeles area that have already caused, according to local media, about 200,000 people to evacuate.

“Strong winds over night creating extreme fire danger,” said an alert sent by the countrywide emergency system in Los Angeles.

Video and photographs on social media showed flame-covered hillsides along busy roadways as commuters slowly made their way to work or home, rows of houses reduced to ash and firefighters spraying water on walls of fire as they tried to save houses.

“We are in the beginning of a protracted wind event,” Ken Pimlott, director of the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (Cal Fire), told the Los Angeles Times. “There will be no ability to fight fire in these kinds of winds.”

In the San Fernando Valley north of Los Angeles, the Creek Fire destroyed at least 30 homes, blackened more than 12,000 acres (4,800 hectares) and forced the evacuation of 2,500 homes and a convalescent center.

Another fire, known as the Rye Fire, threatened more than 5,000 homes and structures northwest of Los Angeles.

The Skirball Fire, which erupted early on Wednesday had burned about 500 acres (200 hectares) near large estates in the Bel-Air neighborhood of Los Angeles, was only 5 percent contained. Firefighters battled to save multimillion-dollar homes in the path of the flames.

“These are days that break your heart,” Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti said during a news conference. “These are also days that show the resilience of our city.”

No civilian casualties or fatalities have been reported. Three firefighters were injured and hospitalized in stable condition, the Los Angeles Fire Department said.

Dozens of schools across the area canceled classes on Thursday.

The largest blaze, the Thomas Fire, burned more than 90,000 acres (36,000 hectares) after it destroyed more than 150 homes and threatened thousands more in Ventura, about 50 miles (80 km) northwest on Los Angeles.

Additional evacuations were called for late on Wednesday in the Ventura area, where 50,000 people had already fled their homes over the last three days.

“The danger is imminent,” Cal Fire said in its evacuation notice.

(Reporting by Brendan O’Brien in Milwaukee, editing by Larry King)

Unrelenting California wildfire threatens thousands of homes

By Mike Blake

VENTURA, Calif. (Reuters) – An unrelenting wildfire fanned by hot, dry Santa Ana winds threatened more than 12,000 homes in and around Ventura, California, on Wednesday, forcing thousands of people to race for safety.

The fire, dubbed the Thomas Fire, raged in the foothills above and in the city of Ventura some 50 miles northwest of Los Angeles, fire officials said late on Tuesday, a day after it began. It had charred more than 50,000 acres, they said.

“We are still in the middle of an aggressive and active firefight on the ground,” said Robert Welsbie, spokesman for the Ventura Fire Department. “If the winds pick up, we will face quite a challenge.”

The fire, which was zero percent contained, was being whipped by unpredictable Santa Ana winds, which blow in from the California desert. Wind gusts were forecast to top out at 70 miles per hour (115 km per hour) on Wednesday and remain strong through the week.

There were no immediate reports of fatalities or civilian casualties, Welsbie said.

“The public did an outstanding job heeding our evacuation orders, getting out of these danger zones in a very prompt timely manner,” Welsbie said.

Some 1,000 firefighters were battling to save homes from the conflagration. One firefighter suffered a minor injury, was treated and released, Welsbie said.

California Governor Jerry Brown declared a state of emergency, freeing state funds and resources to assist.

More than 250,000 homes were without power, utilities said. All schools in the Ventura Unified School District canceled classes for Wednesday.

The Thomas Fire was the largest of several large blazes that broke out across Southern California following the onset of the Santa Ana winds.

In the San Fernando Valley north of Los Angeles, the so-called Creek Fire had blackened more than 11,000 acres and forced the evacuation of 2,500 homes and a convalescent center north of Interstate 210. The highway remained open even as other roads were closed, officials said.

Three firefighters were injured and taken to a hospital, where they were in stable condition, the Los Angeles Fire Department said on its website.

Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti declared a state of emergency in the city while 11 Los Angeles Unified schools canceled Wednesday classes.

Some 30 structures were destroyed by the Creek Fire as of Tuesday evening, the Los Angeles Fire Department said.

(Brendan O’Brien in Milwaukee; Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky)

Thousands flee wildfire in Ventura County, north of Los Angeles

VENTURA COUNTY, Calif. (Reuters) – A rapidly spreading wildfire in the foothills north of Los Angeles threatened thousands of homes on Tuesday, forcing residents to evacuate after causing at least one death and power outages throughout the area, officials said.

Some 7,700 households in Ventura County, California, about 70 miles (115 km) northwest of Los Angeles, were told to leave as the 31,000-acre wildfire, known as the Thomas Fire, burned dry brush after erupting earlier on Monday evening, Ventura County officials said on Twitter.

