Tag Archives: Russia

Oil prices fall back from one year highs hit by OPEC deal concerns

A worker checks the valve of an oil pipe at an oil field owned by Russian state-owned oil producer Bashneft near the village of Nikolo-Berezovka, northwest of Ufa, Bashkortostan, Russia

By Amanda Cooper

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil fell back from one-year highs on Tuesday, knocked by concerns that a production cut by the world’s largest exporters might not be enough to erode a two-year old global surplus of unwanted crude oil.

Oil prices jumped as much as 3 percent on Monday, after Russia and Saudi Arabia both said a deal between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC members like Russia in curbing crude output was possible.

December Brent crude oil futures were down 42 cents at $52.72 a barrel by 1100 GMT, below Monday’s one-year high at $53.73, but off an intraday low at $52.51, while U.S. futures were down 43 cents at $50.92 a barrel.

Global oil supply could fall into line more quickly with demand if OPEC and Russia agree to a steep enough cut in production, but it is unclear how rapidly this might happen, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday.

“The word I look at is ‘if’,” Saxo Bank senior manager Ole Hansen said. “OPEC’s compliance (track record) with its own limits is not good.

“What it all adds up to is an increased belief that a firm bottom has been established, but as the market moves higher the risk of self-defeat rises as it opens the door right open for the return of production growth among high-cost producers,” he said.

Igor Sechin, Russia’s most influential oil executive and the head of the Kremlin’s industry champion Rosneft, said his company will not cut or freeze oil production as part of a possible agreement with OPEC.

“Underlying scepticism that global oil producers will succeed in taking coordinated action to support prices is therefore alive and well,” PVM Oil Associates analyst Stephen Brennock said in a note.

“Meanwhile, of those that do see a chance of a genuine output deal, they still need convincing that the proposed cuts will go far enough to address the supply imbalance.”

Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients on Tuesday that despite a production cut becoming a “greater possibility”, markets were unlikely to rebalance in 2017.

“Higher production from Libya, Nigeria and Iraq are reducing the odds of such a deal rebalancing the oil market in 2017,” the U.S. bank said, and added that even if OPEC producers and Russia implemented strict cuts, higher prices would allow U.S. shale drillers to raise output.

Adding to the drag on oil, the dollar rallied to its highest in 11 weeks, lifted by rising expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise U.S. interest rates by the end of the year.

(Additional reporting by Henning Gloystein in Singapore; Editing by Louise Heavens, Greg Mahlich)

Escalation in Syria means EU less likely to soften stance on Russia

Russia's President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech during the 23rd World Energy Congress in Istanbul, Turkey,

By Gabriela Baczynska and John Irish

BRUSSELS/ PARIS (Reuters) – Outraged by Russia’s intensified air strikes on rebels in Syria, the European Union is now less likely to ease sanctions on Moscow over Ukraine, diplomats say, and some in the bloc are raising the prospect of more punitive steps against the Kremlin.

While the EU says conflicts in Syria and Ukraine need to be kept separate, the latest military offensive by Damascus and its ally Moscow on rebel-held eastern Aleppo further clouds the strained ties between Moscow and the bloc.

That weakens the hand of Italy, Hungary and others who have steadily increased pressure for easing sanctions, returning to doing business and reengaging with Moscow after first hitting it with punitive measures for annexing Crimea in March 2014.

“It’s clear that the assault on Aleppo has changed the mindset of some. It will be impossible to back an easing of sanctions on Ukraine in the current context,” said one EU foreign minister.

A French diplomatic source echoed the view, saying: “The prospect of the Russian sanctions over Ukraine being lifted are practically nil after Aleppo.”

France says the Aleppo attacks amount to war crimes and wants Syria and Russia investigated. EU and NATO officials on Monday said the Ukraine sanctions on Russia should be kept in place.

“There is just no appetite for an easing of sanctions now. Ukraine is one thing, but what is going on in Syria creates no atmosphere for any overall improvement in ties with Russia,” said one diplomat in Brussels.

EU leaders will discuss their ties with Moscow on Oct. 20-21 in Brussels. The bloc’s main economic sanctions against Russia over Ukraine are now in place until the end of January.

The sanctions include restrictions on Russia’s access to international financing, curbs on defense and energy cooperation with Moscow, a blacklist of people and entities and limitations on doing business with the Russian-annexed Crimea.

Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has long called for a substantial debate, saying that the crisis in Ukraine, where Russia backs rebels in the country’s east, must not rule out more economic cooperation.

Italy is backed by Greece, Cyprus, Slovakia and Hungary in calling for doing more business with Russia, the EU’s main gas supplier, not least to help economic growth.

“Things are going from bad to worse. No one will dare to ask for an easing. At this stage, the doves will be happy if things stay where they are,” said another diplomat in Brussels.

Russia says it will never return Crimea to Ukraine. Efforts led by Germany and France to implement a broader peace deal in east Ukraine have stalled for many months.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is due to meet some leaders of the EU and Ukraine on Oct. 19 for more talks.

Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko is expected in Brussels at the time of the 28 EU leaders’ summit and the bloc will then hold a high-level meeting with Kiev on Nov.24.

