Tag Archives: Islamic State

Eyeing Deir al-Zor, Syrian army advances on Islamic State town

FILE PHOTO - Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) stand on their military vehicle in northern Deir al-Zor province ahead of an offensive against Islamic State militants, Syria February 21, 2017. REUTERS/Rodi Said

BEIRUT (Reuters) – Syrian government forces are nearing the last major town held by Islamic State (IS) in Homs province, part of their multi-pronged advance toward the jihadist group’s strongholds in the east of the country, a military source said on Thursday.

The source said combat operations would accelerate toward the town of al-Sukhna, some 50 km (30 miles) from the administrative frontier of Deir al-Zor province, where IS has redeployed many fighters after losing ground in Syria and Iraq.

“Capturing al-Sukhna means opening the door and path for forces to move to Deir al-Zor directly,” the source told Reuters, adding that the military had captured positions 8 km (5 miles) southwest of the town on Wednesday evening.

Islamic State is losing ground fast in Syria to separate campaigns waged by the Russian-backed Syrian government on the one hand, and to U.S.-backed Kurdish forces and their allies on the other.

Government forces, backed by the Russian air force and Iran-backed militias, have also been advancing against IS in Hama province and in southern areas of Raqqa province.

U.S.-led operations against IS are currently focused on taking Raqqa city.

Government forces have been approaching al-Sukhna gradually since capturing the ancient city of Palmyra, some 50 km away, in March.

“It is natural that combat operations escalate in this direction and take on a stronger and faster nature,” the source said, adding that Islamic State had concentrated forces in al-Sukhna.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the government forces were being supported in the attack by Russian air strikes and allied militias, and had moved to within 5 km of al-Sukhna.

Deir al-Zor province, which borders Iraq to the east, is almost entirely under Islamic State control. The Syrian government has held on to a pocket of territory in the provincial capital of Deir al-Zor city, and at nearby air base.

(Writing by Tom Perry; Editing by Catherine Evans)

Booby-traps plague north Iraq as Islamic State targets returning civilians

A member of the Iraqi Federal Police runs for cover on the frontline in the Old City, June 28, 2017. REUTERS/Ahmed Jadallah

By Angus MacSwan

SHEIKH AMIR, Iraq (Reuters) – As people return home to Mosul and other areas of northern Iraq freed from Islamic State, homemade bombs and explosives laid on an industrial scale by the insurgents are claiming hundreds of victims and hampering efforts to bring life back to normal.

Houses, schools, mosques and streets are all booby-trapped, a big problem in West Mosul following its recapture by government forces this month after nine months of fighting.

Beyond Mosul, in villages and fields stretching from the Plain of Nineveh to the Kurdish autonomous region, retreating Islamic State fighters have sown a vast area with improvised bombs and mines as their self-proclaimed caliphate shrinks.

“The scale of contamination? There are kilometers and kilometers and kilometers of active devices, sensitive enough to be detonated by a child and powerful enough to blow up a truck,” Craig McInally, operations manager for Norwegian People’s Aid anti-explosives project, said.

While mines are usually laid in rows in open ground, improvised explosives in buildings are wired into household appliances such as fridges, heaters and televisions, primed to explode at the flick of a switch or an opened door, experts say.

Since clearing operations began last October, about 1,700 people have been killed or injured by such explosives, according to the United Nations Mines Action Service, which co-ordinates the clearing campaign.

By targeting civilians, Islamic State hopes to thwart a stabilization effort aiming to get people back to their homes, jobs and studies, rebuild infrastructure and reinstate government rule.

While the crisis lasts, Islamic State – whose strategy extends far beyond military operations – could thrive again, said Charles Stuart, charge d’affaires at the European Union mission in Iraq.

UNDER THE RUBBLE

Sheikh Amir, on the main Erbil-Mosul road at the line between Kurdish and Iraqi army control, is an abandoned, bombed-out ruin – one of hundreds of villages in such a state.

On a sweltering morning, Haskim Hazim, 37, was working with his brother and a few friends to repair his house, mixing cement and erecting a cinder-block wall.

Apart from his, only one other family out of a village that once had 120 Sunni and Shi’ite Muslim households has returned since it was recaptured from Islamic State in October, he said.

When he came back, his house, adjacent buildings and animal pens had been booby-trapped. “All were connected together. The bomb was a jerry can,” he said.

Many other houses had been rigged with improvised explosives. Islamic State had also dug tunnels in and around the village. A Mines Advisory Group (MAG) team had gone through and cleared most of that but it was still dangerous, he said.

