The Jim Bakker Show

Suicide bombers hit three Saudi cities

Muslim worshippers gather after a suicide bomber detonated a device near the security headquarters of the Prophet's Mosque in Medina

By Angus McDowall

RIYADH (Reuters) – Suicide bombers struck three cities across Saudi Arabia on Monday, in an apparently coordinated campaign of attacks as Saudis prepared to break their fast on the penultimate day of the holy month of Ramadan.

The explosions targeting U.S. diplomats, Shi’ite worshippers and a security headquarters at a mosque in the holy city of Medina follow days of mass killings claimed by the Islamic State group, in Turkey, Bangladesh and Iraq. The attacks all seem to have been timed to coincide with the approach of Eid al-Fitr, the holiday that celebrates the end of the fast.

A Saudi security official said an attacker parked a car near the U.S. consulate in Jeddah before detonating the device. The official said the government was checking the reports of blasts in Qatif and Medina.

In the only one of the three attacks that appeared to have caused many casualties, a suicide bomber detonated a bomb near the security headquarters of the Prophet’s Mosque in Medina, the second-holiest site in Islam.

Saudi-owned al-Arabiya television said an initial death toll from the Medina blast included three suicide bombers and two security forces officers.

A video sent to Reuters by a witness to the aftermath of the Medina bombing showed a large blaze among parked cars in the fading evening light, with a sound of sirens in the background. A picture sent to Reuters showed a burnt and bleeding man lying on a stretcher in a hospital.

Other pictures circulating on social media showed dark smoke billowing from flames near the Mosque of the Prophet, originally built in the 7th century by the Prophet Muhammad, who is buried there along with his first two successors.

In Qatif, an eastern city that is home to many members of the Shi’ite minority, at least one and possibly two explosions struck near a Shi’ite mosque.

Witnesses described body parts, apparently of a suicide bomber, in the aftermath.

A resident of the city reached by telephone said there were believed to be no casualties there apart from the attacker, as worshippers had already gone home to break their fasts. Civil defense forces were cleaning up the area and police were investigating, the resident said.

A video circulating on social media and purporting to show the aftermath of a Qatif blast showed an agitated crowd on a street, with a fire raging near a building, and a bloody body part lying on the ground. Reuters could not immediately verify the video.

Hours earlier a suicide bomber was killed and two people were wounded in a blast near the U.S. consulate in the kingdom’s second city Jeddah.

The Jeddah blast was the first bombing in years to attempt to target foreigners in the kingdom. There was no immediate claim of responsibility.

Islamic State has carried out a series of bombing and shooting attacks in Saudi Arabia since mid-2014 that have killed scores of people, mostly members of the Shi’ite Muslim minority and security services.

Police and groups of local volunteers increased security near mosques in Qatif after suicide bombings hit mosques in Shi’ite areas last year, killing dozens. Another suicide blast at a mosque used by security forces also killed 15 a year ago.

(Additional reporting by Sami Aboudi in Dubai; Writing by Peter Graff; editing by Anna Willard)

Iran-Saudi row threatens any OPEC deal

A gas flare on an oil production platform in the Soroush oil fields is seen alongside an Iranian flag in the Gulf

By Alex Lawler and Rania El Gamal

LONDON/DUBAI (Reuters) – OPEC’s thorniest dilemma of the past year – at least from a purely oil standpoint – is about to disappear.

Less than six months after the lifting of Western sanctions, Iran is close to regaining normal oil export volumes, adding extra barrels to the market in an unexpectedly smooth way and helped by supply disruptions from Canada to Nigeria.

But the development will do little to repair dialogue, let alone help clinch a production deal, when OPEC meets next week amid rising political tensions between arch-rivals Iran and oil superpower Saudi Arabia, OPEC sources and delegates say.

Earlier this year, Tehran refused to join an initiative to boost prices by freezing output but signaled it would be part of a future effort once its production had recovered sufficiently. OPEC has no supply limit, having at its last meeting in December scrapped its production target.

According to International Energy Agency (IEA) figures, Iran’s output has reached levels seen before the imposition of sanctions over its nuclear program. Tehran says it is not yet there.

