Amid cries of ‘traitor,’ Canada’s Trudeau set for ugly election

Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau takes part in an interview with Maclean's journalist Paul Wells at the National Arts Centre in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, September 17, 2018. REUTERS/Chris Wattie

By David Ljunggren

OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who swept to power on a wave of optimism in 2015, is set for an ugly reelection campaign this October, judging by exchanges with voters in public town halls this month where he was grilled on topics ranging from immigration to housing affordability.

Opinion polls show his center-left Liberals are barely ahead of their rivals, and party insiders privately admit they might lose their majority in the House of Commons, which would crimp the government’s ability to govern.

“The next election is going to be a referendum on Justin Trudeau…and whether or not people think he has performed,” said Ipsos Public Affairs pollster Darrell Bricker.

In contrast to more gentle exchanges in previous years, angry citizens slammed Trudeau for bungling the construction of pipelines, breaking promises to respect the right of indigenous groups, ignoring a pledge to balance the budget and allowing too many migrants into Canada.

Liberal insiders say as a result of the feedback from the town halls, where attendees can also jot down their concerns on paper, policy tweaks are already being considered.

Public unhappiness over illegal immigrants crossing the border from the United States is so great that the party will consider a promise to clamp down further, even though Ottawa considers the matter is under control, said one top Liberal.

Widespread complaints about the lack of affordable housing are likely to produce a commitment for more spending, said the Liberal, who declined to be identified given the sensitivity of the situation.

WE HANG TRAITORS FOR TREASON

The verdict from voters is definitely mixed, judging by Trudeau’s experiences as he traveled the country in January taking questions from all-comers, a practice he says helps him break out of what he calls the Ottawa bubble.

A woman at a town hall in the province of Saskatchewan in Canada’s west, a region where the Liberals are in trouble, accused Trudeau of “working for your globalist partners” to betray Canada.

“What do we do with traitors in Canada, Mr. Trudeau?  We used to hang them, hang them for treason,” the woman told the stunned prime minister after asking him about Moslem sharia law and Saudi Arabian oil imports.

In the Quebec town of Saint-Hyacinthe, a man dressed in a yellow vest swore loudly at Trudeau and accused him of selling out the country.

Liberals like the town halls on the grounds they demonstrate Trudeau is not afraid to take tough questions.

Yet they also admit the exchanges show voters have more urgent concerns than topics such as gender equality, climate change and the aboriginal rights that Trudeau has been pushing hard at home and abroad since he took power in 2015.

“We need to focus on things that are of interest to all Canadians and not just some of them,” conceded a second Liberal.

While Trudeau has emerged as one of the world’s leading progressive leaders, at home Canadians are concentrating more on their jobs and taxes, said Bricker.

Infrastructure Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne, present in the hall at Saint-Hyacinthe as abuse was leveled at Trudeau, conceded, “There is a level of anxiety out there and we need to allow for these discussions to happen.”

But insiders say regardless of the insults, Trudeau intends to stick to his policy of avoiding public arguments.

The Liberals won a surprise victory in 2015 by mounting a massive campaign to register young and aboriginal voters and concede a similar effort will be needed this time.

The Liberals have a majority of just 11 in the 338-seat House of Commons and polls show they are only slightly ahead of the main opposition Conservative Party, led by Andrew Scheer.

“It’s going to be tight…the message to the troops is, there is no magic commercial advert that is going to win this campaign. Don’t rely on the prime minister to belt one out of the park during the debates,” said a third Liberal.

(Reporting by David Ljunggren; Editing by Alistair Bell)

Almost half of Canadians want illegal border crossers deported

A man is confronted by a Royal Canadian Mounted Police officer as he prepares to cross the U.S.-Canada border leading into Hemmingford, Quebec.

By Rod Nickel and David Ljunggren

WINNIPEG, Manitoba/OTTAWA (Reuters) – Nearly half of Canadians want to deport people who are illegally crossing into Canada from the United States, and a similar number disapprove of how Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is handling the influx, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Monday.

