New conflicts threaten Syria after Islamic State defeat

Sheen Ibrahim, Kurdish fighter from the People's Protection Units (YPG) walks in Raqqa, Syria June 16, 2017. REUTERS/Goran Tomasevic

By Michael Georgy and John Walcott

RAQQA, Syria/WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Sheen Ibrahim’s track record fighting ultra-hardline militants explains U.S. President Donald Trump’s policy of arming Syrian Kurds like her as he seeks to eradicate Islamic State. It also highlights the risks.

Taught by her brother to fire an AK-47 at 15 and encouraged by her mother to fight for Syrian Kurdish autonomy, she says she has killed 50 people since she took up arms in Syria’s six-year-old civil war, fighting first al Qaeda, then crossing into Iraq to help Kurds there against Islamic State.

Now 26, she leads a 15-woman unit hunting down the hardline group in its global headquarters Raqqa, speeding through streets once controlled by the militants in a pick-up truck as fellow fighters comb through ruined buildings for booby traps.

The U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), spearheaded by the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia, have taken several parts of the northern Syrian town since their assault began this month.

This week U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis said Washington may arm the SDF for future battles against Islamic State while taking back weapons it no longer needs.

The plan is the “headline” of a still-unfinished stabilization plan for Syria by the Trump administration, said a U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The risk is that it causes new instability in a war in which outside powers are playing ever larger roles.

The U.S.-YPG relationship has infuriated Syria’s northern neighbor Turkey, a NATO ally which says the YPG is an extension of the Kurdish Workers Party, or PKK, designated terrorist by both Ankara and Washington for its insurgency against the Turkish state.

Turkey has sent troops into Syria, partly to attack Islamic State, but also to keep the YPG, which controls Kurdish-populated areas of northern Syria, from moving into an Arab and Turkmen area that would give it control of the whole frontier.

On Wednesday Ankara said its artillery had destroyed YPG targets after local Turkish-backed forces came under attack.

Turkey has recently sent reinforcements into Syria, according to the rebel groups it backs, prompting SDF concern it plans to attack Kurdish YPG forces. The SDF warned on Thursday of a “big possibility of open, fierce confrontation”.

“WE’LL DO WHAT WE CAN”

Syrian Kurdish leaders say they want autonomy in Syria, like that enjoyed by Kurds in Iraq, rather than independence or to interfere in neighboring states. They say Turkish warnings that YPG weapons could end up in PKK hands are unjustified.

“We were the victims of the nation state model and we have no desire to reproduce this model,” said Khaled Eissa, European representative of the PYD, the YPG’s political affiliate.

Ibrahim and other fighters interviewed by Reuters said they were not terrorists but would “stand up” to Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan. “Turkey is fighting us,” Ibrahim said. “Anyone who fights us, we will fight.”

Washington is working to calm tensions over its relationship with the YPG, which is also backed by Russia. “There is absolute transparency between Turkey and the United States on that subject,” said Major General Rupert Jones, the British deputy commander of the U.S.-led coalition fighting Islamic State.

But disarmament will not be easy, judging by the comments of YPG fighters on the ground. “We will not give up our weapons,” said a sniper aiming at Islamic State positions, who only gave her first name, Barkaneurin. “We need them to defend ourselves.”

Fellow fighter Maryam Mohamed agreed. “Erdogan is our biggest enemy, we cannot hand over our weapons,” she said.

One of the U.S. officials said Washington did not know exactly how many weapons the YPG has because some Arabs had joined its ranks, taking U.S.-supplied weapons with them, when their groups suffered setbacks on the battlefield.

“Loyalties are as variable as the battle lines and sometimes follow them,” the official said.

Asked about weapons recovery, Mattis, in his first public remarks on the issue, said: “We’ll do what we can,” while YPG spokesman Nouri Mahmoud emphasized the target was Islamic State. “We are fighting a global terrorist group,” he said.

Battlefield victory is tantalizingly close. U.S.-backed forces in neighboring Iraq announced on Thursday they had retaken Mosul, Islamic State’s largest stronghold and the twin capital, with Raqqa, of the “caliphate” it declared in 2014.

But the U.S. official and two others who also declined to be named, noted other huge obstacles to stabilizing Syria they said the administration was papering over.

Rebuilding Raqqa will need billions of dollars and an unprecedented level of compromise among groups long hostile to each other, all three officials said. One said Iranian forces backing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad were poised to exploit any setbacks.

Kurds are spearheading the attack on Raqqa, but a mainly Arab force is planned to maintain security in the overwhelmingly Arab town thereafter.

While Kurds and Arabs fight side by side against Islamic State, with the militants’ self-proclaimed caliphate shrinking, competition for territory will intensify.

“We are getting ourselves into the middle of another potential mess we don’t understand,” one of the U.S. officials said.

(Additional reporting by John Irish in PARIS, Dominic Evans in ANKARA and Tom Perry in BEIRUT; editing by Philippa Fletcher)

Civilians flee as Iraqi forces attack last Islamic State redoubt in Mosul

Armoured fighting vehicles of the Counter Terrorism Service maneuver at the positions of the Iraqi forces near the Grand al-Nuri Mosque at the Old City in Mosul, Iraq June 29, 2017. REUTERS/Erik De Castro

By Stephen Kalin

MOSUL, Iraq (Reuters) – Iraqi government forces attacked Islamic State’s remaining redoubt in Mosul’s Old City on Friday, a day after formally declaring the end of the insurgents’ self-declared caliphate and the capture of the historic mosque which symbolized their power.