A few weeks ago, a 12-year-old boy tending sheep nearby had picked up an object from the ground. It exploded and blew the fingers off one of his hands, Hazim said.

“We don’t know what is under the rubble,” said his brother, Jassan Abbas Hazim, 35, pointing to houses demolished by U.S.-led coalition air strikes and Islamic State.

Their families were staying in rented rooms in Erbil and Qaraqosh, the men said.

“There’s nothing here, no school, no medicine, no water – just a well,” Hazim said. “I hope other people come back. If they don’t, then what?”

In Qarqashah, in the same area, two returning families were killed when the pick-ups they were driving in triggered a mine. Today, only one family of shepherds lives there full-time, the NPA’s McInally said.

In nearby Kaberli, about 20 families have returned since February after NPA teams cleared schools and houses.

The EU’s Stuart gave the example of a schoolroom in Fallujah where explosives were packed beneath a classroom’s floorboards to kill children as they went to their desks. It was discovered in time.

A big problem is civilians taking matters into their own hands and trying to clear their homes themselves, Stuart said, and children playing in the streets are particularly vulnerable.

CRUSH NECKLACES

In the NPA office in Erbil, McInally, a U.S. army veteran who has cleared explosive hazards in countries from Colombia to Afghanistan, showed off a collection of devices, many fashioned from rusty bits of metal.

The most common is a “pressure plate” – two long plates held apart by spacers, one connected to a negative lead the other to a positive lead. When trodden on, the circuit closes and detonates the main charge.

Other devices, so-called “crush necklaces”, are like miniature pressure plates made from small metal or plastic clips. They are difficult to find with metal detectors and hard to spot visually.

“This is an industrialized assembly line. These are guys who are educated. They understand electronics,” McInally said.

The bomb-makers are also learning from clearers’ techniques and are adapting to them, he said.

The anti-explosives campaign involves Iraqi and Kurdish authorities, the United Nations, and an array of NGOs and commercial outfits. It extends beyond decontaminating sites.

Community liaison teams give mine-risk awareness lessons to hundreds of people.

At the Kadiz Abdulajad School in West Mosul, recently reopened after three years of Islamist rule, head teacher Thekriat Mohammed Hussein said the children were given lessons in mine and explosives awareness as part of the curriculum.

MAG is also training people to handle explosives-clearing in their own communities and civilians are being trained as first-responders to give emergency medical treatment to blast victims.

Bureaucracy and funding can hinder the effort though and resources are insufficient, clearers say. For 2017, UNMAS has received $16 million of the required $112 million.

And the liberation of Mosul signifies the only the latest phase of the scourge. Iraq is peppered with “legacy” explosives going back to the Iran-Iraq War, former leader Saddam Hussein’s war against the Kurds, and the U.S.-led war following the 2003 invasion. Islamic State militants are also expected to plant new areas as they fall back to the Syrian border.

It could take decades to clear them, experts say.

(Editing by Louise Ireland)

NATO offers to broker compromise in Turkish-German stand-off

FILE PHOTO: German Chancellor Angela Merkel greets Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the beginning of the G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany, July 7, 2017. REUTERS/Bernd Von Jutrczenka/POOL/File Photo

By Paul Carrel and Robin Emmott

BERLIN (Reuters) – NATO’s secretary general is offering to broker a visit by German lawmakers to troops serving on a Turkish air base in an attempt to heal a rift between the two allies which is disrupting anti-Islamic State operations.

The mediation offer by NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, announced on Monday, came as Ankara itself sought to limit the economic fallout from the damaging row with Berlin, dropping a request for Germany to help it investigate hundreds of German companies it said could have links to terrorism.

Germany has become increasingly worried by President Tayyip Erdogan’s crackdown on the Turkish opposition since a coup attempt last year – concerns made more acute by the arrest this month of six human rights activists, including one German.

Adding to tensions is Turkey’s refusal to let German members of parliament visit soldiers stationed at two air bases. For historical reasons, Germany’s soldiers answer to parliament and Berlin insists lawmakers have access to them.

This has already led Germany to move troops involved in the campaign against Islamic State from Turkey’s Incirlik base to Jordan. The risk of further decampments has sparked deep concern in NATO and now prompted it to intervene.

“The Secretary General has now offered to arrange a visit for parliamentarians to Konya airfield within a NATO framework,” alliance spokesman Piers Cazalet said on Monday. “Konya airfield is vital for NATO operations in support of Turkey and the Counter-ISIS Coalition.”

With Germany Ankara’s largest export market and home to a three million strong Turkish diaspora, it is in Turkey’s economic interests to resolve the row. The swift deterioration in relations threatens to damage deep-rooted human and economic ties.

