GENEVA (Reuters) – A U.N. mediator said on Monday there was no “Plan B” other than a resumption of conflict in the Syrian war if the first of three rounds of talks which aim to agree a “clear roadmap” for Syria fail to make progress.

Syria faces a moment of truth, Staffan de Mistura said when he opened talks to end a five-year war which has displaced half the population, sent refugees streaming into Europe and turned Syria into a battlefield for foreign forces and jihadis.

The talks are the first in more than two years and come amid a marked reduction in fighting after last month’s “cessation of hostilities”, sponsored by Washington and Moscow and accepted by President Bashar al-Assad’s government and many of his foes.

But the limited truce, which excludes the powerful Islamic State and Nusra Front groups, is fragile. Both sides have accused each other of multiple violations, and they arrived in Geneva with what look like irreconcilable agendas.

The Syrian opposition says the talks must focus on setting up a transitional governing body with full executive power, and that Assad must leave power at the start of the transition. Damascus says Assad’s opponents are deluded if they think they will take power at the negotiating table.

The head of the government delegation, Bashar Ja’afari, described his first meeting with de Mistura on Monday as positive and constructive, adding he submitted a document entitled “Basic Elements for a Political Solution”.

De Mistura said some ideas had been floated in a meeting he described as a preparatory session, ahead of a further meeting on Wednesday which would focus on core issues. Asked about the gulf between the two teams, he said it was the nature of negotiations that both sides start off with tough positions.

In a sign of how wide that gulf is, de Mistura is meeting the two sides separately – at least initially.

The talks must focus on political transition, which is the “mother of all issues”, the U.N. envoy said before his talks with Ja’afari. Separate groups would keep tackling humanitarian issues and the cessation of hostilities.

“As far as I know, the only Plan B available is return to war, and to even worse war than we had so far,” he said.

PAST FAILURES

Several ceasefires and peace talks have been attempted since the conflict, which has killed 250,000 people, broke out five years ago this week.

Hundreds of U.N. peacekeepers deployed to Syria in 2012, but pulled out after fighting resumed. Peace talks in Geneva two years ago collapsed after making no progress.

De Mistura said that if he saw no willingness to negotiate in this latest search for a political agreement, he would hand the issue “back to those who have influence, and that is the Russian Federation, the USA … and to the Security Council”.

Russia’s military intervention in Syria in September helped turn the tide of war in Assad’s favor after months of gains in western Syria by rebel fighters, who were aided by foreign military supplies including U.S.-made anti-tank missiles.

The reduction in fighting has allowed aid to be brought to besieged areas, though the opposition says the deliveries to rebel-held territory fall well short of needs.

Clashes have taken place on many fronts. Government forces and allies on Monday fought insurgents including Islamist groups in western Syria, such as Latakia and Homs provinces, the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

Observatory director Rami Abdulrahman said there had been a general rise in the daily death toll after an initial drop that occurred at the start of the truce.

In the northern province of Aleppo, Kurdish forces fought with fighters from Islamist factions while rebel forces battled Islamic State militants, the Observatory said.

The emergence of Islamic State in eastern Syria and across the border in Iraq led Washington and its Western and Arab allies to launch an air campaign against the ultra-hardline Islamist group in 2014.

“CLEAR ROADMAP”

The opposition are holding out little hope that Geneva will bring them nearer to their goal of toppling Assad, accusing the government of preparing for more war. They also fear that the international focus on confronting Islamic State has led Washington to soften its opposition to the Syrian president.

Rebels say they are ready to fight on despite their recent defeats. They hope foreign backers – notably Saudi Arabia – will send them more powerful weapons including anti-aircraft missiles if the political process collapses.

The first round of talks are scheduled to run until around March 24, followed by a break of 7-10 days, then a second round of at least two weeks before another recess and a third round.

“By then we believe we should have at least a clear roadmap,” de Mistura said. “I’m not saying agreement, but a clear roadmap because that’s what Syria is expecting from all of us.”

He did not mention whether Kurdish leaders would be involved for the first time, but said that the “proximity” format of indirect talks gave him flexibility to hear as many voices as possible, and all Syrians should be given a chance.

