The Jim Bakker Show

French PM defends emergency rule, says terror threat ‘here to last’

PARIS (Reuters) – Thousands of house searches since November’s Islamist attacks in Paris have helped foil another terrorist plot, French Prime Minister Manuel Valls said on Friday as his government sought to extend emergency rule.

Valls, defending state of emergency rules that have allowed police conduct thousands of house searches in just a few months, also said over 2,000 French residents were believed to be involved with jihadi networks based in Syria and Iraq.

The Islamic State militant group that controls large parts of Iraq and Syria claimed responsibility for the Nov 13. attack on Paris, in which gunmen and suicide bombers killed 130 people and injured hundreds more.

“The terrorist threat is here, and here to last,” Valls told the National Assembly, where the government is asking lawmakers to extend the state of emergency to the end of May and amend the Constitution so people convicted on terror charges can be stripped of their citizenship.

In 2015, 15 terror plots were foiled by the French security services, he said.

At least one plot, he said, was foiled as a direct result of house searches police have been able to conduct under state of emergency rule, which allows police to conduct raids without first securing a search warrant from the judiciary.

In the three months since the attacks on Paris, police have carried out 3,289 house searches, placed 341 people in custody, put 407 under house arrest and confiscated 560 weapons, 42 of them war-grade, the prime minister said.

Half of the 2,000 people involved in some way or other with jihadist networks in Syria and Iraq had left France for that region, and 597 were still there, he said.

France is among several countries whose jets are bombing the strongholds of the Islamist State, which has declared a caliphate and vowed to carry out more attacks on France.

The ruling Socialists have taken a strong line on law and order against competition from their conservative opponents and the far-right National Front as the country approaches elections next year.

The plan to strip dual nationals of their French passport if convicted of terrorism has sparked huge controversy, deeply divided Hollande’s Socialist party and threatens to hurt his already faltering chances of winning re-election next year.

After many redraftings of the text, it is unclear if the government will manage to muster enough voted from left-wing and right-wing lawmakers to have it adopted.

(Writing by Brian Love; Editing by Andrew Callus and Tom Heneghan)

German spy agency says ISIS sending fighters disguised as refugees

BERLIN (Reuters) – Islamic State militants have slipped into Europe disguised as refugees, the head of Germany’s domestic intelligence agency (BfV) said on Friday, a day after security forces thwarted a potential IS attack in Berlin.

Hans-Georg Maassen said the terrorist attacks in Paris last November had shown that Islamic State was deliberately planting terrorists among the refugees flowing into Europe.

“Then we have repeatedly seen that terrorists … have slipped in camouflaged or disguised as refugees. This is a fact that the security agencies are facing,” Maassen told ZDF television.

“We are trying to recognize and identify whether there are still more IS fighters or terrorists from IS that have slipped in,” he added.

The Berliner Zeitung newspaper cited Maassen on Friday as saying that the BfV had received more than 100 tip-offs that there were Islamic State fighters among the refugees currently staying in Germany.

German fears about an attack have risen since the Paris killings. On Thursday, German forces arrested two men suspected of links to Islamic State militants preparing an attack in the German capital.

Authorities also canceled a friendly international soccer match in Hanover last year and closed stations in Munich at New Year due to security concerns.

Maassen, however, warned against alarm.

“We are in a serious situation and there is a high risk that there could be an attack. But the security agencies, the intelligence services and the police authorities are very alert and our goal is to minimize the risk as best we can,” he said.

(Reporting by Caroline Copley; Editing by Tom Heneghan)

ISIS committing ‘genocide’ against Christians, EU Parliament says

The European Parliament has labeled the Islamic State’s actions against Christians and other religious and ethnic groups as genocide, calling for world powers to hold the group responsible.

The parliament on Thursday adopted a resolution that states the Islamic State “is committing genocide against Christians and Yazidis, and other religious and ethnic minorities who do not agree with” its radical religious beliefs, adding the actions of the insurgency “are part of its attempts to exterminate any religious and ethnic minorities from the areas under its control.”

The resolution also accuses the Islamic State of “egregious human rights abuses, which amount to crimes against humanity and war crimes.” The genocide label carries some added weight, though, because the United Nations has adopted a treaty devoted to punishing and preventing it.

