The Jim Bakker Show

Oil price slides on prospect of rising U.S. production

By Ahmad Ghaddar

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices fell on Wednesday on expectations that U.S. producers would boost output, just as OPEC signaled that a global supply-reduction deal will shrink the oil glut this year.

Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, were down 75 cents $54.72 a barrel at 1230 GMT.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were trading down 81 cents at $51.67 per barrel.

U.S. shale production is set to snap a three-month decline in February, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday, as energy firms boost drilling activity with crude prices hovering near 18-month highs.

February production will edge up 40,750 barrels per day (bpd) to 4.748 million bpd, the EIA said. In January, it was expected to drop by 5,900 bpd.

“It’s the eternal question about the current flat price and what it does to U.S. crude oil production,” Petromatrix oil strategist Olivier Jakob said.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, excluding Indonesia, pumped 33.085 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, according to figures OPEC collects from secondary sources, down 221,000 bpd from November, OPEC said in a monthly report on Wednesday.

OPEC cut its forecast of supply in 2017 from non-member countries following pledges by Russia and other non-members to join OPEC in limiting output.

OPEC now expects non-OPEC supply to rise by 120,000 bpd this year, down from growth of 300,000 bpd last month, despite an upwardly revised forecast of U.S. supply.

Under the agreement, OPEC, Russia and other non-OPEC producers have pledged to cut oil output by nearly 1.8 million bpd, initially for six months, to bring supplies back in line with consumption.

The output cuts agreed by OPEC and others are likely to come largely from field and refinery maintenance, BMI Research said in a note. It said oil producers are expected to use lower volumes needed for domestic power generation in a bid to maintain export volumes.

“Sticking to output targets is important but export volumes from the participating countries are a much better indicator of how the cuts will affect the market,” it said.

“Participating members are keen not to sacrifice vital export revenue so are trying to find ways to limit domestic crude usage in order to prioritize filling their contracts to foreign refiners.”

A committee responsible for monitoring compliance with the agreement meets in Vienna on Jan. 21-22.

(Additional reporting by Naveen Thukral in Singapore. Editing by Jane Merriman and David Evans)

Oil prices down, but set for biggest yearly gain since 2009

A worker fills a tank with subsidized fuel at a fuel station in Jakarta

By Ethan Lou

(Reuters) – Oil prices were down on Friday, but were still on track for their biggest annual gain since 2009 after OPEC and other major producers agreed to cut output to reduce a global supply overhang that has depressed prices for two years.

U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 25 cents at $53.52 a barrel by 9:38 a.m. EST on Friday, while Brent fell 26 cents to $56.59.

Brent has risen about 50 percent this year and WTI has climbed around 43 percent, the largest annual gains since 2009, when Brent and WTI rose 78 percent and 71 percent respectively.

Oil prices have more than halved since the summer of 2014, when it was above $100 a barrel. The fall in prices due to oversupply, in part thanks to the U.S. shale oil revolution, was accentuated later that year when Saudi Arabia rejected any OPEC deal to cut output and instead fought for market share.

But a new agreement to reduce production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), struck over three months from September this year, marks a return to the 13-country group’s old objective of defending prices.

Oman told some customers it will reduce term allocations by 5 percent in March, but did not say whether the supply reduction would continue after that.

Although doubts remain as to the production cuts’ effectiveness in implementation, the rise in prices can be seen as “proof of international credibility,” for OPEC and partners, said Igor Yusufov, founder of the Fund Energy investment firm and a former Russian energy minister.

Equally as important to oil prices next year will be the development of demand globally, and major forecasters diverge in their predictions.

“We see a big variation in demand growth assessments for 2017, ranging from +1.22 million bpd (barrels per day) … to +1.57 million b/d,” analysts at JBC said in a note to clients.

“Overall, all forecasters agree that Asia will remain the main engine for demand growth.”

Oil will gradually rise towards $60 per barrel by the end of 2017, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday, with further upside capped by a strong dollar, a likely recovery in U.S. oil output, and possible non-compliance with agreed cuts.