A man carries a child that survived from under debris in a site hit by what activists said were airstrikes carried out by the Russian air force in the town of Douma, eastern Ghouta in Damascus, Syria

A man carries a child that survived from under debris in a site hit by what activists said were airstrikes carried out by the Russian air force in the town of Douma, eastern Ghouta in Damascus, Syria January 10, 2016. REUTERS/Bassam Khabieh

NEW SANCTIONS SEEN A LONG SHOT

Diplomats said France was leading discussions on whether to impose new sanctions on Russia specifically over Syria, where Moscow backs President Bashar al-Assad in the five-year-old war.

Russia last week vetoed a French-drafted U.N. Security Council resolution demanding an immediate end to air strikes and military flights over Aleppo.

On Monday, EU foreign ministers will discuss the bloc’s reaction to the devastating bombings of Aleppo.

But Germany is seen as opposing new sanctions on Moscow and diplomats in Brussels cast doubt on chances for any swift move on that, saying there was no critical mass among EU states.

“But even if its is too early for the whole bloc to arrive at a common position, the sole fact that these discussions are taking place does send a signal to Russia,” one said.

(Additional reporting by Andreas Rinke in Berlin, Writing by Gabriela Baczynska, Editing by Angus MacSwan)

France to seek International Criminal Courts options for war crimes in Aleppo

Girls who survived what activists said was a ground-to-ground missile attack by forces of Syria's President Bashar al-Assad, hold hands at Aleppo's Bab al-Hadeed

By John Irish

PARIS (Reuters) – France is working to find a way for the International Criminal Court’s prosecutor to launch an investigation into war crimes it says have been committed by Syrian and Russian forces in eastern Aleppo, Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said on Monday.

Since the collapse of efforts to reach a ceasefire in September, Russian and Syrian warplanes have launched their biggest offensive on Aleppo’s besieged rebel-held sectors, in a battle that could become a turning point in the five-year-old civil war.

“These bombings – and I said it in Moscow – are war crimes,” Ayrault told France Inter radio after a French-drafted United Nations Security Council resolution on Syria was vetoed at the weekend by Russia. “It includes all those who are complicit for what’s happening in Aleppo, including Russian leaders.

“We shall contact the International Criminal Court prosecutor to see how she can launch these investigations.”

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry also called for a war crimes investigation last week.

It is unclear how the ICC could proceed given that the court has no jurisdiction for crimes in Syria because it is not a member of the ICC.

It appears the only way for the case to make it to the ICC would be through the U.N. Security Council referral, which has been deadlocked over Syria. Moscow vetoed a French resolution in May 2014 to refer the situation in Syria to the ICC.

“It is very dangerous to play with such words because war crimes also weigh on the shoulders of American officials,” said Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, according to RIA news agency.

ICC OPTIONS

A French diplomatic source acknowledged the difficulties, but said Paris had begun to comb through the ICC’s articles to see what could be done.

The source said the ICC would have jurisdiction if an alleged criminal had the citizenship of an ICC member, for example a dual Syrian-French national in the government involved in an attack. It would be the job of the relevant member state to bring a prosecution.

The source said it would also study whether the ICC could have jurisdiction if a victim of an attack had citizenship of an ICC member.

“It will be complicated, but we are looking for other solutions. Our jurists are trying to find other ways,” the source said, adding that Paris was also not ruling out a new Security Council resolution on accountability.

Ayrault said Paris would also seek separate sanctions on the Syrian government at the United Nations once a joint U.N. and Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) inquiry concludes on Oct. 21.

The inquiry has identified two Syrian Air Force helicopter squadrons and two other military units it holds responsible for chlorine gas attacks on civilians, Western diplomats have told Reuters.

The diplomatic source said a U.S.-drafted Security Council resolution on the use of chemical weapons would now be discussed, although it was vital to reach a deal with Russia.

“It would be problematic to have a veto on chemical weapons. It would be serious, but until now the Russians have been on board with regard chemical weapons,” the source said.

French officials have grappled for ways to try to put new pressure on Russia and their growing anger at events in Aleppo have led them to reconsider whether to host him on Oct. 19.

“We do not agree with what Russia is doing, bombarding Aleppo. France is committed as never before to saving the population of Aleppo,” Ayrault said.

“If the President decides (to see Putin), this will not be to trade pleasantries,” he added.

(Reporting by John Irish, Alexander Winning in Moscow and Anthony Deutsch in Amsterdam; Editing by Dominic Evans)

Russia vetoes U.N. demand for end to bombing of Syria’s Aleppo

Smoke rises from Bustan al-Basha neighborhood of Aleppo, Syria,

By Michelle Nichols

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) – Russia vetoed a French-drafted U.N. Security Council resolution on Saturday that would have demanded an end to air strikes and military flights over Syria’s city of Aleppo, while a rival Russian draft text failed to get a minimum nine votes in favor.

Moscow’s text was effectively the French draft with Russian amendments. It removed the demand for an end to air strikes on Aleppo and put the focus back on a failed Sept. 9 U.S./Russia ceasefire deal, which was annexed to the draft.

British U.N. Ambassador Matthew Rycroft told Russian U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin: “Thanks to your actions today, Syrians will continue to lose their lives in Aleppo and beyond to Russian and Syrian bombing. Please stop now.”