But while Iran may be more willing now to talk, an increase in oil prices has reduced the urgency of propping up the market, OPEC delegates say. Oil has risen toward a more producer-friendly $50 from a 12-year low near $27 in January.

“I don’t think OPEC will decide anything,” a delegate from a major Middle East producer said. “The market is recovering because of supply disruptions and demand recovery.”

A senior OPEC delegate, asked whether the group would make any changes to output policy at its June 2 meeting, said: “Nothing. The freeze is finished.”

Within OPEC, Iran has long pushed for measures to support oil prices. That position puts it at odds with Saudi Arabia, the driving force behind OPEC’s landmark November 2014 refusal to cut supply in order to boost the market.

Sources familiar with Iranian oil policy see no sign of any change of approach by Riyadh under new Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih – who is seen as a believer in reform and low oil prices.

“It really depends on those countries within OPEC with a high level of production,” one such source said. “It does not seem that Saudi Arabia will be ready to cooperate with other members.”

HIGHER EXPORTS

Iran has managed to increase oil exports significantly in 2016 after the lifting of sanctions in January.

It notched up output of 3.56 million barrels of oil per day in April, the IEA said, a level last reached in November 2011 before sanctions were tightened.

Saudi Arabia produced a near-record-high 10.26 million barrels per day in April and has kept output relatively steady over the past year, its submissions to OPEC show.

Iran, according to delegates from other OPEC members, is unlikely to restrain supplies, given that it believes Saudi Arabia should cut back itself to make room for Iranian oil.

“Iran won’t support any freeze or cut,” said a non-Iranian OPEC delegate. “But Iran may put pressure on Saudi Arabia that they hold the responsibility.”

Saudi thinking, however, has moved on from the days when Riyadh cut or increased output unilaterally. Talks in Doha on the proposed output freeze by OPEC and non-OPEC producers fell through after Saudi insisted that Iran participate.

Indeed, differences between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which helped found the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 56 years ago, over OPEC policy have made cooperation harder – to say nothing of more fundamental disagreements.

For more than a decade after oil crashed to $10 in 1997, the two set aside rivalries to manage the market and support prices, although they fell into opposing OPEC camps with Iran wanting high prices and Saudi more moderate.

Now, the Sunni-Shia conflicts setting Saudi Arabia and Iran at each other’s throats, particularly in Syria and Yemen, make the relationship between the two even more fraught.

The two disagree over OPEC’s future direction. Earlier in May, OPEC failed to decide on a long-term strategy as Saudi Arabia objected to Iran’s proposal that the exporter group aim for “effective production management”.

With that backdrop, ministers may be advised to keep expectations low, an OPEC watcher said.

“The only aspiration OPEC should have for its 2 June meeting is simply not to repeat the chaos of the Doha process,” said Paul Horsnell, analyst at Standard Chartered.

“A straightforward meeting with no binding commitments and, most importantly, no overt arguments would be the best outcome for ministers.”

(Reporting by Alex Lawler and Rania El Gamal; Editing by Dale Hudson)

Senate passes bill allowing Sept. 11 victims to sue Saudi Arabia

An American flag flies near the base of the destroyed World Trade Center in New York, in this file photo from September 11, 2001, taken after the collapse of the towers.

By Patricia Zengerle

(Reuters) – The U.S. Senate passed legislation on Tuesday that would allow survivors and relatives of those killed in the Sept. 11 attacks to file lawsuits seeking damages against the government of Saudi Arabia.

The legislation, known as the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act, or JASTA, passed in the Senate by unanimous voice vote.

If it passes the House of Representatives and is signed into law by U.S. President Barack Obama, JASTA would allow lawsuits to proceed in federal court in New York as lawyers try to prove that the Saudis were involved in the 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.

The Saudis deny any involvement.

Islamist militants exploit chaos as combatants pursue peace in Yemen

By Mohammed Ghobari and Noah Browning

CAIRO/DUBAI (Reuters) – Islamic State efforts to exploit chaos may have brought Saudi-backed forces and Iran-allied Houthis tentatively closer at peace talks in Yemen’s civil war, but a deal seems unlikely in time to avert collapse into armed, feuding statelets.