The market on Friday shrugged off an unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories, which rose 614,000 barrels in the week to Dec. 23 according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data. Analysts had expected a decrease of 2.1 million barrels.

(Reporting by Ethan Lou in Kingston, Ontario; Additional reporting by Sabina Zawadzki in London and Mark Tay in Singapore; Editing by Dale Hudson and Chizu Nomiyama)

Highlights: Russian President Putin’s end-of-year news conference

Journalists listen to Russian President Vladimir Putin during his annual end-of-year news conference in Moscow, Russia, December 23,

MOSCOW (Reuters) – The following are highlights from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annual end-of-year news conference.

ON U.S. POLITICS

“The party that is called the Democrats has clearly forgotten the original meaning of that name.”

“The use of administrative resources (by the Democrats) is absolutely shameless.”

“Outstanding figures in American history from the ranks of the Democratic Party would likely be turning in their graves. Roosevelt certainly would be.”

“They (the Democrats) are losing on all fronts and looking elsewhere for things to blame. In my view this, how shall I say it, degrades their own dignity. You have to know how to lose with dignity.”

ON WHAT HE WOULD ASK DONALD TRUMP

“It’s hard to say. The U.S. President-elect should first have the opportunity to form his team in an orderly way. Without that, simply having unprepared meetings is not productive. What will the questions be? Questions about the normalization of our relations. Mr Trump did after all say during the election campaign that he thought it right to normalize U.S.-Russia links and said it would not get worse. Because they cannot get any worse, I agree with him on that. We’ll think together about how to make the situation better.”

ON DONALD TRUMP AND THE MILITARY

“In the course of his election campaign he (Trump) spoke about the necessity of strengthening the U.S. nuclear arsenal, and strengthening the armed forces. There’s nothing unusual here. To be honest, I’m a bit surprised by the words of certain other official representatives of the current administration who have for some reason set about proving that the armed forces of the United States are the most powerful in the world. No-one disputed that.”

“If anyone is unleashing an arms race it’s not us … We will never spend resources on an arms race that we can’t afford.”

ON PARTICIPATION IN ELECTIONS IN 2018

“When the time is ripe (I’ll say). I will look at what is happening in the country and in the world, and based on the results of what we have done and what we can do the decision will be made on whether I will participate in upcoming elections for the Russian president.”

ON THE ECONOMY

“(Economic) growth is happening thanks to certain sectors of the economy – machine building, chemicals, manufacturing and agriculture.”

“We saw some economic growth in November … This year we will probably have minus 0.5-0.6 percent (economic growth).”

ON INFLATION

“This year (inflation) will be significantly less than 6 percent … most likely in the region of 5.5 percent – this is a record low inflation rate, and gives us cause to expect that we will be able to reach our target and very soon get to inflation of 5 percent and then 4 percent.”

ON THE BUDGET DEFICIT

“The budget deficit will be a bit bigger .. 3.7 percent. In my view this is an absolutely acceptable amount because, among other reasons, we have preserved a positive external trade balance – more than 70 billion dollars (and) we have preserved our reserves … the central bank’s gold and forex reserves have even grown, and are now a little over 385 (billion dollars). Judging by that measure everything is fine. It’s a good safety margin.”

ON OPEC AND OIL PRICES

“We think that in the second half of 2017 the surplus of oil in the market will disappear and the oil price will stabilize. We are counting on a stabilization (of prices) at today’s level.”

“It (Russian oil production cuts agreed with OPEC) will be a smooth reduction that will hardly affect our overall output. This is perfectly acceptable to us, and we are counting on a rise in prices, which has already happened … a difference in the oil price of $10 will mean extra revenues to the budget of 1.75 trillion rubles ($28.65 billion) and an extra 750 billion rubles of income for oil companies, despite lower output. So at the end of the day everyone ends up winning.”

ON DOPING

“In this area transparency is absolutely essential … Undoubtedly there is a certain political element in all these issues. Sport should be cleansed, along with culture, of any sort of politics. Sport and culture are things that should unite people and not divide them.”