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, backed by Russian war planes and Iranian support, have been battling to capture eastern Aleppo, the rebel-held half of Syria’s largest city, where more than 250,000 civilians are trapped.

“Russia has become one of the chief purveyors of terror in Aleppo, using tactics more commonly associated with thugs than governments,” U.S. Deputy Ambassador to the United Nations David Pressman told the council.

He said Russia was “intent on allowing the killing to continue and, indeed, participating in carrying it out” and that what was needed from Moscow was “less talk and more action from them to stop the slaughter.”

A U.N. resolution needs nine votes in favor and no vetoes to be adopted. The veto powers are the United States, France, Britain, Russia and China. The Russian text only received four votes in favor, so a veto was not needed to block it.

The French draft received 11 votes in favor, while China and Angola abstained. Venezuela joined Russia in voting against it.

It was the fifth time Russia has used its veto on a U.N. resolution on Syria during the more than five-year conflict.

The previous four times China backed Moscow in protecting Syria’s government from council action, including vetoing a bid to refer the situation in Syria to the International Criminal Court. China voted in favor of Russia’s draft on Saturday.

‘STRANGE SPECTACLE’

China’s U.N. Ambassador Liu Jieyi said some of the content of the French draft “does not reflect the full respect for the sovereignty, independence, unification and territorial integrity of Syria,” while the content of the Russian draft did.

“We regret that the (Russian draft) resolution was not adopted,” he told the council.

Russia only gained the support of China, Venezuela and Egypt for its draft resolution. Angola and Uruguay abstained, while the remaining nine council members voted against.

Churkin, who is council president for October, described the dual votes on Saturday as one of the “strangest spectacles in the history of the Security Council.”

“Given that the crisis in Syria is at a critical stage, when it is particularly important that there be a coordination of the political efforts of the international community, this waste of time is inadmissible,” Churkin told the council.

Syrian government forces recaptured territory from insurgents in several western areas on Saturday.

Both the French and Russian U.N. draft resolutions called for a truce and humanitarian aid access throughout Syria.

“If we don’t so something this town (Aleppo) will soon just be in ruins and will remain in history as a town in which the inhabitants were abandoned to their executioners,” French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said. “If the international community does not wake up it will share the responsibility.”

The council negotiated for a week on the text drafted by France. Russia circulated its own draft on Friday and said it would be put to a vote after the French text on Saturday.

Angola’s U.N. Ambassador Ismael Gaspar Martins said his country abstained on both votes because it did not want to be drawn into the acrimony between the United States and Russia.

The United States on Monday suspended talks with Russia on implementing a ceasefire deal in Syria, accusing Moscow of not living up to its commitments to halt fighting and ensure aid reached besieged communities.

A crackdown by Assad on pro-democracy protesters in 2011 sparked a civil war and Islamic State militants have used the chaos to seize territory in Syria and Iraq. Half of Syria’s 22 million people have been uprooted and more than 400,000 killed.

(Reporting by Michelle Nichols; Editing by James Dalgleish and Bernard Orr)

Exclusive: Russia builds up forces in Syria, Reuters data analysis shows

The Russian Navy's missile corvette Mirazh sails in the Bosphorus, on its way to the Mediterranean Sea, in Istanbul, Turkey,

By Jack Stubbs and Maria Tsvetkova

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia has built up its forces in Syria since a ceasefire collapsed in late September, sending in troops, planes and advanced missile systems, a Reuters analysis of publicly available tracking data shows.

The data points to a doubling of supply runs by air and sea compared to the nearly two-week period preceding the truce. It appears to be Russia’s biggest military deployment to Syria since President Vladimir Putin said in March he would pull out some of his country’s forces.

The increased manpower probably includes specialists to put into operation a newly delivered S-300 surface-to-air missile system, military analysts said.

The S-300 system will improve Russia’s ability to control air space in Syria, where Moscow’s forces support the government of President Bashar al-Assad, and could be aimed at deterring tougher U.S. action, they said.

“The S-300 basically gives Russia the ability to declare a no-fly zone over Syria,” said Justin Bronk, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London.

“It also makes any U.S. attempt to do so impossible. Russia can just say: ‘We’re going to continue to fly and anything that tries to threaten our aircraft will be seen as hostile and destroyed’.”

Russia’s Defence Ministry did not respond to written questions. A senior air force official, speaking on condition of anonymity, dismissed talk of an increase in supply shipments.

But data collated by Turkish bloggers for their online Bosphorus Naval News project, and reviewed by Reuters, shows reinforcements sent via Russia’s “Syrian Express” shipping route from the Black Sea increased throughout September and have peaked in the last week.

The data shows 10 Russian navy ships have gone through the Bosphorus en route to Syria since late September, compared with five in the 13-day period before the truce — from Aug. 27 to Sept. 7.

That number includes The Mirazh, a small missile ship which a Reuters correspondent saw heading through the Bosphorus toward the Mediterranean on Friday.

Two other Russian missile ships were deployed to the Mediterranean on Wednesday.

Some of the ships that have been sent to Syria were so heavily laden the load line was barely visible above the water, and have docked at Russia’s Tartus naval base in the Western Syrian province of Latakia. Reuters has not been able to establish what cargo they were carrying.