CLOSE TIES

Germany has warned its nationals traveling to Turkey that they do so at their own risk, and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said Erdogan was “jeopardizing the centuries-old partnership”.

Stepping back from confrontation, Turkey’s interior minister on Monday told his German counterpart that Ankara’s submission to Interpol of a list of nearly 700 German companies suspected of backing terrorism had stemmed from “a communications problem”.

Turkey had merely asked Interpol for information regarding the exports of 40 Turkish companies with alleged links to U.S.-based cleric Fethullah Gulen, blamed for the failed putsch last July, Deputy Prime Minister Bekir Bozdag said. He promised that Turkey would remain a “safe haven” for foreign investors.

Germany’s DIHK Chambers of Industry and Commerce said firms remained uncertain about doing business in Turkey, from which Germany bought $14 billion worth of goods in 2016.

“I hear it a lot: if the political environment does not improve, if legal certainty is in question, then there will hardly be a recovery in new investments by German firms (in Turkey),” DIHK foreign trade chief Volker Treier said.

(Additional reporting by Rene Wagner in Berlin, Robin Emmott in Brussels and Ece Toksabay in Ankara, writing by Thomas Escritt; Editing by Richard Balmforth)

Kansas man gets 30-year sentence for foiled bomb plot targeting U.S. military base

U.S. Army Soldiers, assigned to 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team, 1st Infantry Division, fire a TOW missile from a Bradley Fighting Vehicle during training at Fort Riley, Kansas, May 18, 2016. U.S. Army photo by Capt. Jonathan Camire

(Reuters) – A Kansas man was sentenced on Monday to 30 years in federal prison for plotting a failed suicide bombing at a U.S. military base on behalf of Islamic State, federal prosecutors said.

John Booker Jr., 22, of Topeka, pleaded guilty in February to plotting the April 2015 attack on Army personnel at Fort Riley, Kansas, and aiding the Islamic State fight against the United States, the Justice Department said in a statement.

Booker was sentenced in U.S. District Court in Kansas City, Kansas, on one count of attempted use of a weapon of mass destruction and one count of attempted destruction of government property by fire or explosion.

Booker was arrested as part of a sting operation in which he went to Fort Riley with two undercover Federal Bureau of Investigation agents to detonate what he did not know was an inert bomb.

Booker had planned to build a vehicle bomb holding 1,000 pounds (455 kg) of ammonium nitrate and trigger it himself, dying in the process, the Justice Department statement said.

Prosecutors said they had tracked Booker since he posted Facebook messages in March 2014 in which he said: “Getting ready to get killed in jihad is a HUGE adrenaline rush!!” He had been in unwitting contact with an undercover FBI agent since October 2014.

A friend of Booker, Alexander Blair, of Topeka, pleaded guilty to storing bomb equipment for him and was sentenced to 15 months in prison in October 2016.

(Reporting by Ian Simpson in Washington; Editing by Peter Cooney)

Marawi standoff enters third month, underlining crisis in Philippines

FILE PHOTO: An explosion is seen after a Philippines army aircraft released a bomb during an airstrike as government troops continue their assault against insurgents from the Maute group in Marawi city June 27, 2017. REUTERS/Jorge Silva/File Photo

By Martin Petty

MANILA (Reuters) – Two months after Islamist militants launched an assault on one of the biggest southern cities in the Philippines, the fighting is dragging on, and President Rodrigo Duterte says he is prepared to wait for a year for it to end.

The defense top brass admits it underestimated its enemy and is struggling to finish off the highly organized, pro-Islamic State fighters who swept through Marawi City on May 23 and have held parts of it despite sustained ground attacks by hundreds of soldiers and daily pummeling by planes and artillery.

On Saturday, lawmakers approved Duterte’s request to extend martial law to the end of the year on the island of Mindanao, granting greater powers to security forces to go after extremists with a reach that goes far beyond Marawi.

But it remains unclear how exactly Duterte plans to tackle extremism after troops retake Marawi, where about 70 militants remain holed up in the debris of what was once a flourishing commercial district, along with many civilian hostages.

More than 500 people have been killed, including 45 civilians and 105 government troops. After missing several self-imposed deadlines to re-take the city, the military says its options are limited because of the hostages.

Duterte has said he had asked to military to avoid more civilian casualties.

“I told them ‘do not attack’. What’s important is we do not want to kill people,” he said on Friday. “If we have to wait there for one year, let us wait for one year.”

