The Jim Bakker Show

U.S. defense intelligence chief predicts increased Islamic State attacks

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Islamic State is likely to “increase the pace and lethality” of its transnational attacks, U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency Director Vincent Stewart said on Monday.

Speaking to a security conference, Stewart linked his warning to the extremist movement’s establishment of “emerging branches” in Mali, Tunisia, Somalia, Bangladesh and Indonesia.

“And it wouldn’t surprise me to see them further extend” operations from the Sinai Peninsula deeper into Egypt, he said.

“Last year, Daesh remained entrenched on Iraqi and Syrian battlefields and expanded globally to Libya, Sinai, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and the Caucasus,” Stewart said, using a derisive Arabic acronym for Islamic State. “Daesh is likely to increase the pace and lethality of its transnational attacks.”

(Reporting by Jonathan Landay. Editing by Warren Strobel and Eric Beech)

French PM defends emergency rule, says terror threat ‘here to last’

PARIS (Reuters) – Thousands of house searches since November’s Islamist attacks in Paris have helped foil another terrorist plot, French Prime Minister Manuel Valls said on Friday as his government sought to extend emergency rule.

Valls, defending state of emergency rules that have allowed police conduct thousands of house searches in just a few months, also said over 2,000 French residents were believed to be involved with jihadi networks based in Syria and Iraq.

The Islamic State militant group that controls large parts of Iraq and Syria claimed responsibility for the Nov 13. attack on Paris, in which gunmen and suicide bombers killed 130 people and injured hundreds more.

“The terrorist threat is here, and here to last,” Valls told the National Assembly, where the government is asking lawmakers to extend the state of emergency to the end of May and amend the Constitution so people convicted on terror charges can be stripped of their citizenship.

In 2015, 15 terror plots were foiled by the French security services, he said.

At least one plot, he said, was foiled as a direct result of house searches police have been able to conduct under state of emergency rule, which allows police to conduct raids without first securing a search warrant from the judiciary.

In the three months since the attacks on Paris, police have carried out 3,289 house searches, placed 341 people in custody, put 407 under house arrest and confiscated 560 weapons, 42 of them war-grade, the prime minister said.

Half of the 2,000 people involved in some way or other with jihadist networks in Syria and Iraq had left France for that region, and 597 were still there, he said.

France is among several countries whose jets are bombing the strongholds of the Islamist State, which has declared a caliphate and vowed to carry out more attacks on France.

The ruling Socialists have taken a strong line on law and order against competition from their conservative opponents and the far-right National Front as the country approaches elections next year.

The plan to strip dual nationals of their French passport if convicted of terrorism has sparked huge controversy, deeply divided Hollande’s Socialist party and threatens to hurt his already faltering chances of winning re-election next year.

After many redraftings of the text, it is unclear if the government will manage to muster enough voted from left-wing and right-wing lawmakers to have it adopted.

(Writing by Brian Love; Editing by Andrew Callus and Tom Heneghan)

German spy agency says ISIS sending fighters disguised as refugees

BERLIN (Reuters) – Islamic State militants have slipped into Europe disguised as refugees, the head of Germany’s domestic intelligence agency (BfV) said on Friday, a day after security forces thwarted a potential IS attack in Berlin.

Hans-Georg Maassen said the terrorist attacks in Paris last November had shown that Islamic State was deliberately planting terrorists among the refugees flowing into Europe.

“Then we have repeatedly seen that terrorists … have slipped in camouflaged or disguised as refugees. This is a fact that the security agencies are facing,” Maassen told ZDF television.

“We are trying to recognize and identify whether there are still more IS fighters or terrorists from IS that have slipped in,” he added.

The Berliner Zeitung newspaper cited Maassen on Friday as saying that the BfV had received more than 100 tip-offs that there were Islamic State fighters among the refugees currently staying in Germany.

German fears about an attack have risen since the Paris killings. On Thursday, German forces arrested two men suspected of links to Islamic State militants preparing an attack in the German capital.

Authorities also canceled a friendly international soccer match in Hanover last year and closed stations in Munich at New Year due to security concerns.

Maassen, however, warned against alarm.

“We are in a serious situation and there is a high risk that there could be an attack. But the security agencies, the intelligence services and the police authorities are very alert and our goal is to minimize the risk as best we can,” he said.