Troops and equipment are also returning to Syria by air, according to tracking data on website FlightRadar24.com.

Russian military cargo planes flew to Russia’s Hmeymim airbase in Syria six times in the first six days of October — compared to 12 a month in September and August, a Reuters analysis of the data shows.

INCREASED ACRIMONY

Russia sent its air force to support the Syrian Army a year ago when Moscow feared Assad was on the point of succumbing to rebel offensives. U.S.-led forces also carry out air strikes in Syria, targeting Islamic State positions.

Aerial bombardments in the past two weeks, mainly against rebel-held areas in the Syrian city of Aleppo, have been among the heaviest of the civil war, which has killed more then 300,000 people in 5-1/2 years.

Since the collapse of the ceasefire in September, acrimony between the United States and Russia has grown and Washington has suspended talks with Moscow on implementing the truce.

U.S. officials told Reuters on Sept. 28 that Washington had started considering tougher responses to the assault on Aleppo, including the possibility of air strikes on an Assad air base.

“They (Russia) probably correctly surmise that eventually American policy will change,” Bronk said, commenting on the analysis of the tracking data.

“They are thinking: ‘We’re going to have to do something about this, so better to bring in more supplies now … before it potentially becomes too touchy’.”

The FlightRadar24.com data shows Ilyushin Il-76 and Antonov An-124 cargo planes operated by the Russian military have been flying to Syria multiple times each month. It offers no indication of what the aircraft are carrying.

But the Il-76 and An-124 transporters can carry up to 50 and 150 tonnes of equipment respectively and have previously been used to airlift heavy vehicles and helicopters to Syria.

State-operated passenger planes have also made between six and eight flights from Moscow to Latakia each month. Western officials say they have been used to fly in troops, support workers and engineers.

Twice in early October, a Russian military Ilyushin plane flew to Syria from Armenia. Officials in Yerevan said the planes carried humanitarian aid from Armenia, a Russian ally.

Russia’s Izvestia newspaper reported last week that a group of Su-24 and Su-34 warplanes had arrived at the Hmeymim base in Syria, returning Russia’s fixed-wing numbers in the country to near the level before the drawdown was announced in March.

(Additional reporting by Hasmik Mkrtchyan in Yerevan and Murad Sezer in Istanbul, Writing by Jack Stubbs, Editing by Christian Lowe and Timothy Heritage)

Russia under pressure to stop devastating Aleppo bombardment

An over-crowded graveyard is pictured in the rebel held al-Shaar neighbourhood of Aleppo

By Jack Stubbs and John Davison

MOSCOW/BEIRUT (Reuters) – Russia said on Friday a draft U.N. resolution demanding an end to air strikes and military flights over the Syrian city of Aleppo was unacceptable, as Moscow faced growing international pressure to stop a devastating bombardment of the city backed by Russian air power.

Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov said a draft put forward by France contained a number of unacceptable points and politicized the issue of humanitarian aid.

But Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Russia would support an eye-catching proposal by U.N. Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura to escort militants out of Aleppo personally.

Russia was ready to call on the Syrian government to allow fighters from the Islamist Nusra Front to leave the city with their weapons, Lavrov said.

Lavrov was speaking a day after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad offered fighters and their families amnesty to leave rebel-held eastern Aleppo under guarantee of safe passage to other parts of Syria held by the insurgents.

However, rebels have told Reuters they do not trust Assad, and have said they believe such an agreement would be aimed at purging Sunni Muslims from eastern Aleppo.

The offer follows two weeks of the heaviest bombardment of the 5-1/2-year civil war, which has killed hundreds of people trapped inside Aleppo’s eastern sector and torpedoed a U.S.-backed peace initiative.

More than 250,000 people are believed to be trapped in eastern Aleppo, facing severe shortages of food and medicine.

The war has already killed hundreds of thousands, made half of Syrians homeless, dragged in global and regional powers and left swathes of the country in the hands of jihadists from Islamic State who have carried out attacks around the globe.

The United States and Russia are both fighting against Islamic State but are on opposite sides in the wider civil war, with Moscow fighting to protect Assad and Washington supporting rebels against him.

“ATROCIOUS CRIMES”

German Chancellor Angela Merkel urged Russia to use its influence with the Syrian government to end the bombardment of Aleppo, as her government opened the door to possible sanctions against Russia for its role in the conflict.

Merkel said there was no basis in international law for bombing hospitals and Moscow should use its influence with Assad to end the bombing of civilians.

“Russia has a lot of influence on Assad. We must end these atrocious crimes,” Merkel told an audience of party members in Germany.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Russian and Syrian actions such as bombing hospitals in Syria cried out for a war crimes investigation.

“Last night, the (Syrian) regime attacked yet another hospital and 20 people were killed and 100 people were wounded. Russia, and the regime, owe the world more than an explanation about why they keep hitting hospitals and medical facilities and children and women,” Kerry told reporters in Washington.

“These are acts that beg for an appropriate investigation of war crimes and those who commit these would and should be held accountable for these actions.”

Russia said the call for an investigation was an attempt to distract from the failure of a U.S.-Russia brokered ceasefire, according to Tass news agency.

“It is very dangerous to play with such words because war crimes also weigh on the shoulders of American officials,” said Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, according to RIA news agency.