The treaty, implemented in 1948, defines genocide as certain actions “committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group.” The actions include murdering the group’s members, or inflicting serious bodily or mental harm upon them.

The parliament’s resolution calls for the United Nations Security Council to ask the International Criminal Court to launch an official investigation into the genocide allegations.

It was approved one week after the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, a group concerned with human rights, adopted a similar resolution that stated the Islamic State has “perpetrated acts of genocide and other serious crimes punishable under international law.”

Lawmakers and advocacy groups have called for the United States to declare the Islamic State’s actions as genocide, though the country has yet to take that step. Resolutions to that effect have been introduced in the House and Senate, but they have not been adopted.

The European Parliament’s resolution details several of the Islamic State’s actions against civilians, notably Christians and Yazidis, as the group captured large parts of Syria and Iraq.

The resolution states the Islamic State killed some 5,000 Yazidis and forced some 2,000 women into marriages, slavery or human trafficking. Others have been forced to convert to Islam.

The Islamic State also kidnapped more than 220 Assyrian Christians last February, according to the resolution. While some of them have since been released, the fate of most remains unknown.

The resolution charges that more than 150,000 Christians fled their homes on Aug. 6, 2014, as the Islamic State gained territory in Ninevah Province. Some of those who did not escape were captured, and the Islamic State executed some and enslaved others. The Islamic State still controls Mosul, leaving thousands of Christians displaced without any of their possessions.

According to ADF International, a religious freedom advocate, the number of Christians living in Syria and Iraq has dropped from 2.65 million to 775,000 in recent years. The organization’s director of EU advocacy, Sophia Kuby, said it welcomed the European Parliament’s resolution.

“It was high time that the EU responded to the undeniable evidence of this genocide, which includes assassinations of church leaders, torture, mass murders, kidnapping, sexual enslavement, systematic rape of Christian and Yazidi girls and women, and the destruction of churches, monasteries, and cemeteries,” Kuby said in a statement.

Last month, Open Doors USA released a report that said Christian persecution had reached “unprecedented” levels and warned that it would likely continue to increase.

The nonprofit group released a list of the top 50 countries where Christians face the most persecution. Middle Eastern countries occupied five of the top 10 spots, and Islamic extremist groups were a source of persecution in four others.

In December, the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom, an independent group that makes recommendations to the government, urged officials to designate Christians, Yazidis and other groups victims of Islamic State’s genocide.

No such declaration has been made.

“The hallmark of genocide is the intent to destroy a national, racial, ethnic, or religious group, in whole or in part,” the commission’s chairman, Robert P. George, said in a statement at the time. “ISIL’s intent to destroy religious groups that do not subscribe to its extremist ideology in the areas in Iraq and Syria that it controls, or seeks to control, is evident in, not only its barbarous acts, but also its own propaganda.”

German police conduct raids over possible Islamic State attack

BERLIN (Reuters) – German forces arrested two men on Thursday suspected of links to Islamic State militants preparing an attack in the German capital, police and prosecutors said, amid fears of another deadly attack on European soil.

Police and special forces raided four flats and two offices in Berlin and properties in the northern regions of North Rhine-Westphalia and Lower Saxony.

“Specifically (the raids) concern possible plans for an attack in Germany, even more specifically in Berlin,” Martin Steltner, a spokesman for Berlin prosecutors, told Reuters TV.

Berlin police spokesman Stefan Redlich said the authorities were investigating four Algerian men. Police detained two men and a woman.

“Our understanding is that the four men accused could have planned to carry out such an attack together,” Steltner said.

German media reported that central Berlin landmarks and tourist attractions Checkpoint Charlie and Alexanderplatz were targets.

Redlich said the Berlin suspects worked in those two locations and that searches were carried out there. But he could not confirm that they were the targets.

Redlich and Steltner said police acted on a tip-off but gave no further details.

Security agencies have been monitoring the suspects since January, Funke Media Group said. The men behaved conspiratorially, changed their mobile phones multiple times and communicated via instant messaging services, it added.

The Tagesspiegel newspaper, citing security sources, said leading members of Islamic State (IS), who were responsible for the Paris attacks that killed 130 people in November, had given the order for an attack in Germany.

Prosecutors declined to comment on the report.