(Reporting by Caroline Copley; Editing by Tom Heneghan)

ISIS committing ‘genocide’ against Christians, EU Parliament says

The European Parliament has labeled the Islamic State’s actions against Christians and other religious and ethnic groups as genocide, calling for world powers to hold the group responsible.

The parliament on Thursday adopted a resolution that states the Islamic State “is committing genocide against Christians and Yazidis, and other religious and ethnic minorities who do not agree with” its radical religious beliefs, adding the actions of the insurgency “are part of its attempts to exterminate any religious and ethnic minorities from the areas under its control.”

The resolution also accuses the Islamic State of “egregious human rights abuses, which amount to crimes against humanity and war crimes.” The genocide label carries some added weight, though, because the United Nations has adopted a treaty devoted to punishing and preventing it.

The treaty, implemented in 1948, defines genocide as certain actions “committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group.” The actions include murdering the group’s members, or inflicting serious bodily or mental harm upon them.

The parliament’s resolution calls for the United Nations Security Council to ask the International Criminal Court to launch an official investigation into the genocide allegations.

It was approved one week after the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, a group concerned with human rights, adopted a similar resolution that stated the Islamic State has “perpetrated acts of genocide and other serious crimes punishable under international law.”

Lawmakers and advocacy groups have called for the United States to declare the Islamic State’s actions as genocide, though the country has yet to take that step. Resolutions to that effect have been introduced in the House and Senate, but they have not been adopted.

The European Parliament’s resolution details several of the Islamic State’s actions against civilians, notably Christians and Yazidis, as the group captured large parts of Syria and Iraq.

The resolution states the Islamic State killed some 5,000 Yazidis and forced some 2,000 women into marriages, slavery or human trafficking. Others have been forced to convert to Islam.

The Islamic State also kidnapped more than 220 Assyrian Christians last February, according to the resolution. While some of them have since been released, the fate of most remains unknown.

The resolution charges that more than 150,000 Christians fled their homes on Aug. 6, 2014, as the Islamic State gained territory in Ninevah Province. Some of those who did not escape were captured, and the Islamic State executed some and enslaved others. The Islamic State still controls Mosul, leaving thousands of Christians displaced without any of their possessions.

According to ADF International, a religious freedom advocate, the number of Christians living in Syria and Iraq has dropped from 2.65 million to 775,000 in recent years. The organization’s director of EU advocacy, Sophia Kuby, said it welcomed the European Parliament’s resolution.

“It was high time that the EU responded to the undeniable evidence of this genocide, which includes assassinations of church leaders, torture, mass murders, kidnapping, sexual enslavement, systematic rape of Christian and Yazidi girls and women, and the destruction of churches, monasteries, and cemeteries,” Kuby said in a statement.

Last month, Open Doors USA released a report that said Christian persecution had reached “unprecedented” levels and warned that it would likely continue to increase.

The nonprofit group released a list of the top 50 countries where Christians face the most persecution. Middle Eastern countries occupied five of the top 10 spots, and Islamic extremist groups were a source of persecution in four others.

In December, the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom, an independent group that makes recommendations to the government, urged officials to designate Christians, Yazidis and other groups victims of Islamic State’s genocide.

No such declaration has been made.

“The hallmark of genocide is the intent to destroy a national, racial, ethnic, or religious group, in whole or in part,” the commission’s chairman, Robert P. George, said in a statement at the time. “ISIL’s intent to destroy religious groups that do not subscribe to its extremist ideology in the areas in Iraq and Syria that it controls, or seeks to control, is evident in, not only its barbarous acts, but also its own propaganda.”

German police conduct raids over possible Islamic State attack

BERLIN (Reuters) – German forces arrested two men on Thursday suspected of links to Islamic State militants preparing an attack in the German capital, police and prosecutors said, amid fears of another deadly attack on European soil.

Police and special forces raided four flats and two offices in Berlin and properties in the northern regions of North Rhine-Westphalia and Lower Saxony.

“Specifically (the raids) concern possible plans for an attack in Germany, even more specifically in Berlin,” Martin Steltner, a spokesman for Berlin prosecutors, told Reuters TV.

Berlin police spokesman Stefan Redlich said the authorities were investigating four Algerian men. Police detained two men and a woman.

“Our understanding is that the four men accused could have planned to carry out such an attack together,” Steltner said.

German media reported that central Berlin landmarks and tourist attractions Checkpoint Charlie and Alexanderplatz were targets.