Dozens of civilians fled in the direction of the Iraqi forces, mostly women and children, some wounded by insurgents fire, thirsty and tired.

The battles ahead will be difficult as most of the militants are foreigners expected to fight until the death. They are dug in among civilians, using them as human shields, Counter Terrorism Service (CTS) commanders in the city told Reuters.

CTS Major General Maan al-Saadi said it could take four to five days of fighting to capture the insurgents’ redoubt by the Tigris River, defended by about 200 fighters,

“The advance continues to Midan neighborhood,” he said. “Controlling it means we have reached the Tigris River.”

The insurgent position is several hundred meters wide and tens of thousands of civilians are trapped there in harrowing conditions, with little food, water, medicine and no access to health services, according to those who managed to flee.

Those who escaped on Friday streamed through alleyways near the Grand al-Nuri Mosque, which Islamic State fighters blew up a week ago.

Plumes of smoke billowed over the riverside districts amid artillery blasts and burst of gunfire. Western troops from the U.S.-led coalition were helping adjust artillery fire with air surveillance, he said.

Iraqi Prime Minister Hailer al-Abadi declared the end of Islamic States’ caliphate — which he called “a state of falsehoood”‘ — on Thursday after CTS captured the ground of the ruined 850-year-old mosque.

It was from the mosque’s pulpit that Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared his caliphate over parts of Syria and Iraq almost three years ago to the day.

The insurgents chose to blow it up rather than see their black flag taken down from its al-Hadba, or Hunchback, minaret where it had been flying since June 2014.

GRINDING WARFARE

The symbolic victory of the Iraqi forces was won after more than eight months of grinding urban warfare which displaced 900,000 people, about half the city’s pre-war population, and killed thousands of civilians, according to aid organizations.

A U.S.-led international coalition is providing air and ground support to the offensive, which army and federal police units are also taking part in, attacking from different directions.

The fall of Mosul would in effect mark the end of the Iraqi half of the IS caliphate, although the group still controls territory west and south of the city, ruling over hundreds of thousands of people. Its stronghold in Syria, Raqqa, is also under siege..

The group continues to occupy an area as big as Belgium across Iraq and Syria, according to IHS Markit, an analytics firm.

Al-Baghdadi’s speech from the Grand al-Nuri Mosque on July 4, 2014, was the first and only time he has revealed himself to the world.

He has left the fighting in Mosul to local commanders and is believed to be hiding in the border area between Iraq and Syria, according to U.S. and Iraqi military sources.

The group has moved its remaining command and control structures to Mayadin, in eastern Syria, U.S. intelligence sources said last week, without indicating if Baghdadi was also hiding in the same area.

The secretive Islamic State leader has frequently been

reported killed or wounded. Russia said on June 17 its forces might have killed him in an air strike in Syria. But Washington says it has no information to corroborate such reports and Iraqi officials have also been skeptical.

Graphic of Battle for Mosul http://tmsnrt.rs/2rEoDr4

(Writing by Maher Chmaytelli; Editing by Angus MacSwan)

U.S.-backed SDF sees big risk of clash with Turkey in northwest Syria

By Tom Perry

BEIRUT (Reuters) – The U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces warned on Thursday of the prospect of fierce confrontation with the Turkish army in northwestern Syria if it attacks SDF areas, and said this would undermine the assault on Islamic State at Raqqa.

Naser Haj Mansour, a senior SDF official, told Reuters the SDF had taken a decision to confront Turkish forces “if they try to go beyond the known lines” in the areas near Aleppo where the sides exchanged fire on Wednesday.

“Certainly there is a big possibility of open and fierce confrontations in this area, particularly given that the SDF is equipped and prepared,” he said. “If it (the Turkish army)attacks we will defend, and if it attacks there will be clashes.”

Turkey has recently deployed reinforcements into the area, according to Turkey-backed rebel groups, prompting SDF concern that Ankara is planning to attack nearby areas that are under SDF control.

The SDF is an alliance of Kurdish and Arab groups spearheaded by the YPG militia which Turkey views as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has waged a three-decade insurgency in Turkey.

The Turkish military said on Wednesday it had fired artillery at YPG positions south of the town of Azaz in what it said was a response to the YPG’s targeting of Turkey-backed rebels. Mansour said the SDF had responded to Turkish shelling.

On Thursday, Turkey’s deputy prime minister, Numan Kurtulmus, said it would retaliate against any cross-border gunfire from the YPG and not remain silent in the face of anti-Turkey activities by terrorist groups abroad.

Kurtulmus also reiterated Ankara’s opposition to the U.S. arming of YPG combatants and said U.S. officials would understand this was the “wrong path”.

Mansour said an attack on SDF-controlled areas would “do great harm” to the U.S.-backed Raqqa assault by drawing some SDF fighters away from front lines.

The SDF launched a long-anticipated assault on Raqqa city earlier this month. Mansour said SDF forces would soon completely besiege the city by closing the last remaining way out from the south. “There is a plan to impose a complete siege, but if this will take a day or two days, I can’t say,” he said.

Raqqa is bordered to the south by the River Euphrates.

He said that Islamic State fighters were focusing their efforts on defending certain key positions in the city, “meaning they are conducting fierce battles in some strategic positions”.

“This may be due to a shortage of numbers and ammunition,” he said. He also said the Islamic State was deploying fewer car bombs than in previous battles and this also indicated a shortage of supplies.