‘NO SMOKING GUN’

Police seized computers, mobile telephones and sketches in the raids, Steltner said, adding “we haven’t found the smoking gun”.

A couple was arrested in North Rhine-Westphalia and another man was arrested in Berlin, Steltner said. All were detained on existing warrants related to other matters.

The man detained in North-Rhine Westphalia was arrested in a shelter for refugees and arrived a short while ago in Germany claiming to be from Syria, Steltner said.

He is wanted by Algerian authorities, who believe he is a member of Islamic State, said Steltner. He is suspected of having military training in Syria.

The status of the other men was unclear, but Redlich said the two Berlin-based suspects were not refugees.

“In Berlin, the two persons we are investigating are not refugees,” Redlich added. “Both have jobs here and have been here a long time.”

German fears about an attack have risen since the Paris killings. Authorities canceled a friendly international soccer match in Hanover last year and closed stations in Munich at New Year due to security concerns.

(Additional reporting by Madeline Chambers, Victoria Bryan and Paul Carrel in Berlin and Matthias Inverardi in Duesseldorf; Editing by Larry King and Katharine Houreld)

To silence propaganda, Iraq seeks to take Islamic State offline

DUBAI (Reuters) – Iraq is trying to persuade satellite firms to halt Internet services in areas under Islamic State’s rule, seeking to deal a major blow to the group’s potent propaganda machine which relies heavily on social media to inspire its followers to wage jihad.

Social media apps like Twitter and Telegram are scrambling to limit Islamic State’s cyber-activities. So far that has proven to be a cat-and-mouse-game, with the group re-emerging through other accounts with videos showing beheadings and extolling the virtues of living in a caliphate.

For Iraq then, the key is to stop the militant group from accessing the web at all – a feat, which if achieved, could sever a significant part of a propaganda campaign that has inspired deadly attacks in the West.

Mobile networks are largely inoperable in the Islamic State-held swathes of Iraq, areas which also have little fixed-line broadband infrastructure. Militants instead use satellite dishes to connect to the web, or illicit microwave dishes that hook them into broadband networks in government-held areas, three telecoms industry sources told Reuters.

There are many challenges for the Iraqi authorities: within the satellite Internet industry, no one assumes responsibility for identifying and vetting end users, the territory under Islamic State’s often shifts, and a complex web of middlemen makes it tough to pinpoint who is selling militants Internet capacity.

The group has control over or operates in parts of western Iraq and northern and central Syria which have a population of up to 5 million people, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, most of them in Iraq.

To connect to the web via a satellite, all that is required is a V-sat terminal – a small dish receiver and a modem – and an Internet subscription.

Islamic State uses “the V-sat system to access the Internet in areas it controls,” an Iraqi communications ministry official told Reuters. “What’s still difficult for us is controlling V-sat receivers which connect directly to satellites providing Internet services that cover Iraq.”

In the IS-held northern city of Mosul, V-sat units can be bought for about $2,000-$3,000 at a sprawling electronics market near the university.

The official said Iraq was in talks with satellite companies covering Iraq to halt Internet services to IS-controlled areas, adding that he had received “positive signals” from them, but “the process is complicated and needs more time and procedures.”

Abu Dhabi state-owned Yahsat, both a satellite owner and provider of end-user connectivity through its consumer broadband brand YahClick, is the only company so far to cooperate with the ministry’s request, the official said.

Highlighting the complicated task, Reuters traced an IP address of an Islamic State fighter in Raqqa, the group’s de facto capital in Syria, which showed he was accessing the Internet using YahClick.

Yahsat would not directly comment on whether Islamic State had used its services, but said it complied with all laws and regulations. It has no official presence in Syria.

The company, among the biggest providers of satellite Internet in Iraq, relies on local agents to sell YahClick; three are listed on its website for Iraq, but other companies also sell the brand there.

“Anybody can become a reseller. It’s very informal and wholesalers probably want to keep it that way,” said the second industry source, who like the others declined to be named because they are not authorized to speak publicly.

WHO IS RESPONSIBLE?

Satellites owners such as Britain’s Avanti, France’s Eutelsat and Yahsat cover most of the Middle East.