The southern Philippines has been marred for decades by insurgency and banditry. But the intensity of the battle in Marawi and the presence of foreign fighters fighting alongside local militants has raised concerns that the region may be becoming a Southeast Asian hub for Islamic State as it loses ground in Iraq and Syria.

Militants from neighbouring Malaysia and Indonesia, both Muslim-majority nations, are fighting in Marawi.

About 5 million Muslims live in the Catholic-majority Philippines, mostly on Mindanao. Defence Secretary Delfin Lorenzana indicated on Saturday that after Marawi, the government would strengthen surveillance in the region, widening the net to detect rebel training camps and movements of militants.

“We need communications equipment, high-tech communications equipment that we can use to monitor cellphones of the enemies. We also need drones,” he told Congress.

OVERHAUL

Security experts say the government needs a strategic overhaul after failing to act on warnings long ago that radical ideology was taking hold in Mindanao, and luring foreign fighters unable to join Islamic State in Syria and Iraq.

“Things have changed dramatically … our country must pursue some paradigm shifts,” said analyst and retired police intelligence officer Rodolfo Mendoza.

“We have to counter the spread of terrorism not only by supporting use of intelligence or counter intelligence, but tackling the root causes.”

The Marawi assault was planned and executed by a relatively new group, Dawla Islamiya, better known as the Maute Group, which wants recognition from Islamic State as its regional affiliate.

Led by two brothers, the Maute Group want a “Wilayah”, or province of Islamic State, in Lanao del Sur province, where it has engaged in fierce, days-long battles with the military since 2016, each time suffering heavy losses before regrouping months later.

The brothers, Abdullah and Omarkhayam Maute, have been joined by Isnilon Hapilon, the anointed Southeast Asian “Emir” of Islamic State and leader of a faction of another Mindanao group, Abu Sayyaf.

The Marawi fighting has been much publicized across militant networks and experts say it could attract more fighters to the region.

“It has inspired young extremists from around the region to want to join,” the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict said in a report on Friday, adding the fighting had “lifted the prestige of the Philippine fighters in the eyes of ISIS Central”.

Richard Javad Heydarian, a political science professor at Manila’s De La Salle University, said the military is seeking to neutralize the Maute brothers to buy time to disrupt recruitment and stop fighters regrouping.

Moderate separatist groups from Mindanao should be co-opted to counter the extremist message, he said, while the military should work closer with the United States and Australia, which have provided operational advice and surveillance planes.

The Marawi crisis erupted not because of intelligence failures, but the policy priorities of Duterte, Heydarian added.

He said Duterte, who came to power a year ago, channeled security resources into a war on drugs instead of countering Islamic radicalization in the south, an issue the president himself has himself flagged in the past.

“They were all aware of this. It was just a matter of time,” Heydarian said.

(This version of the story was refiled to remove the extraneous word “should” in paragraph 21)

(Edited by Raju Gopalakrishnan)

Four German women who joined Islamic State detained in Iraq: report

BERLIN (Reuters) – Four German women, including a 16-year-old girl, who joined Islamic State in recent years are being held in an Iraqi prison and receiving consular assistance, Der Spiegel magazine reported on Saturday.

It said diplomats had visited the four in a prison at the airport in Baghdad on Thursday and they were doing well given the circumstances. They could face the death penalty in Iraq for belonging to the militant group, the magazine added.

It said Iraqi authorities had given Germany a list with the women’s names at the beginning of the week, identifying the teenager only as Linda W. from the small town of Pulsnitz near the eastern city of Dresden.

Germany’s Foreign Ministry declined to comment on the report.

German prosecutors said on Tuesday they were checking reports that a 16-year-old under investigation for supporting Islamic State was among five women arrested in the Iraqi city of Mosul, where Iraqi forces declared victory over Islamic State earlier this month.

Der Spiegel said one of the Germans had Moroccan roots and another seemed to come from Chechnya but had a German passport.

The BfV domestic intelligence agency estimates that 930 people have left Germany in recent years to join Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. About 20 percent of them are women. Minors account for about 5 percent of the total number, of which half are female, it reckons.

(Reporting by Michelle Martin; Editing by Helen Popper)

Philippine Congress agrees to extend Mindanao martial law to end of year

An anti martial law protestor hold a placard while protesting during the special session on the extension of martial law at the House of Representatives in Quezon City, metro Manila, Philippines July 22, 2017. REUTERS/Dondi Tawatao

By Enrico Dela Cruz

MANILA (Reuters) – Philippine lawmakers on Saturday voted to retain martial law on the southern island of Mindanao until the end of the year, giving President Rodrigo Duterte more time to tackle armed extremists allied with the Islamic State group.