Ferocious conflict along Yemen’s northern border between Saudi Arabia and Iran-allied Ansurallah, a Shi’ite Muslim revival movement also called the Houthis, defied two previous attempts to seal a peace. But a truce this year and prisoner exchanges mean hopes for a third round of talks are higher.

The threat from an emerging common enemy may be galvanizing their efforts. Islamic State appears to be behind a dizzying uptick in suicide attacks and al Qaeda fighters continue to hold sway over broad swathes of the country that abuts Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter.

Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said on Thursday the kingdom sought to prioritize fighting militants in Yemen over its desultory arm-wrestle with entrenched Houthi insurgents.

“Whether we agree or disagree with them, the Houthis are part of the social fabric of Yemen … The Houthis are our neighbors. Al Qaeda and Daesh are terrorist entities that must be confronted in Yemen and everywhere else,” Jubeir tweeted, using the Arabic acronym for Islamic State.

Now largely stalemated, the conflict has killed at least 6,200 people – half of them civilians – and sent nearly three million people fleeing for safety.

Despite the relative lull during talks, hostility continues. Saudi Arabia has pounded its enemies with dozens of air strikes. Houthis have responded with two ballistic missile launches.

If the parties seize the opportunity, an unlikely new status quo may reign by which Houthis and Saudis depend on each other for peace.

“This could mean a massive re-ordering of Yemen’s political structure, and the conflict so far has already produced some strange bedfellows,” said Adam Baron, a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

The Houthis ousted the internationally recognized government in 2014 in what it hailed as a revolution but which Sunni Gulf Arab countries decried as a coup benefiting Shi’ite rival Iran.

Pounding the Houthis and their allies in Yemen’s army with air strikes beginning on March of 2015, a Saudi-led alliance soon deployed ground troops and rolled back their enemies toward Sanaa, held by the Houthis.

A near-blockade imposed by the Saudi-led coalition and frontlines which ebb and flow across villages and towns have deprived nearly 20 of 25 million people of access to clean water and put yet more in need of some form of humanitarian aid.

“SURRENDER”

Of the countries where pro-democracy “Arab Spring” uprisings in 2011 ultimately led to outright combat, Yemen’s United Nations-sponsored peace process arguably shows the most promise.

Unlike with Libya and Syria, representatives of Yemen’s warring sides meet daily in Kuwait and argue over how to implement U.N. Security Council resolutions and share power.

But while keeping Yemen’s parties talking for this long was an accomplishment, getting them to live together in Sanaa and share power remains a distant dream.

Yemeni Foreign Minister Abdel-Malek al-Mekhlafi accused the Houthis of resisting a U.N. Security Council Resolution from last April to disarm and vacate main cities.

“There is a wide gap in the debate, we are discussing the return of the state … they are thinking only of power and demanding a consensual government,” he told Reuters.

Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdel-Salam said on his facebook page: “The solution in Yemen must be consensual political dialogue and not imposing diktats or presenting terms of surrender, this is unthinkable.”

But a diplomatic source in Kuwait said that through the fog of rhetoric, a general outline of a resolution has been reached.

“There is an agreement on the withdrawal from the cities and the (Houthi) handover of weapons, forming a government of all parties and preparing for new elections. The dispute now only centers around where to begin,” the source said.

FEUDING STATELETS

All parties will be aware the danger of a collapse into feuding statelets is growing. The Houthis are deepening control over what remains of the shattered state it seized with the capital in 2014.

Footage of the graduation ceremony of an elite police unit last week showed recruits with right arms upraised in an erect salute, barking allegiance not just to Yemen but to Imam Ali and the slain founder of the Houthi movement – a move critics say proves their partisan agenda for the country.

Meanwhile the Houthis’ enemies in the restive, once independent South agitate ever more confidently for self-rule.

Militiamen in Aden last week expelled on the back of trucks more than 800 northerners they said lacked proper IDs and posed a security risk.