These sell capacity to other companies, such as Abu Dhabi’s Wafa Technical Systems and Britain’s Bentley Walker, which then use this capacity to sell services and equipment to businesses and consumers. Like Yahsat, these firms rely on in-country partners to distribute and sell their products.

“In common with all satellite operators, Avanti does not maintain identity or accurate location detail on end user customers,” a company spokesman said, adding the firm complied with all laws and regulations where it operates.

V-sat units, which are potentially portable, transmit their location and so should be traceable. But no one in the industry seems willing to take on the responsibility to vet users.

Wafa and rival Bentley Walker, who buy satellite capacity and sell V-sat units, say they are unaware of who is ultimately using their services.

Wafa, which has about 2,500 V-sat units in Iraq, said in online adverts it could deliver to any Iraqi city including Mosul. “The re-sellers are the people who know the clients and where the end users are located,” said Kamal Arjundas, assistant director at the company.

Customers of Bentley Walker can still use its services even if the V-sat unit is in an area beyond state control, said sales manager Neil Denyer. As of July last year, the firm said its service covered over 1,500 sites in northern Iraq.

The company says it is Europe’s largest re-seller of satellite Internet equipment. It sells its own FreedomSat brand and those of other companies such as YahClick.

Denyer declined to identify the company’s Iraqi partners, citing political and commercial concerns, and later did not respond when asked whether Islamic State could be using his company’s products and services.

Wafa’s Arjundas also declined to identify its Iraqi partners and did not respond when asked about the militant group.

‘TWO HOPS TO MOSUL’

Even if Iraq cuts off Islamic State from satellite Internet, the group can remain online through illegal networks set up by businessmen in towns such as Kirkuk, Arbil and Duhok.

These entrepreneurs buy data capacity from fixed broadband providers, passing through many middlemen first. They connect this to microwave dishes, which have a range of about 40 kilometers to eventually reach end users in IS-controlled areas, said the three industry sources.

“It’s two hops via microwave dishes to Mosul,” said the third industry source.

“Their activities have very little chance of being detected. If you can buy a certain amount of capacity for $100 in Arbil and sell it on for $500, it’s good business.”

Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) that rules over an autonomous area of northern Iraq have banned the sale of Internet capacity that could end up in Islamic State hands, but it is hard to enforce.

There are many microwave dishes pointing in all directions in Iraq. The vast networks that mostly provide Internet connectivity to civilian homes and businesses make it difficult to establish who is using them.

“If you close one (of the businesses) down, they reappear under another disguise in a matter of days. They’re very difficult to identify,” said the first industry source.

“It would take enormous resources, knowledge and competency which Baghdad or the KRG don’t have,” said the third source.

A moral quandary is whether IS-held areas should be denied Internet access thereby cutting off civilians living there, said Rafaello Pantucci, of Britain’s Royal United Services Institute think-tank. Some have used the Internet to relate the abuses they have suffered.

“Would cutting off such communications have a major impact in disrupting and degrading Islamic State’s operations, or would it mostly just make the lives of people living under Islamic State even more difficult?”

(Additional reporting by Ahmed Rasheed and Stephen Kalin in Baghdad and Eric Auchard; Editing by William Maclean, Yara Bayoumy and Pravin Char)

U.S. will act against Islamic State in Libya if needed, White House says

CATONSVILLE, Md. (Reuters) – U.S. President Barack Obama will continue to be updated on the risks of the spread of Islamic State to Libya, and the United States will take action in the North African country to counter that threat if necessary, the White House said on Wednesday.

“If there is a need for the United States to take unilateral action to protect the American people, the president won’t hesitate to do that,” White House spokesman Josh Earnest told reporters.

Earnest declined to comment on whether Obama had made any decisions on the possibility of sending ground troops into Libya, but said the president has “demonstrated a willingness to take decisive action,” even in Libya.

Islamic State forces have attacked Libya’s oil infrastructure and established a foothold in the city of Sirte, exploiting a power vacuum in the country where two rival governments have been battling for supremacy.

Libya’s two warring administrations are expected to form a unity government.

Earnest said the United States would support the unity government on a range of national security measures, but it was too early to say what form that assistance would take.

“The more that we can bolster the capacity of the national unity government to govern that country, the better off we will be,” he said.