Some 261 legislators agreed to extend military rule in a seven hour-long joint special session of the House of Representatives and the Senate, more than the required two-thirds of the house.

Security officials had told lawmakers that martial law was needed to stabilize a region where Islamic State was gaining influence, and supporters could be inspired to stage uprisings in other areas of Mindanao, joined by foreign jihadists.

Defence Secretary Delfin Lorenzana warned of more serious problems if the government did not have the powers to act swiftly.

“We need martial law because we haven’t addressed yet the existence of other Daesh-inspired groups,” he said, referring to another name for Islamic State.

Duterte placed Mindanao under martial law on May 23 when heavily-armed militants belonging to the Maute and Abu Sayyaf groups along with foreign fighters stormed Marawi City, sparking the biggest security crisis of his presidency.

The battle to liberate Marawi continues two months after, with more than 420 militants, 100 soldiers and 45 civilians killed. Some of those were executed by the rebels, according to the military.

Government troops pulverized and retook some of the Maute strongholds after weeks of artillery attacks and airstrikes, but an estimated 70 militants remained holed up in the downtown area.

“The rebellion in Marawi continues to persist and we want to stop the spread of the evil ideology of terrorism and free the people of Mindanao from the tyranny of lawlessness and violent extremism,” Presidential Spokesman Ernesto Abella said in a statement.

But martial law remains a sensitive issue in the Philippines as it brings back memories of human rights abuses that occurred in the 1970s under the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos.

He was ousted in a “people power” revolt in 1986. Saturday’s vote paves the way for the first ever extension of a period of martial law since the Marcos era.

Opponents expressed fears Duterte might eventually place the entire country under martial law, but the authorities have dismissed that.

Senator Franklin Drilon said the extension until end of the year was too long and Senator Risa Hontiveros, a staunch critic of Duterte, said martial law has “no strategic contribution to the military’s anti-terrorism operations”.

Congressman Edcel Lagman said there was “no factual basis” for martial law and that the siege in Marawi was terrorism, not rebellion.

Rebellion is one of the pre-conditions for declaring martial law under a 1987 constitution that was drafted to prevent a repeat of the Marcos era abuses.

Military chief General Eduardo General Año said retaking Marawi has proven difficult because it was the first time troops had engaged in a “Mosul-type, hybrid urban warfare”, referring to the fighting in the Iraqi city until recently held by Islamic State.

(Reporting by Enrico dela Cruz; Additional reporting by Manuel Mogato; Editing by Martin Petty & Shri Navaratnam)

More attacks likely in Southeast Asia after Marawi: report

FILE PHOTO: Philippines army soldiers ride in trucks into the fighting zone as government troops continue their assault against insurgents from the Maute group in Marawi City, Philippines June 28, 2017. REUTERS/Jorge Silva

By Tom Allard

JAKARTA (Reuters) – As a lengthy, urban battle drags on between Philippine forces and Islamist militants in the southern city of Marawi, a new report by a think-tank has warned of more attacks by radicals in Southeast Asia, including on foreigners.

A coalition of Philippine militant groups, augmented by foreign fighters, stormed Marawi, on the island on Mindanao, nearly two months ago. The militants, who claim allegiance to Islamic State (IS), still control a portion of the city despite a sustained military offensive.

There have been similar attacks in the Philippines since last year, but the duration and ferocity of the fighting in Marawi has alarmed Southeast Asian nations and led to fears the assault could inspire and unite the region’s disparate Islamist groups.

“The risks won’t end when the military declares victory,” said Sidney Jones, director of the Institute of Policy Analysis of Conflict, adding that threats would mount in neighboring Indonesia and Malaysia, both Muslim-majority nations.

“Indonesia and Malaysia will face new threats in the form of returning fighters from Mindanao, and the Philippines will have a host of smaller dispersed cells with the capacity for both violence and indoctrination.”

The Marawi siege had united two feuding pro-IS factions in Indonesia, the world’s most-populous Muslim-majority nation, and led to soul-searching among militants there “about why they cannot manage to do anything as spectacular”, the report said.

“Once the battle for Marawi is over, it is possible that Southeast Asian ISIS leaders (in Syria) might encourage Indonesians to go after other targets, including foreigners or foreign institutions – especially if one of them comes back to lead the operations,” the report added, using another acronym for the Islamic State.

Asked about an elevated threat in Indonesia, including for foreigners, police spokesman Setyo Wasisto said: “We will stay cautious, increase our alertness and monitor the movement of those who come home from Marawi.”