Redlich said the Berlin suspects worked in those two locations and that searches were carried out there. But he could not confirm that they were the targets.

Redlich and Steltner said police acted on a tip-off but gave no further details.

Security agencies have been monitoring the suspects since January, Funke Media Group said. The men behaved conspiratorially, changed their mobile phones multiple times and communicated via instant messaging services, it added.

The Tagesspiegel newspaper, citing security sources, said leading members of Islamic State (IS), who were responsible for the Paris attacks that killed 130 people in November, had given the order for an attack in Germany.

Prosecutors declined to comment on the report.

‘NO SMOKING GUN’

Police seized computers, mobile telephones and sketches in the raids, Steltner said, adding “we haven’t found the smoking gun”.

A couple was arrested in North Rhine-Westphalia and another man was arrested in Berlin, Steltner said. All were detained on existing warrants related to other matters.

The man detained in North-Rhine Westphalia was arrested in a shelter for refugees and arrived a short while ago in Germany claiming to be from Syria, Steltner said.

He is wanted by Algerian authorities, who believe he is a member of Islamic State, said Steltner. He is suspected of having military training in Syria.

The status of the other men was unclear, but Redlich said the two Berlin-based suspects were not refugees.

“In Berlin, the two persons we are investigating are not refugees,” Redlich added. “Both have jobs here and have been here a long time.”

German fears about an attack have risen since the Paris killings. Authorities canceled a friendly international soccer match in Hanover last year and closed stations in Munich at New Year due to security concerns.

(Additional reporting by Madeline Chambers, Victoria Bryan and Paul Carrel in Berlin and Matthias Inverardi in Duesseldorf; Editing by Larry King and Katharine Houreld)

U.S. eyes ways to toughen fight against domestic extremists

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. Justice Department is considering legal changes to combat what it sees as a rising threat from domestic anti-government extremists, senior officials told Reuters, even as it steps up efforts to stop Islamic State-inspired attacks at home.

Extremist groups motivated by a range of U.S.-born philosophies present a “clear and present danger,” John Carlin, the Justice Department’s chief of national security, told Reuters in an interview. “Based on recent reports and the cases we are seeing, it seems like we’re in a heightened environment.”

Over the past year, the Justice Department has brought charges against domestic extremist suspects accused of attempting to bomb U.S. military bases, kill police officers and fire bomb a school and other buildings in a predominantly Muslim town in New York state.

But federal prosecutors tackling domestic extremists still lack an important legal tool they have used extensively in dozens of prosecutions against Islamic State-inspired suspects: a law that prohibits supporting designated terrorist groups.

Carlin and other Justice Department officials declined to say if they would ask Congress for a comparable domestic extremist statute, or comment on what other changes they might pursue to toughen the fight against anti-government extremists.

The U.S. State Department designates international terrorist organizations to which it is illegal to provide “material support.” No domestic groups have that designation, helping to create a disparity in charges faced by international extremist suspects compared to domestic ones.

A Reuters analysis of more than 100 federal cases found that domestic terrorism suspects collectively have faced less severe charges than those accused of acting on behalf of Islamic State since prosecutors began targeting that group in early 2014.

Over the past two years, 27 defendants have been charged with plotting or inciting attacks within the United States in the name of Islamic State. They have faced charges that carried a median prison sentence of 53 years – half of the defendants faced more, and half faced less.

In the same period, 27 adherents of U.S.-based anti-government ideologies have been charged with similar activity. They faced charges that carried a median prison sentence of 20 years.

Carlin said his counter-terrorism team, including a recently hired counsel, is taking a “thoughtful look at the nature and scope of the domestic terrorism threat” and helping to analyze “potential legal improvements and enhancements to better combat those threats.”

The counsel, who was appointed last October and has not been named publicly, will identify cases being prosecuted at the state level that “could arguably meet the federal definition of domestic terrorism,” a Justice Department official said.

That would give the department a direct role in more domestic extremism cases.

Recognizing that domestic threats were “rapidly evolving, and had the potential to grow,” the department in March 2015 rated disrupting such terrorists as a key component of its broader counter-terrorism efforts, officials said.

THE THREAT PENDULUM

The Justice Department aggressively pursued domestic extremists after Timothy McVeigh bombed a federal building in Oklahoma City in 1995, killing 168 people.

The government shifted its focus to international terrorism after al Qaeda killed nearly 3,000 Americans on Sept. 11, 2001.