(Reporting by Roberta Rampton; Editing by Mohammad Zargham and Richard Chang)

Walls and watchtowers rise as Turkey tries to seal border against Islamic State

ELBEYLI, Turkey (Reuters) – Slabs of concrete wall have sprung up and military patrols have intensified, but local people say this stretch of Turkey’s border facing Syrian territory under Islamic State control is still far from water-tight.

Ankara is under intense pressure from its NATO allies to seal off the 40-mile strip that stretches from just east of the Turkish town of Kilis to Karkamis, long a conduit for fighters, smuggled goods and war materiel.

Beyond a string of tiny villages nestled in undulating fig and olive groves lies the last stretch of Syrian territory on Turkey’s southern frontier that Islamic State militants still hold, following advances by rival Kurdish rebels.

European governments fear that their own citizens who have fought with the jihadists could still cross back into Turkey before heading home to stage attacks.

Likewise, the United States believes Turkey, which has NATO’s second largest army, must close the frontier if Islamic State is to be defeated in Syria.

Soldiers patrol in armored vehicles along a border delineated in some places by little more than razor-wire fence. Additional watchtowers and huts have appeared in recent months, and three-meter (10 foot)-high concrete slabs are being erected along some of the most vulnerable sections.

But the efforts by a nation which had long been criticized for failing to do more to prevent the passage of foreign fighters appear to have come too late to stop Islamic State networks developing inside Turkey.

Washington and Ankara have been discussing for months how to seal this stretch of border. Senior U.S. officials said last month they would offer Turkey technology including surveillance balloons and anti-tunneling equipment.

Border security is now undoubtedly tighter but, for those wanting to sneak over, not absolute – and help remains available for a price.

“It’s difficult, but not impossible,” said Ismail, a 37-year old who described himself as a trader, smoking a cigarette in a tea house near the village of Akinci.

“Let’s say you want to cross. You tell me where and when and I can call people who will make it happen,” he said. “But you would have to pay more.”

The military’s own figures suggest attempts to cross into Islamic State-held Syrian territory have continued, showing 121 people tried over the past 10 days alone. Almost half were children, and at least a dozen were foreigners.

Nevertheless, it is cracking down on those trying to spirit people over the border.

“The security is very tight now, soldiers give the smugglers no respite,” said Abbas, 51, a farmer near the Turkish border town of Elbeyli, as two soldiers carrying rifles passed by his house, walking toward their outpost a few hundred meters away.

Last year, Abbas was so alarmed by the numbers of people crossing illicitly into Syria under his nose that he emailed a government bureau, set up years ago for citizens to register complaints, queries and concerns. It receives more than a million inquiries a year and Abbas said he never heard back.

“It was literally a flood of people here,” he said, describing how some in his village made a fortune shuttling people back and forth to the border fence, often doing a dozen trips a night, until the flow largely stopped about a month ago.

Several residents in other border villages and towns confirmed security had been tightened, but emphasized that did not mean the two-way traffic had dried up.

KILLINGS IN TURKEY

Turkey launched what it called a “synchronized war on terror” last July, opening up its Incirlik air base to countries in the U.S.-led coalition bombing Islamic State. Most of its own air strikes, however, have been against Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) militants battling for Kurdish autonomy in its southeast.

Turkish tanks and artillery bombarded Islamic State positions in Syria and Iraq in the days after a suicide bomber blew himself up among groups of tourists in the heart of Istanbul last month, killing 10 Germans.

The security forces have also stepped up raids against Islamic State in cities across Turkey, detaining more than 1,000 alleged members and uncovering urban cells.

“We have never allowed Islamic State to use our territory to cross into Syria and we will not allow them … We see Islamic State as an extremely serious threat and we don’t want them on our border,” a senior government official told Reuters.

Turkey has increasingly become a target itself for the Sunni Muslim radicals. The Istanbul bombing followed a suicide attack in Ankara in October that killed more than 100 people and a bombing in the border town of Suruc last July, both of which were blamed on Islamic State fighters.

Diplomats and analysts say Ankara woke up late to the threat, allowing Islamic State to develop networks of sympathizers, a charge the government rejects.

“These networks are tapped into well-established al Qaeda networks inside Turkey … They were already there and they operated with little interference until March 2015,” Aaron Stein, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council said, nothing a marked increased in arrests thereafter.