The tranquility amid the gardens and burbling fountains of the Kuwaiti emir’s palace hosting the talks have not impressed residents of Yemen’s bombed-out cities, who despair whether armed groups can ever be reined in.

“All the military movements on the ground suggest the war will resume and that both parties are continuing to mobilize their fighters on the front lines,” said Fuad al-Ramada, a 50-year old bureaucrat in the capital Sanaa.

(Writing By Noah Browning; editing by Ralph Boulton)

Shift in Saudi oil thinking deepens OPEC split

By Dmitry Zhdannikov and Rania El Gamal

LONDON/DUBAI (Reuters) – As OPEC officials gathered this week to formulate a long-term strategy, few in the room expected the discussions would end without a clash. But even the most jaded delegates got more than they had bargained with.

“OPEC is dead,” declared one frustrated official, according to two sources who were present or briefed about the Vienna meeting.

This was far from the first time that OPEC’s demise has been proclaimed in its 56-year history, and the oil exporters’ group itself may yet enjoy a long life in the era of cheap crude.

Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s most powerful member, still maintains that collective action by all producers is the best solution for an oil market that has dived since mid-2014.

But events at Monday’s meeting of OPEC governors suggest that if Saudi Arabia gets its way, then one of the group’s central strategies – of managing global oil prices by regulating supply – will indeed go to the grave.

In a major shift in thinking, Riyadh now believes that targeting prices has become pointless as the weak global market reflects structural changes rather than any temporary trend, according to sources familiar with its views.

OPEC is already split over how to respond to cheap oil. Last month tensions between Saudi Arabia and its arch-rival Iran ruined the first deal in 15 years to freeze crude output and help to lift global prices.

These resurfaced at the long-term strategy meeting of the OPEC governors, officials who report to their countries’ oil ministers.

According to the sources, it was a delegate from a non-Gulf Arab country who pronounced OPEC dead in remarks directed at the Saudi representative as they argued over whether the group should keep targeting prices.

Iran, represented by its governor Hossein Kazempour Ardebili, has been arguing that this is precisely what OPEC was created for and hence “effective production management” should be one of its top long-term goals.

But Saudi governor Mohammed al-Madi said he believed the world has changed so much in the past few years that it has become a futile exercise to try to do so, sources say.

“OPEC should recognize the fact that the market has gone through a structural change, as is evident by the market becoming more competitive rather than monopolistic,” al-Madi told his counterparts inside the meeting, according to sources familiar with the discussions.

“The market has evolved since the 2010-2014 period of high prices and the challenge for OPEC now, as well as for non-OPEC (producers), is to come to grips with recent market developments,” al-Madi said, according to the sources.

ORCHESTRATION

For decades Saudi Arabia had a preferred oil price target and if it didn’t like the prevailing market level, it would try to orchestrate a production cut or increase in OPEC. It would contribute the lion’s share of the adjustment and forgive smaller and poorer members if they failed to comply with the group’s agreement.

Back in 2008, the late King Abdullah named $75 a barrel as the kingdom’s “fair” oil price, most likely after consultations with the long-serving oil minister Ali al-Naimi.

When the Saudis orchestrated the last output cut in 2008 – to support prices during the global economic crisis – oil jumped fairly quickly back above $100 from below $40. Later Riyadh again made known its price preference on a few occasions but in recent years it has effectively stopped sending any signals.

This follows the fundamental changes on oil markets. In the past five years, the development of unconventional oil production from U.S. shale deposits and other sources such as Canadian oil sands has made redundant the idea that crude is a scarce and finite resource. Russia, which is not an OPEC member, has also contributed to the ample global supply.

“NO FREE RIDERS”

Dispensing with price targets represents a massive change in Saudi thinking. This is now being driven largely by 31-year-old Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who took over as the ultimate decision maker of the country’s energy and economic policies last year.

When oil was viewed as scarce, the kingdom thought it had to maximize its long-term revenues even if that meant pumping fewer barrels and yielding market share to rival producers, according to several sources familiar with the Saudi thinking.

With the importance of oil declining, Riyadh has decided it is wiser to prioritize market share, the sources say. It believes it will be better off producing more at today’s low prices than reducing output, only to sell the oil for even less in the future as global demand ebbs.