One motorist was killed fleeing the blaze, a local ABC television affiliate reported. More than 250,000 homes lost power and at least two structures were destroyed, a local power company said on Twitter.

“We got my kids out first,” Melissa Grisales told ABC 7 in Los Angeles. “Pretty scary, really. I didn’t think it was going to come to that, but I am starting to get pretty concerned.”

About 500 firefighters battled the fire that destroyed multiple structures, officials said on the Ventura County website.

Strong eastern winds pushed the fire toward the cities of Santa Paula and Ventura, where about 140,000 people live, county officials said.

“We’re really just trying to catch it around the edges and just pinching it off as quickly as we possibly can,” Ventura County firefighter Jason Hodge told the Los Angeles Times.

The fire was stoked by wind gusts of up to 70 mph (115 kph) that were expected to remain in the area along with low humidity through the week, the National Weather Service forecast.

About 390 students at Thomas Aquinas College were evacuated as a precaution, the school said on Twitter.

Evacuation centers were opened at a high school and the county fairgrounds, media reported.

(Reporting by Brendan O’Brien in Milwaukee; Editing by Catherine Evans and Jeffrey Benkoe)

Playing with fire: tens of thousands refuse to leave Bali volcano homes

By Kanupriya Kapoor

KARANGASEM, Indonesia (Reuters) – Tens of thousands of villagers on the Indonesian holiday island of Bali are refusing to evacuate a 10-km (six-mile) danger zone around an erupting volcano, putting their fate in the hands of the gods or simply staying put to protect homes and livestock.

The glowing, 3,000-metre Mount Agung, considered sacred by many on the Hindu-majority island, started spewing huge columns of ash at the weekend and there have been constant tremors and volcanic mud flows since.

Search and rescue teams making daily forays into the zone say some are refusing to leave their cattle unattended, while others have spiritual reasons.

“The government has been clear about evacuation orders, but some people are slow to act or want to stay,” said Gede Ardana, head of Bali’s search and rescue agency.

“We cannot force them – but we will be held responsible, so we need to convince them.”

For cattle farmer Ketut Suwarte, there was no question of staying put.

“There was thick ash falling around us and we could smell sulfur. We were scared and we decided to leave immediately,” said Suwarte, 47, now staying in an evacuation camp just outside the danger zone.

Suwarte’s father recalls the last time Mount Agung exploded, in 1963, killing about 1,000 people as pyroclastic flows – made up of hot gas and volcanic matter – raced down the mountain.

Sutopo Purwo Nugroho, of the disaster mitigation agency, said about 43,000 people had heeded advice to take shelter, but with an estimated population of 90,000 to 100,000 in the danger area, many had not.

Ika Wardani, 33, sleeps with her family at an evacuation center at night but during the day returns to her cattle farm about 10 km north of the volcano.

‘THEY ARE STUBBORN’

“During the day at least we can see the volcano. But we’re uncomfortable sleeping here at night because an earthquake or loud explosion would cause panic,” she said. “We would have to drive our motorbikes at night and the roads are narrow so it’s safer to spend the nights at the evacuation center.”

She says there are people only five km from the crater who have refused to evacuate.

“They are stubborn,” she said. “Some of them survived 1963 so they believe it’s all right now.”

The government has set up radio stations and chat groups on social media to warn people of the risks.

“Many people have made the decision to stay inside the exclusion zone, and that is clearly very dangerous,” said Sutopo Purwo Nugroho, a spokesman for the disaster management agency.

Others, including tourists, are taking unnecessary risks by trying to take selfies as close as possible, officials say. Last month, a Frenchman shared a video of himself at the crater’s edge on social media.

In September, when authorities first raised the warning alert to the highest level, an exclusion zone of up to 12 km was imposed, prompting nearly 150,000 to leave, but when no major eruption occurred, many returned and the warning status was lowered. When authorities again raised the warning level this week, many were reluctant to move again.

“If (Mount Agung) follows the most frequent trend, it is likely to continue increasing in explosivity – but at what rate and how large, nobody knows,” said Dr Carmen Solana, a volcanologist at the University of Portsmouth.

President Joko Widodo on Wednesday urged people to leave the exclusion zone before it’s too late.

“There must not be any victims,” he said.

(Additional reporting by Johannes P. Christo; Editing by Ed Davies and Nick Macfie)

Indonesia orders immediate evacuation as highest alert issued for Bali volcano

Mount Agung volcano erupts as seen from Culik Village, Karangasem, Bali,

By Nyimas Laula

DENPASAR, Indonesia (Reuters) – Indonesia closed the airport on the tourist island of Bali on Monday and ordered 100,000 residents living near a grumbling volcano spewing columns of ash to evacuate immediately, warning that the first major eruption in 54 years could be “imminent”.