(Reporting by Tom Perry and Daren Butler; Editing by Mark Heinrich and Richard Balmforth)

Iraqi forces seize more ground in Mosul from Islamic State, PM sees victory soon

A member of Iraqi Federal Police carries his weapon at the frontline in the Old City of Mosul, Iraq June 27, 2017. REUTERS/Alaa Al-Marjani

By Stephen Kalin

MOSUL, Iraq (Reuters) – Iraqi forces on Tuesday pushed towards the river side of Mosul’s Old City, their key target in the eight-month campaign to capture Islamic State’s de-facto capital, and Iraq’s prime minister predicted victory very soon.

Iraqi forces, battling up to 350 militants dug in among civilians in the Old City, said federal police had dislodged IS insurgents from the Ziwani mosque and were only a few days away from ousting militants completely from the Old City.

“The victory announcement will come in a very short time,” Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said on his website on Monday evening.

“The operation is continuing to free the remaining parts of the Old City,” Lieutenant General Abdul-Wahab al-Saadi of the Counter Terrorism Service (CTS) told a Reuters correspondent near the frontline in the heart of the Old City.

Iraqi forces had about 600 meters (2,000 ft) of ground left to cover before reaching Mosul’s Corniche road along the western bank of the Tigris, federal police commander Lieutenant General Raed Shaker Jawdat told Iraqi State TV.

“In a few days our forces will reach Corniche and bring the battle to its conclusion,” said Jawdat.

The fall of the northern Iraqi city would mark the end of the Iraqi half of the “caliphate” proclaimed by Islamic State, though the militant group remains in control of large areas of both Iraq and Syria.

In Syria, the Islamic State-held capital of Raqqa, is virtually encircled by a U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led coalition.

Federal police and elite CTS units in Mosul were battling with IS fighters in the Old City’s maze of narrow alleyways, along with the army and interior ministry units.

Islamic State has lost about half the Old City since the battle for the historic district started ten days ago. About one sq km (0.4 sq mile) remained under its control, according to Iraqi state TV.

The army’s 16th infantry division seized on Tuesday the al-Mashahda quarter, in the northwestern corner of the Old City, and federal police took al-Bayd and Ras al-Jadda, in the southwestern quarter, military statements said.

Up to 350 militants are estimated by the Iraqi military to be dug in the Old City among civilians in wrecked houses and crumbling infrastructure. They are trying to slow the advance of Iraqi forces by laying booby traps and using suicide bombers and snipers.

Those residents who have escaped say many of the civilians trapped behind Islamic State lines — put at 50,000 by the Iraqi military – are in a desperate situation with little food, water or medicines.

A U.S.-led international coalition is providing air and ground support in the eight-month-old offensive.

HUMAN SHIELDS

The Iraqi government once hoped to take Mosul by the end of 2016, but fighting has dragged on as militants have reinforced positions in civilian areas, effectively using residents as human shields.

Hundreds of civilians who managed to escape as the forces advanced into the Old City gathered on the side of the road at the edge of western Mosul on Tuesday.

But hundreds of civilians have been killed in the past month as they tried to flee the Old City.

The militants last week destroyed the historic Grand al-Nuri Mosque and its leaning minaret from which their leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared a caliphate spanning parts of Iraq and Syria three years ago. The mosque’s grounds remain under the militants’ control.

Iraqi troops on Monday captured the al-Faruq quarter, facing the mosque, the military said.

Only a handful of districts remained to be cleared, al-Saadi said, standing atop a rooftop overlooking al-Faruq street which now marks the frontline, a few dozen meters (yards) from the old mosque.

Sporadic sniper fire could be heard, and an incoming rocket, as the troops used a drone to survey the insurgents’ defenses. The Iraqi forces started attacking the western side of Mosul in February, a month after taking the side located east of the Tigris.

About 850,000 people, more than a third of Mosul’s pre-war population, have fled, seeking refuge with relatives or in camps, according to aid groups.

Islamic State’s Baghdadi has left the fighting in Mosul to local commanders and is assumed to be hiding on the Iraqi-Syrian border. There has been no confirmation of Russian reports over the past days that he has been killed.

The group has carried out sporadic suicide bombings in parts of Mosul using sleeper cells. It launched a wave of such attacks late on Sunday, trying to take control of a district west of the Old City, Hay al-Tanak, and the nearby Yarmuk quarter.

Security forces blocked their attempted fight-back, al-Saadi said.

(Writing by Maher Chmaytelli; Editing by Richard Balmforth)

Turkey returns fire on YPG in Syria, warplanes hit militants in Iraq

FILE PHOTO: A general view shows the Kurdish city of Afrin, northwest Syria March 18, 2015. REUTERS/Mahmoud Hebbo/File Photo

ISTANBUL (Reuters) – Turkish forces retaliated with an artillery barrage overnight and destroyed Kurdish YPG militia targets after the group’s fighters opened fire on Turkey-backed forces in northern Syria, the military said on Wednesday.

It said Turkish warplanes separately struck Kurdish militants in northern Iraq on Wednesday, killing seven fighters from the PKK group which Ankara says is closely linked to the YPG.

The strikes came after Turkey’s defense minister warned that Ankara would retaliate against any threatening moves by the YPG and after reports that Turkey was reinforcing its military presence in northern Syria.

The United States supports the YPG in the fight against Islamic State in Syria, while NATO ally Turkey regards them as terrorists indistinguishable from militants from the outlawed PKK which is carrying out an insurgency in southeast Turkey.

Turkey’s army said YPG machine-gun fire on Tuesday evening targeted Turkey-backed Free Syrian Army elements in the Maranaz area south of the town of Azaz in northern Syria.