Malaysia’s police counter-terrorism chief declined comment. Authorities in the Philippines did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Authorities estimate about 20 Indonesian militants were involved in the fighting in Marawi but it is not clear how many survived.

About 565 people have died in nearly two months of fighting in Marawi, according to officials, including over 420 militants, 45 civilians and almost 100 Philippines military and police.

After missing several deadlines for re-taking Marawi, Philippine officials say it is not possible to say when the fighting will end.

National Security Adviser Hermogenes Esperon told reporters on Friday a hard core of fighters has been hemmed in to three barangays, or urban villages, down from the 12 they held earlier. Marawi has 96 such barangays.

CHAIN OF COMMAND

In a key revelation, the IPAC report tracked the chain of command for the Marawi operations.

At its apex was Islamic State “Central” in Syria, represented by Katibah Nusantara, the IS military unit made up of fighters from Southeast Asia and led by Indonesian militant Bahrumsyah, likely the highest ranked member of IS from the region, it said.

Bahrumsyah organized funding and helped find international recruits, liaising with Malaysian militant Mahmud Ahmad, a former university lecturer and Islamic scholar believed to be in Marawi.

Mahmud “controlled recruitment as well as financing and has been the contact person for any foreigner wanting to join the pro-ISIS forces in the Philippines”, the report said.

Tactical decisions on the ground were made by local militant commanders but the report said “the Syria-based Southeast Asians could have a say in setting strategy for (the) region when the siege is over.”

The report warned the devastating damage to the city from Philippines military air strikes was being exploited by militant ideologues.

It cited a post on the social media platform Telegram, a message presumed to be from a militant, that said: “We did not bomb it to ashes”.

“We ordained good and forbade evil … but the response of the Crusader Army was brutal.”

The Philippines military has defended the use of air strikes in its offensive, noting that militant snipers positioned on top of buildings made it difficult for ground troops to make headway in the dense urban environment.

(Additional reporting by Stefanno Reinard in Jakarta, Rozanna Latiff in Kuala Lumpur and Martin Petty in Manila; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)

After Mosul, Islamic State digs in for guerrilla warfare

FILE PHOTO: Members of the Iraqi Army's 9th Armoured Division are photographed with an Islamic State flag, claimed after fighting with Islamic State militants in western Mosul, Iraq June 17, 2017. REUTERS/Alkis Konstantinidis/File Photo

By Michael Georgy

MOSUL (Reuters) – Islamic State militants began reinventing themselves months before U.S.-backed Iraqi forces ended their three-year reign of terror in Mosul, putting aside the dream of a modern-day caliphate and preparing the ground for a different fight.

Intelligence and local officials said that, a few months ago, they noticed a growing stream of commanders and fighters flowing out of the city to the Hamrin mountains in northeast Iraq which offer hideouts and access to four Iraqi provinces.

Some were intercepted but many evaded security forces and began setting up bases for their new operations.

What comes next may be a more complex and daunting challenge for Iraqi security forces once they finish celebrating a hard-won victory in Mosul, the militants’ biggest stronghold.

Intelligence and security officials are bracing for the kind of devastating insurgency al Qaeda waged following the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, pushing Iraq into a sectarian civil war which peaked in 2006-2007.

“They are digging in. They have easy access to the capital,” Lahur Talabany, a top Kurdish counter-terrorism official, told Reuters. As part of the U.S.-led coalition, he is at the forefront of efforts to eliminate Islamic State.

“I believe we have tougher days coming.”

Some Iraqi Islamic State fighters have roots dating back to al Qaeda’s campaign of car and suicide bombs that exploded by the dozens each day and succeeded in fueling a sectarian bloodbath in Iraq, a major oil producer and key U.S. ally.

When a U.S.-funded tribal initiative crushed al-Qaeda, the hardcore regrouped in the desert between Iraq and Syria. They reappeared with a new jihadist brand that took the world by surprise: Islamic State.

Shortly after its lighting sweep through Mosul, the group outdid al Qaeda’s brutality, carrying out mass beheadings and executions as it imposed its ultra-hardline ideology.

Unlike al-Qaeda, it seized a third of Iraqi territory, gaining knowledge of land that could come in handy as it hits back at Iraqi security forces.

SADDAM’S INTELLIGENCE AGENTS

Former Iraq intelligence officers who served under Saddam Hussein joined forces with Islamic State in an alliance of convenience. These shrewd military strategists from his Baath Party are expected to be the new generation of Islamic State leaders, Talabany and other security officials said.