ON UKRAINE AND CRIMEA

“I am sure that sooner or later there will be a normalization of relations with Ukraine, and it (a bridge between Russian and Crimea) will be very beneficial to the development of Russia-Ukraine relations and future commercial and humanitarian links.”

ON PENSIONS

“All the necessary money is in place next year so we can from Feb.1 increase pensions in line with the rate of inflation in 2016.”

ON ALEPPO

“The president of Turkey and the leaders of Iran (also) played a huge role in this (managing the situation around Aleppo). I don’t know if this will sound immodest, but without our participation it would have been impossible.”

($1 = 61.0790 rubles)

(Reporting by Moscow Newsroom)

Oil prices rise as Middle East producers confirm supply cuts

A motorist holds a fuel pump at a Gulf petrol station in London Apri

By Sabina Zawadzki

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices rose on Tuesday, supported by strong demand in Asia and supply cuts by Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar as part of production curbs organized by OPEC and other exporters.

But traders said the market was pressured by investors closing financial positions that profited from strong gains the day before.

International Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate flirted with negative territory in early European trading. By 1420 GMT, Brent was up 40 cents at $56.09 a barrel, while WTI was up 34 cents $53.17.

Traders said there was significant profit-taking after oil shot to mid-2015 highs earlier this week following a deal reached by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other exporters led by Russia to cut output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd).

But they added that oil markets were still broadly supported by the arrangement to crimp output.

“The market is putting a lot of importance on the commentaries coming out of OPEC and non-OPEC (and) the market is giving OPEC the benefit of the doubt that cuts will be implemented and achieved,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at Sydney’s CMC Markets.

However, analysts warned prices would turn fast if the market believed compliance was lacking.

“The plan was designed on Nov. 30. The foundation was laid down on Dec. 10. The construction will start on Jan. 1. The following three to six months will provide us with an answer as to whether the foundation is strong enough to hold the building or will it collapse like a house of cards,” PVM analysts wrote.

In a sign that producers are acting on their plans to cut output, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co told customers it would reduce Murban and Upper Zakum crude supplies by 5 percent and Das crude exports by 3 percent.

Kuwait Petroleum Corp notified customers of a cut in contractual crude supplies for January, as did Qatar Petroleum.

Meanwhile, China’s November crude output fell 9 percent from a year earlier to 3.915 million bpd, data showed on Tuesday. Production recovered from October’s 3.78 million bpd, however, which was the lowest in more than seven years.

China’s refinery throughput hit a record in November of 11.14 million bpd, up 3.4 percent year-on-year.

“Declines in Chinese … crude oil output and expansion of its strategic crude reserves underpin our view for China’s crude oil imports to strengthen,” BMI Research said.

In India, fuel demand rose 12.1 percent year-on-year in November.

(Additional reporting by Henning Gloystein and Keith Wallis in Singapore; Editing by Dale Hudson and Louise Heavens)

Oil surges to one-and-a-half-year high, Fed rate increase looms

A gas station attendant pumps fuel into a customer's car at PetroChina's petrol station in Beijing, China,

By Marc Jones

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices surged to their highest since mid-2015 and U.S. Treasury yields hit a more than two-year peak on Monday after the world’s top crude producers agreed to the first joint output cut since 2001.

Coming at the start of a week when the United States is expected to raise interest rates for the only the second time since the global financial crisis, the weekend agreement between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and key non-OPEC states set the markets alive.

Brent oil futures soared 5 percent to top $57 a barrel for the first time since July 2015 and U.S. crude leapt above $54 a barrel to send global inflation gauges spiking as well.

There was particular surprise as Saudi Arabia, the world’s number one producer, said it may cut its output even more than it had first suggested at an OPEC meeting just over a week ago.

“The original OPEC deal pointed to a fairly lumpy 3 percent cut (in production), so this suggests there is a bit more upside for oil prices,” said Neil Williams, chief economist at fund manager Hermes.

On the rise in bond yields, which tend to set global borrowing costs, he added: “The Fed hike is mostly baked in so when we do get it, it will be more about the statement.”