“Fire support vehicles in the region were used to retaliate in kind against the harassing fire and the identified targets were destroyed/neutralised,” the military statement said.

The boom of artillery fire could be heard overnight from the Turkish border town of Kilis, broadcaster Haberturk said. It was not clear whether there were casualties in the exchange of fire.

Ankara was angered by a U.S. decision in June to arm the YPG in the battle for Islamic State’s Raqqa stronghold. President Tayyip Erdogan said on Sunday that nations which promised to get back weapons from the YPG once Islamic State were defeated were trying to trick Turkey.

U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis on Tuesday left open the possibility of longer-term assistance to the YPG, saying the U.S. may need to supply them weapons and equipment even after the capture of Raqqa.

Ankara considers the YPG as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which is deemed a terrorist group by Turkey, the United States and the European Union.

The PKK has carried out an armed insurgency against the Turkish state since 1984 and more than 40,000 people, most of them Kurds, have died in the fighting.

Turkish warplanes on Wednesday morning destroyed PKK shelters and gun positions during air strikes in the Avasin-Basyan area of northern Iraq, killing seven militants planning an attack on Turkish border outposts, an army statement said.

Faced with turmoil across its southern border, Turkey last year sent troops into Syria to support Free Syrian Army rebels fighting both Islamic State and Kurdish forces who control a large part of Syria’s northern border region.

Erdogan has said Turkey would not flinch from taking tougher action against the YPG in Syria if Turkey believed it needed to.

(Reporting by Orhan Coskun, Tulay Karadeniz and Omer Berberoglu, Writing by Daren Butler and David Dolan,; Editing by Ed Osmond and Richard Balmforth)

Iraqi forces free hundreds of civilians in Mosul Old City battles as death toll mounts

Displaced civilians from Mosul's Old City, the last district in the hands of Islamic State militants, flee during fighting between Iraqi forces and Islamic State militants in western Mosul, Iraq June 24, 2017. REUTERS/Marius Bosch

By Marius Bosch

MOSUL, Iraq (Reuters) – Iraqi forces opened exit routes for hundreds of civilians to flee the Old City of Mosul on Saturday as they battled to retake the ancient quarter from Islamic State militants mounting a last stand in what was the de facto capital of their “caliphate”.

U.S.-trained urban warfare units were channeling their onslaught along two perpendicular streets that converge in the heart of the Old City, aiming to isolate the jihadist insurgents in four pockets.

The United Nations voiced alarm on Saturday at the rising death toll among civilians in the heavily populated Old City, saying as many as 12 were killed and hundreds injured on Friday.

“Fighting is very intense in the Old City and civilians are at extreme, almost unimaginable risk. There are reports that thousands, maybe even tens of thousands, of people are being held as human shields (by Islamic State),” Lise Grande, the U.N. humanitarian coordinator in Iraq, said in a statement. “Hundreds of civilians, including children, are being shot.”

Iraqi authorities are hoping to declare victory in the northern Iraqi city in the Muslim Eid holiday, which marks the end of the fasting month of Ramadan, during the next few days.

Helicopter gunships were assisting the ground thrust, firing at insurgent emplacements in the Old City, a Reuters correspondent reported from a location near the front lines.

The government advance was carving out escape corridors for civilians marooned behind Islamic State lines.

There was a steady trickle of fleeing families on Saturday, some with injured and malnourished children. “My baby only had bread and water for the past eight days,” one mother said.

At least 100 civilians reached the safety of a government-held area west of the Old City in one 20-minute period, tired, scared and hungry. Soldiers gave them food and water.

More than 100,000 civilians, of whom half are believed to be children, remain trapped in the crumbling old houses of the Old City, with little food, water or medical treatment.

The urban-warfare forces were leading the campaign to clear the Sunni Islamist militants from the maze of Old City alleyways, moving on foot house-to-house in locations too cramped for the use of armored combat vehicles.

Aid organizations and Iraqi authorities say Islamic State was trying to prevent civilians from leaving so as to use them as human shields. Hundreds of civilians fleeing the Old City have been killed in the past three weeks.

A U.S.-led international coalition is providing ground and air support in the eight-month-old campaign to seize Mosul, the largest city the militants came to control in a shock offensive in Iraq and neighboring Syria three years ago.

U.S.-supported Iraqi government offensives have wrested back several important urban centers in the country’s west and north from Islamic State over the past 18 months.

HISTORIC MOSQUE BLOWN UP BY MILITANTS

Military analysts said Baghdad’s campaign to recover Mosul gathered pace after Islamic State blew up the 850-year-old al-Nuri mosque with its famous leaning minaret on Wednesday.

The mosque’s destruction, while condemned by Iraqi and U.N. authorities as another cultural crime by the jihadists, gave troops more freedom to press their onslaught as they no longer had to worry about damaging the ancient site.

It was from the mosque that Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi announced himself to the world for the first time as the “caliph”, or ruler of all Muslims, on July 4, 2014. Mosul’s population at the time was more than 2 million.

Baghdadi fled into the desert expanse extending across Iraq and Syria in the early phase of the Mosul offensive, leaving the fighting there to local IS commanders, according to U.S. and Iraqi officials. Recent Russian reports that he was killed have not been confirmed by the coalition or Iraqi authorities.

The Iraqi government once hoped to take Mosul by the end of 2016, but the campaign dragged on as IS reinforced positions in inner-city neighborhoods of the city’s western half, carried out suicide car and motorbike bomb attacks, laid booby traps and kept up barrages of sniper and mortar fire.