The airport was closed for 24 hours from Monday morning, disrupting 445 flights and some 59,000 passengers, after Mount Agung, which killed hundreds of people in 1963, sent volcanic ash high into the sky, and officials said cancellations could be extended.

“Plumes of smoke are occasionally accompanied by explosive eruptions and the sound of weak blasts that can be heard up to 12 km (7 miles) from the peak,” the Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) said in a statement after raising the alert from three to its highest level of four.

“The potential for a larger eruption is imminent,” it said, referring to a visible glow of magma at Mount Agung’s peak overnight, and warning residents to evacuate a danger zone at a radius of 8-10 km (5-6 miles).

Sutopo, a BNPB spokesman, said there had been no casualties so far and 40,000 people had left the area, but tens of thousands still needed to move.

Video footage shared by the agency showed volcanic mud flows (lahar) on the mountainside. Lahar carrying mud and large boulders can destroy houses, bridges and roads in its path.

Glowing light of hot lava is seen during the eruption of Mount Agung as seen from Amed in Karangasem, Bali, Indonesia.
REUTERS/Johannes P. Christo

Bali, famous for its surf, beaches and temples, attracted nearly 5 million visitors last year, and its airport serves as a transport hub for the chain of islands in Indonesia’s eastern archipelago.

But tourism has slumped in parts of Bali since September when Agung’s volcanic tremors began to increase and the alert level was raised to maximum before being lowered in October when seismic activity calmed.”I’m really worried. Maybe I’ll go somewhere south that I think will be safe to avoid being trapped by the ashfall,” said Maria Becker, a German tourist staying in Amed, around 15 km (9 miles) from the volcano.

Agung rises majestically over eastern Bali to a height of just over 3,000 metres (9,800 feet). Northeastern Bali is relatively undeveloped compared to the more heavily populated southern tourist hub of Kuta-Seminyak-Nusa Dua.

Indonesia’s Vulcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation Centre (PVMBG), which is using drones, satellite imagery and other equipment, said predictions were difficult in the absence of instrumental recordings from the last eruption 54 years ago.

In 1963, an eruption of Agung killed more than 1,000 people and razed several villages by hurling out pyroclastic material, hot ash, lava and lahar.

Recordings now show the northeast area of Agung’s peak has swollen in recent weeks “indicating there is fairly strong pressure toward the surface”, PVMBG said.

It warned that if a similar eruption occurred, it could send rocks bigger than fist-size up to 8 km (5 miles) from the summit and volcanic gas to a distance of 10 km (6 miles) within three minutes.

Some analysis, however, suggests the threat should not be as great this time because “energy at Mount Agung’s magma chamber is not as big” and the ash column only around a quarter as high so far as the 20 km (12 miles) reached in 1963, Sutopo said.

“CHECK-INS CLOSED”

Bali airport, about 60 km (37 miles) from the volcano, will be closed for 24 hours, its operator said.

Ten alternative airports have been prepared for airlines to divert inbound flights, including in neighboring provinces.

Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd said it was cancelling flights on Tuesday, while Jetstar was offering to exchange Bali bound tickets for other destinations.

Television footage showed hundreds of holidaymakers camped inside the airport terminal, some sleeping on their bags, others using mobile telephones.

“We have been here (in Bali) for three days we are about to leave today, but just found out our flights have been canceled. We have got no information because the gates, the check-ins, have been closed indefinitely,” said Carlo Oben from Los Angeles.

Cover-More, Australia’s biggest travel insurer, said on its website customers would only be covered if they had bought policies before the volcano alert was first issued on Sept. 18.

Indonesia’s hotel and restaurant association said stranded tourists at member hotels would get one night’s free stay.

The main airport on Lombok, next to Bali, was closed after being open for much of the day, a spokesman said.

Airlines avoid flying when volcanic ash is present because it can damage engines and can clog fuel and cooling systems and hamper visibility.

(For interactive package on Agung eruptions, click http://tmsnrt.rs/2AayRVh)(For graphic on Pacific ring of fire, click http://tmsnrt.rs/2AzR9jv)

(Additonal reporting by Reuters Bali stringer in DENPASAR, Angie Teo, Fransiska Nangoy and Bernadette Christina Munthe in JAKARTA and Jamie Freed in SINGAPORE; Writing by Ed Davies and Fergus Jensen; Editing by Michael Perry and Nick Macfie)

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