Russia and Syria accuse the United States of supporting terrorists by backing rebel groups. The Syrian and Russian governments say they target only militants.

Russia has built up its forces in Syria since the ceasefire collapsed, sending in troops, planes and advanced missile systems, a Reuters analysis of publicly available tracking data shows.

The U.N. Security Council was expected to vote on Saturday on a draft resolution that calls for an immediate truce throughout Syria and access for humanitarian aid. It also “demands that all parties immediately end all aerial bombardments of and military flights over Aleppo city.”

French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault, speaking through an interpreter as he and Kerry spoke to reporters before they met at the State Department in Washington said:

“Tomorrow, will be a moment of truth – a moment of truth for all the members of the Security Council. Do you, yes or no, want a ceasefire in Aleppo? And the question is in particular for our Russian partners.”

Russia is expected to use its power of veto. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told Interfax news agency Moscow had hoped talks with Ayrault, who was in Moscow earlier this week, “would help to find a way forward”.

“Instead of that, in New York we now have an attempt at political blackmail by putting to the vote, possibly tomorrow, a French resolution on the Syria crisis which is unacceptable for us.”

ALEPPO FIGHTING

The Syrian army and its allies clashed on Friday in the south of Aleppo with rebels seeking to oust Assad, part of a pro-government offensive to retake the city.

The fighting was concentrated in Sheikh Saeed, a rebel-held district of the city next to Ramousah, where the most intense battles this summer took place, but there were conflicting accounts of whether the army made any gains.

Air strikes on rebel-held eastern Aleppo by the Syrian military and Russian jets remained significantly lighter than during the previous two weeks following an army announcement on Wednesday that it would lessen its bombardment.

“Today there’s no bombardment on the neighborhoods in the city, until now. We don’t know what will happen in an hour,” said Ammar al-Selmo, head of the civil defense rescue organization in Aleppo.

A Syrian military source said the army had captured several important positions on Sheikh Saeed’s hilltop, but rebels said later those gains had been reversed and that insurgents still held the area.

Later in the day a number of air strikes hit areas of Sheikh Saeed, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group reported. Syrian state TV meanwhile reported that rebel shelling of government-held neighborhoods killed four people and wounded many more. The Observatory said insurgent shelling had killed 15 people in Aleppo over the past 24 hours.

The Observatory said that according to its own tallies, thousands of people had been killed in Russian air strikes over the past year, a significant number of them civilians.

Since the start of an offensive two weeks ago, following the collapse of a short ceasefire, the army and its allies have made some progress in northern and central districts of rebel-held eastern Aleppo.

However, to completely storm eastern Aleppo could take months and would involve the destruction of the city and great loss of life, de Mistura said on Thursday.

(Additonal reporting by Arshad Mohammed in Washington, Michelle Nichols at the United Nations and Angus McDowall in Beirut; Writing by Giles Elgood; Editing by Bernard Orr and James Dalgleish)

Philippines’ defense minister says military can cope without U.S. aid

U.S. military forces cross a flooded area near the shore during the annual Philippines-US amphibious landing exercise (PHIBLEX) at San Antonio, Zambales province, Philippines

MANILA (Reuters) – U.S.-Philippines ties are going through “bumps on the road” and the Philippine military could manage if treaty ally the United States were to withdraw aid, the defense minister said on Friday.

The Philippines intended to buy arms from China and Russia and there had been no adverse reaction from within the military to President Rodrigo Duterte’s vows to scale back defense ties with the United States, Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said.

Lorenzana’s remarks suggested he was following other top officials in Duterte’s administration in rallying behind the maverick president’s tough anti-U.S. agenda after weeks of scrambling to manage the fallout from his outbursts and threats to downgrade the alliance.

Lorenzana had on Wednesday set a conciliatory tone, saying Duterte may have been misinformed when he said U.S.-Philippine military exercises were no benefit to his country.

But on Friday Lorenzana said the value of U.S. military aid to the Philippines was “not that much”, and the military could ask Congress to make up for a shortfall of some $50 million-$100 million a year in U.S. military aid.

“We can live without (that),” Lorenzana told a foreign correspondents’ forum.

Duterte, well known for a ruthless stand against crime from his years as mayor of a southern city, won election in May on a promise to wipe out drugs and drug dealers.

Some 3,600 people have been killed in his anti-drugs drive and he has been enraged by questions about human rights, from the United States and others, that the bloodshed has raised.

Duterte said on Thursday if the United States and European Union objected to his drugs war and wished to withdraw aid, they should do so, and the Philippines would not beg.

U.S. State Department spokesman John Kirby responded to that saying total U.S. assistance to the Philippines in the fiscal year that began on Oct. 1 was $180 million “and we’re committed” to delivering that.

‘NOT TOO DEPENDENT’

Lorenzana said he believed Duterte’s objective was to diversify Philippines’ foreign ties and cut dependency on former colonial ruler the United States.

“The president is trying to develop a relationship with the U.S. that is not too dependent on one country,” he said.

Duterte has caused a diplomatic storm by declaring that joint U.S.-Philippines military exercises would cease, a defense agreement would be reviewed and, at an undisclosed time, he might “break up” with the United States.

On Monday, Duterte said U.S. President Barack Obama should “go to hell”.