But in recent years anti-government activists, like those who occupied a wildlife preserve in eastern Oregon last month, have regained prominence.

As law enforcement experts confront domestic militia groups, “sovereign citizens” who do not recognize government authority, and other anti-government extremists, they also face a heightened threat from Islamic extremists like the couple who carried out the Dec. 2 shootings in San Bernardino, California.

“A new development we’re seeing is that when it comes to ISIL investigations, the flash-to-bang time from radicalization to action appears to be happening faster than with other types of terrorists,” said Michael Steinbach, the head of the FBI’s Counterterrorism Division.

As a result, government agents are quick to investigate people who appear sympathetic toward Islamic State, current and former officials say. But some say the government has been overzealous in its pursuit of Islamic State suspects.

Similar actions by extremist suspects have yielded sharply disparate sentences.

Eight Islamic State-related defendants have been sentenced so far, to prison terms that range from three to 20 years, the Reuters review found. Over the same period, 18 domestic extremists have been sentenced to terms from one day to 12 years.

Prosecutors say Harlem Suarez, 23, of Key West, Florida, tried to buy a bomb last year from an undercover FBI agent as he plotted attacks on behalf of Islamic State. He faces a possible sentence of life in prison and has pleaded not guilty.

Michael Sibley, 67, left two unexploded pipe bombs and a Koran in a park in Roswell, Georgia in 2014 in what he later told police was an attempt to highlight the danger of Islamic terrorism. He pleaded guilty and faces a maximum of five years in prison.

“A different standard is being applied to Muslims than to other people,” said Daryl Johnson, a former counterterrorism expert at the Department of Homeland Security who now works as a law enforcement consultant.

“SPRING-LOADED”

Steinbach said that the FBI can never open up any type of investigation “just on the basis of race, creed, or religion,”

But he added that federal agents are “spring-loaded” to open investigations into Americans who support groups on the State Department list of designated terrorist organizations.

The maximum penalty for supporting one of these groups has been raised from 10 years to 20 years in prison since 2001.

It has been applied in 58 of the government’s 79 Islamic State cases since 2014 against defendants who engaged in a wide range of activity, from traveling to Syria to fight alongside Islamic State to raising money for a friend who wished to do so.

Judges usually issue sentences below the maximum, but some charges trigger sentencing “enhancements” that raise the baseline sentence a judge can issue – and the material support charge raises it more than most.

Domestic groups enjoy greater constitutional protections because being a member of those groups, no matter how extreme their rhetoric, is not a crime.

Prosecutors can bring “material support” terrorism charges against defendants who aren’t linked to groups on the State Department’s list, but they have only done so twice against non-jihadist suspects since the law was enacted in 1994. The law, which prohibits supporting people who have been deemed to be terrorists by their actions, carries a maximum sentence of 15 years in prison.

Current and former federal prosecutors say they rarely consider that statute in domestic terrorism cases because it is often hard to convince a jury that someone who is not affiliated with a foreign group can be guilty of terrorism.

William Wilmoth, a former federal prosecutor who invoked that law in a 1996 case against a West Virginia militia member, said he was surprised to hear that it isn’t used more often.

“These guys have every right to have off-center political views,” he said. “But when they made affirmative steps to blow up an actual federal facility… we thought it was an important place for us to go and prosecute.”

(Reporting by Julia Harte, Julia Edwards and Andy Sullivan; editing by Stuart Grudgings)

Afghanistan needs long-term U.S. commitment, general says

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The United States must make a long-term commitment to Afghanistan to stop security there from worsening further and prevent attacks on the West by militants based there, the outgoing commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan said on Tuesday.

General John Campbell said in testimony before a congressional committee that while Afghan security forces had shown “uneven” performance in 2015 and faced major leadership problems, continued U.S. support for the Afghan government was needed to defeat the Taliban and other militant groups including al Qaeda and the Haqqani network.

“These are certainly not residual threats that would allow for a peaceful transition across Afghanistan,” Campbell said. “Ultimately the threats Afghanistan faces require our sustained attention and forward presence.”

Campbell has commanded U.S. and international forces in Afghanistan for the past 18 months and is expected to retire. President Barack Obama has chosen Lieutenant General John Nicholson to replace Campbell.

A blunt Pentagon report released in December said the security situation in Afghanistan deteriorated in the second half of 2015, with the Taliban staging more attacks and inflicting far more casualties on Afghan forces.