Aside from the high-profile suicide bombings, Islamic State sympathizers have been able to carry out targeted attacks inside Turkish territory along the border in recent months.

Naji Jerf, a Syrian activist and documentary maker who made a film about Islamic State and had lived in Turkey’s southeastern city of Gaziantep since 2012, was gunned down on the street in broad daylight last December.

A couple of months earlier, two other Syrian activists who worked for Raqqa Is Being Slaughtered Silently (RBSS), a campaign group against Islamic State, were shot in the head and beheaded in the nearby city of Sanliurfa.

Jerf and the two activists had appealed to the Turkish police after they received death threats, friends and fellow activists in Istanbul and Gaziantep told Reuters.

“Naji went to the police after somebody tried to break into his car,” said his friend Manhal Bareesh, a journalist based in Gaziantep but originally from Syria’s Idlib province.

“He suspected they were trying to plant a bomb in his car. But the Turkish police wrote a report and told him not to worry,” Bareesh said.

Three people have been detained in Gaziantep in relation to Jerf’s murder, according to local media, but the killings have alarmed the Syrian immigrant community.

(Editing by Nick Tattersall and David Stamp)

Coalition aims to recapture ISIS ‘caliphate’ in Iraq, Syria

BAGHDAD (Reuters) – The U.S.-led coalition fighting Islamic State aims this year to recapture Iraq’s second city Mosul, working with Iraqi government forces, and drive the jihadis out of Raqqa, their stronghold in northeast Syria, Arab and Western officials say.

If it succeeds, the coalition will have struck a crippling blow against Islamic State’s self-proclaimed caliphate in Iraq and Syria.

The strategy is to regain territory at the heart of IS’s cross-border state, take both its “capitals”, and destroy the confidence of its fighters that it can expand as a Sunni caliphate and magnet for jihadis, according to these Arab and Western officials, few of whom were willing to speak on the record on a matter of such strategic sensitivity.

“The plan is to hit them in Raqqa in Syria and in Iraq at Mosul, to crush their capitals,” said an Iraqi official with knowledge of the strategy. “I think there is some speed and urgency by the coalition, by the U.S. administration and by us to end this year with the regaining of control over all territory.”

“Iraqi officials say 2016 will witness the elimination of Daesh (IS) and the Americans have the same idea – get the job finished, then they can withdraw and (President Barack) Obama will have a legacy,” said a diplomat in Baghdad, emphasizing the Iraqi part of the operation. “The day Mosul is liberated, Daesh will be defeated.”

The war against jihadi insurgents in this turbulent region has had its twists and turns but there is a palpable sense in Baghdad that the tide has turned against IS.

TWIN-PRONGED ANTI-IS STRATEGY

In the year after the jihadis’ summer 2014 surge back into Iraq from the bases they managed to build amid the chaos of Syria’s civil war, IS momentum as a rapid, flexible and brutal military force seemed unstoppable.

But in the past nine months IS has lost swathes of territory and strategic towns. In Iraq it was driven out of Tikrit and Sinjar in the north, the oil refinery town of Baiji in central Iraq, and Ramadi west of Baghdad in Anbar province, the heart of insurgency after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion that toppled Saddam.

In northern Syria, U.S.-allied Kurdish militia of the People’s Protection Units (YPG) have taken vital territory and border crossings below the frontier with Turkey, after breaking a long IS siege at Kobani and later taking Tel Abyad, north of Raqqa and a key supply line for the jihadi capital.

“Daesh are losing their ability to hold onto territory in Iraq and to stage the kind of complex attacks that allow them to hold the towns they seized,” said a U.S. official, adding that the recapture of Mosul would start in 2016.

Lieutenant-General Sean MacFarland, Baghdad-based head of the U.S.-led coalition, emphasized to a group of reporters last month the twin-pronged approach to operations against IS in Iraq, “in conjunction with something we might have going on over in Syria about the same time (and) see if we can put pressure on the enemy in two places at once and create a dilemma.”

Hisham al-Hashemi, an Iraqi expert on IS who advises the Iraqi government on the group, points out that as a result of last year’s setbacks “out of seven strategic roads between Iraq and Syria they (IS) now have one; they cannot move with ease and Turkey has tightened the noose on them.”