Instead of trying to create a caliphate, a concept which attracted recruits from disaffected fellow Sunni Muslims, Islamic State leaders will focus on far less predictable guerrilla warfare, Iraqi and Kurdish security officials said.

Iraqi forces have come a long way since they collapsed in the face of the Islamic State advance in 2014, throwing down their weapons and removing their military uniforms in panic.

They fought for nearly nine months to seize Mosul, with steady help from U.S.-led airstrikes that flattened entire neighborhoods.

The key question is whether an army that is far more comfortable with conventional warfare can take on an insurgency with sleeper cells and small units of militants who pop out of deserts and mountains, carry out attacks and melt away.

“They’ll try to hide with the population. Their cells will get smaller – instead of companies and platoons, they’ll go to squads and cells, much smaller elements hiding in the population,” Lieutenant-General Steve Townsend, commander of the U.S.-led coalition, told reporters.

“Our Iraqi security force partners will have to engage in counter-insurgency style operations at some point and we’re already making efforts now to start shaping their training towards that next ISIS tactic.”

History suggests training may not be enough.

The United States spent $25 billion on the Iraqi military during the American occupation that toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003 and triggered an insurgency that included al Qaeda.

That did not prepare the army for the long-haired Islamic State militants who sped into Mosul in pickup trucks with weapons stolen from retreating Iraqi troops.

Iraqi forces can certainly point to successes in Mosul and the cities of Falluja and Ramadi in Anbar province, once held by Islamic State.

But local officials say the cities remain vulnerable to attacks from the vast desert nearby mastered by militants.

“Security operations will be useless unless security forces control the desert,” said Anbar official Emad Dulaimi, adding that the desert had become a safe haven for Islamic State.

“It is not present as an organization in cities but it carries out attacks by individuals. Car bombs. Suicide bombers. People fear Islamic State will come back. There are attacks every day.”

Tareq Youssef al-Asal, leader of a tribal force, shares those concerns and complains of what he says is a lack of a coordination among numerous local security forces.

“In the end these leaderships have no experience fighting in the desert,” he said.

Some ordinary citizens still do not feel safe despite the Iraqi army’s improved performance.

Anbar resident Ahmed al-Issawy does not plan on re-opening his restaurant anytime soon. He is afraid it will be destroyed the same way it was in clashes between security forces and Islamic State in 2014.

“I am afraid there could be an attack at any second,” he said.

Islamic State has not wasted any time in implementing its new strategy despite a major loss in Mosul.

About 30 militants armed with machine guns and mortars crossed the Tigris river in wooden boats, attacked the village of Imam Gharbi, some 70 km (44 miles) south of Mosul in early July and then pulled out, according to security officials.

“The notion of a caliphate is gone. The dream is gone. They will revert back to their old tactics of hit and run attacks,” said senior Kurdish official and former Iraqi foreign minister Hoshiyar Zebari. “The hardcore will keep fighting.”

(Editing by Philippa Fletcher)

In camps and ruins, Mosul civilians’ ordeal is far from over

A refugee camp is seen in Mosul, Iraq July 17, 2017. Picture taken July 17, 2017. REUTERS/Azad Lashkari

By Angus MacSwan

MOSUL, Iraq (Reuters) – The battle for Mosul is all but over after nine months of devastating urban warfare between government forces and Islamic State militants, but Iraqi civilians are suffering in a humanitarian crisis of monumental scale.

More than one million people fled their homes in Mosul and nearby villages since the fighting started. Most of them are packed into camps in the countryside or have found shelter elsewhere.

Those who ventured back to Mosul found wrecked houses, destroyed schools and hospitals, and water and power shortages, alongside the threat of gunfire and booby-traps.

Whole neighborhoods of Iraq’s second city are reduced to the crumpled ruins of what were once homes and businesses -– much of the destruction due to air strikes and artillery by the U.S.-led coalition. Charred wrecks of cars litter the streets.

“The end of the battle for Mosul isn’t the end of the ordeal for civilians. The humanitarian situation not only remains grave, but could worsen,” the Norwegian Refugee Council, one of many international organizations and governments helping the relief and rehabilitation effort, said in a statement.

Overcoming the crisis is crucial to Iraq’s political future as it struggles to build stability, overcome sectarian rivalry, and emerge from grinding conflict since the 2003 U.S. invasion.

At the Al Salamiya refugee camp on the parched Plain of Ninevah, nearly 2,000 families live in tents. While happy to be safe from the ravages of Islamic State, who subjected Mosul to harsh rule for nearly three years, they are frustrated and worried about their future.