Lorenzana said there had been no official directive to scrap a two-year-old Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement. He said the uncertainty in the U.S.-Philippines relationship was “just going through these bumps on the road”.

“Maybe we should re-assess (the relationship),” he said. “Are we benefiting, are we getting what we should be getting from alliance? It is part of this growing up.”

He said Duterte was sensitive to concerns about his drugs war and it was likely the president would dial down his rhetoric if questions from the West about human rights stopped.

Asked how changes in the security relationship could impact a strategic U.S. “rebalance” to Asia, he said: “They are not lacking of any place to park their ships if they are no longer allowed to park their ships here.”

He said there may be some issues of compatibility with defense procurements from Russia and China, which were willing to sell to the Philippines.

A Philippine dispute with China over sovereignty in the South China Sea would not impede defense procurements, he said, adding there had been no discussion of the two countries working together militarily.

“All we are thinking now is buying equipment,” he said. “No talks yet about military alliance. Just simple transaction of buying equipment.”

Lorenzana’s show of accord with Duterte’s anti-U.S. stand follows a similar tough line from Foreign Affairs Secretary Perfecto Yasay who said this week Duterte wanted to liberate the country from a “shackling dependency” on the United States.

Yasay said the president was “compelled to realign” Philippine foreign policy and not submit to U.S. demands and interests.

(Reporting by Neil Jerome Morales; Writing by Martin Petty; Editing by Robert Birsel)

Estonia, Finland say Russia entered airspace before U.S. defense pact

Picture of Russian SU-27 fighter violating Finland's airspace near Porvoo, Finland,

By Tuomas Forsell and Jussi Rosendahl

HELSINKI (Reuters) – Estonia said a Russian jet violated its airspace on Friday, hours after neighboring Finland said two similar planes passed over its territory as it prepared to sign a defense pact with the United States.

Moscow denied sending planes across anyone’s borders – but one analyst said the flights could have been staged as a reminder of Russia’s influence, as countries in the region looked to strengthen ties with the West.

Estonia’s defense ministry said a Russian fighter jet entered its airspace for less than a minute with its transponder turned off at 2.38 a.m. (7.38 p.m. ET, Thursday).

Helsinki said two different SU-27 planes crossed into its airspace on Thursday afternoon and evening, over the Gulf of Finland – the body of water that separates it from Estonia.

“We take these incidents seriously,” Finland’s defense minister, Jussi Niinisto, told reporters. “Having two suspected violations on the same day is exceptional.”

Russia’s defense ministry dismissed the reports, saying SU-27 military planes had conducted training flights on Thursday and Friday over neutral waters, Russian agencies reported.

Finland has grown increasingly worried about military activities by Russia – its former ruler with which it shares a 1,300-km (812-mile) land border – particularly since Moscow’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea region.

In response, Finland has tightened cooperation with Sweden and fostered closer ties with NATO. On Friday it signed a defense cooperation deal with the United States, covering training and information sharing but stopping short of military assistance.

“It’s positive that United States is interested in Northern Europe’s security situation and of collaboration with the region’s countries. We see this as a stabilizing element,” Niinisto said.

He declined to speculate on whether Russia had tried to show its power before his meeting with U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defence Robert Work.

But Charly Salonius-Pasternak, analyst at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, said it was “entirely credible, that airspace violations were a reminder from Russia: ‘Hey, we are still here’.”

“It costs them nothing, and they can see that these violations have an effect on Finland,” he told public broadcaster YLE.

In April, two Russian warplanes flew simulated attack passes near a U.S. guided missile destroyer in the Baltic Sea.

(Additional reporting by Jack Stubbs and Dmitry Solovyov in Moscow, editing by Richard Balmforth)

Assad offers rebels amnesty if they surrender Aleppo

Syria's President Bashar al-Assad speaks during an interview with Denmark's TV 2, in this handout picture provided by SANA on October 6, 2016.

By Ellen Francis and Tom Miles

BEIRUT/GENEVA (Reuters) – Rebels holed up in Aleppo can leave with their families if they lay down their arms, President Bashar al-Assad said on Thursday, vowing to press on with the assault on Syria’s largest city and recapture full control of the country.

The offer of amnesty follows two weeks of the heaviest bombardment of the five-and-a-half-year civil war, which has killed hundreds of people trapped inside Aleppo’s rebel-held eastern sector and torpedoed a U.S.-backed peace initiative.

Fighters have accepted similar government amnesty offers in other besieged areas in recent months, notably in Daraya, a suburb of Damascus that was under siege for years until rebels surrendered it in August.

However, rebels said they had no plan to evacuate Aleppo, the last major urban area they control, and denounced the amnesty offer as a deception.

“It’s impossible for the rebel groups to leave Aleppo because this would be a trick by the regime,” Zakaria Malahifji, a Turkey-based official for the Fastaqim group which is present in Aleppo, told Reuters. “Aleppo is not like other areas, it’s not possible for them to surrender.”

Washington was also skeptical of government motives: “For them to suggest that somehow they’re now looking out for the interests of civilians is outrageous,” White House spokesman Josh Earnest said, citing the heavy civilian toll from air strikes and bombardment.