The main Kurdish YPG militia, which controls a swathe of northern Syria and is backed by the United States in combat with Islamic State fighters, has so far been excluded from talks in line with the views of Turkey, which considers it a terrorist group.

“The rule of the game will be inclusiveness,” de Mistura said. “In fact, the list of those whom we are going to consult or meet, or will be part of — eventually, I hope — not only of proximity negotiations but in fact direct negotiations is going to be constantly updated.”

(Writing by Dominic Evans, editing by Peter Millership)

BEIRUT (Reuters) – Syria’s main opposition group said it would attend peace talks on Monday but accused the government of President Bashar al-Assad of preparing to escalate the war to strengthen its negotiating position.

The U.N.-brokered talks, which coincide with the fifth anniversary of the conflict, will take place in Geneva two weeks after the start of a ceasefire agreement.

The truce deal has reduced violence although not halted the fighting, with further hostilities reported in western Syria on Friday.

The High Negotiations Committee said it would attend the peace talks as part of its “commitment to international efforts to stop the spilling of Syrian blood and find a political solution”.

But in its statement on Friday it played down any chance of reaching agreement with the Syrian government to end the war that has killed more than 250,000 people and led to a refugee crisis in the Middle East and Europe.

Russia said it expected its ally Syria to attend, although Damascus has yet to publicly confirm it will do so. The Syrian foreign minister is expected to announce his government’s position on the talks on Saturday.

Peace talks convened two years ago collapsed because the sides were unable to agree an agenda: Damascus wanted a focus on fighting terrorism, the term it uses for the rebellion, while the opposition wanted to discuss a transitional government.

The latest talks are intended to focus on future political arrangements in Syria, a new constitution and elections, U.N. envoy Staffan de Mistura said.

The opposition HNC said it wanted the talks to concentrate on the establishment of an interim governing body with full executive powers.

HNC coordinator Riad Hijab said the group was “concerned with representing the just cause of the Syrian people … and investing in all available chances to alleviate the Syrian people’s suffering”.

“We know that they (the government) are committing crimes, and that they are preparing an air and ground escalation in the coming period,” he said, without elaborating.

HNC spokesman Salim al-Muslat said they expected a government escalation with the aim of strengthening Damascus’s position at the negotiating table.

“I believe this is a strategy,” he said.

“FAILING PROJECT”

A prominent Syrian dissident who is not part of the Saudi-backed HNC, Haytham Manna, said he would stay away from the talks, which he regarded as a “failing project”.

Manna, co-leader of the Syrian Democratic Council that includes Kurdish members, boycotted the last round of talks because the Kurds were not included.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said however that de Mistura should this time include representatives of Kurdish groups, which have been fighting in Syria.

Kurdish groups such as the PYD party and its affiliated YPG militia have not been invited so far. Regional power Turkey does not want them in Geneva and views the YPG as a terrorist group. Russia says the Kurds are a legitimate part of a future Syria, and should be at the table.

There has been speculation that they will be included in the coming round. De Mistura says he has not expanded the list of invitees, but the talks’ format gives him flexibility to consult whomever he wants.

PYD co-chair Saleh Muslim said Kurds should be included for any political settlement to work.

“We believe that if we are not present, the process will not be completed in the right way,” he said.

The cessation of hostilities agreement which came into force on Feb. 27 does not include the two main jihadist groups, Islamic State and the Nusra Front.

A source close to the government said the Syrian army, backed by Russian air strikes, is aiming to capture the historic city of Palmyra from Islamic State and open a road to the eastern province of Deir al-Zor, where the jihadists are also established.

The Russian air force has hit Palmyra with dozens of air strikes since Wednesday, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group.

Syrian government forces were on Friday battling Islamic State 7 km (4 miles) from the ancient site that fell to the jihadists last May.

Islamic State has blown up ancient temples and tombs since capturing Palmyra in what the U.N. cultural agency UNESCO has called a war crime.

The capture of Palmyra and further eastward advances into Deir al-Zor would mark the most significant Syrian government gain against Islamic State since the start of the Russian intervention last September.