European oil companies jumped more than 2 percent on the oil surge and helped the pan-regional STOXX 50 index add 0.1 percent, having just had its best week in exactly five years.

Bond markets in contrast were under heavy pressure. Euro zone government bond yields were sharply higher with German Bunds up 5 basis points at 0.40 percent as U.S. yields topped 2.5 percent for the first time since October 2014.

“We have seen OPEC and non-OPEC producers agreeing, which is boosting reflation expectations around the world,” said Chris Weston, an institutional dealer with IG Markets.

In another sign of the reflation trade, breakeven rates –the gap between yields of five-year U.S. debt and a matching tenor in inflation-protected securities — were at two-month highs.

Wall Street futures, meanwhile, pointed to the main U.S. indexes barely budging when they resume, having enjoyed an uninterrupted gain of nearly 4 percent over the past six sessions.

FED UP

Focus was also on the currency markets as the dollar rose to its highest since February against the Japanese yen, before what is almost certain to be the first rate hike of the year from the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

Japan’s yen also tends to suffer when oil prices rise, since the country is a major importer.

The Norwegian crown, Canadian dollar and Russia rouble were the big gainers from the oil deal. The rouble rose almost 2 percent against both the dollar and euro as Russia shares, which have rocketed almost 90 percent since January, hit the latest in a string of record highs.

Overnight in Asia, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 0.5 percent after posting its biggest weekly rise in nearly three months last week.

China stocks suffered their biggest fall in six months as blue chips were knocked by fresh regulatory curbs to rein in insurers’ aggressive stock investments and rising bond yields prompted profit-taking in equities.

The blue-chip CSI300 index fell 2.4 percent, to 3,409.18 points, while the Shanghai Composite Index lost 2.5 percent to 3,152.97 points.

China’s insurance regulator, which recently warned it would curb “barbaric” acquisitions by insurers, said late on Friday it had suspended the insurance arm of China’s Evergrande Group from conducting stock market investment.

Concerns were also rumbling about U.S.-Sino relations after Donald Trump re-ignited controversy over Taiwan.

“I fully understand the ‘one China’ policy, but I don’t know why we have to be bound by a ‘one China’ policy unless we make a deal with China having to do with other things, including trade,” Trump said in an interview with Fox News.

Emerging markets are already bracing for a difficult run if U.S. rate hikes push up the dollar and global bond yields.

Turkey’s lira has borne the brunt of much of the pressure in recent weeks, and it took another 1 percent hit alongside a sharp fall in Turkish bonds after data showed the country’s economy suffering its first contraction since 2009.

Gold, meanwhile, which had a bumper first half of 2016, hit its lowest level since early February at $1,152 an ounce.

(Additional reporting by Saikat Chatterjee in Hong Kong, editing by Larry King)

Dow set to open at record high; oil hits $55

Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange

By Yashaswini Swamynathan

(Reuters) – The Dow was poised to open at an all-time high on Monday, as oil prices topped $55 a barrel for the first time in 16 months, and investors shrugged off the defeat of a referendum in Italy for constitutional reforms.

Futures lost ground slightly on Sunday after Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi said he would resign following the rejection.

However, world stocks, including Italian shares, reversed course to trade higher on Monday as investors bet against immediate snap elections in the country.

Brent crude prices were up 0.8 percent, after touching a high of $55.33, taking the total gains to 19 percent since Wednesday, when OPEC and other producers struck a deal to limit output to prop up prices. [O/R]

The Dow will open at a record intraday high, its eighth since Nov. 10, if active trading follows movement in futures. The index has marked four straight weeks of gains, benefiting from investors’ rotation into sectors such as financials, which are likely to gain from President-elect Donald Trump’s policies.

“You’ve got a very split tape with some sectors working well, like the financials and transports, while the rest of the market is not working well,” said Adam Sarhan, chief executive at Orlando, Florida-based 50 Park Investments.