“THERE IS NOTHING FOR US”

Muhamad Jasim, 44, was a laborer but fled with his wife and children from al-Kasik district six weeks ago in the final phases of the battle to recapture the city from Islamic State.

“Under Daesh (IS) it was very bad, no work, suffering, and they were very angry. We left behind a lot — car, house,” he said. “I was afraid for my kids. I had to leave.”

Sitting cross-legged in his tent, he complained forcefully. “We do not have money to buy things. There is nothing for us but to sit here. We don’t have enough food, we have to spend what money we have on vegetables, ice. The monthly food ration is not enough.” When did he think he might go home? “I have no idea.”

The Salamiya camp, mostly housing people from West Mosul and nearby villages, opened in late May under the auspices of the United Nations refugee agency (UNHCR) and the Iraqi government.

It seems to be well-organized and well-supplied. There is a school and a clinic. Water supplies had been a problem but now a pipeline has been laid from Salamiya town. Residents are from all walks of life, from farmers to shop-keepers.

As camp manager Ali Saleh of the French agency ACTED walked down the main street, people approached him asking for jobs, help with finding a tent for relatives, or other problems.

“It is not easy. They are frustrated. This is the beginning. We’ll see in a couple of months,” he said.

FEVER, INFECTIONS

Stalls and shops have sprung up selling nuts and pastries, fruit and vegetables, and household items. Although they are against the rules, the management is permitting them.

“A lot of people worked for a living before this and now they need financial support. If we close the shops, they will have nothing,” Saleh said.

At the clinic, Dr. Ahmed Yunis said ailments included fever, diarrhea, parasite infections and stomach pains. There were 300 consultations a morning, and from 15 to 100 in the evening.

Asked if they had supplies and equipment, he said: “Right now we don’t have any problems. We don’t know about the future.”

More than 300 women in the camp have lost their husbands and are acting as head of household. Some children are without parents, though most of these were taken in by relatives or other families in keeping with Arab tradition.

Several thousand people are without documents, such as national ID cards and birth and marriage certificates.

“Either Daesh did not issue documents or issued invalid ones. Others fled without documents,” said Nicolo Chiesa of Terre des Hommes Italy, who was working with local court officials to register people and reissue new papers.

Only 23 families have so far returned to Mosul from the camp. One of them came back, deputy manager Razhan Dler said.

“They said there was nothing for them in Mosul.”

MOONSCAPE MOSUL

Life in parts of Mosul is returning to normal, especially in the east, which was recaptured in January. Shops and markets are open but destruction left some areas looking like a moonscape.

Sporadic fighting still takes place as the last few ISIS fighters hold out in small pockets.

UNICEF delivers water to half a million people a day, including 3.3 million liters in and around East and West Mosul.

The city’s main hospital is a total ruin. The principal hospital serving West Mosul has returned to daily operations.

It deals with fewer war-related injuries but still gets several a day, Dr Abdulmohsen Mohammud said. “Now we are getting a lot of dehydrated kids, children with malnutrition,” he said.

Maternity cases are also a challenge. In the past two weeks they had 50 caeserean and 102 normal births.

UNICEF said that as fighting subsided, vulnerable unaccompanied children arrived at medical facilities and reception areas. Some babies were found in the debris.”Children’s deep physical and mental scars will take time to heal,” it said in a statement. “Some 650,000 boys and girls, who have lived through the nightmare … paid a terrible price.”

The World Food Programme said thousands of families needed emergency food assistance to survive. The government and the international community must begin rebuilding Mosul and restore basic services immediately as tens of thousands of people were likely to return soon, aid organizations said.

“The Mosul victory is definitely the beginning of a new era in Iraq. We hope this new era will be an era of reconciliation and reconstruction,” the European Union ambassador to Iraq, Patrick Simonnet, told Reuters as he visited West Mosul.

EXPLOSIVES AWARENESS CLASSES

Protection of civilians was a priority, he said, including avoiding collective punishment of suspected IS sympathizers. The government must investigate reports of revenge attacks and re-establish the rule of law, he said.

He said it was important for the EU and other governments and international agencies to remain committed to rebuilding Mosul for the next two to three years. “There’s a cost -– an important cost in our view -– of not doing anything.”

Only national reconciliation and political reform could address the root causes of Islamic State, he said.

In one optimistic sign, many schools have reopened, among them the Kadiz Abdulajad School in West Mosul, near the Old City where fierce fighting took place in the battle’s final stages.

Among the lessons, as well as reading, writing and maths, they are given classes on mine and explosives awareness.

(Reporting by Angus MacSwan; Editing by Peter Millership)