The security situation prompted Obama to announce in October that the United States would maintain a force of about 9,800 troops in Afghanistan through most of 2016, instead of drawing down to an embassy-based presence by 2017.

Of 407 district centers in Afghanistan, 26 are under insurgent control or influence, Campbell said, with another 94 district centers viewed as at risk at any given time.

Campbell praised Obama’s decision to maintain a U.S. troop presence throughout most of this year, and said the United States was developing a five-year vision that would avoid the traditional year-to-year planning mindset.

“Now more than ever, the United States should not waver on Afghanistan,” Campbell said. “If we do not make deliberate, measured adjustments, 2016 is at risk of being no better, and possibly worse than 2015.”

(Reporting by Yeganeh Torbati; Editing by Steve Orlofsky)

Coalition aims to recapture ISIS ‘caliphate’ in Iraq, Syria

BAGHDAD (Reuters) – The U.S.-led coalition fighting Islamic State aims this year to recapture Iraq’s second city Mosul, working with Iraqi government forces, and drive the jihadis out of Raqqa, their stronghold in northeast Syria, Arab and Western officials say.

If it succeeds, the coalition will have struck a crippling blow against Islamic State’s self-proclaimed caliphate in Iraq and Syria.

The strategy is to regain territory at the heart of IS’s cross-border state, take both its “capitals”, and destroy the confidence of its fighters that it can expand as a Sunni caliphate and magnet for jihadis, according to these Arab and Western officials, few of whom were willing to speak on the record on a matter of such strategic sensitivity.

“The plan is to hit them in Raqqa in Syria and in Iraq at Mosul, to crush their capitals,” said an Iraqi official with knowledge of the strategy. “I think there is some speed and urgency by the coalition, by the U.S. administration and by us to end this year with the regaining of control over all territory.”

“Iraqi officials say 2016 will witness the elimination of Daesh (IS) and the Americans have the same idea – get the job finished, then they can withdraw and (President Barack) Obama will have a legacy,” said a diplomat in Baghdad, emphasizing the Iraqi part of the operation. “The day Mosul is liberated, Daesh will be defeated.”

The war against jihadi insurgents in this turbulent region has had its twists and turns but there is a palpable sense in Baghdad that the tide has turned against IS.

TWIN-PRONGED ANTI-IS STRATEGY

In the year after the jihadis’ summer 2014 surge back into Iraq from the bases they managed to build amid the chaos of Syria’s civil war, IS momentum as a rapid, flexible and brutal military force seemed unstoppable.

But in the past nine months IS has lost swathes of territory and strategic towns. In Iraq it was driven out of Tikrit and Sinjar in the north, the oil refinery town of Baiji in central Iraq, and Ramadi west of Baghdad in Anbar province, the heart of insurgency after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion that toppled Saddam.

In northern Syria, U.S.-allied Kurdish militia of the People’s Protection Units (YPG) have taken vital territory and border crossings below the frontier with Turkey, after breaking a long IS siege at Kobani and later taking Tel Abyad, north of Raqqa and a key supply line for the jihadi capital.

“Daesh are losing their ability to hold onto territory in Iraq and to stage the kind of complex attacks that allow them to hold the towns they seized,” said a U.S. official, adding that the recapture of Mosul would start in 2016.

Lieutenant-General Sean MacFarland, Baghdad-based head of the U.S.-led coalition, emphasized to a group of reporters last month the twin-pronged approach to operations against IS in Iraq, “in conjunction with something we might have going on over in Syria about the same time (and) see if we can put pressure on the enemy in two places at once and create a dilemma.”

Hisham al-Hashemi, an Iraqi expert on IS who advises the Iraqi government on the group, points out that as a result of last year’s setbacks “out of seven strategic roads between Iraq and Syria they (IS) now have one; they cannot move with ease and Turkey has tightened the noose on them.”

IS is under pressure across many other fronts apart from its ability to deploy. The collapse in oil prices has dented its revenue from oil smuggled, now through a less permeable Turkish border, from captured Syrian and Iraqi fields.

COVERT OPERATIONS

Coalition air strikes recently incinerated a stockpile of cash from looting and kidnapping, taxation and extortion, forcing IS to cut wages. It is losing top cadres. More than 100 mid-level to senior leaders have been killed since May, according to coalition spokesman Colonel Steve Warren, who says that “works out to an average of one every two days”.