On top of this, Riyadh has pressing short-term needs including tackling a budget deficit which hit 367 billion riyals ($97.9 billion) or 15 percent of gross domestic product in 2015.

“The oil industry is, relatively speaking, not a growth industry any more,” said one of the sources familiar with the Saudi views inside the OPEC governors’ meeting.

In the past, low oil prices used to push global demand much higher but today’s rising efficiency of motor vehicles, new technology and environmental policies have put a lid on growth.

Despite record low prices in the past year, demand is not expected to grow by more than 1 million barrels per day in 2016, just one percent of global demand.

One thing is guaranteed: the kingdom will not go back to the old pattern of cutting output any time soon to support prices for the benefit of all producers, Saudi sources say.

“The bottom line is that there will be no free riders any more,” al-Madi said at Monday’s meeting. “Some OPEC members should ‘walk the talk’ first,” he told his colleagues.

Even Riyadh’s rivals doubt it will perform any U-turn. “Saudi Arabia doesn’t give a damn about OPEC any more. They are after U.S. shale, Canadian oil sands and Russia,” a non-Gulf OPEC source said.

(Additional reporting by Alex Lawler; writing by Dmitry Zhdannikov; editing by David Stamp)

Saudi Minister confirms warning on proposed U.S. law on 911

The Tribute in Light installation is illuminated over lower Manhattan as seen from Brooklyn Bridge

By Stephanie Nebehay

GENEVA (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia has warned the United States that a proposed U.S. law that could hold the kingdom responsible for any role in the Sept 11, 2001, attacks would erode global investor confidence in America, its foreign minister said on Monday.

The minister, Adel al-Jubeir, speaking to reporters in Geneva after talks with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, which mainly focused on Syria, denied that Saudi Arabia had “threatened” to withdraw investment from its close ally.

The New York Times reported last month that the Riyadh government had threatened to sell up to $750 billion worth of American assets should the U.S. Congress pass a bill that would take away immunity from foreign governments in cases arising from a “terrorist attack that kills an American on American soil”.

“We say a law like this would cause an erosion of investor confidence. But then to kind of say, ‘My God the Saudis are threatening us’ – ridiculous,” Jubeir said.

“We don’t use monetary policy and we don’t use energy policy and we don’t use economic policy for political purposes. When we invest, we invest as investors. When we sell oil, we sell oil as traders.”

Jubeir, pressed on whether the Saudia Arabia had suggested the law could affect its investment policies, said: “I say you can warn. What has happened is that people are saying we threatened. We said that a law like this is going to cause investor confidence to shrink. And so not just for Saudi Arabia, but for everybody.”

The New York Times, citing administration officials and congressional aides, said that the Obama administration had lobbied Congress to block passage of the bill, which passed the Senate Judiciary Committee earlier this year.

“In fact what they are doing is stripping the principle of sovereign immunities which would turn the world for international law into the law of the jungle,” Jubeir said.

“That’s why the administration is opposed to it, and that’s why every country in the world is opposed to it.

“And then people say ‘Saudi Arabia is threatening the U.S. by pulling our investments’. Nonsense.”

(Reporting by Stephanie Nebehay; Editing by Richard Balmforth)

IEA expects OPEC production will fall this year

An oil pump jack can be seen in Cisco, Texas, August 23, 2015. REUTERS/Mike Stone

By Sarah McFarlane

LONDON (Reuters) – Crude prices firmed on Thursday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) said non-OPEC production would fall this year by the most in a generation and help rebalance a market dogged by oversupply.

IEA chief Fatih Birol said low oil prices had cut investment by about 40 percent over the past two years, with sharp falls in the United States, Canada, Latin America and Russia.

Benchmark Brent crude futures were up 12 cents at $45.92 a barrel by 1204 GMT. U.S. crude futures were 4 cents higher at $44.22. Both have gained about 70 percent from lows hit between January and February.

“It looks very strong at the moment, sentiment is bullish, technicals look fine, so I rather see prices rising further from here,” Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch said.

The drop in supply from some producers, however, could be offset by increased output in countries such as Russia and Iran.