IS is under pressure across many other fronts apart from its ability to deploy. The collapse in oil prices has dented its revenue from oil smuggled, now through a less permeable Turkish border, from captured Syrian and Iraqi fields.

COVERT OPERATIONS

Coalition air strikes recently incinerated a stockpile of cash from looting and kidnapping, taxation and extortion, forcing IS to cut wages. It is losing top cadres. More than 100 mid-level to senior leaders have been killed since May, according to coalition spokesman Colonel Steve Warren, who says that “works out to an average of one every two days”.

“The place where they were holding huge cash reserves was targeted and destroyed,” the diplomat told Reuters.

“Daesh will be defeated in Iraq. It is not a question of if but when,” added another senior Western diplomat in Iraq.

A top Iraqi official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the Mosul operation would require delicate collaboration between the U.S. air force, the Iraqi army, local Sunni tribal forces, and Peshmerga fighters from the self-governing Kurdistan Regional Government east of the city.

“Most likely, coalition special forces will be embedded with the Iraqi forces and the Peshmerga will close on Mosul from the north and east.”

In Syria, he said, the likely combination would involve coalition air strikes with special forces and U.S.-led covert missions operating alongside mainly Kurdish fighters of the YPG and other Syrian rebels. “They have some special forces on the ground in Syria in Hasaka, on the outskirts of Raqqa with the rebels,” the Iraqi official said.

An airstrip at Hasaka is being prepared by the United States for this purpose.

The official warned, however, of the need for coordination with Russia, which brought its air force to Syria last September to shore up the Iran-backed rule of President Bashar al-Assad, and is using an airstrip in Qamishli further north, but focusing most of its fire on mainstream and other Islamist rebels rather than IS.

This “competition between the two superpowers is really very, very dangerous”, he said. “There must be coordination (around) the complex operations that will take place.”

LIBYA, NEW IS DESTINATION

Yet even in the unlikely event that all these plans go like clockwork, that alone would not put an end to IS.

The group, IS experts say, has become expert at defensive warfare, and is spreading its tentacles from Europe to North Africa.

Inside the recaptured city of Ramadi the Iraqi army found a warren of underground tunnels the jihadi forces used for shelter, mobility and escape. Mosul, a far bigger city with one million people and a river on one side, is heavily defended and tunneled, with berms, trenches and hidden bombs.

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the IS “caliph” still based near Mosul, has already begun to anticipate tactical reverses.

Arab and Western security sources say he has recently sent several hundred of his top lieutenants to Libya, to consolidate the existing IS bridgehead there amid the chaos of a splintering country, and to offset diminishing revenue in Syria and Iraq by creaming off Libyan oil resources.

Coalition dependence on Kurdish forces in both northern Syria and Iraq, and the Iraqi army’s reliance on Iran-backed Shi’ite militia up until the reconquest of Ramadi by regular forces, were and are being exploited by IS as a means to rally Sunni Arab grievances.

Battlefield success will count for little, officials and diplomats say, without political reconciliation and power-sharing to heal the wounds opened in the ethno-sectarian bloodletting that followed the overthrow of Saddam’s minority Sunni Arab rule in 2003.

AFTER MOSUL?

Islamic State, whose forerunner first emerged as a Sunni reaction to the U.S. installation of Shi’ite majority rule in Iraq, twisted the sectarian knife in the country.

But after the fall of Mosul, then prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, leader of the Shi’ite Islamist Dawa party, who had alienated the Sunnis by tearing up a power-sharing pact with them and the Kurds, was pushed aside. He was replaced by a more conciliatory Dawa leader, Haider al-Abadi.

Most observers give Abadi credit for trying to be more inclusive by negotiating oil revenue sharing with the Kurdistan Regional Government, proposing a National Guard, under which the different sects and ethnic groups would police their areas, and setting out a vision of a decentralized, federal Iraq.

Yet distrust of the Dawa is now so engrained it extends to Abadi. “The problem among the Shi’ites, especially in Dawa, is that there is a deep anti-Sunni feeling,” said one Iraqi leader.

But fear of a return to the Sunni domination of the Saddam era is widespread too, and fanned by IS.