“The place where they were holding huge cash reserves was targeted and destroyed,” the diplomat told Reuters.

“Daesh will be defeated in Iraq. It is not a question of if but when,” added another senior Western diplomat in Iraq.

A top Iraqi official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the Mosul operation would require delicate collaboration between the U.S. air force, the Iraqi army, local Sunni tribal forces, and Peshmerga fighters from the self-governing Kurdistan Regional Government east of the city.

“Most likely, coalition special forces will be embedded with the Iraqi forces and the Peshmerga will close on Mosul from the north and east.”

In Syria, he said, the likely combination would involve coalition air strikes with special forces and U.S.-led covert missions operating alongside mainly Kurdish fighters of the YPG and other Syrian rebels. “They have some special forces on the ground in Syria in Hasaka, on the outskirts of Raqqa with the rebels,” the Iraqi official said.

An airstrip at Hasaka is being prepared by the United States for this purpose.

The official warned, however, of the need for coordination with Russia, which brought its air force to Syria last September to shore up the Iran-backed rule of President Bashar al-Assad, and is using an airstrip in Qamishli further north, but focusing most of its fire on mainstream and other Islamist rebels rather than IS.

This “competition between the two superpowers is really very, very dangerous”, he said. “There must be coordination (around) the complex operations that will take place.”

LIBYA, NEW IS DESTINATION

Yet even in the unlikely event that all these plans go like clockwork, that alone would not put an end to IS.

The group, IS experts say, has become expert at defensive warfare, and is spreading its tentacles from Europe to North Africa.

Inside the recaptured city of Ramadi the Iraqi army found a warren of underground tunnels the jihadi forces used for shelter, mobility and escape. Mosul, a far bigger city with one million people and a river on one side, is heavily defended and tunneled, with berms, trenches and hidden bombs.

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the IS “caliph” still based near Mosul, has already begun to anticipate tactical reverses.

Arab and Western security sources say he has recently sent several hundred of his top lieutenants to Libya, to consolidate the existing IS bridgehead there amid the chaos of a splintering country, and to offset diminishing revenue in Syria and Iraq by creaming off Libyan oil resources.

Coalition dependence on Kurdish forces in both northern Syria and Iraq, and the Iraqi army’s reliance on Iran-backed Shi’ite militia up until the reconquest of Ramadi by regular forces, were and are being exploited by IS as a means to rally Sunni Arab grievances.

Battlefield success will count for little, officials and diplomats say, without political reconciliation and power-sharing to heal the wounds opened in the ethno-sectarian bloodletting that followed the overthrow of Saddam’s minority Sunni Arab rule in 2003.

AFTER MOSUL?

Islamic State, whose forerunner first emerged as a Sunni reaction to the U.S. installation of Shi’ite majority rule in Iraq, twisted the sectarian knife in the country.

But after the fall of Mosul, then prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, leader of the Shi’ite Islamist Dawa party, who had alienated the Sunnis by tearing up a power-sharing pact with them and the Kurds, was pushed aside. He was replaced by a more conciliatory Dawa leader, Haider al-Abadi.

Most observers give Abadi credit for trying to be more inclusive by negotiating oil revenue sharing with the Kurdistan Regional Government, proposing a National Guard, under which the different sects and ethnic groups would police their areas, and setting out a vision of a decentralized, federal Iraq.

Yet distrust of the Dawa is now so engrained it extends to Abadi. “The problem among the Shi’ites, especially in Dawa, is that there is a deep anti-Sunni feeling,” said one Iraqi leader.

But fear of a return to the Sunni domination of the Saddam era is widespread too, and fanned by IS.

“The National Guard law is rejected by the Shi’ites because the Sunnis will then have their own army and this will threaten the Shi’ite population even if they are dominant now,” said the Baghdad-based diplomat. “The Shi’ites fear the return of Sunni power.”

Yet Abadi has shown signs of independence, from his party and its Iranian patrons.

Baghdad is abuzz with the story of how the prime minister recently ejected Major General Qassem Soleimani from a national security council meeting. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander had until recently been photographed often on the frontlines in Iraq and Syria.

The critical question, however, is whether Abadi can build up the army and regular security forces enough to establish control over Shi’ite militias under the sway of Tehran, accused by Sunnis of human rights abuses when they spearheaded the attacks on Baiji, Tikrit and Diyala last year.