Russia’s energy minister said it might push oil production to historic highs and Iran has reiterated its intention to reach output of 4 million barrels per day after a global deal to freeze output collapsed and Saudi Arabia threatened to flood markets with more crude.

Libya could also rapidly ramp up oil production as soon as stability returns, the head of Libya National Oil Corporation (NOC) told an oil summit in Paris.

Nigeria will hold talks with Saudi Arabia, Iran and other producers by May, hoping to reach a deal on an output freeze at the next OPEC meeting in June, where it is expected to be a key item on the agenda.

“The focus of the market is primarily on price-supportive news and that’s just an indication of how sentiment is,” Saxo Bank senior manager Ole Hansen said.

Hansen said fund flows into commodities had been strong this week, driven by a weaker dollar.

The U.S. currency hit 10-month lows against some commodity-related currencies earlier this week. The Thomson Reuters Core Commodity Index rose to its highest since early December. [MKTS/GLOB]

“This whole recovery has been driven by supply being capped and supply is price sensitive and again we’re back to levels where we could see some of these producers breathe again,” Hansen said.

French bank BNP Paribas said any hope of the oil market rebalancing from the current surplus relied on a predicted decline in U.S. oil production.

“The U.S. accounts for the bulk of non-OPEC’s 2016 oil supply contraction of 700,000 barrels per day forecast. If the decline in the U.S. oil supply proves insufficient to tighten balances, then … the oil price will remain low,” it said.

In refined products, China’s exports of diesel and gasoline soared, spilling surplus fuel onto a market that is already well supplied, and threatening to cut Asian benchmark refining margins further.

(Additional reporting by Henning Gloystein in Singapore and Osamu Tsukimori in Tokyo; editing by David Evans and David Clarke)

Yemen fighting to halt April 10, peace talks start April 18

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) – The warring parties in Yemen have agreed to a cessation of hostilities starting at midnight on April 10 and peace talks in Kuwait beginning a week later, United Nations special envoy Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed said on Wednesday.

There have already been several failed attempts to defuse the conflict in Yemen, which has drawn in regional foes Saudi Arabia and Iran and triggered a humanitarian crisis in the Arab world’s poorest country.

“This is really our last chance,” Ould Cheikh Ahmed told reporters in New York. “The war in Yemen must be brought to an end.”

A Saudi-led coalition began a military campaign in Yemen a year ago with the aim of preventing Iran-allied Houthi rebels and forces loyal to Yemen’s ex-president Ali Abdullah Saleh from taking control of the country.

Ould Cheikh Ahmed said Saudi Arabia is “fully committed to make sure that the next talks take place and particularly supports us with regard to the cessation of hostilities.”

The United Nations says more than 6,000 people, half of them civilians, have been killed since the start of the Saudi-led military intervention whose ultimate aim is to restore President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi to power.

U.S.-based rights group Human Rights Watch said on Wednesday that the United States, Britain, France and others should suspend all weapons sales to Saudi Arabia over what the group deemed unlawful air strikes.

“The only way to limit the damage is for countries to stop providing weapons to Saudi Arabia,” said Philippe Bolopion, Human Rights Watch deputy global advocacy director.

The Saudi-led coalition has targeted civilians with air strikes and some of the attacks could be crimes against humanity, U.N. sanctions monitors told the Security Council in January.

Ould Cheikh Ahmed said prominent Yemeni figures would be enlisted to cooperate with a de-escalation and coordination committee on the cessation of hostilities and “to report on progress and security incidents.”

He said the peace talks would focus on five areas: a withdrawal of militia and armed groups; a handover of heavy weaponry to the state; interim security arrangements; restoration of state institutions; and resumption of inclusive political dialogue.

The warring parties have been asked to present a concept paper on each of these areas by April 3, the U.N. envoy said.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), an affiliate of the global Sunni Muslim militant organization, has also expanded its foothold in the country as the government focuses on its battle with the Houthi rebels.