However, Wall Street closed little changed on Friday as investors booked profits off bank stocks, despite a strong payrolls report that strengthened the prospects of an interest rate hike next week.

Dow e-minis <1YMc1> were up 73 points, or 0.38 percent, at 8:28 a.m. ET (130 GMT), with 57,797 contracts changing hands on Monday.

S&P 500 e-minis <ESc1> were up 6.5 points, or 0.3 percent, with 249,606 contracts traded.

Nasdaq 100 e-minis <NQc1> were up 17.5 points, or 0.37 percent, on volume of 39,369 contracts.

An Institute of Supply Management report is likely to show activity in the U.S. services sector rose slightly in November from the previous month. The report is due at 10:00 a.m. ET (1500 GMT)

New York Federal Reserve President and permanent voting member William Dudley said Trump’s election had created “considerable” uncertainty on the policies he would pursue so it was too soon for the Fed to judge whether its plan for gradual interest rate hikes needs adjusting.

Shares of Energy Transfer <ETP.N> dropped 6.9 percent to $32 after the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers turned down a permit for the company’s controversial pipeline project running through North Dakota.

FairPoint <FRP.O> shares jumped 14.4 percent after Consolidated Communications <CNSL.O> said it would buy the broadband service provider in an all-stock deal valued at $1.5 billion, including debt.

Chesapeake Energy <CHK.N> rose 4.2 percent to $7.53 after the U.S. natural gas producer said it would sell a part of its acreage in the Haynesville Shale area for $450 million to a private company.

(Reporting by Yashaswini Swamynathan in Bengaluru; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila)

Leaner and meaner: U.S. shale greater threat to OPEC after oil price war

Pumpjacks and other infrastructure for producing oil dot fields outside of Watford City, North Dakota,

By Catherine Ngai and Ernest Scheyder

NEW YORK/HOUSTON (Reuters) – In a corner of the prolific Bakken shale play in North Dakota, oil companies can now pump crude at a price almost as low as that enjoyed by OPEC giants Iran and Iraq.

Until a few years ago it was unprofitable to produce oil from shale in the United States. But the steep slide in costs has U.S. shale operators poised to capitalize on Wednesday’s decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to cap output for the first time in eight years.

In effect, even as OPEC has decided to reduce output to try to boost prices, that may end up being undermined by a potential increase in U.S. production.

OPEC ministers agreed to reduce production by around 1.2 million barrels per day, bringing an end to a free-for-all drilling era that saw global oil prices fall by more than half in the last two years.

In shale fields from Texas to North Dakota, production costs have roughly halved since 2014, when Saudi Arabia signaled a price war in an attempt to drive higher-cost shale producers out of the market.

Rather than killing the U.S. shale industry, the ensuing two-year price war made shale a stronger rival, even in the current low-price environment.

In Dunn County, North Dakota, there are around 2,000 square miles where the cost to produce Bakken shale is $15 a barrel and falling, according to Lynn Helms, head of the state’s Department of Mineral Resources.

“The success in Dunn County has been fantastic,” said Ron Ness, president of the North Dakota Petroleum Council.

Dunn County’s cost is about the same as Iran’s, and a little higher than Iraq’s. Dunn County produces about 200,000 barrels of oil per day, about a fifth of daily production in the state.

It is North Dakota’s sweet spot because it boasts the lowest costs in the state, yet improved technology and drilling techniques have boosted efficiency for the whole state and the entire U.S. oil industry.

The breakeven cost per barrel, on average, to produce Bakken shale at the wellhead has fallen to $29.44 in 2016 from $59.03 in 2014, according to consultancy Rystad Energy. It added that in terms of wellhead prices, Bakken is the most competitive of major U.S. shale plays.

Wood Mackenzie said technology advances should further reduce breakeven points.

Landlocked Bakken producers still need a substantially higher international price than their breakeven cost to make a profit, since they pay more to transport crude to market than producers in most other U.S. regions.

International oil prices of $45 a barrel are enough for some Bakken producers to profit, Ness said, and $55 would encourage production growth.