Warplanes also hit areas of western Syria on Friday, the Observatory said. An air raid by the government side killed at least five people in a rebel-held area of Aleppo.

It also reported clashes between insurgents and government forces in the northern Latakia countryside.

In northern Aleppo province clashes continued between Kurdish fighters and insurgents, in a fight that has pitted the YPG and its allies against rebels supported through Turkey.

(Additional reporting by Tom Perry, Lisa Barrington, Tom Miles, Denis Dyomkin and Alexander Winning; Writing by Giles Elgood; Editing by Pravin Char)

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) – Major powers close to U.N.-brokered peace talks on Syria are discussing the possibility of a federal division of the war-torn country that would maintain its unity as a single state while granting broad autonomy to regional authorities, diplomats said.

The resumption of Geneva peace talks is coinciding with the fifth anniversary of a conflict that began with protests against President Bashar al-Assad before descending into a multi-sided civil war that has drawn in foreign governments and allowed the growth of Islamic State militants in Syria and Iraq.

Fighting in Syria has slowed considerably since a fragile “cessation of hostilities agreement” brokered by the United States and Russia came into force almost two weeks ago. But an actual peace deal and proper ceasefire remain elusive.

As the United Nations’ peace mediator Staffan de Mistura prepares to meet with delegations from the Syrian government and opposition, one of the ideas receiving serious attention at the moment is a possible federal division of Syria.

Neither the opposition nor government has confirmed its participation in the latest round of peace talks in Switzerland.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, a U.N. Security Council diplomat said some major Western powers, not only Russia, have also been considering the possibility of a federal structure for Syria and have passed on ideas to de Mistura.

“While insisting on retaining the territorial integrity of Syria, so continuing to keep it as a single country, of course there are all sorts of different models of a federal structure that would, in some models, have a very, very loose center and a lot of autonomy for different regions,” the diplomat said.

He offered no details about the models of a federal division of authority that could be applied to Syria. Another council diplomat confirmed the remarks.

OPPOSITION DISLIKES FEDERALISM

The biggest sticking point in the peace talks remains the fate of Assad, who Western and Gulf Arab governments insist must go at the end of a transition period envisioned under a roadmap hammered out in Vienna last year by major powers. Assad’s backers Russia and Iran say Syrians themselves must decide.

After five years of civil war that has killed 250,000 people and driven some 11 million from their homes, Syria’s territory is already effectively split between various parties, including the government and its allies, Western-backed Kurds, opposition groups and Islamic State militants.

This week, Syria’s Saudi Arabian-backed opposition rejected a suggestion by Russia, which like Iran supports Assad’s government and has intervened militarily on its side, that the peace talks could agree a federal structure for the country.

“Any mention of this federalism or something which might present a direction for dividing Syria is not acceptable at all. We have agreed we will expand non-central government in a future Syria, but not any kind of federalism or division,” Syrian opposition coordinator Riad Hijab said.

But the idea of federalism for Syria has not been ruled out. In an interview with Al Jazeera on Thursday, de Mistura said “all Syrians have rejected division (of Syria) and federalism can be discussed at the negotiations.”

In a September interview Assad did not rule out the idea of federalism when asked about it, but said any change must be a result of dialogue among Syrians and a referendum to introduce the necessary changes to the constitution.

“From our side, when the Syrian people are ready to move in a certain direction, we will naturally agree to this,” he said at the time.

The co-leader of Syrian Kurdish PYD party, which exercises wide influence over Kurdish areas of Syria, has made clear the PYD was open to the idea.

“What you call it isn’t important,” PYD’s Saleh Muslim told Reuters on Tuesday. “We have said over and over again that we want a decentralized Syria – call it administrations, call it federalism – everything is possible.”

The next round of Syria peace talks is not expected to run beyond March 24. After that round ends, there is expected to be a break of a week or 10 days before they resume.

(Additional reporting by Lisa Barrington and Tom Perry in Beirut and Tom Miles in Geneva; Editing by James Dalgleish)

BEIRUT/GENEVA (Reuters) – The Syrian opposition said on Wednesday there had been fewer breaches of a truce agreement by the government and its allies in the past day as a U.N. envoy unveiled plans to resume peace talks next week.