A significant minority, four out of 10 respondents, said the border crossers could make Canada “less safe,” underlining the potential political risk for Trudeau’s Liberal government.

The increasing flow of hundreds of asylum-seekers of African and Middle Eastern origin from the United States in recent months has become a contentious issue in Canada.

There has been broad bipartisan support for high levels of legal immigration for decades in Canada. But Trudeau has come under pressure over the flow of the illegal migrants. He is questioned about it every time he appears in parliament, from opponents on the left, who want more asylum-seekers to be allowed in, and critics on the right, who say the migrants pose a potential security risk.

Canadians appeared to be just as concerned about illegal immigration as their American neighbors, according to the poll, which was conducted between March 8-9. Some 48 percent of Canadians said they supported “increasing the deportation of people living in Canada illegally.”

When asked specifically about the recent border crossings from the United States, the same number – 48 percent – said Canada should “send these migrants back to the U.S.” Another 36 percent said Canada should “accept these migrants” and let them seek refugee status.

In the United States, where President Donald Trump was elected partly on his promise to boost deportations, 50 percent of adults supported “increasing the deportation of illegal immigrants,” according to a separate Reuters/Ipsos poll that was conducted during the same week in the United States.

Illegal migrants interviewed by Reuters in Canada said they had been living legally in the United States and had applied for asylum there. But they had fled to Canada for fear of being caught up in Trump’s immigration crackdown.

WARMING WEATHER POSES RISK

In the poll, support for deporting the border crossers was strongest among men, adults who do not have a college degree, people who are older and those with higher levels of income.

“There are so many people in the world who want to come in and go through the right channels,” said Greg Janzen, elected leader of a Manitoba border municipality that has seen hundreds of border crossers. “That’s what’s pissing most people off. These guys are jumping the border,” he said.

Forty-six percent of Canadians feel the influx would have no effect on safety, while 41 percent said it would make Canada less safe, according to the poll.

“Refugees are much more welcomed when we have gone and selected them ourselves as a country, as opposed to refugees who have chosen us,” said Janet Dench, executive director of Canadian Council for Refugees.

Of those polled, 46 percent disagreed with how Trudeau was handling the situation, 37 percent agreed, while 17 percent did not know. In January, a separate Ipsos poll found that 59 percent of Canadians approved of Trudeau, while 41 percent disapproved.

Trudeau faces no immediate threat, since the next elections are not until 2019. Trudeau’s office declined to comment on the poll, as did the opposition Conservative Party.

Brian Lee Crowley, head of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute public policy think-tank, said the number of illegal migrants could spike as the weather warms, and “if people become convinced there’s a large uncontrolled flow of illegal immigrants, I think that will be a very serious political issue for the government.”

Canadian authorities dismiss the idea they are being lax.

Dan Brien, a spokesman for Public Safety Minister Ralph Goodale, said “trying to slip across the border in an irregular manner is not a ‘free’ ticket to Canada,” noting that all asylum-seekers were detained.

“If they are found to be inadmissible without a valid claim, deportation procedures are begun,” he said by email when asked about the poll.

According to a separate Ipsos poll in Canada, 23 percent of Canadians listed immigration control as among the top national issues in March, up from 17 percent in December. It ranks behind healthcare, taxes, unemployment and poverty as top concerns.

The Canadian government set an immigration target of 300,000 for 2017, or just under 1 percent of the population, the same level as 2016. It reduced the 2017 target for resettled refugees to 25,000 from 44,800 in 2016, a year when it welcomed 25,000 refugees from Syria.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online in English and French throughout Canada. It included responses from 1,001 people who were at least 18 years old. Individual responses were weighted according to the latest population estimates in Canada, so that the results reflect the entire population.

The poll has a credibility interval, a measure of accuracy, of 4 percentage points.

(Reporting by David Ljunggren, Rod Nickel and Chris Kahn, additional reporting by Anna Mehler Paperny, editing by Amran Abocar and Ross Colvin)