By this weekend, the area still under IS control was less than 2 square km (0.77 sq miles) in extent, skirting the western bank of the Tigris River that bisects Mosul.

Islamic State retaliated for government advances on Friday evening with a triple bombing in a neighborhood in eastern Mosul, which Baghdad’s forces recaptured in January.

The attack was carried out by three people who detonated explosive belts, killing five, including three policemen, and wounding 19, according to a military statement on Saturday.

The fall of Mosul would mark the end of the Iraqi half of Islamic State’s “caliphate” as a quasi-state structure, but IS would still hold sizeable, mainly rural and small-town tracts of both Iraq and Syria.

In eastern Syria, Islamic State’s so-called capital, Raqqa, is now nearly encircled by a U.S.-backed Kurdish-led coalition.

(Writing by Maher Chmaytelli; editing by Mark Heinrich)

Trump’s son-in-law launches Middle East peace effort

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas meets with White House senior advisor Jared Kushner in the West Bank City of Ramallah June 21, 2017. Thaer Ghanaim/PPO/Handout via REUTERS

By Luke Baker

JERUSALEM (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser, Jared Kushner, met Israeli and Palestinian leaders on Wednesday to try to revive long-fractured Middle East peacemaking that Washington acknowledged will take some time.

Kushner, a 36-year-old real estate developer with little experience of international diplomacy or political negotiation, arrived in Israel on Wednesday morning and was due to spend barely 20 hours on the ground.

Video showed him giving Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a friend of Kushner’s father, a handshake and a hug as they prepared to sit down with the Israeli ambassador to Washington, the U.S. ambassador to Israel and other senior officials for preliminary discussions.

“This is an opportunity to pursue our common goals of security, prosperity and peace,” Netanyahu said. “Jared, I welcome you here in that spirit. I know of your efforts, the president’s efforts, and I look forward to working with you to achieve these common goals.”

Kushner replied: “The president sends his best regards and it’s an honor to be here with you.”

Kushner did not speak to the media or take questions, maintaining the circumspect profile he has established since Trump took office in January.

U.S. officials and Israeli leaders “underscored that forging peace will take time and stressed the importance of doing everything possible to create an environment conducive to peacemaking,” the White House later said in a statement.

Kushner traveled to Ramallah, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, for two hours of talks with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas after iftar, the evening meal that breaks the daily Ramadan fast.

Abbas spokesman Nabil Abu Rdainah said all major issues at the heart of the conflict were discussed.

U.S. officials called the trip part of an effort to keep the conversation going rather than the launching of a new phase in the peace process, saying that Kushner and Jason Greenblatt, the president’s special representative for international negotiations, are likely to return often.

Trump has described peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians as “the ultimate deal” and made it a priority. As well as receiving both Netanyahu and Abbas in the White House, he visited the region last month.

But it remains unclear what approach Trump, via Kushner and Greenblatt, plans to take on resolving one of the world’s most intractable conflicts.

For at least two decades, the goal of U.S.-led diplomacy has been a “two-state solution”, meaning an independent Palestinian state living side-by-side and at peace with Israel.

But when Trump met Netanyahu in Washington in February, he said he was not fixed on two states saying, “I’m looking at two-state and one-state, and I like the one that both parties like”.

12 ‘BULLET POINTS’

Netanyahu has in the past given conditional backing to two states. But ahead of his last election victory in 2015, he promised there would never be a Palestinian state on his watch, a remark seen as an attempt to shore up right-wing support.

In discussions with Greenblatt before Kushner’s visit, Palestinian sources said the phrase “two-state solution” had not been used.

Palestinian sources said that ahead of Kushner’s meeting with Abbas, they had been asked to draw up a list of 12 “bullet point” demands they would want met in any negotiations.

They saw it as a helpful exercise in focusing on core elements rather than an oversimplification of a complex issue.

Trump administration officials have said that if they are going to make progress on peace, they do not want to get bogged down in process but to move rapidly on tackling what are known as “final status” issues, the complexities around Jerusalem, Palestinian refugees, water resources, security and borders.

Those have long been thorny problems in the multiple rounds of peace negotiations launched by both Republican and Democratic presidents since the mid-1990s. It remains unclear what new approach Trump’s administration may have to untangling disputes that blend politics, land, religion and ethnicity and have defied resolution for 70 years.

(Additional reporting by Jeffrey Heller and Ali Sawafta; Editing by Howard Goller)

Syrians fear new Raqqa turmoil once Islamic State is defeated

FILE PHOTO: Graduates of a U.S.-trained police force, which expects to be deployed in Raqqa, dance during a graduation ceremony near Ain Issa village, north of Raqqa, Syria, June 17, 2017. REUTERS/Goran Tomasevic/File Photo

By Michael Georgy

RAQQA, Syria (Reuters) – U.S.-backed forces are closing in on Islamic State in Raqqa, but local Syrians who have escaped the battlefield are worried about what comes after the fight.

Dozens of them have volunteered to help rebuild the town once the militants have been defeated. The aim of organization they have joined, the Raqqa Civil Council (RCC) is to restore order and keep the peace in a place where further violence could fuel the rise of a new set of extremists with global ambitions.

The RCC was established in April by Kurdish and Arab allies of the U.S.-led coalition that began attacking Raqqa this month, to replace militant rule in a part of Syria long beyond President Bashar al-Assad’s control.

The campaign against Islamic State has accelerated since President Donald Trump took office in January with the militants now facing defeat in both Raqqa and Mosul in Iraq.