The “cessation of hostilities agreement” brokered by the United States and Russia has slowed the war considerably despite accusations of violations on all sides, preparing the ground for talks which the United Nations plans to convene in Geneva.

The talks will coincide with the fifth anniversary of a conflict that began with protests against President Bashar al-Assad before descending into a multi-sided war that has drawn in foreign governments and allowed the growth of Islamic State.

U.N. envoy Staffan de Mistura said he planned to launch substantive peace talks on Monday, focusing on issues of Syria’s future governance, elections within 18 months, and a new constitution.

While the opposition High Negotiations Committee (HNC) has yet to declare whether it will attend, spokesman Salem al-Muslat said it was positive that the talks would “start … with discussion of the matter of political transition”.

He said the HNC would announce its decision very soon.

The Syrian government, its position strengthened by more than five months of Russian air strikes, has also yet to say whether it will attend. There was no immediate response from Damascus to de Mistura’s remarks. The Syrian foreign minister is due to give a news conference on Saturday at noon.

Peace talks convened in Geneva two years ago collapsed as the sides’ were unable to agree an agenda: Damascus wanted a focus on fighting terrorism – the term it uses for the rebellion – while the opposition wanted talks on transitional government.

TALKS ABORTED

De Mistura aborted a previous attempt to hold talks on Feb. 3 and urged countries in the International Syria Support Group, led by the United States and Russia, to do more preparatory work.

The result was the cessation of hostilities which Western governments say has largely held since it came into effect on Feb. 27. It has been accompanied by more aid deliveries to opposition areas besieged by government forces, though fighting has continued in some important areas of northwestern Syria.

Rebel groups fighting to topple Assad had initially said they would support a two-week halt to the fighting. De Mistura said on Wednesday however that it was an “open-ended concept”.

The next round of talks would not run beyond March 24. There would then be a break of a week or 10 days before resuming.

Asked if the talks could be delayed further from an original start date of March 7, de Mistura said the format gave him a lot of flexibility.

Jan Egeland, who chairs the Syria humanitarian task force, said the United Nations had delivered aid to 10 of 18 besieged areas across the country in the last four weeks, and was working to overcome obstacles and reach remaining areas.

The truce agreement, accepted by Assad’s government and many of his enemies, was the first of its kind in a war that has killed more than 250,000 people and caused a major refugee crisis.

The agreement has not been directly signed by the warring parties and is less binding than a formal ceasefire. It does not cover Islamic State or the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front, whose fighters are deployed in western Syria in close proximity to rebel groups that have agreed to cease fire.

Russia says it has recorded opposition violations including supplies of weapons via Turkey to rebels in Syria.

FEWER VIOLATIONS

Muslat of the HNC said: “The violations of the truce were great at the start, but yesterday they were much fewer. There are perhaps some positive matters that we are seeing.”

Speaking to Reuters, he said a government blockade of the Damascus suburb of Daraya must be lifted in order to “pave the way to the start of negotiations”. He added this was not a condition for the attending talks but a humanitarian requirement.

Despite the relative success of the cessation of hostilities, the peace talks face great challenges, including the question of Assad’s future.

The opposition says Assad must be removed from power at the start of a transition, while some of his Western enemies have backed away from that position, saying he must go at some point.

Russia has said that the matter should not be predetermined and Syrians should be left to choose. Assad has meanwhile ruled out anything that contravene the constitution, including the idea of a transitional governing body sought by the opposition.

Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-JubeIr reiterated his government’s tough line on Assad, who has also been boosted by Iranian military support. Saudi Arabia, which is in conflict with Iran across the region, has been a major sponsor of the Syrian insurgency.

“The choice for Bashar al-Assad is to either leave through a political process or the Syrian people will continue to fight until militarily they oust him,” Jubeir said.

(Additional reporting by Lisa Barrington in Beirut and Stephanie Nebehay in Geneval; Writing by Tom Perry; Editing by Giles Elgood)