Benchmark Brent futures plummeted from nearly $116 a barrel in mid-2014 to just $27 earlier this year. Prices recovered to nearly $46 before the OPEC deal. That was still too low for members of the OPEC, whose state budgets depend on petrodollar revenues that plummeted during the price war.

OPEC has been concerned that an output cut would encourage a quick response from U.S. shale producers, who have slashed costs and have been steadily adding drilling rigs.

“Right now, OPEC understands we’re in a push-and-pull experiment with the United States,” said Michael Tran, director of energy strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York.

“Two years ago, we thought prices hovering around $50 to $60 meant that non-OPEC production growth would end. But U.S. production came back stronger.”

In its last earnings call, Hess Corp said it has improved its cost performance in the Bakken, with well costs falling and initial production rates rising, though it did not give more details.

“Everybody is drilling wells faster and completing them better,” said Mike Breard, an energy stock analyst at Hodges Capital Management in Dallas. “It’s not just a Bakken phenomenon.”

Breard said he prefers shale stocks in the Permian basin in Texas, where he is expecting more big gains in production next year. He is eyeing firms such as Parsley Energy Inc, Ring Energy Inc and Matador Resources Co.

Oil companies are already investing big money to benefit from shale’s resurgence. Tesoro Corp recently snapped up Western Refining Inc in a $4 billion deal to bulk up its exposure in Texas.

Separately, trading firm Castleton Commodities International LLC bought more than $1 billion in assets from Anadarko Petroleum Corp to increase its stake in East Texas.

Occidental Petroleum Corp’s top executive recently said that company has enjoyed steady improvement in well productivity and lower drilling and completion costs in the Permian Basin.

“Simply put, we can deliver more production with fewer wells,” Vicki Hollub, the company’s president and chief executive, told analysts on a call.

(Additional reporting by Lewis Krauskopf in New York; editing by Simon Webb and Marguerita Choy)

OPEC officials debate thorny issue of how to implement supply cut

By Alex Lawler

VIENNA (Reuters) – OPEC officials began talks in Vienna on Friday aimed at working out details of their oil supply-cut agreement, which they concede is looking more complicated by the day.

The meeting of the High Level Committee is comprised mainly of OPEC governors and national representatives – officials who report to their respective ministers. Talks were continuing five hours after they started at 10 a.m. local time (0400 ET).

Last month in Algiers, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to reduce production of crude oil to a range of 32.50 million to 33.0 million barrels per day, its first output cut since 2008, to prop up prices.

The deal faces potential setbacks from Iraq’s call for it to be exempt and from countries including Iran, Libya and Nigeria whose output has been hit by sanctions or conflict and want to raise supply.

“It is getting complicated,” an OPEC delegate said before the meeting began on Friday. “Every day there is a new issue coming up.”

Even so, other OPEC officials including Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo have said they are optimistic a final deal will be reached.

“Our deliberations today – and tomorrow with some non-OPEC producers – could very well have fundamental ramifications for the market, as well as for the medium to long term of the industry,” Barkindo said in a speech at the meeting, according to a text provided by OPEC.

The committee does not decide policy and will instead make recommendations to the next OPEC ministerial meeting on Nov. 30, also in Vienna.

How much each of the 14 OPEC members will produce is one of the matters the committee is examining.

Iraq, OPEC’s No. 2 producer, said this week that it would not cut output and should be exempted from any curbs as it needs funds to fight Islamic State.

Baghdad’s stance is likely to face opposition from other OPEC members, an OPEC source said on Friday. Riyadh and its Gulf OPEC allies do not agree with Iraq’s view, sources said on Thursday.

The meeting is scheduled to continue for a second day on Saturday when representatives from non-OPEC nations, which OPEC wants to curb supplies as well, will also attend.

Non-OPEC nations sending representatives to Saturday’s talks are Russia, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Oman, Azerbaijan, Brazil and Bolivia.