But the RCC says post-conflict planning in Raqqa has not kept pace. RCC volunteers say they have told the coalition it will take 5.3 billion Syrian lira (about $10 million) a year to restore power and water supplies, roads and schools and that they have nothing but small private donations so far.

The dangers of the failure to rebuild after conflict were clear in Iraq following the 2003 U.S.-led invasion. The post-conflict chaos opened the door to an insurgency that devastated the country and fueled the rise of Islamic State.

Mosul and Raqqa are both key centers of the caliphate the group proclaimed in 2014, but Raqqa is its operational headquarters, from where it plotted many of the deadly attacks that have targeted civilians around the world.

A U.S. official said Washington stood ready to fund the RCC, “provided they prove themselves inclusive and representative of the communities they govern”.

STABILITY

The RCC is a diverse team co-led by Arab tribal leader Sheikh Mahmoud Shawakh al-Bursan, who wears tribal robes, and Kurdish civil engineer Leila Mustafa, dressed in a green shirt and jeans.

Based in the village of Ain Issa, 50 km (30 miles) north of Raqqa, it has the support of the Syrian Democratic Forces, U.S.-backed Kurdish and Arab militia fighting Islamic State.

“This is a historic step for Raqqa,” Mustafa said, referring to the dozens of technocrats and tribal leaders at its headquarters, a former government water department building, preparing to govern Raqqa until free elections can be held.

“But there is destroyed infrastructure which must be rebuilt,” she said. “Schools must be opened. Water and power stations need funding.”

The lack of funding has left the council, whose 70 members include teachers, doctors, engineers and lawyers, with few resources to appease frustrated, displaced Raqqa residents looking for quick solutions when they return to the city.

Revenge killings of anyone associated with Islamic State are likely, and such violence could fuel another extremist militant movement, just as revenge killings of al-Qaeda-linked tribes in Iraq helped Islamic State spread its rule there from Raqqa.

Abdul Aziz al-Amir, one of 20 representatives of local tribes on the council, is optimistic they can foster social cohesion in the city, where rows of houses and shops have been pulverized by coalition air strikes and Islamic State bombs.

“People with disputes always came to us,” said Amir, wearing a checkered headdress and flowing robe. “We have the confidence of the people. We can help bring stability.”

Syria’s northern neighbor Turkey disagrees, arguing that a Raqqa council allied to Kurdish militia will expand the power of Syria’s Kurds, effective fighters during the six-year-old conflict who have established self-rule in Syria’s north.

Turkey has battled a three-decade old insurgency by Kurdish PKK fighters in its south east and says Syrian Kurdish militia are an extension of the outlawed PKK. It views their ascendancy as a security threat.

The main Syrian Kurdish groups say their goal is only autonomy in a future democratic and federal Syria. The council says some 80 percent of its members are Arabs, with two Arabs and a Kurd as its deputy leaders.

European countries share Turkish and U.S. concerns that the RCC acts independently from the Kurdish militia in Raqqa, an overwhelmingly Arab city, but are very worried about post-conflict limbo given the number of attacks on their soil.

“For the moment the United States is telling us, ‘we’re carrying out our war so will see afterwards,” a European diplomat said.

SCRATCH POLICE FORCE

In the meantime, the council is running mainly on small donations, often from individuals. “One girl sent us 30 euros through Western Union,” said RCC member Omar Aloush. “We thanked her.”

Sitting in his office surrounded by people asking him to help them return home, he holds up a petition from farmers for funds to fix irrigation canals destroyed by Islamic State.

“Fixing Raqqa will require millions and millions of dollars,” said Aloush who had watched as Islamic State destroyed his businesses; a hospital, a sports club, a language school and a restaurant.

“We don’t even have the cash to help them with a project that would cost about $15,000.”

With 200,000 people displaced from Raqqa and more expected to flee as fighting intensifies, some needs are basic.

Two western military personnel from the coalition appeared in Aloush’s office to tell him they could not pay for vehicles to transport food. Aloush told them the council would foot the bill.

Just outside Ain Issa, police recruits for Raqqa funded by the coalition engage in a traditional dance to celebrate their graduation, after just 12 days of training.Idris Mohamed, a Kurd who has been named as the future head of security in Raqqa, says 700 have been trained so far. “The goal is to train 3,000 but 10,000 would be great,” he said.

His main concern, aside from the Islamic State sleeper cells expected to stage attacks once coalition forces have control, is revenge killings that could bring a new wave of instability.

As fellow graduates enjoyed the music, young policeman Adel al-Arabi recounted how Islamic State had killed his brother and cousin. “I watched Daesh behead them in the street,” he said, explaining that he had joined the force to avenge their deaths.

(Additional reporting by Tom Perry in BEIRUT, Tulay Karadeniz and Dominic Evans in ANKARA and John Irish in PARIS, editing by Philippa Fletcher)

Qatar rift risks raising cost for Gulf debt issuers and slowing Saudi reforms

FILE PHOTO: Cars drive past the King Abdullah Financial District, north of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, March 1, 2017. REUTERS/Faisal Al Nasser/File Photo

By Saeed Azhar, Davide Barbuscia and Katie Paul

DUBAI/RIYADH (Reuters) – Qatar’s rift with its Arab neighbors is threatening to puncture investor appetite for the Gulf region as a whole, translating into potentially higher debt costs for governments and possibly slowing the pace of Saudi Arabia’s economic reforms.