“The National Guard law is rejected by the Shi’ites because the Sunnis will then have their own army and this will threaten the Shi’ite population even if they are dominant now,” said the Baghdad-based diplomat. “The Shi’ites fear the return of Sunni power.”

Yet Abadi has shown signs of independence, from his party and its Iranian patrons.

Baghdad is abuzz with the story of how the prime minister recently ejected Major General Qassem Soleimani from a national security council meeting. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander had until recently been photographed often on the frontlines in Iraq and Syria.

The critical question, however, is whether Abadi can build up the army and regular security forces enough to establish control over Shi’ite militias under the sway of Tehran, accused by Sunnis of human rights abuses when they spearheaded the attacks on Baiji, Tikrit and Diyala last year.

Even if Mosul works, Abadi will still have to move quickly to provide things his corrupt predecessors were unwilling or unable to give to Iraqi citizens in general and disgruntled Sunnis and Kurds in particular.

(Addtional reporting by Maher Chmaytelli and Stephen Kalin; editing by Janet McBride)

Kerry says ISIS pushed back in Iraq and Syria, but a threat in Libya

ROME (Reuters) – An international coalition is pushing back Islamic State militants in their Syrian and Iraqi strongholds, but the group is threatening Libya and could seize the nation’s oil wealth, U.S Secretary of State John Kerry said on Tuesday.

Officials from 23 countries met in Rome to review the fight against Islamic State militants, who have created a self-proclaimed Caliphate across swathes of Syria and Iraq, and are spreading into other countries, notably Libya.

While Western officials worry about the growing threat posed by Islamic State in the former Italian colony, there was no suggestion that foreign powers were preparing to launch a major military offensive against them there for now.

Islamic State forces have attacked Libya’s oil infrastructure and established a foothold in the city of Sirte, exploiting a power vacuum in the North African country where two rival governments have been battling for supremacy.

“That country has resources. The last thing in the world you want is a false caliphate with access to billions of dollars of oil revenue,” Kerry said.

Under a U.N.-backed plan for a political transition, Libya’s two warring administrations are expected to form a unity government, but a month after the deal was agreed in Morocco, its implementation has been dogged by in-fighting.

Kerry said the two sides were “on the brink of getting a government of national unity”. Italian Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni said once it was in place, many countries would be prepared to respond to any request for help with security.

However, Kerry said the United States was opposed to deploying any of its ground forces into Libya and French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius dismissed media speculation that Paris was poised to intervene in the oil-rich country.

“That is totally inexact,” he told reporters in Rome.

The United States is leading two different coalitions carrying out air strikes in Iraq and Syria that have targeted Islamic State, but the jihadist group has been left largely left untouched in Libya.

“We are still not at the victory that we want to achieve, and will achieve, in either Syria or Iraq and we have seen Daesh playing a game of metastasizing out to other countries, particularly Libya,” Kerry said, using a pejorative Arabic term for Islamic State.

INTERRUPTING ISLAMIC STATE

Defense ministers from the anti-IS group are due to meet in Brussels next week to discuss further options, while Kerry said he expected further consultations with allies at a security conference in Munich, Germany later this month.

While the Islamic State remained undefeated, it had suffered many setbacks, Kerry said, losing 40 percent of the territory it once controlled in Iraq and 20 percent of its lands in Iraq.

“Our advances .. are undeniable. We have launched nearly 10,000 air strikes, we have interrupted their finance mechanisms, they have had to cut the salaries of their fighters, we have interrupted their capacity to get revenues,” Kerry said.

The one-day Rome meeting took place as talks have begun in Geneva to try to end the five-year-old Syrian civil war, which has killed at least 250,000 people, driven more than 10 million from their homes and drawn in the United States and Russia on opposite sides.

While Washington has long said Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has lost the legitimacy to lead, it has made clear that its first priority is to try to rein in Islamic State group.

“If you want to beat Daesh quickly, then get a negotiated deal to end the Syria war,” Kerry said.

Tuesday’s meeting also covered stabilizing areas such as the Iraqi city of Tikrit, which has been wrested from the group, as well as broader efforts to undercut its finances, stem the flow of foreign fighters and counter its messaging, officials said.

(Additional Reporting by John Irish in Geneva; Writing by Crispian Balmer and Arshad Mohammed; editing by Ralph Boulton)

Sign up for Jim Bakker Show