The army announced a reduction in shelling and air strikes on Wednesday to allow people to leave. It backed that up with an ultimatum: “All those who do not take advantage of the provided opportunity to lay down their arms or to leave will face their inevitable fate.”

The government also sent text messages to the mobile phones of some of those people trapped in the besieged sector, telling them to repudiate fighters in their midst. More than 250,000 people are believed to be trapped inside rebel-held eastern Aleppo, facing dire shortages of food and medicine.

Speaking to Danish television, Assad said he would “continue the fight with the rebels till they leave Aleppo. They have to. There’s no other option.”

He said that he wanted rebels to accept a deal to leave the city along with their families and travel to other rebel-held areas, as in Daraya. Neither Assad nor his generals gave a timeline for rebels to accept their offer.

Washington accuses Moscow and Damascus of war crimes for intentionally targeting civilians, aid deliveries and hospitals to break the will of those trapped in the besieged city. Russia and Syria accuse the United States of supporting terrorists by backing rebel groups.

The war has already killed hundreds of thousands, made half of Syrians homeless, dragged in global and regional powers and left swathes of the country in the hands of jihadists from Islamic State who have carried out attacks around the globe.

The United States and Russia are both fighting against Islamic State but are on opposite sides in the wider civil war, with Moscow fighting to protect Assad and Washington supporting rebels against him.

Storming Aleppo’s rebel-held zone, which includes big parts of the densely populated Old City, could take months and cause a bloodbath, the U.N. Syria envoy warned on Thursday.

“The bottom line is in a maximum of two months, two and a half months, the city of eastern Aleppo at this rate may be totally destroyed,” said Staffan de Mistura, invoking the 1990s atrocities of the Rwandan genocide and Yugolsavia’s civil war.

LIGHTER BOMBARDMENT

Residents of eastern Aleppo said the aerial bombardment was significantly lighter overnight and on Thursday after the government’s statement, but they said heavy fighting continued on the frontlines and people were afraid.

The army and its allies, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and Shi’ite militias from Iraq and Lebanon backed by Russian air power, seized half of the Bustan al-Basha quarter of Aleppo, north of the Old City on Thursday, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a war monitor, reported.

“The bombardment decreased a lot in the eastern districts, but there’s a sense of foreboding… people are still scared. And because there’s still the siege, there’s nothing at all in the shops,” said Ibrahim Abu al-Laith, a Civil Defence official in eastern Aleppo.

Amir, a resident of the rebel-held district who did not want to be identified with his family name, said it was true that air strikes had diminished, but that he had not yet seen any way for civilians to leave the area. “It’s not true that there are safe crossings,” he said.

Residents in eastern Aleppo forwarded to Reuters text messages they said had been sent by their telecom provider carrying a government urging them to distance themselves from rebels and warning that they should depart.

“Our people in Aleppo: save your lives by rejecting the terrorists and isolating them from you,” read one message. “Our dear people in the eastern districts of Aleppo! Come out to meet your brothers and sisters,” read another.

Meanwhile, rebels continued the shelling of residential areas of government-held western Aleppo, where dozens of people have also been killed since the end of a ceasefire two weeks ago. The Observatory said 10 people were killed 52 wounded in government-held areas of Aleppo city by rebels on Thursday.

The government-held western districts of the city are still home to more than 1.5 million civilians who face far less daily danger than in rebel-held areas. Video footage obtained by Reuters showed people in the city enjoying a night club in the Seryan district, while war rages in the east.

MILITANT GROUP

Russia says it is targeting the Nusra Front, al Qaeda’s Syrian branch which changed its name in July and says it broke ties with the network founded by Osama bin Laden.

The U.N. envoy De Mistura on Thursday urged Moscow and Damascus to accept a deal under which the fighters of that group would leave the city, while other insurgents and civilians would be allowed to remain.

He said there were fewer than 1,000 members of the hardline Islamist group inside Aleppo, part of a contingent of around 8,000 rebel fighters, and offered to lead them out of the city himself to guarantee their safety.

Russian presidential envoy Mikhail Bogdanov said it was “high time” such an offer was made, but it was not immediately clear if Moscow was also willing to stop the bombing.

Distinguishing between fighters from the former Nusra Front and other groups has been difficult in the past, including during the week-long ceasefire which collapsed last month when the army launched its offensive.

Russia accused the United States of failing to ensure that other rebels separated themselves from Nusra, which Moscow and Washington both regard as a terrorist group excluded from the ceasefire.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Paris on Oct. 19 to discuss Syria with his French counterpart Francois Hollande, the only diplomatic track still active over efforts to bring peace to the country.

In his Danish TV interview, Assad accused Washington of using Nusra as a proxy, and said this was why the ceasefire had collapsed.

“It’s an American card. Without al-Nusra, the Americans cannot have any real, let’s say, concrete and effective card in the Syrian arena,” he said.

(Additional reporting by Doina Chiacu in Washington, John Irish in Paris and Dmitry Solovyov in Moscow; writing by Angus McDowall; editing by Peter Graff)

France makes new push for Aleppo ceasefire

The sun sets over Aleppo as seen from rebel-held part of the city

By John Irish, Lidia Kelly and Angus McDowall

PARIS/MOSCOW/BEIRUT (Reuters) – France is to launch a new push for United Nations backing for a ceasefire in Syria that would allow aid into the city of Aleppo after some of the heaviest bombing of the war.