Saudi, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt broke relations and transport ties with Qatar on June 5, alleging it finances terrorism, something Doha vehemently denies.

The move has thrown the region — which has been relatively stable, if troubled by Sunni and Shi’ite Muslim rivalry — into diplomatic turmoil that is now putting off investors.

“We were used to a relatively peaceful region and now the landscape has changed,” said Brigitte Le Bris, head of emerging debt and currencies at Paris-based Natixis Asset Management, which manages about 350 billion euros ($392 billion) in assets.

“We are not yet ready to increase our exposure to the region. We need to know whether this crisis is isolated to Qatar or it can spread and affect other countries or the crisis can worsen.”

One obvious area is sovereign debt, where the crisis has the potential of raising borrowing costs.

Following the sanctions, rating agency Standard & Poor’s downgraded Qatar while Fitch put it on its watchlist for a potential downgrade.

To date, foreign investors still appear to be comfortable holding Qatar paper due to the size of the country’s reserves and assets held by its sovereign wealth fund, Qatar Investment Authority.

Yields on Qatar’s sovereign dollar bonds maturing in 2026 spiked over 40 basis points after the sanctions were announced on June 5 but have now recovered nearly 20 bps.

Other Gulf Cooperation Council countries’ sovereign bonds saw some weakness in the immediate aftermath of the diplomatic crisis, but again have largely gone back to their pre-crisis levels.

How long this lasts, however, may depend on how long the crisis goes on, which may be “for years” according to one UAE minister..

The market’s take, however, is that the diplomatic crisis will be resolved via political mediation, said Max Wolman, senior portfolio manager at Aberdeen Asset Management in London.

“But if the likes of Bahrain, Oman or even Saudi Arabia were to issue these days, I think there would be a slight risk premium of 10 to 15 basis points in the primary to the secondary market because of current political uncertainty,” he said.

SAUDI REFORMS

Another risk could be to Saudi Arabia’s economic reforms, many of which depend on investor cash flowing in.

“Investors may become concerned about Saudi over-extending itself, as the war in Yemen continues and domestically reforms have adversely impacted consumer sentiment,” Asha Mehta, portfolio manager at Acadian Asset Management.

A senior banker, who has done extensive investment banking work in the Middle East, pointed to the high-profile listing of oil company Aramco as a potential issue.

“If the situation continues like this and they planned their IPO, they would be bombarded with questions on this (political upheaval),” he told Reuters, asking not to be named.

Even though the Aramco IPO is not expected until 2018, Saudi Arabia was preparing the sale of government stakes in airports, healthcare and educational firms, aiming to raise $200 billion.

The privatization is part of the reforms to reduce Saudi Arabia’s dependence on oil, after its price plunge hurt the kingdom’s economy and stretched its finances.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch in a recent note said geopolitics may delay the reforms, although not derail them.

Saudi’s reform process could get some impetus, however, from the announcement on Wednesday that Mohammed bin Salman will become the crown prince, replacing his cousin in a sudden announcement that confirms Saudi Arabia King Salman’s 31-year-old son as next ruler of the kingdom.

MBS, as he is known, was behind the sweeping economic reforms aimed at ending the kingdom’s “addiction” to oil, part of his campaign.

Brent was unchanged at $46.02 barrel at 0651 GMT on Wednesday at multi-month lows after falling nearly 2 percent in the previous session to its lowest settlement since November as investors discounted evidence of strong compliance to a deal to cut a global output.

(additional reporting by Marc Jones in London, and Tom Arnold in Dubai Editing by Jeremy Gaunt)

Exclusive: Trump seen hardening line toward Pakistan after Afghan war review

U.S. President Donald Trump walks to the White House in Washington, U.S. following his arrival from Camp David June 18, 2017. REUTERS/Eric Thayer

By Phil Stewart and Idrees Ali

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Donald Trump’s administration appears ready to harden its approach toward Pakistan to crack down on Pakistan-based militants launching attacks in neighboring Afghanistan, U.S. officials tell Reuters.

Potential Trump administration responses being discussed include expanding U.S. drone strikes, redirecting or withholding some aid to Pakistan and perhaps eventually downgrading Pakistan’s status as a major non-NATO ally, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Some U.S. officials, however, are skeptical of the prospects for success, arguing that years of previous U.S. efforts to curb Pakistan’s support for militant groups have failed, and that already strengthening U.S. ties to India, Pakistan’s arch-enemy, undermine chances of a breakthrough with Islamabad.

U.S. officials say they seek greater cooperation with Pakistan, not a rupture in ties, once the administration finishes a regional review of the strategy guiding the 16-year-old war in Afghanistan.

Precise actions have yet to be decided.

The White House and Pentagon declined to comment on the review before its completion. Pakistan’s embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

“The United States and Pakistan continue to partner on a range of national security issues,” Pentagon spokesman Adam Stump said.

But the discussions alone suggest a shift toward a more assertive approach to address safe havens in Pakistan that have been blamed for in part helping turn Afghanistan’s war into an intractable conflict.

Experts on America’s longest war argue that militant safe havens in Pakistan have allowed Taliban-linked insurgents a place to plot deadly strikes in Afghanistan and regroup after ground offensives.

Although long mindful of Pakistan, the Trump administration in recent weeks has put more emphasis on the relationship with Islamabad in discussions as it hammers out a the regional strategy to be presented to Trump by mid-July, nearly six months after he took office, one official said.