(Reporting by Michelle Nichols; Editing by Chris Reese and James Dalgleish)

IEA says OPEC, Russia oil output freeze deal may be ‘meaningless’

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – A deal among some OPEC producers and Russia to freeze production is perhaps “meaningless” as Saudi Arabia is the only country with the ability to increase output, a senior executive from the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.

Brent crude futures are up more than 50 percent from a 12-year low near $27 a barrel hit early this year, bouncing back after Russia and OPEC’s Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Qatar struck an agreement last month to keep output at January levels.

Qatar has invited all 13 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and major non-OPEC producers to Doha on April 17 for another round of talks to widen the production freeze deal.

“Amongst the group of countries (participating in the meeting) that we’re aware of, only Saudi Arabia has any ability to increase its production,” said Neil Atkinson, head of the IEA’s oil industry and markets division, at an industry event.

“So a freeze on production is perhaps rather meaningless. It’s more some kind of gesture which perhaps is aimed … to build confidence that there will be stability in oil prices.”

Libya has joined Iran in snubbing the initiative, and the absence of the two OPEC producers – both with ample room to increase output – would limit the impact of any success in broadening the freeze at the April meeting.

The rise in output from Iran in the first quarter post-sanctions has been in line with IEA’s expectation of 300,000 barrels per day (bpd), Atkinson said, adding that Tehran’s output could rise again by the same amount by the third quarter.

“Iran has not exactly been flooding the market with lots more oil. It seems to be far more measured,” Atkinson said.

It will take a while for Iran to regain its pre-sanctions share in Europe, where markets have been taken over by Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iraq, he added.

The IEA, energy watchdog for the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), expects the wide gap between supply and demand to narrow later this year, paving the way for an oil price recovery in 2017.

“We think the worst is over for prices … Today’s prices may not be sustainable at exactly $40 a barrel, but in this mid-$30s and upward range, we think there will be some support unless there’s a major change in fundamentals,” Atkinson said.

(Reporting by Florence Tan; Editing by Tom Hogue)

Yemen peace talks expected in Kuwait next month, official says

CAIRO (Reuters) – Talks aimed at ending Yemen’s war are expected in Kuwait next month along with a temporary ceasefire, a senior Yemeni government official said, raising the prospect of an end to violence that has killed thousands.

On Tuesday Saudi-led airstrikes targeting al Qaeda-linked militants in eastern Yemen killed and wounded dozens of people, a provincial governor and medics said.

“The talks will be on April 17 in Kuwait, accompanied by a temporary ceasefire,” the Yemeni official said, declining to be named. There were two inconclusive rounds of peace talks in Switzerland last year.

There was no immediate response from the Houthi militia regarding the prospect of talks. A prisoner swap and pause in combat on the border with Saudi Arabia earlier this month had raised hopes of a push to end the war.

Tuesday’s Saudi-led airstrikes hit an area west of Mukalla, a port city and capital of the Hadramout province. Residents said at least 30 militants were killed and many more wounded. A spokesman for the Saudi-led alliance was not immediately available for comment.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), an affiliate of the global Sunni Muslim militant organisation, has expanded its foothold in the country as the government focuses on its battle with the Houthi rebels.

The United Nations says more than 6,000 people have been killed since the start of the Saudi-led military intervention whose ultimate aim is to restore President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi following his ousting by Houthi and pro-Saleh forces.

“It has been a terrible year with air strikes, shelling and localized violence. An already very impoverished country has been put at a very sharp end,” Jamie McGoldrick, U.N. Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Yemen, told reporters in Geneva.

One in ten Yemenis is displaced, he said, adding that half of those killed and injured were civilians.

He said U.N. special envoy Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed had been in the capital Sanaa over the past few days for discussions with parties involved and also was in Riyadh.

“What they are hoping for is to put in place a ceasefire of some kind or a cessation of hostilities for a week or so prior to the talks and build confidence,” he said.

The spokesman for the Saudi-led coalition and Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir have said that any peace talks can take place only between Hadi and the Houthis, and through the U.N. special envoy.

(Additional reporting by Mohamed Mukashaf in Aden and Stephanie Nebehay in Geneva; Writing by Sylvia Westall; Editing by Mark Heinrich and Richard Balmforth)

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