As diplomatic efforts resumed, the Syrian military said army commanders had decided to scale back air strikes and shelling in Aleppo to alleviate the humanitarian situation there.

It said civilians in rebel-held eastern Aleppo were being used as human shields and a reduced level of bombardment would allow people to leave for safer areas.

Intense Syrian and Russian bombing of rebel-held areas of the northern city of Aleppo followed the collapse last month of a ceasefire brokered by Moscow and Washington, which backs some rebel groups. The United States broke off talks with Russia on Monday, accusing it of breaking its commitments.

France said Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault would travel to Russia and the United States on Thursday and Friday to try to persuade both sides to adopt a Security Council resolution to impose a new truce.

Ayrault has accused Syria, backed by Russia and Iran, of war crimes as part of an “all-out war” on its people. Damascus rejects the accusation, saying it is only fighting terrorists.

Speaking to French television channel LCI, Ayrault said: “If you’re complicit in war crimes then one day you will be held accountable, including legally. I think with the Russians you have to speak the truth and not try to please them.”

The former prime minister said he would also ask Washington to be “more efficient and engaged” and not allow a laissez-faire attitude to take over just because presidential elections were approaching in November.

“ALL THAT’S LEFT”

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry discussed Syria by telephone on Wednesday, but no details emerged. The Russian Foreign Ministry confirmed that Lavrov would meet Ayrault in Moscow on Thursday.

The two-week-old Russian-backed Syrian government offensive aims to capture eastern Aleppo and crush the last urban stronghold of a revolt against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad that began in 2011.

Half of the estimated 275,000 Syrians besieged in the rebel-held eastern part of the city want to leave, the United Nations said, with food supplies running short and people driven to burning plastic for fuel.

Mothers were reportedly tying ropes around their stomachs or drinking large amounts of water to reduce the feeling of hunger and prioritise food for their children, the U.N. Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said in Geneva.

The Security Council began negotiations on Monday on a French and Spanish draft resolution that urges Russia and the United States to ensure an immediate truce in Aleppo and to “put an end to all military flights over the city”.

“This trip is in the framework of efforts by France to get a resolution adopted at the U.N. Security Council opening the path for a ceasefire in Aleppo and aid access for populations that need it so much,” the French foreign ministry said.

Russian U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin said on Monday that Moscow was engaged in discussions on the draft text even if he was not especially enthusiastic about its language.

The draft text, seen by Reuters, urges Russia and the United States “to ensure the immediate implementation of the cessation of hostilities, starting with Aleppo, and, to that effect, to put an end to all military flights over the city.”

The draft also asks U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon to propose options for U.N.-supervised monitoring of a truce and threatens to “take further measures” in the event of non-compliance by “any party to the Syrian domestic conflict”.

A senior Security Council diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said: “In the experts’ negotiations they (Russia) have opposed every single dot and comma of the resolution.”

French officials have said that if Moscow were to oppose the resolution they would be ready to put it forward anyway to force Moscow into a veto, underscoring its complicity with the Syrian government.

“It’s all that’s left,” said a French diplomatic source. “We’re not fools. The Russians aren’t going to begin respecting human rights from one day to the next, but it’s all we have to put pressure on them.”

People walk past damaged buildings in the rebel-held Tariq al-Bab neighbourhood of Aleppo, Syria,

People walk past damaged buildings in the rebel-held Tariq al-Bab neighbourhood of Aleppo, Syria, October 5, 2016. To match Insight MIDEAST-CRISIS/SYRIA-ALEPPO REUTERS/Abdalrhman Ismail

GULF STATES

Ayrault said in the television interview that the situation was unacceptable. “It is deeply shocking and shameful,” he said. “France will not close its eyes and do nothing. It’s cynicism that fools nobody.”

The collapse of the latest Syria ceasefire has heightened the possibility that Gulf states including Saudi Arabia and Qatar – backers of Syrian rebels – might arm the opposition with shoulder-fired missiles to defend themselves against Syrian and Russian warplanes, U.S. officials have said.

Qatar’s foreign minister said outside powers need to act fast to protect Syrians because foreign military backing for the government is “changing the equation” of the war.

A United Nations expert said that analysis of satellite imagery of a deadly and disputed attack on an aid convoy in Syria last month showed that it was an air strike.

Some 20 people were killed in the attack on the U.N. and Syrian Arab Red Crescent convoy at Urem Al-Kubra near Aleppo.

The United States blamed two Russian warplanes which it said were in the skies above the area at the time of the incident. Moscow denies this and says the convoy caught fire.

“With our analysis we determined it was an air strike and I think multiple other sources have said that as well,” Lars Bromley, research adviser at UNOSAT, told a news briefing.

In northern Syria, rebels were expecting stiff resistance from Islamic State in their attempt to capture a village that is of great symbolic significance to the jihadists, a rebel commander said.

With Turkish backing, rebels fighting under the Free Syrian Army banner have advanced to within a few kilometres (miles) of Dabiq, the site of an apocalyptic prophecy central to the militant group’s ideology.

(Writing by Giles Elgood and Philippa Fletcher, editing by Peter Millership)