“We’ve never really fully articulated what our strategy towards Pakistan is. The strategy will more clearly say what we want from Pakistan specifically,” the U.S. official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Other U.S. officials warn of divisions within the government about the right approach and question whether any mix of carrots and sticks can get Islamabad to change its behavior. At the end of the day, Washington needs a partner, even if an imperfect one, in nuclear-armed Pakistan, they say.

The United States is again poised to deploy thousands more troops in Afghanistan, an acknowledgment that U.S.-backed forces are not winning and Taliban militants are resurgent.

Without more pressure on militants within Pakistan who target Afghanistan, experts say additional U.S. troop deployments will fail to meet their ultimate objective: to pressure the Taliban to eventually negotiate peace.

“I believe there will be a much harder U.S. line on Pakistan going forward than there has been in the past,” Hamdullah Mohib, the Afghan ambassador to the United States, told Reuters, without citing specific measures under review.

Kabul has long been critical of Pakistan’s role in Afghanistan.

Pakistan fiercely denies allowing any militants safe haven on its territory. It bristles at U.S. claims that Pakistan’s spy agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) directorate, has ties to Haqqani network militants blamed for some of the deadliest attacks in Afghanistan.

“What Pakistan says is that we are already doing a lot and that our plate is already full,” a senior Pakistani government source told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The source doubted the Trump administration would press too hard, saying: “They don’t want to push Pakistan to abandon their war against terrorism.”

Pakistani officials point towards the toll militancy has taken on the country. Since 2003, almost 22,000 civilians and nearly 7,000 Pakistani security forces have been killed as a result of militancy, according to the South Asia Terrorism Portal, which tracks violence.

Experts say Pakistan’s policy towards Afghanistan is also driven in part by fears that India will gain influence in Afghanistan.

IS PAKISTAN AN ALLY?

Nuclear-armed Pakistan won the status as a major non-NATO ally in 2004 from the George Bush administration, in what was at the time seen in part as recognition of its importance in the U.S. battle against al Qaeda and Taliban insurgents.

The status is mainly symbolic, allowing limited benefits such as giving Pakistan faster access to surplus U.S. military hardware.

Some U.S. officials and experts on the region scoff at the title.

“Pakistan is not an ally. It’s not North Korea or Iran. But it’s not an ally,” said Bruce Riedel, a Pakistan expert at the Brookings Institution.

But yanking the title would be seen by Pakistan as a major blow.

“The Pakistanis would take that very seriously because it would be a slap at their honor,” said a former U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Lisa Curtis, senior director for South and Central Asia at the National Security Council, co-authored a report with Husain Haqqani, Pakistan’s former ambassador to Washington, in which they recommended the Trump administration warn Pakistan the status could be revoked in six months.

“Thinking of Pakistan as an ally will continue to create problems for the next administration as it did for the last one,” said the February report.

It was unclear how seriously the Trump administration was considering the proposal.

The growing danger to Afghanistan from suspected Pakistan-based militants was underscored by a devastating May 31 truck bomb that killed more than 80 people and wounded 460 in Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul.

Afghanistan’s main intelligence agency said the attack – one of the deadliest in memory in Kabul – had been carried out by the Haqqani network with assistance from Pakistan, a charge Islamabad denies.

Washington believes the strikes appeared to be the work of the Haqqani network, U.S. officials told Reuters.

U.S. frustration over the Haqqani’s presence in Pakistan has been building for years. The United States designated the Haqqani network as a terrorist organization in 2012. U.S. Navy Admiral Mike Mullen, then the top U.S. military officer, told Congress in 2011 that the Haqqani network was a “veritable arm” of the ISI.

The potential U.S. pivot to a more assertive approach would be sharply different than the approach taken at the start of the Obama administration, when U.S. officials sought to court Pakistani leaders, including Army chief General Ashfaq Kayani.

David Sedney, who served as Obama’s deputy assistant secretary of defense for Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asia from 2009 to 2013, said the attempt to turn Islamabad into a strategic partner was a “disaster.”

“It didn’t affect Pakistan’s behavior one bit. In fact, I would argue it made Pakistan’s behavior worse,” Sedney said.

MORE DRONES, CASH CUT-OFF

Pakistan has received more than $33 billion in U.S. assistance since 2002, including more than $14 billion in so-called Coalition Support Funds (CSF), a U.S. Defense Department program to reimburse allies that have incurred costs in supporting counter-insurgency operations.

It is an important form of foreign currency for the nuclear-armed country and one that is getting particularly close scrutiny during the Trump administration review.

Last year, the Pentagon decided not to pay Pakistan $300 million in CSF funding after then-U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter declined to sign authorization that Pakistan was taking adequate action against the Haqqani network.

U.S. officials said the Trump administration was discussing withholding at least some assistance to Pakistan.

Curtis’ report also singled out the aid as a target.

But U.S. aid cuts could cede even more influence to China, which already has committed nearly $60 billion in investments in Pakistan.

Another option under review is broadening a drone campaign to penetrate deeper into Pakistan to target Haqqani fighters and other militants blamed for attacks in Afghanistan, U.S. officials and a Pakistan expert said.

“Now the Americans (will be) saying, you aren’t taking out our enemies, so therefore we are taking them out ourselves,” the Pakistan expert, who declined to be identified, said.

Pakistan’s army chief of staff last week criticized “unilateral actions” such as drone strikes as “counterproductive and against (the) spirit of ongoing cooperation and intelligence sharing being diligently undertaken by Pakistan”.

(Additional reporting by Josh Smith in Kabul, Drazen Jorgic in Islamabad and John Walcott in Washington; Editing by Yara Bayoumy and Howard Goller)