Even if Mosul works, Abadi will still have to move quickly to provide things his corrupt predecessors were unwilling or unable to give to Iraqi citizens in general and disgruntled Sunnis and Kurds in particular.

(Addtional reporting by Maher Chmaytelli and Stephen Kalin; editing by Janet McBride)

Iraqis running out of food and medicine in besieged Fallujah

BAGHDAD (Reuters) – Tens of thousands of trapped Iraqi civilians are running out of food and medicine in the western city of Fallujah, an Islamic State stronghold under siege by security forces, according to local officials and residents.

The Iraqi army, police and Iranian-backed Shi’ite militias – backed by air strikes from a U.S.-led coalition – late last year imposed a near total siege on Fallujah, located 30 miles west of Baghdad in the Euphrates river valley.

The city’s population is suffering from a shortage of food, medicine and fuel, residents and officials told Reuters by phone, and media reports said several people had died due to starvation and poor medical care. Insecurity and poor communications inside the city make those reports difficult to verify.

Sohaib al-Rawi, the governor of Anbar province where Fallujah is located, appealed to the coalition to air-drop humanitarian supplies to the trapped civilians. He said this was the only way to deliver aid after Islamic State mined the entrances to the city and stopped people leaving.

“No force can enter and secure (the delivery) … There is no option but for airplanes to transport aid,” he said in an interview with al-Hadath TV late on Monday, adding the situation was deteriorating by the day.

Fallujah – a long-time bastion of Sunni Muslim jihadists – was the first Iraqi city to fall to Islamic State, in January 2014, six months before the group that emerged from al Qaeda swept through large parts of northern and western Iraq and neighboring Syria.

Since recapturing the city of Ramadi – a further 50 km to the west – from Islamic State a month ago, Iraqi authorities have not made clear whether they will attempt to take Fallujah next or leave it contained while the bulk of their forces head north toward Mosul, the largest city under the militants’ control.

Falih al-Essawi, deputy chief of Anbar’s provincial council, said Islamic State had turned Falluja into “a huge detention center”.

“Security forces managed to control almost all areas around Falluja. This victory has helped to reduce Daesh (Islamic State) attacks outside the city, but it cost too much because civilians now are paying the price,” he said from Ramadi, warning of a potential humanitarian disaster.

A doctor at a hospital in Fallujah said medicine and supplies were running low, especially for post-natal care.

“What is the sin of those born after living in their mothers’ womb without nutrition or protection except from God?” she said.

Spokesmen for the Iraqi army, police and Iranian-backed Shi’ite militias besieging Fallujah were not immediately available to comment.

FREEZING WINTER

The U.S.-led coalition battling Islamic State estimates there are around 400 fighters from the ultra-hardline Sunni militant group in Fallujah, though some military analysts put the figure at closer to 1,000.

The coalition, which includes European and Arab powers, dropped food and water in 2014 to members of Iraq’s minority Yazidi community trapped on Mount Sinjar by Islamic State – a humanitarian crisis that sparked the international air campaign.

A Baghdad-based spokesman for the coalition did not rule out a similar operation in Fallujah but said Islamic State’s control of the city made it more challenging.

“The thing about an air-drop is it’s very difficult to control who gets it,” said U.S. Army Col. Steve Warren. “The conditions have to be such that the people who you want to receive the supplies are actually able to receive them and there’s no evidence that that’s the case in Fallujah.”

Rawi, the provincial governor, said Islamic State was using civilians as human shields in Falluja like it did in Ramadi – a tactic that slowed the advance of Iraqi forces.

He said media reports of up to 10 deaths due to starvation and insufficient medical care were accurate, but local officials could not provide details.

The price of food in Fallujah’s markets has rocketed and bakeries have begun rationing bread, residents told Reuters. They said fuel had become scarce during the cold winter months when temperatures drop close to freezing.

One man, who like the other residents declined to be named, said the last time Islamic State distributed basic food items a few weeks ago, much of it had already gone off.

Lise Grande, U.N. humanitarian coordinator in Iraq, described conditions in Falluja as “terrible”.

“We’re incredibly worried about the unconfirmed reports of people dying because of lack of medicine and widespread hunger,” she told Reuters.

The United Nations appealed on Sunday for $861 million to help Iraq meet a big funding gap in its 2016 emergency response to the humanitarian crisis caused by the war against Islamic State which has left 10 million people in need of urgent aid.

(Additional reporting by Ahmed Rasheed and Saif Hameed; Editing by Pravin Char)

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