(Reporting by Alex Lawler; Editing by Dale Hudson)

Oil rises above $50 a barrel on OPEC cut comments

A pump jack operates at a well site leased by Devon Energy Production Company near Guthrie, Oklahoma

By Alex Lawler

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil edged above $50 a barrel on Thursday, drawing support from sources’ comments that OPEC’s Gulf members are willing to cut their output by 4 percent and from a further drop in U.S. crude inventories.

Saudi Arabia and its Gulf OPEC allies are willing to make that reduction from their peak oil output, energy ministers from the Gulf countries told their Russian counterpart this week, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

“That seems to be the reason behind the price move,” said Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank. “But the big question is, how will they handle Iraq.”

Brent crude was up 38 cents at $50.36 a barrel as of 0948 ET, having risen as high as $50.67 intra-day. U.S. crude gained 28 cents to $49.46.

Oil also drew support from the unexpected drop in U.S. crude inventories, and larger than expected falls in stocks of gasoline and distillates, reported this week, which raised hopes that a long-awaited market rebalancing is finally under way.

“The global stock overhang must be reduced in order to see higher prices. Whilst such reduction is largely in the hand of OPEC, the re-balancing is already taking place in the U.S.,” Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM said.

The market was keeping an eye on escalating protests in Venezuela against the rule of President Nicolas Maduro, although there was no sign of any impact on the OPEC member’s oil output. Venezuelan production has been falling this year as low prices hit investment.

Doubts about the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ supply cut deal have been weighing on the market this week.

OPEC agreed last month its first deal to restrain output in eight years to boost prices. But Iraq on Sunday called for Baghdad to be exempt, adding to the list of members seeking special treatment.

A technical meeting at OPEC’s headquarters on Friday, and with officials from non-OPEC countries on Saturday, is supposed to come up with recommendations on how to implement the supply cutback to the oil ministers’ next meeting on Nov. 30.

The OPEC plan is designed to speed up the removal of a supply glut that is keeping oil prices at less than half their level of mid-2014, cutting exporters’ income and leading to investment cuts by oil companies worldwide.

(Additonal reporting by Henning Gloystein; Editing by William Hardy

Oil Prices rise on U.S. weather fears

View of gasoline pumps at a petrol station in Paris in Paris, France,

By Ahmad Ghaddar

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil futures rose on Tuesday supported by production suspensions in the U.S. Gulf due to an expected tropical storm and speculation that producers meeting in Algeria next month will act to prop up prices.

Brent crude futures were trading at $49.58 per barrel at 1358 GMT (0958 EDT), up 32 cents from the previous close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 39 cents at $47.37 a barrel.

Oil and gas operators in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico have shut output equal to 168,334 barrels per day (bpd) of oil and 190 million cubic feet per day of natural gas as a precaution against a tropical storm, the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said on Monday.

Shell said it had shut production at its Coulomb field in the region after BP shut its Na Kika platform ahead of Tropical Depression Nine.

Oil prices have also been taking direction from speculation that a meeting next month in Algeria of major producers, including members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, could yield a production deal to support prices.

“Prices are still finding support from the expectations of an agreement on production caps being reached at the late-September meeting,” Commerzbank said in a note.

Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih told Reuters last week he does not believe an intervention in oil markets is necessary since the “market is moving in the right direction”.

Iraq – which exported more crude this month from its southern ports than in July – will continue ramping up output, its oil minister said on Saturday.

A Nigerian militant group has said it has ended attacks on the nation’s oil and gas industry that have reduced the OPEC member’s output by 700,000 barrels a day to 1.56 million bpd.

But the prospect of a recovery in oil production from Libya happening any time soon was tempered after the head of the country’s National Oil Corp. said budgetary delays from the new government were undermining oil production.

“Oil prices are caught between concerns about oversupply and a strong dollar on the one hand and the prospect of further jawboning from OPEC members that some form of production freeze could be on the cards,” CMC Markets senior analyst Michael Hewson said.

The huge global oil oversupply that has weighed on prices for the past two years may not clear until the second half of 2017, Shell’s chief energy adviser Wim Thomas told Reuters.

(Additional reporting by Roslan Khasawneh in Singapore; editing by Jon Boyle)

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